Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 336017 times)

Offline darkenfast

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Maybe I've missed it, but have there been any attempts to image the third stage or ascertain if it is tumbling too?  Not sure how that would help, I'm just curious.  Or does it start tumbling after separation, anyway?

Offline Jim

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I can't figure out why the mid section thrusters cannot be used with this prop to control Progress, unless my assumption is wrong, and even the mid section was impacted by the separation event.


They are for translation control and not rotation control

Offline the_other_Doug

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Maybe I've missed it, but have there been any attempts to image the third stage or ascertain if it is tumbling too?  Not sure how that would help, I'm just curious.  Or does it start tumbling after separation, anyway?

My understanding is that the third stage is in a bunch of pieces -- more than 40, if the skin tracking is accurate.  And has been since orbital insertion.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline darkenfast

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Maybe I've missed it, but have there been any attempts to image the third stage or ascertain if it is tumbling too?  Not sure how that would help, I'm just curious.  Or does it start tumbling after separation, anyway?

My understanding is that the third stage is in a bunch of pieces -- more than 40, if the skin tracking is accurate.  And has been since orbital insertion.

I knew about the pieces, but I thought it was pieces that were associated with the third stage, not pieces that were all that was left of the third stage.

Online gwiz

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The third stage re-entered a day after launch, some of the fragments were longer-lived.

Offline Prober

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Maybe I've missed it, but have there been any attempts to image the third stage or ascertain if it is tumbling too?  Not sure how that would help, I'm just curious.  Or does it start tumbling after separation, anyway?

My understanding is that the third stage is in a bunch of pieces -- more than 40, if the skin tracking is accurate.  And has been since orbital insertion.

not sure If its just the 3rd stage parts and maybe some Progress parts in there.

ok, let's focus on this then; do we know how large these 40 pieces are?  We might then be able get an idea where were these parts were located.

Anyway we go, this has been its very educational, and interesting.

Edit; poorly written

« Last Edit: 05/06/2015 09:21 PM by Prober »
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Offline Danderman

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The third stage re-entered a day after launch, some of the fragments were longer-lived.

If the third stage overperformed, why would it re-enter as quickly as third stages that perform nominally?

Offline meekGee

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The third stage re-entered a day after launch, some of the fragments were longer-lived.
If that's true, then something made it reenter early. 

Either there's an automatic action like propellant vent that happens on a timer, or this is a good hint there was some sort of explosion.
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Offline jcm

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The third stage re-entered a day after launch, some of the fragments were longer-lived.
If that's true, then something made it reenter early. 

Either there's an automatic action like propellant vent that happens on a timer, or this is a good hint there was some sort of explosion.

1 day is actually quite normal for the third stage. However, I do note that space-track tags the radar cross section
of object B as 'small', while the third stage would normally be 'large', so it's just possible B is not actually the main part of the third stage. These RCS categories aren't very reliable though.
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re.: Radar-cross section. Is there any kind of thermal lining to the LOX tanks that would make debris fragments from the tanks look larger on radar (due to very high RF reflection) than they actually are? I'm thinking about how shiny the Merlin-1d-VAC's expansion nozzle looks at infra-red-frequencies, far more than at optical.
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Offline Danderman

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1 day is actually quite normal for the third stage. However, I do note that space-track tags the radar cross section
of object B as 'small', while the third stage would normally be 'large', so it's just possible B is not actually the main part of the third stage. These RCS categories aren't very reliable though.

Just to be clear, my point was that the initial reports were that the third stage overperformed, and generated 12 m/s extra velocity; if that were the case, why would the third stage orbit for this flight decay as quickly as any other Soyuz third stage?

Offline asmi

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From discussion on NK forum, it seems that LV TM has confirmed nominal RD-0110 engine shutdown - drop of fuel pressure at combustion chamber valves has been confirmed which all but prevents engine from running.

Offline meekGee

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The third stage re-entered a day after launch, some of the fragments were longer-lived.
If that's true, then something made it reenter early. 

Either there's an automatic action like propellant vent that happens on a timer, or this is a good hint there was some sort of explosion.

1 day is actually quite normal for the third stage. However, I do note that space-track tags the radar cross section
of object B as 'small', while the third stage would normally be 'large', so it's just possible B is not actually the main part of the third stage. These RCS categories aren't very reliable though.
Sure.  I don't know what's normal, but the stage and fragments should have had similar starting trajectories.  The stage contains large masses, but also an empty tank.  fragments can be anything, depending on what generated them.  In my mind, it is more likely that they'll be lightweight.
« Last Edit: 05/04/2015 01:55 PM by meekGee »
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Offline kevin-rf

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1 day is actually quite normal for the third stage. However, I do note that space-track tags the radar cross section
of object B as 'small', while the third stage would normally be 'large', so it's just possible B is not actually the main part of the third stage. These RCS categories aren't very reliable though.
Or maybe the largest fragment of what was left of the third stage...
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Offline hrissan

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More comments by alex moskalenko http://alex-moskalenko.livejournal.com/486247.html#comments

Quote
We have descent quality telemetry

We are sure it was not spacecraft malfunction

Spacecraft tank pressurization starts at the separation signal, takes ~30 seconds

Computer did not turn on engines (thrusters?) because of spacecraft condition

We tried to use thrusters in an attempt to null the angular speed, but the momentum from fuel leaking out from the lines with 12 atm pressure was stronger!

We had 1400kg fuel initially, how much left is now irrelevant

Offline Star One

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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Progress re-entry prediction.

http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2-2/2015-024a/

That's not as easy as I thought it would be to interpret. Is the pink bar the 'median' point at the centre of the re-entry uncertainty field?
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Offline jgoldader

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Progress re-entry prediction.

http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/upcoming-reentries-2-2/2015-024a/

That's not as easy as I thought it would be to interpret. Is the pink bar the 'median' point at the centre of the re-entry uncertainty field?

The way I read it, the width of the bar is the "diameter" of the visibility region.  The important take-away is that with the uncertainty of +/- 31 hours, it could hit basically anywhere between the north and south limits.
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Offline kevin-rf

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Looks like the USS Lake Erie is out of action for a shoot down. The boat just got in trouble over it's mascot. http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2015/04/30/navy-cruiser-lake-erie-goat-san-diego/26568241/
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Offline JimO

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The later the decay, the more massive the object. This drift in predicted decay is trying to tell us something about how much propellant is still on board?

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