Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 343649 times)

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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New article on Tass.
http://tass.ru/en/non-political/792434

Interesting. Chemical Automatics Design Bureau, the manufacturer of the RD-0110 used on the Soyuz-2-1A third stage, are blaming the Soyuz' control system. They added that their own analysis is that the engine was running at higher-than-nominal power throughout the flight. The latter may explain the greater than expected apogee.

That CADB felt that they had to make this statement suggests that, behind the scenes, the finger is beginning to point at the Soyuz third stage as the primary cause. This makes a re-contact with Progress as being the cause of the debris field more likely.

Basically, the blame game has begun.
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Offline JimO

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What are the addition risk of an uncontrolled re-entry? No parts will survive regardless? No threat to people if it happens over land?

The risks are non-zero, or Russia would dump them over its own territory instead of the south Pacific, but for a single event probably no more than the risks of random booster third stage reentries, which occur frequently, have never hurt anybody, and mostly just cause UFO reports.

Offline JimO

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Progress M-12M more or less went through re-entry during its aborted launch, and some pieces reportedly hit the ground, but not much.

I'd be cautious in generalizing this since the impact zone was mountainous [recall the photos?] and probably less than 1% of the ground was actually searched.

Offline Danderman

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Well that info leaves three paths to follow:
1) collided with Blok-I because stage burned to depletion and did not perform CCAM
2) Progress Prop system over pressurized and exploded
3) Progress is spinning so fast that the angular momentum shed debris from the SC.

I am not familiar with Blok-I having the capability of a CCAM.

I have always been told that separation of Progress from Blok-I was a fairly simple event after Blok-I shuts down.

One possibility would be an off-nominal explosive bolt event - if one of the bolts required for separation did not operate correctly, bad things could happen.

On another topic who is the designer and manufacturer of the Blok-I control system?
« Last Edit: 04/29/2015 01:26 PM by Danderman »

Offline Danderman

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Progress M-12M more or less went through re-entry during its aborted launch, and some pieces reportedly hit the ground, but not much.

I'd be cautious in generalizing this since the impact zone was mountainous [recall the photos?] and probably less than 1% of the ground was actually searched.

Let me remind everyone that Progress were routinely de-orbited over land back in the days of the Raduga capsule.


And ... Soyuz spacecraft re-enter over land, and only the descent module makes a controlled landing. Everything else burns up over the ground track - after over 100 missions there is no record of any part of a Soyuz PAO making it to the ground intact.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2015 01:29 PM by Danderman »

Online woods170

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Just got word from my sources at NLR, thru their contacts at ESA-ISS, that Roscosmos has declared Progress M-27M a total loss. There will be no furter attempts to regain control. No updates on cause of this failure.

Offline jcm

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Tweaked translation

First Quote
"At the end of insertion, were rocket TLM (telemetry)and VTI received?"

Second Quote
"Dropped out  3 seconds before GK-3"

Third Quote
"Someone here in Samara already said that  confirmation of GK3 was received. How could it have been received, if TM malfunctioned?"

Fourth Quote
Well, but this is still the information (?) 
I guess it was due to the AVD  (Engine emergency shutdown system) during the 3rd stage burn
A look at the telemetry parameters and it will become clear.


Can someone translate this piece of Russian on NK? Seems to be something about losing telemetry from the Soyuz 3rd stage in the final 3 seconds of ascent?  :o

Okay, I'll give it a shot, thanks to Google Translate:
 
-----------------------------

Jonathan McDowell
http://planet4589.org

Offline jcm

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No TLEs, at least so far, for the 44 debris objects tracked by JSPOC.
That's not uncommon - for debris found in low orbit just after launch that reenters almost right away they sometimes don't bother cataloging, or catalog it retrospectively some time later without any actual TLE orbit data, just decay dates.

-----------------------------

Jonathan McDowell
http://planet4589.org

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Just got word from my sources at NLR, thru their contacts at ESA-ISS, that Roscosmos has declared Progress M-27M a total loss. There will be no furter attempts to regain control. No updates on cause of this failure.

This was reported by Russian sources a few hours ago, but it seems to have been refuted just now.
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Online Chris Bergin

NASA not in a LOM stance yet, but they won't be leading on such declarations for this. Obviously this is where it's all heading.

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Tweaked translation

First Quote
"At the end of insertion, were rocket TLM (telemetry)and VTI received?"

Second Quote
"Dropped out  3 seconds before GK-3"

Third Quote
"Someone here in Samara already said that  confirmation of GK3 was received. How could it have been received, if TM malfunctioned?"

Fourth Quote
Well, but this is still the information (?) 
I guess it was due to the AVD  (Engine emergency shutdown system) during the 3rd stage burn
A look at the telemetry parameters and it will become clear.


Can someone translate this piece of Russian on NK? Seems to be something about losing telemetry from the Soyuz 3rd stage in the final 3 seconds of ascent?  :o

Okay, I'll give it a shot, thanks to Google Translate:
 

So my interpretation is correct - GK-3 apparently refers to the 3rd stage shutdown command.
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Online Oersted

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Tvanks for the info woods. With this latest failure the Soviet legacy hardware systems are looking less reliable than they were just a few years ago, and lets face it, reliability was the main thing they had going for them.

Online woods170

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Just got word from my sources at NLR, thru their contacts at ESA-ISS, that Roscosmos has declared Progress M-27M a total loss. There will be no furter attempts to regain control. No updates on cause of this failure.

This was reported by Russian sources a few hours ago, but it seems to have been refuted just now.
Possibly, but I only report what I hear from contacts within the industry. I try to avoid the general Russian news media. When concerning Russian spaceflight the official news from Roscosmos usually takes many hours to percolate down to sub-contractor levels. So, what was just told to me by NLR is information that is likely multiple hours old. If anything changed in between that period, then I will here that from my contacts later.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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According to N2YO, Progress-59 will overfly Cape Canaveral in a few minutes. Are there any assets there that could help assess the situation?
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Offline JimO

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Progress M-12M more or less went through re-entry during its aborted launch, and some pieces reportedly hit the ground, but not much.

I'd be cautious in generalizing this since the impact zone was mountainous [recall the photos?] and probably less than 1% of the ground was actually searched.

Let me remind everyone that Progress were routinely de-orbited over land back in the days of the Raduga capsule.


And ... Soyuz spacecraft re-enter over land, and only the descent module makes a controlled landing. Everything else burns up over the ground track - after over 100 missions there is no record of any part of a Soyuz PAO making it to the ground intact.


Excellent points.

Offline russianhalo117

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Well that info leaves three paths to follow:
1) collided with Blok-I because stage burned to depletion and did not perform CCAM
2) Progress Prop system over pressurized and exploded
3) Progress is spinning so fast that the angular momentum shed debris from the SC.

I am not familiar with Blok-I having the capability of a CCAM.

I have always been told that separation of Progress from Blok-I was a fairly simple event after Blok-I shuts down.

One possibility would be an off-nominal explosive bolt event - if one of the bolts required for separation did not operate correctly, bad things could happen.

On another topic who is the designer and manufacturer of the Blok-I control system?

CCAM is done via pryo valves in Ozidizer tank (in location mast umbilicals are connected and filled and drained) followed by pressure blow down on all remaining tanks. operation is similar to Ariane 5 first stage at sep.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2015 02:31 PM by russianhalo117 »

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Anybody got any idea where this thing is going to impact?

The estimated orbital decay window is still days long so, potentially, any point of Earth inside the orbital inclination is a potential impact spot. We'll probably know with a little more assurance towards the end of next week.
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The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Roscosmos is having a press briefing right now:

« Last Edit: 04/30/2015 07:12 AM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

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Apparently in that press briefing Roscosmos chief Komarov reported that the (main?) engine of Progress had depressurized (!), and that telemetry from the spacecraft ceased 1.5 seconds before S/C separation from rocket third stage. He said that because of that docking to ISS is impossible and controlled de-orbit is under consideration.

Damn!  :-X

Source: http://tass.ru/kosmos/1941163
« Last Edit: 04/29/2015 02:44 PM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline Danderman

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Apparently in that press briefing Roscosmos chief Komarov reported that the (main?) engine of Progress had depressurized (!), and that telemetry from the spacecraft ceased 1.5 seconds before S/C separation from rocket third stage. He said that because of that docking to ISS is impossible and controlled de-orbit is under consideration.

Damn!  :-X

Source: http://tass.ru/kosmos/1941163

How exactly did TsUP get the solar panel deployed signal if telemetry ceased before spacecraft separation?

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