Author Topic: MISSION FAILURE: Progress M-27M launch Soyuz-2-1A - April 28, 2015  (Read 343972 times)

Offline JimO

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Using MCC-H rule of thumb "10:1 rule", two satellites with 'H' diff in average altitude will have position shift of 10xH per rev.

Conclusion -- Progress has probably already underflown ISS and will lap it every day and a half or so.

Was crew asked to look?

Offline Graham

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Does anybody know how far under the station it was? I would think it would be pretty hard to see...
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https://twitter.com/chronsciguy/status/593063894295269377

Quote
Eric Berger ‏@chronsciguy 19m19 minutes ago

In regard to Progress vehicle issue, am told even if there's a problem with the next SpaceX launch ISS crew has ample consumable reserves.

So no need for the crew to start packing their bags yet!

That's clearly not the point that was made. If there's a problem with the next Dragon, then Dragon is stood down. That's the problem....not the vehicle failing to arrive, but the vehicle being stuck on the ground for a lengthy period of time before being able to launch again.

Offline Targeteer

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NASA commentator said a short time ago the Progress was 4000km ahead of the ISS.  Next Russian ground station pass is at 8:50 PM Houston time tonight.  Any bets on whether the Progress will still have power at that time?
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline russianhalo117

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Does this version of Soyuz employ the RD-0110 or the RD-0124 for 3rd stage propulsion?  Implications for the manned version are obvious if gear is common.

RD- 0124 I believe. Of course, even if the problem wasn't with the third stage, the Soyuz still employs the same KURS system as Progress as well as other similarities across the board. I would therefore guess that there will be repercussions with the Soyuz as well.
no that engine is on 2.1b and ST-B only this flight flew on 2.1a.
Spin rate was induced around sep after engine cutoff. Separation system would have started it and Progress deployments accelerated it is a good theory based on the data to date.

Offline russianhalo117

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NASA commentator said a short time ago the Progress was 4000km ahead of the ISS.  Next Russian ground station pass is at 8:50 PM Houston time tonight.  Any bets on whether the Progress will still have power at that time?
less than 50% likely unless they power stuff down. The progress is not solartracking yet because its in a multi axis spin.

Offline Prober

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https://twitter.com/chronsciguy/status/593063894295269377

Quote
Eric Berger ‏@chronsciguy 19m19 minutes ago

In regard to Progress vehicle issue, am told even if there's a problem with the next SpaceX launch ISS crew has ample consumable reserves.

So no need for the crew to start packing their bags yet!

That's clearly not the point that was made. If there's a problem with the next Dragon, then Dragon is stood down. That's the problem....not the vehicle failing to arrive, but the vehicle being stuck on the ground for a lengthy period of time before being able to launch again.

The first question I would ask: are the employees being paid?    If employees are worried about their bills at home etc. they can't focus on their jobs and mistakes happen.   It's a fair question no?
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Offline eeergo

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This seems new on M-27M, anybody ?

Speculation: did it make contact during sep. ? (therefor inducing a spin ?)

EDIT:
should have been more clear, it was a two part question, first anybody know what that new antenna (?) it is not on 26M, and second, contact anywhere in general during sep, or upper stage issue (BBQ roll etc.)

Looks like a modified version (new white insulation, slightly different shape) for Kurs-NA's AO-753A antenna that was flown in M-21M (*this may instead be the Otrazhenye experiment as reported by Nicolas!). This Progress also appears to have the 2AO-VKA (the small, retractable antenna that needed to be EVA-removed in M-58) from Kurs-A as a backup. See attached images for clarity.

PS: Let's remember M-21M's automatic approach with the Kurs-NA was aborted at 53 m and Kotov TORU'd it home. Previously, the first version of Kurs-NA had been tested for the undocking-redocking approach during M-15M's mission and that had been successful.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2015 05:20 PM by eeergo »
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Offline Space Pete

That's clearly not the point that was made. If there's a problem with the next Dragon, then Dragon is stood down. That's the problem....not the vehicle failing to arrive, but the vehicle being stuck on the ground for a lengthy period of time before being able to launch again.

Exactly - the crew is fine now, and would be for a good few months even in the event of a Dragon failure, but if Dragon/F9 failed and had to be stood down for a number of months, and Cygnus RTF got delayed (which I suspect it will - since when does anything go to schedule in this business), then that will leave only one HTV to resupply ISS for rest of year. Even with Progress flying, that would make things tight.

Essentially, what I'm saying is that ISS is now zero fault tolerant to another resupply craft failure - with ATV gone, Cygnus' failure last year, today's Progress failure, and only one HTV this year, a Dragon failure would essentially cut ISS' regular supply line to Earth. If they couldn't get it back quickly, that would be the issue.
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Offline RonM

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https://twitter.com/chronsciguy/status/593063894295269377

Quote
Eric Berger ‏@chronsciguy 19m19 minutes ago

In regard to Progress vehicle issue, am told even if there's a problem with the next SpaceX launch ISS crew has ample consumable reserves.

So no need for the crew to start packing their bags yet!

That's clearly not the point that was made. If there's a problem with the next Dragon, then Dragon is stood down. That's the problem....not the vehicle failing to arrive, but the vehicle being stuck on the ground for a lengthy period of time before being able to launch again.

The first question I would ask: are the employees being paid?    If employees are worried about their bills at home etc. they can't focus on their jobs and mistakes happen.   It's a fair question no?

Yes, that is a fair question. As you pointed out, if the employees can't focus on their jobs then mistakes can happen.

Of course, that is just another point of speculation that can be added to the list of possible causes such as faulty parts, damage during launch, etc.

Offline Patchouli

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The first question I would ask: are the employees being paid?    If employees are worried about their bills at home etc. they can't focus on their jobs and mistakes happen.   It's a fair question no?


Good question another issue could be their working hours be too long because they're trying to make do with fewer workers to cut costs or too many have been diverted to other projects.
Try to get too much from too few workers by having them put in 70 and 80 hour weeks for too long will drive up mistakes.

« Last Edit: 04/28/2015 04:15 PM by Patchouli »

Online Chris Bergin

I wouldn't get too hung up on that. We need to find out what's gone wrong.....and that's likely no sooner than tomorrow (due to passes over Russian Ground Stations).

Offline PahTo

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Spin rate was induced around sep after engine cutoff. Separation system would have started it and Progress deployments accelerated it is a good theory based on the data to date.

Thanks for this, and parsing the available data--I concur with your assessment that the spin was induced after s/c sep (despite report of anomalous 3rd stage performance).  Could be the sep event, or the thrusters on the Progress service module.  Again, both of which I believe are common components across the entire Soyuz family.

Offline rds100

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Didn't they have Luch satellites to be able to communicate with the spacecrafts from above?

Offline russianhalo117

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Didn't they have Luch satellites to be able to communicate with the spacecrafts from above?

Capability only select Progress M-M vehicles for testing and this feature will only be operational AFAIK on Progress MS and Soyuz MS starting with Progress MS's first flight this October 2015 barring schedule change.

EDIT: Corrected my spelling
« Last Edit: 04/28/2015 04:40 PM by russianhalo117 »

Online Nicolas PILLET

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This seems new on M-27M, anybody ?

Speculation: did it make contact during sep. ? (therefor inducing a spin ?)

EDIT:
should have been more clear, it was a two part question, first anybody know what that new antenna (?) it is not on 26M, and second, contact anywhere in general during sep, or upper stage issue (BBQ roll etc.)

This is Otrazhenye experiment. No relation with the current problems.
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Online Chris Bergin

Garrett Reisman
‏@astro_g_dogg Garrett Reisman retweeted Chris B - NSF
This looks bad. Could be a GNC, Prop, Avionics, or Software problem. Hopefully will find out exactly what happened. 

Offline Rebel44

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If they are unable to get sufficient data for root cause analysys, how long would this vehicle be grounded?

Online AnalogMan

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That's clearly not the point that was made. If there's a problem with the next Dragon, then Dragon is stood down. That's the problem....not the vehicle failing to arrive, but the vehicle being stuck on the ground for a lengthy period of time before being able to launch again.

Exactly - the crew is fine now, and would be for a good few months even in the event of a Dragon failure, but if Dragon/F9 failed and had to be stood down for a number of months, and Cygnus RTF got delayed (which I suspect it will - since when does anything go to schedule in this business), then that will leave only one HTV to resupply ISS for rest of year. Even with Progress flying, that would make things tight.

Essentially, what I'm saying is that ISS is now zero fault tolerant to another resupply craft failure - with ATV gone, Cygnus' failure last year, today's Progress failure, and only one HTV this year, a Dragon failure would essentially cut ISS' regular supply line to Earth. If they couldn't get it back quickly, that would be the issue.

Just to confirm current ISS consumables status (columns 3 & 4 now that SpX-6 has arrived).

[KTO = Russian Solid Waste Container]
« Last Edit: 04/28/2015 04:51 PM by AnalogMan »

Offline asmi

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If they are unable to get sufficient data for root cause analysys, how long would this vehicle be grounded?
They will probably just launch another one and see what happens :D

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