Author Topic: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016  (Read 2863 times)

Offline Prober

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Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« on: 08/02/2014 04:22 PM »
http://izvestia.ru/news/574691
This conclusion follows from the budget projections for the coming years

Читайте далее: http://izvestia.ru/news/574691#ixzz39Fi7sLpl

The translation is not clear what's happening, maybe someone can add to the understanding.
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Offline PahTo

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #1 on: 08/02/2014 04:43 PM »

I have a hard time imagining Soyuz and Proton NOT flying from Baikonur, but of course there's Plesetsk and some other domestic options...

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/centers.html

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #2 on: 08/02/2014 08:30 PM »

I have a hard time imagining Soyuz and Proton NOT flying from Baikonur, but of course there's Plesetsk and some other domestic options...

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/centers.html
Soyuz-2 family will be operational in Vostonchy very soon with pad concreting to be done this month and MST gantry partway assembled and joint Angara/Start/Soyuz MIK launcher and spacecraft processing and integration complex almost done that will officially replace the original Svobodny Cosmodrome facilites. Also surveying for a second Soyuz pad was completed earlier this year and is reserved to be built when higher demand necessitates its construction The Cosmodrome should be ready to begin flight by Mid to end of 2015 because construction is mostly ahead of schedule in all areas. Vostonchy should be ready for full launch pace at beginning of 2016 and Angara preps have started and should be finished before 2020. Also second pad at Plesetsk's Site 35 dubbed 35/2 will also be finished before end of 2020 and clearing of timber for that project has already started. So all launch operations at Baikonur will no longer be needed because they will be more than redundant by 2020.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #3 on: 08/02/2014 10:44 PM »
Progress could be launching from Vostonchy by 2017, I guess. But Soyuz really can't launch from there, as I understand it. So they either are pretty sure that they'll be able to launch PTK/Angara 5P from Vostonchy, or they better keep paying for Baikonour.

Offline VDD1991

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #4 on: 08/03/2014 07:30 PM »
With the Soyuz 2 planned to replace the Semyorka-derived Soyuz-U and Soyuz-FG rockets, and the fact that the Proton is to be replaced by the Angara 5, the question is whether Roskosmos may be inclined dismantle some of the remaining facilities at Baikonur to save money.

Online Kryten

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #5 on: 08/03/2014 08:09 PM »
 Soyuz-2 isn't any less 'Semyorka-derived' then -U or FG; Soyuz 2.1A only has a new flight computer, and 2.1B only that and an upgraded upper-stage engine. Soyuz 2.1V may have significant differences, granted, but it's not a replacement for any previous variant (wrong size class), and still uses the same launch facilities.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #6 on: 08/04/2014 12:00 AM »
This must have to do with payments to Kazakstan, either there is an issue with the lease, or someone wants more money.  Such pronouncements come every once in a while but nothing happens.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #7 on: 08/04/2014 02:08 AM »

This must have to do with payments to Kazakstan, either there is an issue with the lease, or someone wants more money.  Such pronouncements come every once in a while but nothing happens.
Or, as the Russians are actually executing an exit strategy, they want to pay less. Haggling goes both ways.

Offline Phosphorus

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #8 on: 08/05/2014 10:41 AM »
Besides true haggling and brinkmanship, there are also domestic politics both parties have to attend to -- e.g. Kazakhstan has to show its citizens it's working on less hypergols and hypergol-contaminated stages falling on their heads, and Russia has to demonstrate how it's becoming less dependent on external providers, etc.
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Offline Danderman

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #9 on: 08/05/2014 02:40 PM »
The amazing thing is how little effort Kazakhstan is putting into keeping Baikonur afloat after the Russians leave. There was talk of keeping Zenit flying from Baikonur, but nothing much is happening there.

Offline Zardar

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #10 on: 08/05/2014 06:43 PM »
I don't think russia can close Baikonur until they have:
1) Staff and infrastructure to support about 12 launches of Soyuz and Angara each in Vostochny,
2) Demonstrated reliability of Angara in launching GEO payloads (for military),
3) Demonstrated ability of launching manned missions from Vostochny,
4) 2 Soyuz Pads in Vostochny (for redundancy/capacity),
5) 2 Angara Pads in Vostochny (for redundancy/capacity)

Any talk of pulling out from Baikonur  in the near term, until that capability is in place, is just hot air.

The 3 extra pads will probably take 2 years each to complete, so 2020 is a reasonable timeline.

Kazakhstan does have 2 other extreme choices they could play:
1) Ramp up the rent in the next few years to try and maximize short term gains, given that Russia would have no other means of effectively launching Manned/GEO missions.
2) Offer the Baikonur  rent-free, and at least keep the ancillary spending and employment in Kazakhstan  for a longer period. But I doubt that Russia would build an Angara pad in Baikonur at this stage anyhow.










Online William Graham

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Re: Baikonur funding may cease in 2016
« Reply #11 on: 08/11/2014 06:29 PM »
http://izvestia.ru/news/574691
This conclusion follows from the budget projections for the coming years

Читайте далее: http://izvestia.ru/news/574691#ixzz39Fi7sLpl

The translation is not clear what's happening, maybe someone can add to the understanding.


I suspect its either just posturing or media speculation. Manned Soyuz can't launch from Vostochny because, if I remember correctly, there would be issues recovering the spacecraft in the event of a launch abort. I also strongly doubt that Angara will be able to build up a decent enough launch rate to replace Proton completely within that timescale.