Author Topic: Sea Launch Future  (Read 64648 times)

Online edkyle99

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Sea Launch Future
« on: 02/24/2014 07:58 PM »
I'm getting a sense that change is coming.  Here's today's news:
http://www.sea-launch.com/news-q11393-Sea_Launch_AG_Announces_Departure_of_President.aspx

Also recently came this report that the Russian government is thinking about taking over Sea Launch and moving it to a Russian port.
http://www.spacenews.com/article/financial-report/39579russian-government-mulls-takeover-of-sea-launch

Sea Launch is already 95% owned by Russia's RSC Energia, and, of course there is the Boeing lawsuit against the current Sea Launch owners for $450 million or so.  This August 2013 update describes how Yuzhnoye's motion to dismiss was denied.   
http://cdn.lettersblogatory.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/gov.uscourts.cacd_.553545.122.0.pdf

Sea Launch only has two launches currently on its manifest.  The first is coming soon.  The second is in 2016.  Obviously that's a big gap. 

Notice that no Boeing satellites are currently on the company's manifest.   Boeing Satellite Systems (originally Hughes satellite) was the primary reason that Sea Launch was created and based in Long Beach.  For the upcoming mission, Eutelsat 3B was flown in from Astrium in France.  The next Sea Launch satellite, not slated to fly until 2016, will be built in Russia.

Will Eutelsat 3B be the final Long Beach Sea Launch mission?

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 02/24/2014 08:00 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline Jim

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #1 on: 02/24/2014 08:09 PM »
One thing that is not* going to happen is Spacex using the launch platform or ship. 
* never can be inserted here too.

The concept would provides minimal performance improvements for a F9 and nothing but more expenses in return.  Also, there would be issues with launch vehicle compatibility.  For Zenit, the hold downs are not part of the erector and are at the launch mount. 

Offline simonbp

Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #2 on: 02/24/2014 08:42 PM »
Yeah, SpaceX has enough launch pads as it is...

However (and this a total shot in the dark), would there be an advantage if Orbital were to buy/lease the platform and use it for Antares?

Offline baldusi

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #3 on: 02/24/2014 09:29 PM »
Doesn't Sea Launch depends on the Boeing supplied fairing and interface abstraction to avoid ITAR problems? Doesn't the whole SL infrastructure depends on US TDRS? I guess a significant amount of modifications would have to be supplied to enable an non US Sea Launch. I guess they could move to Lutch, once they have the new ones launched (Lutch-5v?). And they could simply use the stock Land Launch fairing. But new port facilities, MIK, payload processing facility and such would have to be made at the new Russian port. With a very weak business model.

Offline Krevsin

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #4 on: 02/25/2014 07:19 AM »
Yeah, SpaceX has enough launch pads as it is...

However (and this a total shot in the dark), would there be an advantage if Orbital were to buy/lease the platform and use it for Antares?
The main reason why SpaceX isn't going to invest in SeaLaunch isn't the lack of launch pads, but the neccessary issues with logistics and supply inherent in owning and operating a sea-based launch pad. There simply isn't enough return on the investment in such an undertaking, mostly due to the small size of the market.

The same reasons, I assume, can be applied to Orbital. Owning and maintaining a platform like this just isn't viable for them in the long run unless the demand for launches skyrockets for some reason.

The only way SeaLaunch is going to exist in any way shape or form IMO, would most likely be through government funding as there simply isn't a large enough commercial market to sustain them.

Online docmordrid

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #5 on: 02/25/2014 08:14 AM »
DM

Offline zaitcev

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #6 on: 02/28/2014 04:00 PM »
About time all of this discussion moved to "Russian Launchers", I think ;)

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #7 on: 03/21/2014 11:47 AM »
From 2012 there are references for rockets up to Zenit-2S № SL42 and upper stages up to DM-SL № 40L. So after the current launch there is at least five rockets and four upper stages still available?
http://www.kmu.gov.ua/document/244932623/P0053-00.doc
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=19873.msg1136468#msg1136468

Also to note is that there have been fifty mission numbers allocated; but only 35 launches. A few customer’s changed launch provider.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22561.msg1076237#msg1076237

Zenit-2S № SL32 flew from Baikonur with a DM-SLB with Intelsat-18.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28913.msg946874#msg946874

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #8 on: 07/16/2014 04:07 PM »
Even more, upto DM-SL № 44L?

Quote
Выполнение работ по транспортировке ж/д транспортера с технологическим переходником и вагона сопровождения в адрес ФГУП "Красмашзавод" после перевозки базового модуля изделий 314ГК №38Л, 39Л, 40Л, 41Л, 42Л, 43Л, 44Л
http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/FileLoad.ashx?Fileid=928481

Offline zaitcev

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #9 on: 07/16/2014 05:35 PM »
Stan, at least two of those are slated to fly on Proton, one with GLONASS and other with something like Raduga, I forgot now. Dunno about No.44L specifically, that one is too new, but could be Proton as well.

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #10 on: 07/16/2014 06:41 PM »
Stan, at least two of those are slated to fly on Proton, one with GLONASS and other with something like Raduga, I forgot now. Dunno about No.44L specifically, that one is too new, but could be Proton as well.

So the 314ГК is only part of the DM-SL upper stage, and forms part of other Blok-D upper stages?

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #11 on: 07/25/2014 05:17 AM »
How is the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, and the specific unrest in eastern Ukraine, affecting the future of Sea Launch and its Ukrainian-produced Dnepr rocket? 

Are the Ukrainian companies that make it in territory that is stalwartly backing Ukraine, or are Russian separatist feelings strong there?

Is supply of more Dneprs no problem?  Do the Russian's have committed/signed customers for launches they might not want to welch on?
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline sdsds

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #12 on: 07/25/2014 05:25 AM »
Yuzhnoye Design Bureau and Yuzhmash are in the city of Dnipropetrovsk. The oblast (province) of the same name borders Kharkiv on the north and Donetsk on the east. In addition to Zenit, the Antares first stage core, and the AVUM third stage of  Vega are built there. All these customers expect to continue receiving their rocket parts; Yuzmash has no intention of disappointing them.
-- sdsds --

Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #13 on: 07/26/2014 12:58 PM »
How is the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, and the specific unrest in eastern Ukraine, affecting the future of Sea Launch and its Ukrainian-produced Dnepr rocket? 

Are the Ukrainian companies that make it in territory that is stalwartly backing Ukraine, or are Russian separatist feelings strong there?

Is supply of more Dneprs no problem?  Do the Russian's have committed/signed customers for launches they might not want to welch on?

Yuzhnoye Design Bureau and Yuzhmash are in the city of Dnipropetrovsk. The oblast (province) of the same name borders Kharkiv on the north and Donetsk on the east. In addition to Zenit, the Antares first stage core, and the AVUM third stage of  Vega are built there. All these customers expect to continue receiving their rocket parts; Yuzmash has no intention of disappointing them.


Thanks sdsds.  Then looks like the main Ukrainian rocket production (and design, if design is still being done on those old ICBMs that became Dneprs) is a bit west of the main area of the eastern unrest, and takeover of the local governments by Russian separatists.  Also, I'm sure (as you are) that Yuzmash will not want to dissapoint their customers.

However, geopolitical events and wars have a way of "hopes" being overcome by events on the ground.  And with Russia now having the major shareholder ownership of Sea Launch (through Energia, now owing 85% of Sea Launch following the 2010 emergence from bankruptcy, per Wikipedia), and with the Russian state already a year into the renationalisation of their own space industry (see here), it seems to me that the political elite in Russia may not want to keep flying any payloads on their Sea Launch system that flies with Ukrainian first and second stages.

So my question is not so much about the intent or hopes of a Ukrainian rocket company, or of the Ukrainian government hope/plans, but of how the 1) events on the ground may make further Sea Launch launches much more difficult (or impossible) and 2) that the Russian owners who are calling the shots may not elect to have Sea Launch continue, but may not want to say that openly and publically.

Are these things affecting the future of Sea Launch, and would we expect them to?
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Offline Stan Black

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #14 on: 09/15/2014 02:10 PM »
Quote
Операционный сегмент «Морской старт»
В 2011 году в результате приобретения контроля над ООО «Энергия Оверсиз» и ее дочерних компаний, реализующих проект «Морской старт» (ООО «Энергия-Лоджистикс»; Energia Logistics LLC; Sea Launch AG; Sea Launch S.a.r.l.; Platform Company LDS; Sea Launch ACS Ltd.) был образован сегмент «Морской старт».
В 2014 году имеется высокий риск того, что стоимость чистых активов Sea Launch AG может стать отрицательной. Одна из мер, предпринятых Руководством Группы, заключается в переводе текущих обязательств в субординированный займ, что позволит избежать вышеописанной ситуации и обеспечить выполнение требований законодательства Швейцарии.
Кроме того, сложившаяся на текущий момент геополитическая ситуация, связанная с событиями в Украине, несет риск осложнения вопросов поставки производителем ракеты «Зенит-2S», закупаемой Группой для целей реализации проекта «Морской старт». Мы мониторим текущую политическую нестабильность вокруг России и Украины в целях незамедлительного принятия необходимых мер, однако по оценке руководства на текущий момент прогнозировать развитие ситуации по данному вопросу невозможно.
http://www.e-disclosure.ru/portal/files.aspx?id=1615&type=5

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #15 on: 09/16/2014 06:42 AM »
Bing translation.

Quote
Operating segment of the «sea launch»
In 2011, as a result of the acquisition of control over overseas Energy, LLC and its affiliated companies, implementing the project "sea launch LLC (Energy-logistics"; Energia Logistics LLC; Sea Launch AG; Sea Launch S.a.r.l.; Platform Company LDS; Sea Launch ACS Ltd.) established segment of sea launch.
In 2014, there is a high risk that the value of the net assets of Sea Launch AG may become negative. One of the measures taken by the leadership of the group is to translate current obligations in a subordinated loan, in order to avoid the above situation and ensure compliance with the requirements of Swiss law.
In addition, the current geopolitical situation related to developments in Ukraine, bears the risk of complications of delivery by rocket "Zenit-2S", purchasing Group for the purposes of the implementation of the project "sea launch". We monitor the current political instability around Russia and Ukraine to immediately take the necessary measures, but according to the forecast of the development of the situation on this point is impossible.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline elvis

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #16 on: 09/26/2014 01:46 AM »
Bueller?

Any signs of life out there at Sea Launch?
« Last Edit: 09/26/2014 01:59 AM by elvis »

Offline kq6ea

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #17 on: 09/26/2014 06:17 AM »
The ships are still there.

Offline kq6ea

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #18 on: 10/06/2014 04:45 PM »

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Sea Launch Future
« Reply #19 on: 10/06/2014 04:50 PM »
Seems to me it doesn't have a future sadly.
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