Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2014?

1
2 (0.4%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
16 (3.2%)
5
23 (4.7%)
6
78 (15.8%)
7
87 (17.6%)
8
111 (22.5%)
9
66 (13.4%)
10
68 (13.8%)
11
12 (2.4%)
12 or more
31 (6.3%)

Total Members Voted: 494

Voting closed: 01/19/2014 10:57 PM


Author Topic: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014  (Read 147456 times)

Online oiorionsbelt

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #15 on: 12/21/2013 01:51 AM »
I feel cheated. :)
How can one show true optimism when the poll doesn't even allow for what is on the SpaceX manifest.
This is from the SpaceX website.
So I'm going with 15 launches, like their manifest shows.


2013   THAICOM (THAILAND)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 3   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT   VANDENBERG    FALCON HEAVY
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 4   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 5   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 6   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   SPACE SYSTEMS/LORAL   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   THALES ALENIA SPACE (TURKMENISTAN)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   DSCOVR (USAF)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   CONAE (ARGENTINA)   VANDENBERG    FALCON 9
2014   ASIA BROADCAST SATELLITE/SATMEX   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
Fanboi or carpboi

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #16 on: 12/21/2013 01:57 AM »
I feel cheated. :)
How can one show true optimism when the poll doesn't even allow for what is on the SpaceX manifest.
This is from the SpaceX website.
So I'm going with 15 launches, like their manifest shows.


2013   THAICOM (THAILAND)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 3   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT   VANDENBERG    FALCON HEAVY
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 4   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 5   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 6   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   SPACE SYSTEMS/LORAL   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   THALES ALENIA SPACE (TURKMENISTAN)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   DSCOVR (USAF)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   CONAE (ARGENTINA)   VANDENBERG    FALCON 9
2014   ASIA BROADCAST SATELLITE/SATMEX   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

Now this would explain the summer / fall gap in my chart... thx for posting this... now, can the poll be changed to reflect this information, or is it set in stone...
urhm werkin graduated dogwee inhebatoin fiwm Fyrsder booksk / dween Muthin wackadny... pme mor Ocbkom2 del

Online oiorionsbelt

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #17 on: 12/21/2013 01:59 AM »
It was a little tongue in cheek Gramps. :)  (but we'd all be over the moon, closer to Mars, so to speak, if it happened.)
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 02:08 AM by oiorionsbelt »
Fanboi or carpboi

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #18 on: 12/21/2013 02:06 AM »
It was a little tongue in cheek Gramps. :)  (but we'd all be over the moon, so to speak, if it happened.)

tongue firmly planted in cheek or not, there is that gap, and unless one postulates summer holidays or hurricane season, there is no good reason for it, after a halcyon first half of the year in launches, followed by an end of year traffic jam on LC-40... are they even physically capable of building and launching 12+ (not specifying success rate) in one year yet, or is that wishing for ponies and unicorns... and that is being seriously asked...

edit, proof reading ;-)
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 02:08 AM by cro-magnon gramps »
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Offline Xspace_engineerX

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #19 on: 12/21/2013 02:07 AM »
Pshh. 12 launches . 1 per month at the SES8 to thaicom 6 1 month turnaround.

I'm an optimist.

Offline deltaV

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #20 on: 12/21/2013 03:22 AM »
Let's make the "12" option be "12 or more" and the "1" option be "1 or less" so all options are covered.

Offline mr. mark

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #21 on: 12/21/2013 03:33 AM »
I'm picking 6 on the conservative side. Maybe 7 or 8 but, really guys and girls that's stretching it. Look at it this way. They ALMOST got to 4 launches in 2013. SpaceX achieved 3 launches. They have to still do the pad abort and the in flight abort in 2014 as well. That's why I picked 6 launches not counting the in flight abort.

Offline averagespacejoe

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #22 on: 12/21/2013 04:32 AM »
I am going to vote for 6 they might push 7 and that would be great but I would happy with them doubling their annual launch rate.

Online sdsds

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #23 on: 12/21/2013 04:35 AM »
I like this logic:

Thaicom 6 is a given.
CRS3 might get pushed back a bit.
Orbcomm #1 will probably launch in 2014.
Turkmensat -- SpaceX isn't going to let this one default to Ariane V.
Asiasat 8 and Thaicom 7 -- unless something drastic happens, I don't see any reason these would get pushed to 2015
CRS4 will definitely happen in 2014, CRS5 probably late in the year, and I think CRS6 will move to 2015.

But I also like this bit:
They have to still do the pad abort and the in flight abort in 2014 as well.

So I'm leaning towards seven launches that would count for the purpose of this poll. But I'm not voting yet; something might happen between now and the time Thaicom 6 reaches orbit!
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Online Sesquipedalian

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #24 on: 12/21/2013 04:54 AM »
Sure, but who cares what definition is picked, as long as it's specified beforehand (and he DID specify beforehand).

Well, obviously, I care.

Specifying it beforehand mitigates the issue, though.  If it's unspecified, then it's perfectly reasonable to argue EST rather than UTC.  But if he sets his own rules in the post that contains the poll, then it becomes a poll according to his new rules, whether they're logical or not.

For instance, tigerade is also wrong to exclude the launch abort test from the list of launches, but he clearly lists that as a rule in his post rather than using an unspoken assumption.  So what he's really polling is not "number of SpaceX launches in 2014", but rather "number of SpaceX launches in 2014 excluding the launch abort test".

Offline tigerade

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #25 on: 12/21/2013 05:23 AM »
Let's make the "12" option be "12 or more" and the "1" option be "1 or less" so all options are covered.

I think "more than 12" is beyond the likelyhood of unicorns in the flame trench, but I went ahead and edited that in.

Quote from: Sesquipedalian
For instance, tigerade is also wrong to exclude the launch abort test from the list of launches, but he clearly lists that as a rule in his post rather than using an unspoken assumption.  So what he's really polling is not "number of SpaceX launches in 2014", but rather "number of SpaceX launches in 2014 excluding the launch abort test".

I also put in to PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  Also it shows "orbital flights" in the thread title and the guidelines so it's pretty clear that launch abort tests don't count here. 

Also, with the new launch date as NET January, I think we're out of the woods on the whole UTC vs. EST argument, but I went ahead and put UTC on there.

Again guys, please send me a PM with any concerns on the poll... it gives me more room to address concerns rather than on here.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 05:23 AM by tigerade »

Online meekGee

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #26 on: 12/21/2013 05:40 AM »
This is purely about logistics.   Last year doesn't imply anything, since they were building/modifying pads, changing from F9.0 to F9.1 etc.

This year the Vandenberg pad is under-utilized, but this diverts the burden of FH from the schedule.

So for 12 flights: 2 from Vandenberg, and 10 from CCAFS. This will depend mainly on whether the 3 ISS bound flights and the abort tests hold up traffic.  Since I think they can beat 4-week turn around now, there's still room for in the year for the 7 remaining flights.

This is all assuming (hoping) that there are no mishaps of course.

Offline Pete

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #27 on: 12/21/2013 05:44 AM »
I vote 7.


Assuming no catastrophic failures, and no more than 2 glitches-that-can-be-fixed-but-cause-delays,
I think they will launch 8, but the one for flight abort test doesn't count, so 7.

I would be very surprised if the Falcon Heavy actually comes in on schedule.

I expect to see interesting stuff from GH2.
I expect to see success in first stage recovery & landing, but not actual reuse just yet.

Quite frankly, i expect to see a lot of very interesting stuff happen in the coming year!

Online hop

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #28 on: 12/21/2013 05:46 AM »
Voted 7. Anywhere from 5-8 wouldn't surprise me too much. Less if there is a major failure.

Assuming everything NET Dec in Salo's list will drift into 2015.

Expect Thaicom 6, Spx 3 - Spx 5, and one Orbcomm. No strong opinion on which of the others will fly.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #29 on: 12/21/2013 06:07 AM »
I am not so sure more than two Dragons will fly to orbit this year. Three dragons is a lot, given they have lots of other stuff on their plate at that site.

Thaicom 6, Spx-3, Orbcomm twice... Asiasat, Spx-4... I'm not sure what else. That's a LOT of flights in 1year for 1 pad. I haven't seen ANY hardware for Falcon Heavy, yet, so I can't see how that can fly when they haven't even tested its test stand, yet. If they flip conae with Falcon Heavy demo, then I can see 7 flights this year. That is a LOT of flights.

Falcon Heavy is a very big rocket. I need to see parts for it before I go and say it'll fly in 2014.

Only 2 of their flights in 2013 were from the Cape. But some people expect 10 of them next year??? That's a crazy ramp-up. 6 is already stretching it.
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