Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2014?

1
2 (0.4%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
16 (3.2%)
5
23 (4.7%)
6
78 (15.8%)
7
87 (17.6%)
8
111 (22.5%)
9
66 (13.4%)
10
68 (13.8%)
11
12 (2.4%)
12 or more
31 (6.3%)

Total Members Voted: 494

Voting closed: 01/19/2014 10:57 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014  (Read 196951 times)

Offline tigerade

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POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« on: 12/20/2013 10:57 PM »
Number of SpaceX flights in 2014

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0

Salo's US Flight Schedule
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html

Current 2014 SpaceX Flights Scheduled (According to Salo's Thread)
NET January - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
February 22 - Dragon SpX-3 (CRS3), Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star (THEIA) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET March - Orbcomm G2 (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - AsiaSat 8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
May - AsiaSat 6 (Thaicom 7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 6 - Dragon SpX-4 (CRS4) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E
September 12 - Dragon SpX-5 (CRS5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December 5 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
December - Turkmensat - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5 ECA)
NET December - Orbcomm G2 (x9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - Space Systems/Loral payload - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

Poll Rules
- 30 days allowed for voting
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- With Thaicom pushed to Jan 2014, everyone gets a freebie launch
- No do-overs, I can't change anyone's vote and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Commsats, mass simulators
- Suborbital missions such as Grasshopper and F9R tests DO NOT count.
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.

Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years.  Now at the beginning of 2014, it seems with the new Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket that SpaceX has gotten to the point where it's mass producing rockets and is ready to ramp up it's launch rate.  We are going to see how it goes and if there is no longer interest in this next year, this will be the last of 3 threads.  We will make these on popular demand.

My vote on "Number of Flights"
I am confident this time around that SpaceX has the production capacity and processes to support a higher flight rate.  I did not feel that way about Falcon 9 v1.0 but I do now about v1.1.  It seems that SpaceX has matured their procedures and are closing the times between flights.  I voted for 3 flights in 2012, and then 4 flights for 2013.  So I was off just by 1 each year.  For 2014, I am betting 10 launches.  Yes, that probably sounds bullish.  However, I am really confident that the major hurdles have been completed for the company.  I am making 12 slots as some of you may be even more optimistic than me.  And remember, everybody gets a freebie.  The Thaicom launch is pretty much a given.
« Last Edit: 04/13/2015 12:58 PM by Chris Bergin »

Offline Joffan

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #1 on: 12/20/2013 11:03 PM »
I'll go with 8, roughly double what happened this year (counting Thaicom as nearly-2013 and also helping my 2014 number :) )
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Offline Seer

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #2 on: 12/20/2013 11:04 PM »
Yay, the poll has finally arrived!
I voted for 4. The reason? Spacex has never launched faster than 1 rocket per quarter so far. Spacex has also only slowly ramped up its launch rate from 2 in 2012 to 3 in 2013, so 4 in 2014 sounds reasonable.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #3 on: 12/20/2013 11:09 PM »
Yay, the poll has finally arrived!
I voted for 4. The reason? Spacex has never launched faster than 1 rocket per quarter so far. Spacex has also only slowly ramped up its launch rate from 2 in 2012 to 3 in 2013, so 4 in 2014 sounds reasonable.

A lot depends on the Thaicom launch, so I will wait until early January to vote.

Right now, I am leaning towards 4, but if there is a quick Thaicom launch, I would vote for 5.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #4 on: 12/20/2013 11:26 PM »
I voted for 5 last year. I'll vote for 5 this year.
When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

Online Mongo62

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #5 on: 12/20/2013 11:28 PM »
It might be a good idea to specify exactly what launch time counts as being included in 2014: local time or universal time. Just in case another situation with a launch attempt late on December 31 local time arises.

I went with 9 launches. I hope for more, but am allowing for a certain degree of slippage.
« Last Edit: 12/20/2013 11:31 PM by Mongo62 »

Online Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #6 on: 12/20/2013 11:49 PM »
I voted for 5 last year. I'll vote for 5 this year.
Me too!
 ;)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #7 on: 12/20/2013 11:49 PM »
I'm not voting until the very end. I want to make sure I count how many cores are in process, where they are, etc... I want every launch I accounted for. But I expect to vote for 6.
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Online Barrie

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #8 on: 12/20/2013 11:52 PM »
I've gone for 8, which my gut tells me is the limit of 'very optimistic', and the threshold of 'wildly optimistic'.

Offline Arthree

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #9 on: 12/20/2013 11:59 PM »
I'm going with 8.

Thaicom 6 is a given.
CRS3 might get pushed back a bit.
Orbcomm #1 will probably launch in 2014.
Turkmensat -- SpaceX isn't going to let this one default to Ariane V.
Asiasat 8 and Thaicom 7 -- unless something drastic happens, I don't see any reason these would get pushed to 2015
CRS4 will definitely happen in 2014, CRS5 probably late in the year, and I think CRS6 will move to 2015.

Falcon Heavy will get pushed to 2015.  Orbcomm #2 is already NET December, so probably 2015.  The Space Systems/Loral one doesn't have an NET date.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #10 on: 12/21/2013 12:05 AM »
unless something drastic happens

So far they've found something drastic every year. :)
When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

Offline Arthree

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #11 on: 12/21/2013 12:16 AM »
unless something drastic happens

So far they've found something drastic every year. :)
Yeah but I'm a dreamer. ;)

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #12 on: 12/21/2013 12:19 AM »
trying to visualize the potential launches gave me a headache, so I did this chart... not very fancy put gives a clearer picture of what is dreamed of at SpaceX... I'm going to wait until Thaicom-6 launches, as I believe that the rest of first and second quarters are predicated on that launches success... and the rest of the year, will firm up by July, though I don't know how they are planning December launch force schedule... thinking of our Padrat there... that is going to be brutal...

Leaning towards 9 max... but no more... 10+ will be a miracle of work scheduling...

Gramps
"Well guess what, I've got SPRING fever, and the only prescription is to begin with a 'SMALLER' BFR rocket!" ;-)

Online AncientU

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #13 on: 12/21/2013 12:27 AM »
I believe in miracles... Ten -- nine at LC-40, one at Vandenberg.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline savuporo

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #14 on: 12/21/2013 01:22 AM »
Missing poll option: beating all time high record of Soyuz-U.

So I voted 1
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #15 on: 12/21/2013 01:51 AM »
I feel cheated. :)
How can one show true optimism when the poll doesn't even allow for what is on the SpaceX manifest.
This is from the SpaceX website.
So I'm going with 15 launches, like their manifest shows.


2013   THAICOM (THAILAND)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 3   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT   VANDENBERG    FALCON HEAVY
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 4   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 5   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 6   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   SPACE SYSTEMS/LORAL   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   THALES ALENIA SPACE (TURKMENISTAN)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   DSCOVR (USAF)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   CONAE (ARGENTINA)   VANDENBERG    FALCON 9
2014   ASIA BROADCAST SATELLITE/SATMEX   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
Fanboi or carpboi

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #16 on: 12/21/2013 01:57 AM »
I feel cheated. :)
How can one show true optimism when the poll doesn't even allow for what is on the SpaceX manifest.
This is from the SpaceX website.
So I'm going with 15 launches, like their manifest shows.


2013   THAICOM (THAILAND)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 3   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   ORBCOMM   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   FALCON HEAVY DEMO FLIGHT   VANDENBERG    FALCON HEAVY
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   ASIASAT   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 4   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 5   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   NASA RESUPPLY TO ISS FLIGHT 6   CAPE CANAVERAL    DRAGON & FALCON 9
2014   SPACE SYSTEMS/LORAL   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   THALES ALENIA SPACE (TURKMENISTAN)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   DSCOVR (USAF)   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9
2014   CONAE (ARGENTINA)   VANDENBERG    FALCON 9
2014   ASIA BROADCAST SATELLITE/SATMEX   CAPE CANAVERAL    FALCON 9

Now this would explain the summer / fall gap in my chart... thx for posting this... now, can the poll be changed to reflect this information, or is it set in stone...
"Well guess what, I've got SPRING fever, and the only prescription is to begin with a 'SMALLER' BFR rocket!" ;-)

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #17 on: 12/21/2013 01:59 AM »
It was a little tongue in cheek Gramps. :)  (but we'd all be over the moon, closer to Mars, so to speak, if it happened.)
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 02:08 AM by oiorionsbelt »
Fanboi or carpboi

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #18 on: 12/21/2013 02:06 AM »
It was a little tongue in cheek Gramps. :)  (but we'd all be over the moon, so to speak, if it happened.)

tongue firmly planted in cheek or not, there is that gap, and unless one postulates summer holidays or hurricane season, there is no good reason for it, after a halcyon first half of the year in launches, followed by an end of year traffic jam on LC-40... are they even physically capable of building and launching 12+ (not specifying success rate) in one year yet, or is that wishing for ponies and unicorns... and that is being seriously asked...

edit, proof reading ;-)
« Last Edit: 12/21/2013 02:08 AM by cro-magnon gramps »
"Well guess what, I've got SPRING fever, and the only prescription is to begin with a 'SMALLER' BFR rocket!" ;-)

Offline Xspace_engineerX

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Re: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2014
« Reply #19 on: 12/21/2013 02:07 AM »
Pshh. 12 launches . 1 per month at the SES8 to thaicom 6 1 month turnaround.

I'm an optimist.

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