Author Topic: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis  (Read 133494 times)

Offline fatjohn1408

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 293
  • Liked: 10
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #45 on: 11/15/2013 10:01 AM »
I have made this a while ago, based on the original press releases when a customer was announced and their manifest on their website.


F9 SES-8                                  November 25 2013
F9 Thaicom 6                            Q4 2013


F9 CRS-3                                  Feb 2014
F9 Orbcomm OG2 (8 of 18)        Q1 2014
F9 Asiasat 6                               Q2 2014
F9 Asiasat 8                               Q2 2014
F9 CRS-4                                   Q2 2014
F9 SAOCOM 1A                          2014
F9 Orbcomm OG2 (other 10)      Q2 2014
F9 In-Flight Abort Test                Q2 2014
F9 CRS-5                                    2014
F9 Space Systems                       2014
FH Demo Flight                           Q3 2014
F9 CRS-6                                    2014
F9 Satmex 7                                Q4 2014
F9 TurkmenistanSat                     Q4 2014
F9 DSCOVR Q4                            2014

F9 Jason-3                                   2015
F9 CRS-7                                     2015
F9 FORMOSAT-5                          2015
F9 Turkmenistan NSSC                 Q1 2015
F9 Amos 6                                       2015
F9 CRS-8                                      2015
F9 SAOCOM 1B                             2015
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2015
F9 SES                                          2015
F9 CRS-9                                      2015
FH STP-2                                      Q2/Q3 2015
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2015
F9 Astrobotic (Moon)                    Oct 2015
F9 CRS-10                                    2015
F9 Bigelow Aerospace                   2015
F9 Asia Broadcast Satellite            Q4 2015

F9 CRS-11                                    2016
F9 CRS-12                                    2016
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2016
F9 Dragonlab 1                               2016
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2016
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2016

FH Intelsat                                    2017
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2017
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2017
F9 Iridium NEXT                            2017

F9 RADARSAT                               2018
F9 SARah                                     2018
F9 Dragonlab 2                            2018

F9 SARah                                      2019

Regarding Bigelow, he made a payment for a future launch on a F5 (to launch sundancer iirc), when SpaceX decided to scrap that vehicle, they asked if they could keep the money and give him a future launch on the F9, he agreed to that.

Interesting. Thanks, couple of adjustments...
2nd orbcomm flight will carry 9. 1 Orbcomm satellite was lost on CRS-1 remember.
Satmex 7 will fly with ABS 3A
ABS 2A will fly with Satmex 9

And...
What about the SHERPA flights?
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2012/06/spacex-deal-falcon-9s-secondary-payload-manifest/
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/spaceflight-inc-unveils-the-sherpa-in-space-tug-371505/

Offline beancounter

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1228
  • Liked: 85
  • Perth, Western Australia
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #46 on: 11/19/2013 05:41 AM »
Thiacom 6 NET 20th December 2013 and still holding.
Beancounter from DownUnder

Offline intrepidpursuit

  • Member
  • Posts: 73
  • Liked: 7
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #47 on: 12/07/2013 12:22 AM »
I don't know when the change happened, but the SpaceX manifest currently shows 3 Orbcomm flights with 2 being BEFORE CRS-3. It shows Thaicom and one of the Orbcomm flights still in 2013, although obviously Thaicom is a long shot and another flight would not really be possible before 2014.

Why does it show 3 Orbcomm flights? When did they move up to before CRS-3?

Offline jketch

  • Member
  • Posts: 20
  • Liked: 5
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #48 on: 12/07/2013 12:50 AM »
They must have just changed it. It's now showing two Orbcomm missions again, both in 2014, but there is one Orbcomm mission scheduled before CRS-3.

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5901
  • Liked: 845
  • Australia
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #49 on: 12/07/2013 12:53 AM »
They must have just changed it. It's now showing two Orbcomm missions again, both in 2014, but there is one Orbcomm mission scheduled before CRS-3.

*Year indicates vehicle arrival at launch site.

When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

Offline meekGee

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3566
  • Liked: 1048
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #50 on: 12/07/2013 01:06 AM »
So the ordering is significant, right?

Meaning they've filled up January, and want to do FH early in the year?

Offline Jason1701

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2225
  • Liked: 63
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #51 on: 12/07/2013 01:12 AM »
So the ordering is significant, right?

Meaning they've filled up January, and want to do FH early in the year?

Early in what year? ;)

Offline meekGee

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3566
  • Liked: 1048
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #52 on: 12/07/2013 01:18 AM »
So the ordering is significant, right?

Meaning they've filled up January, and want to do FH early in the year?

Early in what year? ;)

I know - I was surprised as anyone to see it there.

Offline Norm38

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 466
  • Liked: 84
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #53 on: 12/07/2013 03:34 AM »
The ordering can't be exact. Unless they're launching three ISS flights back to back to back.
So I wouldn't read too much into the FH position.

Online Jarnis

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 346
  • Liked: 81
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #54 on: 12/07/2013 05:09 AM »
They must have just changed it. It's now showing two Orbcomm missions again, both in 2014, but there is one Orbcomm mission scheduled before CRS-3.

Additional sat launch before CRS-3 could be a sign that the upgraded Dragon isn't quite ready to go? Or perhaps this is because of ISS visiting vehicle schedules - squeezing another sat launch to line everything up?

Online Jcc

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 397
  • Liked: 45
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #55 on: 12/07/2013 12:22 PM »
To me, the lack of any announced change to the Dec 20 date for Thaicom 6 is deafening silence. Could they really launch in a little over 2 weeks from SES-8? If they pull it off, it changes a lot of assumptions about the viability of the manifest and probable slippages. If so, why not launch a flight in January, and still do CRS-3 as planned in Feb.

Offline IRobot

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 825
  • Liked: 54
  • Portugal & Germany
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #56 on: 12/07/2013 01:27 PM »
If they pull it off, it changes a lot of assumptions about the viability of the manifest and probable slippages.
IMO their slippages were mainly caused because of constant rocket evolution, F1, F9, F91.1, F9R. And new pad! As soon as they settle down on the design, I think they will keep the schedule.

Offline Prober

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6958
  • Liked: 200
  • Save the spin....I'm keeping you honest!
  • Nevada
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #57 on: 12/07/2013 03:30 PM »
I don't know when the change happened, but the SpaceX manifest currently shows 3 Orbcomm flights with 2 being BEFORE CRS-3. It shows Thaicom and one of the Orbcomm flights still in 2013, although obviously Thaicom is a long shot and another flight would not really be possible before 2014.

Why does it show 3 Orbcomm flights? When did they move up to before CRS-3?

I did a screen grab some 6 months ago and posted it in one of the threads.
The updated one?
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

Offline frim

  • Member
  • Posts: 2
  • Liked: 0
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #58 on: 12/07/2013 03:59 PM »
I took a look at  the SpaceX missions page. Looks like there are two different versions currently being served, one showing three flights, of which one is in 2013, and the other showing 2 flights, both in 2014.Depending on which server you hit, and which copy it has cached, you'll get a different page. That explains the different results you are seeing.

You can try yourself with the code below, but copy caches and IP addresses can change between runs.


Cairo:~ pieter$ host www.spacex.com
www.spacex.com is an alias for www.spacex.com.edgesuite.net.
www.spacex.com.edgesuite.net is an alias for a1479.g.akamai.net.
a1479.g.akamai.net has address 23.62.99.56
a1479.g.akamai.net has address 23.62.99.74

Cairo:~ pieter$ for i in `seq 100`; do curl -s http://23.62.99.74/missions -H "Host: www.spacex.com" | grep ORBCOMM -B2 | sed -n 's/.*\(201.\).*/\1/p' | xargs echo; done
2013 2014 2014
2013 2014 2014
2013 2014 2014
^C
Cairo:~ pieter$ for i in `seq 100`; do curl -s http://23.62.99.56/missions -H "Host: www.spacex.com" | grep ORBCOMM -B2 | sed -n 's/.*\(201.\).*/\1/p' | xargs echo; done
2014 2014
2014 2014
2014 2014
« Last Edit: 12/07/2013 04:09 PM by frim »

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2908
  • Liked: 156
Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #59 on: 12/07/2013 04:41 PM »
As soon as they settle down on the design, I think they will keep the schedule.
Is there any indication that this has actually happened now with SES flight ? I mean, have they stopped messing with the vehicle configuration ? From what i understand, due to all the reusability plans - no.
We are sorry to announce that due to irreversible nature of the events depicted in this movie, there will not be a "Gravity 2"

Tags: