Author Topic: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis  (Read 339239 times)

Offline Nydoc

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SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« on: 07/31/2013 07:28 PM »
The SpaceX launch manifest listed on the company website had not been updated in the longest time. Well, now it has with their newly improved website, check it out: www.spacex.com

The old manifest can still be seen on web.archive.org
(click here to see the old manifest and new manifest side by side.)

Here's my analysis of the newly updated launch manifest:
There is a lot of slippage. The NSPO launch has been pushed from 2013 to 2015. Various NASA launches have been pushed by 1 year. DragonLab Mission 1 has been pushed from 2014 to 2016 and DragonLab Mission 2 has been pushed from 2015 to 2018 and Falcon Heavy Demo has been pushed by one year. Iridium flight #8 is not on the new launch manifest but this may be an oversight of the webpage team. What was listed in the old launch manifest as "ORBCOMM - Multiple Flights" appears to be one (failed) flight in 2013 and a second planned for 2014. There is a single addition to the new launch manifest for a Thales Alenia Space/Turkmenistan launch in 2014.
« Last Edit: 07/31/2013 07:31 PM by Nydoc »

Offline Joffan

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #1 on: 07/31/2013 08:02 PM »
Thanks for the comparison table.

It's clear that the manifested Orbcomm flight for 2013 doesn't refer to the  secondary payload on a past NASA flight. The Orbcomm satellite fleet deployment clearly involves two dedicated flights, the first of which is manifested - optimistically or otherwise - to start integration in 2013.
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Offline R7

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #2 on: 07/31/2013 08:20 PM »
2014 and 2015 appear to be very crowded but nothing GLXP related, so much for that then?
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Offline Borklund

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #3 on: 07/31/2013 08:49 PM »
Forgive me if this is slightly OT and/or ignorant but is there any information at all about these so called DragonLab missions? What are they about? Who is the customer?

Offline Nydoc

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #4 on: 07/31/2013 10:13 PM »
Forgive me if this is slightly OT and/or ignorant but is there any information at all about these so called DragonLab missions? What are they about? Who is the customer?
This would be to demonstrate the utility of Dragon as a lab. I don't believe they have a customer signed on for the DragonLab demo. I think SpaceX would be the customer assuming no one buys these missions.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #5 on: 07/31/2013 11:27 PM »
Forgive me if this is slightly OT and/or ignorant but is there any information at all about these so called DragonLab missions? What are they about? Who is the customer?
This would be to demonstrate the utility of Dragon as a lab. I don't believe they have a customer signed on for the DragonLab demo. I think SpaceX would be the customer assuming no one buys these missions.

One interesting thing is that the orbit duration of Dragon has been increased to 2 years. (bottom of this page: http://www.spacex.com/dragon ) So a DragonLab demo could spend quite some time in orbit if they want to demonstrate that capability.

(perhaps this is not new, but it was new to me) ;)

« Last Edit: 07/31/2013 11:27 PM by Lars_J »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #6 on: 08/01/2013 02:52 AM »
I heard that DragonLab is going to happen at NewSpace 2013. Apparently they're selling space, not just talking about it this time. Of course, the source of this information got jibbed at the conference for running a penny stock company, so who knows.
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Offline dorkmo

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #7 on: 08/01/2013 03:30 AM »
seems like theyre aiming for 1 launch per month at the cape?

Offline Jason1701

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #8 on: 08/01/2013 06:47 AM »
Thanks for the comparison table.

It's clear that the manifested Orbcomm flight for 2013 doesn't refer to the  secondary payload on a past NASA flight. The Orbcomm satellite fleet deployment clearly involves two dedicated flights, the first of which is manifested - optimistically or otherwise - to start integration in 2013.

Right, the Orbcomm that has already flown was in 2012.

Offline Roy_H

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #9 on: 08/03/2013 09:10 AM »
Thanks for the comparison table.

It's clear that the manifested Orbcomm flight for 2013 doesn't refer to the  secondary payload on a past NASA flight. The Orbcomm satellite fleet deployment clearly involves two dedicated flights, the first of which is manifested - optimistically or otherwise - to start integration in 2013.

Over on the "How many Launches" section, most people are very pessimistic, and feel that SpaceX will only have two more flights this year. But with this new manifest, not only are they still saying they are going to have Cassiope, SES8, Thiacom, and SpX3 this year, they have added Orbcomm! Of course all this hinges on successful flights, of which Cassiope will be the most analyzed for anomalies. So even given a perfect flight on September 5, it is hard to believe the next flight would be before a month later. That would mean 4 flights in 3 months. And note that the heading used to say "Vehicle arrival at launch site" and now says "Launches". 
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Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #10 on: 08/03/2013 09:49 AM »
YearF9FHCargo DragonCrew DragonDragonLabCoresNotes
20136020061 completed
201411131016Grasshopper 2 replacement, abort test
201513231019Crew dragon test
2016603006

I've added a Grasshopper 2 replacement, as they expect to crash one. Also added the CCiCAP abort test for next year and rather speculatively a crewed dragon test for the end of 2015.

Looks like their sales team needs to go out and fill the order books for 2016 and beyond.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #11 on: 08/03/2013 11:05 AM »
YearF9FHCargo DragonCrew DragonDragonLabCoresNotes
20136020061 completed
201411131016Grasshopper 2 replacement, abort test
201513231019Crew dragon test
2016603006

I've added a Grasshopper 2 replacement, as they expect to crash one. Also added the CCiCAP abort test for next year and rather speculatively a crewed dragon test for the end of 2015.

Looks like their sales team needs to go out and fill the order books for 2016 and beyond.

No need. Don't you think it will fill itself after some successful launches with the new 9 v1.1? The next three flights will have a much larger effect on all current and future contracts then any skilled salesperson will.
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Offline Nathan

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #12 on: 08/03/2013 11:46 AM »
Thanks for the comparison table.

It's clear that the manifested Orbcomm flight for 2013 doesn't refer to the  secondary payload on a past NASA flight. The Orbcomm satellite fleet deployment clearly involves two dedicated flights, the first of which is manifested - optimistically or otherwise - to start integration in 2013.


Over on the "How many Launches" section, most people are very pessimistic, and feel that SpaceX will only have two more flights this year. But with this new manifest, not only are they still saying they are going to have Cassiope, SES8, Thiacom, and SpX3 this year, they have added Orbcomm! Of course all this hinges on successful flights, of which Cassiope will be the most analyzed for anomalies. So even given a perfect flight on September 5, it is hard to believe the next flight would be before a month later. That would mean 4 flights in 3 months. And note that the heading used to say "Vehicle arrival at launch site" and now says "Launches". 

There is a note at the bottom that the year indicates vehicle arrival at launch site,so nothing has changed in that sense
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Offline ChefPat

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #13 on: 08/03/2013 03:44 PM »

Looks like their sales team needs to go out and fill the order books for 2016 and beyond.

It looks like they need to shut up & launch some rockets. When that happens the 16' manifest will fill right up.
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Offline beancounter

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #14 on: 08/05/2013 09:49 AM »

Looks like their sales team needs to go out and fill the order books for 2016 and beyond.

It looks like they need to shut up & launch some rockets. When that happens the 16' manifest will fill right up.

I'd agree with that however it seems like most of the noise is not SpaceX pressers, mainly blogs.
Hardware is being built and integrated.  Launch infrastructure is being constructed including for the longer term.  R&D is being developed and tested.  Seems like lots in happening just not where people seem to want it which is with launches.
I'm happy to wait given the evidence of longer term committment.  Seems to me customers are as well otherwise they'd be cancelling their contracts and moving launch providers, something which has happened previously.
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Offline PCSTEL

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #15 on: 08/06/2013 03:45 AM »
No place to run, IMO..  With recent Proton Failures. (2 in 6 months) and a overbooked Proton and Ariane5 launch manifest.  Not really anywhere for anyone to "move to". 

Not easy moving from 2 launches a year to 6, let alone 12. 

Any bobble at all in the Cassiope launch will require  extensive analysis. (Probably even without a bobble).  If they get the launch off, by lets say early October..  I think they will be hard pressed to get a third one launched by Y/E.

Still stick by my 2 launches prediction.

 


Seems to me customers are as well otherwise they'd be cancelling their contracts and moving launch providers, something which has happened previously.

Offline beancounter

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #16 on: 08/06/2013 04:31 AM »
Good read on the tight launch marcket.  So far as 'bobble/s' go, think it'll depend very much on the type of 'bobble' and degree of severity. 

Sure gonna be interesting.  Finding the wait difficult  :P

No place to run, IMO..  With recent Proton Failures. (2 in 6 months) and a overbooked Proton and Ariane5 launch manifest.  Not really anywhere for anyone to "move to". 

Not easy moving from 2 launches a year to 6, let alone 12. 

Any bobble at all in the Cassiope launch will require  extensive analysis. (Probably even without a bobble).  If they get the launch off, by lets say early October..  I think they will be hard pressed to get a third one launched by Y/E.

Still stick by my 2 launches prediction.

 


Seems to me customers are as well otherwise they'd be cancelling their contracts and moving launch providers, something which has happened previously.
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Offline savuporo

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #17 on: 08/15/2013 06:15 AM »
No place to run, IMO..  With recent Proton Failures. (2 in 6 months) and a overbooked Proton and Ariane5 launch manifest.  Not really anywhere for anyone to "move to".
CZ-3(A/B/C) ?
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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #18 on: 08/15/2013 07:38 AM »
No place to run, IMO..  With recent Proton Failures. (2 in 6 months) and a overbooked Proton and Ariane5 launch manifest.  Not really anywhere for anyone to "move to".
CZ-3(A/B/C) ?

Not an option unless you are buying Chinese satellites (even Thales Alenia has given up its "ITAR-free" satellite production due to ongoing problems with the US State Department).
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Offline savuporo

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #19 on: 08/15/2013 03:27 PM »
Sucks to be a satellite operator these days, then. No rides available and the the one launcher with capacity and reliability is off limits.
Look at the launch numbers, totals through 2010-2013 with failures
Quote
CZ: 58 (1)
R-7: 57 (2)
Proton : 37 (5)
Ariane 5 : 21 (0)
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

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