Author Topic: Kunpeng-7, XSLC, May 13th 2013  (Read 46833 times)

Offline input~2

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #40 on: 05/14/2013 07:57 PM »
An interesting summary of data collected on this launch from blogger kktt:
http://liuqiankktt.blog.163.com/blog/static/121264211201341422610261/
(in Chinese)

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #41 on: 05/14/2013 10:21 PM »
An interesting summary of data collected on this launch from blogger kktt:
http://liuqiankktt.blog.163.com/blog/static/121264211201341422610261/
(in Chinese)

Highlights, please?  Once upon a time I resolved to learn to read Chinese, but so far I haven't. :)
"I canít tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #42 on: 05/14/2013 10:23 PM »
An interesting summary of data collected on this launch from blogger kktt:
http://liuqiankktt.blog.163.com/blog/static/121264211201341422610261/
(in Chinese)

Highlights, please?  Once upon a time I resolved to learn to read Chinese, but so far I haven't. :)

I don't see any other data there that isn't discussed above. A lot of speculation.
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #43 on: 05/15/2013 12:10 AM »
Damn, someone DID caught it in Hong Kong! (click the picture for animation) :o

It looks all but certain that whatever was launched 3 hours ago is something top secret, as described by someone at Xichang: http://lt.cjdby.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1614118
In my opinion, these images show a staging following immediately by the ignition of another stage.  That stage burns for a short time and then appears to burn out.  If this was viewed from Hong Kong, am I correct to surmise that the staging visible here would have to have been between, say, a second and a third stage? 

Would a pure "sounding rocket" have stages separating and starting like this?

These all look like solid motor burns to my eyes. 

 - Ed Kyle

Offline marshal

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #44 on: 05/15/2013 01:57 AM »
Ok, TLE

2013-022C               
1 39165U 13022C   13134.81968748 -.00000151  00000-0  00000+0 0    27
2 39165  49.5103 122.1512 5714712 354.1873   1.2137  4.42638024    07

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #45 on: 05/15/2013 02:08 AM »
Ok, TLE

2013-022C               
1 39165U 13022C   13134.81968748 -.00000151  00000-0  00000+0 0    27
2 39165  49.5103 122.1512 5714712 354.1873   1.2137  4.42638024    07

No, this is the Briz-M drop tank from today's Eutelsat 3D comms satellite launch from Baykonur.
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Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #46 on: 05/15/2013 02:13 AM »
Damn, someone DID caught it in Hong Kong! (click the picture for animation) :o

It looks all but certain that whatever was launched 3 hours ago is something top secret, as described by someone at Xichang: http://lt.cjdby.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=1614118
In my opinion, these images show a staging following immediately by the ignition of another stage.  That stage burns for a short time and then appears to burn out.  If this was viewed from Hong Kong, am I correct to surmise that the staging visible here would have to have been between, say, a second and a third stage? 

Would a pure "sounding rocket" have stages separating and starting like this?

These all look like solid motor burns to my eyes. 

 - Ed Kyle

Yes - depends on your definition of 'sounding rocket'. The launch vehicle here was clearly not a standard sounding rocket; but the term 'sounding rocket' is sometimes applied to any suborbital scientific launch - although 'vertical probe' would be the more traditional and accurate term for this particular launch. Vertical probes go to high altitudes and use large rockets, sometimes military missiles, to boost them. I agree that a multi-stage solid-motor missile, perhaps the DF-21, is in play here.
To consider a DF-21 launching a scientific vertical probe to be a 'sounding rocket' is within the historical scope of the term, but may not be the best choice of words.
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Offline input~2

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #47 on: 05/15/2013 05:14 AM »
An interesting summary of data collected on this launch from blogger kktt:
http://liuqiankktt.blog.163.com/blog/static/121264211201341422610261/
(in Chinese)

Highlights, please?  Once upon a time I resolved to learn to read Chinese, but so far I haven't. :)
Interestingly, he comes up with the same conclusion as I guessed concerning the announced drop zones:
at least 2 stages:
first stage drop zone in Yunnan (from local warning)
fairing drop zone in Guizhou (from NOTAM)
second stage drop zone in Hunan (from local warning)
(flight track and drop zones diagram from kktt below)

Offline catdlr

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #48 on: 05/15/2013 06:26 AM »
Another News Article:

China missile hit highest suborbital level since 1976: scientist

http://news.yahoo.com/china-missile-hit-highest-suborbital-level-since-1976-053335882.html
Tony De La Rosa

Offline beidou

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #49 on: 05/15/2013 10:57 AM »
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-china-launch-idUSBRE94E07D20130515

From the above news source: this launch was identified by a Harvard professor as a scientific exploration.

Offline beidou

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #50 on: 05/15/2013 10:59 AM »
A very strange NOTAM that indicates something being launched out of XSLC on the night of May 12 (missile test?):

A0507/13 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N272440E1062527-N270348E1061854 -N271521E1053214-N273614E1053838
BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL.ALL ACFT ARE PROHIBITED TO
FLY INTO THE AREA. SFC - UNL, 12 MAY 12:57 2013 UNTIL 12 MAY 13:46 2013. CREATED:
10 MAY 06:48 2013


There's another evidence that may or may not be related to this thing - report coming soon.

GPS: please adjust the thread title to "Sounding rocket, ..."

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #51 on: 05/15/2013 12:09 PM »
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-china-launch-idUSBRE94E07D20130515

From the above news source: this launch was identified by a Harvard professor as a scientific exploration.

That would be me. For the record, not technically a "Harvard professor" - I am a Smithsonian research scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian, here on the Harvard campus. Although I do sometimes teach Harvard students.

I was just giving my attempt at a balanced assessment of the discussion here and elsewhere as a counterpoint to the Washington Free Beacon's politically slanted version.  You shouldn't treat Reuters as a better source than nasaspaceflight.com :-)   (because we can go into more depth on the evidence here - I will say that Andrea Shalal-Esa from Reuters is one of the more careful reporters I've dealt with, along with the Associated Press folks like Seth Borenstein - but they have to summarize complex issues in a few sentences)
« Last Edit: 05/15/2013 12:10 PM by jcm »
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Offline input~2

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #52 on: 05/15/2013 01:26 PM »
For the record here is a link for the Washington Free Beacon article
http://freebeacon.com/china-conducts-test-of-new-anti-satellite-missile/
The author leans in favor of a DongNeng-2 (动能-2) test.

Offline jcm

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #53 on: 05/15/2013 02:16 PM »
For the record here is a link for the Washington Free Beacon article
http://freebeacon.com/china-conducts-test-of-new-anti-satellite-missile/
The author leans in favor of a DongNeng-2 (动能-2) test.


What's not clear to me:
 - What is a Dong Neng 2?  (what is the difference between a DN-2 and a DF-31 for instance?)
- Is Dong Neng 2 actually a Chinese designation, has it appeared in Chinese public sources? I've only seen it mentioned in US sources (also DN-1 for that matter). Or is it one of those fake designations that the US intelligence community sometimes slaps on things (like Taepodong)
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #54 on: 05/15/2013 03:30 PM »
For the record here is a link for the Washington Free Beacon article
http://freebeacon.com/china-conducts-test-of-new-anti-satellite-missile/
The author leans in favor of a DongNeng-2 (动能-2) test.


What's not clear to me:
 - What is a Dong Neng 2?  (what is the difference between a DN-2 and a DF-31 for instance?)
- Is Dong Neng 2 actually a Chinese designation, has it appeared in Chinese public sources? I've only seen it mentioned in US sources (also DN-1 for that matter). Or is it one of those fake designations that the US intelligence community sometimes slaps on things (like Taepodong)

The DN designator apparently refers to "kinetic energy" (动能) and is not typical of US/WSSIC "facility designators" -- so I think it actually may be a Chinese designator.  Whether it's official or just descriptive I couldn't say.

FWIW,

Quote
http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1348649-1-1.html

Original:

我国的中段导弹拦截系统主要负责大气层外,对导弹飞行的中段进行拦截,这个系统大致包括陆基地井发射的动能-1号(DN-1)先进拦截弹,性能大致类似与美国的GMD大气层外拦截弹。除动能-1...

Google Translate:

Midcourse missile interception system in China is mainly responsible for the atmosphere, in the middle of the missile to intercept, the system generally includes the kinetic energy of the land base for silo launchers -1 (DN-1) advanced interceptor missile, performance is substantially similar to GMD outside the atmosphere with the United States interceptor missile.  In addition to the kinetic energy -1...
"I canít tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline jcm

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #55 on: 05/15/2013 04:24 PM »
For the record here is a link for the Washington Free Beacon article
http://freebeacon.com/china-conducts-test-of-new-anti-satellite-missile/
The author leans in favor of a DongNeng-2 (动能-2) test.


What's not clear to me:
 - What is a Dong Neng 2?  (what is the difference between a DN-2 and a DF-31 for instance?)
- Is Dong Neng 2 actually a Chinese designation, has it appeared in Chinese public sources? I've only seen it mentioned in US sources (also DN-1 for that matter). Or is it one of those fake designations that the US intelligence community sometimes slaps on things (like Taepodong)

The DN designator apparently refers to "kinetic energy" (动能) and is not typical of US/WSSIC "facility designators" -- so I think it actually may be a Chinese designator.  Whether it's official or just descriptive I couldn't say.

FWIW,

Quote
http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1348649-1-1.html

Original:

我国的中段导弹拦截系统主要负责大气层外,对导弹飞行的中段进行拦截,这个系统大致包括陆基地井发射的动能-1号(DN-1)先进拦截弹,性能大致类似与美国的GMD大气层外拦截弹。除动能-1...

Google Translate:

Midcourse missile interception system in China is mainly responsible for the atmosphere, in the middle of the missile to intercept, the system generally includes the kinetic energy of the land base for silo launchers -1 (DN-1) advanced interceptor missile, performance is substantially similar to GMD outside the atmosphere with the United States interceptor missile.  In addition to the kinetic energy -1...


Thanks for that
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Offline jcm

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #56 on: 05/16/2013 02:28 AM »
Apparently there is a Pentagon statement that they tracked the launch to "nearly geostationary altitude" and that the associated objects were on a path that would dump them in the Indian Ocean. (got this from a reporter, haven't seen the original statement - does anyone have a link?)

So if their tracking is correct, we are looking at a circa 30000 km apogee and an 8 to 9 hour flight.

This also requires burnout to be at an angle to the horizontal closer to 50-60 deg than 80-90 deg, or the flight path goes too far west and not far enough south.

Here is a sample pseudo-TLE that attempts to capture such a path - very much not a unique solution

1R61335U 13S33    13133.54200000 0.00000000 +00000-0 +00000-0 0    14
2R61335  31.9247  47.1509 8564868  16.7538   7.4862  2.89773317     1
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Offline jcm

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #57 on: 05/16/2013 04:44 AM »
A journalist from Kyodo News, Mr T. Inoue, kindly passed on the following statement from the US Defense Dept. which is reported in a recent Kyodo wire service story (I don't have a link to the story). He kindly gives me permission to quote it.


"We detected a launch on May 13 from within China. The launch appeared to be on a ballistic trajectory nearly to geosynchronous Earth orbit. We tracked several objects during the flight but did not observe the insertion of any objects into orbit and no objects associated with this launch remain in space.

"Based upon observations, we assess that the objects reentered the atmosphere above the Indian Ocean. We defer any further questions to the government of China."


If we trust this, we may infer that even if the barium cloud was released at about 10000 km per the Chinese statement, this was well before apogee. This would bring the Chinese and US statements into alignment,
with the caveat that "nearly GEO" is very very vague - does that mean 35000 km? 30000 km? 20000 km?

While I continue to assess that this launch can't be described as an ASAT test in itself, the higher apogee does give more credence to the idea that it may be a test flight for a GEO-ASAT launch vehicle, or at least a proof of concept for such a capability.
« Last Edit: 05/16/2013 04:48 AM by jcm »
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Offline input~2

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #58 on: 05/16/2013 04:59 AM »
"We detected a launch on May 13 from within China. The launch appeared to be on a ballistic trajectory nearly to geosynchronous Earth orbit. We tracked several objects during the flight but did not observe the insertion of any objects into orbit and no objects associated with this launch remain in space.
2 more quotes of the same Pentagon spokeswoman declaration:
http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pages/2013/May%202013/May%2016%202013/Chinese-Anti-Satellite-Test.aspx
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-china-launch-idUSBRE94E07D20130515

Offline jcm

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Re: Sounding rocket (?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #59 on: 05/16/2013 05:32 AM »
"We detected a launch on May 13 from within China. The launch appeared to be on a ballistic trajectory nearly to geosynchronous Earth orbit. We tracked several objects during the flight but did not observe the insertion of any objects into orbit and no objects associated with this launch remain in space.
2 more quotes of the same Pentagon spokeswoman declaration:
http://www.airforcemag.com/DRArchive/Pages/2013/May%202013/May%2016%202013/Chinese-Anti-Satellite-Test.aspx
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/15/us-china-launch-idUSBRE94E07D20130515


Thanks - the AF Mag one is useful as the Reuters one didn't include the crucial statement about 'nearly GEO'.
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