Author Topic: Kunpeng-7, XSLC, May 13th 2013  (Read 46844 times)

Offline luhai167

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #20 on: 05/14/2013 06:58 AM »
May be in a few days, a huge sounding rocket will be lunched in to the South Pacific releasing multiple scientific probes gathering valuable information about our upper atmosphere.

Come to think of it, both DF-31A and DF-41 have never done a full range test (unlike DF-5) and ICBM MIRV capability has never been explicitly demonstrated. This is probably the most gaping gap been China's capabilities and demonstrations.

Offline snowhole

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #21 on: 05/14/2013 07:02 AM »
A very strange NOTAM that indicates something being launched out of XSLC on the night of May 12 (missile test?):

A0507/13 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N272440E1062527-N270348E1061854 -N271521E1053214-N273614E1053838
BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL.ALL ACFT ARE PROHIBITED TO
FLY INTO THE AREA. SFC - UNL, 12 MAY 12:57 2013 UNTIL 12 MAY 13:46 2013. CREATED:
10 MAY 06:48 2013


There's another evidence that may or may not be related to this thing - report coming soon.

OK I have seen two tweets on May 8 from two people in different places - one in Dao County in Hunan and another near Zhaotong in Yunnan - that reports that there will be a rocket launch in the next few days and that rocket debris will fall over their heads, so the local people are warned beforehand. The one from Yunnan went further and said that this is the first time that their place is being targeted as a drop zone (claimed to be the first stage). Both places lines up with the straight line that stretches from XSLC to the air closure zone indicated above.

The strange thing is that the drop zone is a mere 400 km from the launch site, has never been flown before in such a direction, and is happening at night time (~9 pm local). Missile test? Or something else.....  ???



Could you please share with us where these reports come from? I searched the Weibo and got conflicting (and confusing) reports from Dao County, and no results for Zhaotong, Yunnan.

Offline marshal

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #22 on: 05/14/2013 07:05 AM »
So it don't into orbit ?

any TLE ?
« Last Edit: 05/14/2013 07:06 AM by marshal »

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #23 on: 05/14/2013 07:06 AM »
I'd really like to not see any more ASAT tests, it's already been established that messes can be made, and each one makes things worse. If this is what the Chinese are doing... why?

Well.... they don't actually need to really aim at a real satellite even for ASAT testing (i.e. using a simulated target), so let's see if there's a new debris cloud forming in GTO/GEO over the next few days....

So it don't into orbit ?

any TLE ?

None as of right now.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2013 07:06 AM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline snowhole

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #24 on: 05/14/2013 07:36 AM »
I'd really like to not see any more ASAT tests, it's already been established that messes can be made, and each one makes things worse. If this is what the Chinese are doing... why?

Well.... they don't actually need to really aim at a real satellite even for ASAT testing (i.e. using a simulated target), so let's see if there's a new debris cloud forming in GTO/GEO over the next few days....
It would be extremely unlikely that they destroy some real object on the GEO and leave a debris cloud there. That would guarantee strong condemnations as the GEO is limited resource.

Offline NH2501

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #25 on: 05/14/2013 09:02 AM »
Also they got sounding rocket test on 5th of April, but from Hainan and not so spectacular... Also branch of Chinese Science Academy was involved.
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Offline Liss

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #26 on: 05/14/2013 10:19 AM »
Also they got sounding rocket test on 5th of April, but from Hainan and not so spectacular... Also branch of Chinese Science Academy was involved.

Umm, a NOTAM existed for that day for a position just inside the Yalongwan Bay and within the borders of Yulin Naval Base near Sanya :-)

Quote
A0297/13 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED: A CIRCLE CENTERED AT N181258E1093941 WITH RADIUS OF 10KM, VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL. GENERAL AVIATION ACFT (INCLUDE TRAINING FLY, PHYSICAL FLY, ENTERTAINMENT FLY AND ADVERTISEMENT FLY) ARE PROHIBITED TO FLY INTO THIS AREA. SFC - UNL, 05 APR 00:01 2013 UNTIL 08 APR 16:00 2013. CREATED: 02 APR 05:57 2013
« Last Edit: 05/14/2013 10:22 AM by Liss »
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #27 on: 05/14/2013 12:03 PM »
Here is the official story, just another sounding rocket. However, if this is a sounding rocket, it is the most high profile sounding rocket I have ever seen.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cas.ac.cn%2Fky%2Fkyjz%2F201305%2Ft20130514_3839206.shtml&act=url

That would be one huge sounding rocket with extremely long range capabilities - they should have sold them back to the Americans and Europeans, for they would have good use of it at such a cheap price.....  ;)

This is the worst cover-up story I have ever seen - which only add fuel to the speculation on what happened yesterday. I'm waiting for responses inside the Beltway....  ;D

The interesting thing is that the science payload is reported to have included a barium release. Were there any observations of a red cloud reported?

If you take the report at face value it could be something like one of the Soviet Vertikal' probes, or a  US Blue Scout Junior, with thousands of km
apogee rather than the usual few hundred km of typical sounding rockets.
That would be consistent with the reported magnetosphere mission.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2013 12:16 PM by jcm »
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Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #28 on: 05/14/2013 12:13 PM »
Here is the official story, just another sounding rocket. However, if this is a sounding rocket, it is the most high profile sounding rocket I have ever seen.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cas.ac.cn%2Fky%2Fkyjz%2F201305%2Ft20130514_3839206.shtml&act=url

That would be one huge sounding rocket with extremely long range capabilities - they should have sold them back to the Americans and Europeans, for they would have good use of it at such a cheap price.....  ;)

This is the worst cover-up story I have ever seen - which only add fuel to the speculation on what happened yesterday. I'm waiting for responses inside the Beltway....  ;D

The interesting thing is that the science payload is reported to have included a barium release. Were there any observations of a red cloud reported?

If you take the report at face value it could be something like one of the Soviet Vertikal' probes, or a  US Blue Scout Junior, with thousands of km
apogee rather than the usual few hundred km of typical sounding rockets.


I have seen hundreds of reports (and photos, although most of them are of rather poor) spread over more than a thousand miles apart yesterday, and "strangely" none of them reports a red cloud - all of them saw a comet like streak crossing the sky steadily for 1-2 minutes.

Plus the last time they did such an experiment in early April the authorities issued warnings beforehand with indication that a sounding rocket launch was planned. Not this time.

The rest of the story is left to the reader as an exercise.  ::)
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #29 on: 05/14/2013 12:24 PM »
Here is the official story, just another sounding rocket. However, if this is a sounding rocket, it is the most high profile sounding rocket I have ever seen.

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cas.ac.cn%2Fky%2Fkyjz%2F201305%2Ft20130514_3839206.shtml&act=url

That would be one huge sounding rocket with extremely long range capabilities - they should have sold them back to the Americans and Europeans, for they would have good use of it at such a cheap price.....  ;)

This is the worst cover-up story I have ever seen - which only add fuel to the speculation on what happened yesterday. I'm waiting for responses inside the Beltway....  ;D

The interesting thing is that the science payload is reported to have included a barium release. Were there any observations of a red cloud reported?

If you take the report at face value it could be something like one of the Soviet Vertikal' probes, or a  US Blue Scout Junior, with thousands of km
apogee rather than the usual few hundred km of typical sounding rockets.


I have seen hundreds of reports (and photos, although most of them are of rather poor) spread over more than a thousand miles apart yesterday, and "strangely" none of them reports a red cloud - all of them saw a comet like streak crossing the sky steadily for 1-2 minutes.

Plus the last time they did such an experiment in early April the authorities issued warnings beforehand with indication that a sounding rocket launch was planned. Not this time.

The rest of the story is left to the reader as an exercise.  ::)

The release, if it occurred, might have been 20 minutes to an hour later depending on the apogee.

Not impossible for both ideas to be true: trajectory test of a new launch vehicle variant with a science payload, but vehicle mainly intended to carry an ASAT in future.
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #30 on: 05/14/2013 12:32 PM »
Not impossible for both ideas to be true: trajectory test of a new launch vehicle variant with a science payload, but vehicle mainly intended to carry an ASAT in future.

Any ideas as to what rocket might be involved? There are some clues, such as the drop zone and final(?) stage burn-out seen well above the horizon at Hong Kong.
"I canít tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #31 on: 05/14/2013 01:05 PM »
Not impossible for both ideas to be true: trajectory test of a new launch vehicle variant with a science payload, but vehicle mainly intended to carry an ASAT in future.

Any ideas as to what rocket might be involved? There are some clues, such as the drop zone and final(?) stage burn-out seen well above the horizon at Hong Kong.

If it's a BlueScoutJr type of launch, the ascent trajectory would be almost vertical and the drop zone would be much closer to the launch site than for the same rocket used in a satellite or ICBM launch mode. To be above the horizon at HK would require final stage burnout to be at 200 km or more - easily achievable for a variety of large launch vehicles
if they go almost straight up.

But it makes sense to look at vehicles already launched from Xichang, we know only of the CZ-2, CZ-3, and DF-21. So I would guess a DF-21, DF-31 or derivative (which is also what the folks who think it's an ASAT would expect) is most likely, with a suborbital flight of CZ-2C as unlikely (they would probably give the rocket name in that case). But a suborbital component test of a new CZ vehicle - maybe the CZ-6? - might also be plausible,  I need to give that some thought.
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Offline marshal

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #32 on: 05/14/2013 02:31 PM »
Seems like no TLE in NORAD

 ???

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #33 on: 05/14/2013 03:22 PM »

The release, if it occurred, might have been 20 minutes to an hour later depending on the apogee.

Not impossible for both ideas to be true: trajectory test of a new launch vehicle variant with a science payload, but vehicle mainly intended to carry an ASAT in future.

Looks like you are indeed right! Those instruments did measure the magnetosphere and released solid barium at a height of over 10000 km :o (so at least there's a science payload hitchhiking)

http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2013/05-14/4817925.shtml

However, the same news article exposed the real intent of the rocket  ::):

1. The altitude reached by the rocket is >10000 km; definitely beyond the range of all mainstream sounding rockets
2. The rocket (claimed as "Kunpeng 7", although I am 100% sure that the name refers to the payload package and not the rocket) is built by CASIC (KT-1 derivative?)
« Last Edit: 05/14/2013 03:34 PM by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #34 on: 05/14/2013 03:33 PM »

http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2013/05-14/4817925.shtml


Google Translate of that, in case the original should evaporate:

Quote
China once again high-altitude scientific exploration test: height higher data more
On May 14, 2013 20:57 Source: China News (5)

BEIJING, May 14 (Reporter Sun Zifa) reporter learned from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, National Space Science Center on the 14th, following the April 5, 2013, China successfully conducted for the first time sounding of the space environment and space science initiative test, May 13 and the success of a higher degree of high-altitude scientific exploration test.

The pilot commander, GONG Jian village Fellow, National Space Science Center, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said the active test probe test compared to the space in Danzhou, Hainan on April 5 this year, at the altitude has been greatly increased by hundreds of kilometers to more than 10,000 kilometers; equipped with a more scientific instruments, data obtained relates to a wider range of space, the amount of data is more. Preliminary analysis indicates that the test has been obtained first-hand scientific data, the vertical distribution of different heights on the space environment parameters and space science research has a very important value.

The trial, sounding rocket through the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere, and finally into the magnetosphere. Sounding rocket carrying scientific instruments, space radiation in low latitudes with high-energy particles, ionospheric plasma and magnetic field distribution in situ detection. Sounding rocket released at the height of 10,000 km near the metal barium meal, barium cloud is formed in the space and ground-based optical telescope follow-up observations of the barium cloud evolution, measured to study the dynamic characteristics of this region of the magnetosphere data.

It is reported that the space scientific experiments at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center, energetic particle detectors, Langmuir probe, magnetometer, the barium metal powder release device and other scientific instruments designed and developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, National Space Science Center, launch vehicles the Kunpeng VII "developed by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Group. (End)
"I canít tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #35 on: 05/14/2013 03:52 PM »

The release, if it occurred, might have been 20 minutes to an hour later depending on the apogee.

Not impossible for both ideas to be true: trajectory test of a new launch vehicle variant with a science payload, but vehicle mainly intended to carry an ASAT in future.

Looks like you are indeed right! Those instruments did measure the magnetosphere and released solid barium at a height of over 10000 km :o (so at least there's a science payload hitchhiking)

http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2013/05-14/4817925.shtml

However, the same news article exposed the real intent of the rocket  ::):

1. The altitude reached by the rocket is >10000 km; definitely beyond the range of all mainstream sounding rockets
2. The rocket (claimed as "Kunpeng 7", although I am 100% sure that the name refers to the payload package and not the rocket) is built by CASIC (KT-1 derivative?)


Well, that is consistent with my Blue Scout Jr analogy - use of a miltary rocket for high altitude sounding. It *could* be an independent program using the DF-21 or DF-31, rather than being tightly related to the use of that rocket family for ASAT missions from Xichang.  Or your inference of a direct connection could  well be correct - I just don't think we can make a confident conclusion on the available data.

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Offline edkyle99

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #36 on: 05/14/2013 04:18 PM »
It might be interesting to determine what was flying by in orbit around that time.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #37 on: 05/14/2013 05:02 PM »
It might be interesting to determine what was flying by in orbit around that time.
 - Ed Kyle

Indeed it would. Perhaps Ted M or one of his co-hobbyists can run the TLEs. Reconstructing the ascent trajectory of the whatsit as accurately as possible from the available information will be important.
"I canít tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline jcm

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #38 on: 05/14/2013 06:11 PM »
Following up a suggestion in a private message, here is the list of sounding rockets that reached more than 10000 km:


1976 Jun 18 1141     Scout D-1      S193C                    GP-A                WI       LA3A           10230     
1963 Jul 30 1616:08  Blue Scout Jr  22-1/AD-622              AFCRL-1/21 (AD-622) CC       LC18A          11100     
1965 Mar 30 1609:31  Blue Scout Jr  22-4 (OAR Probe 4)       AFCRL-35            CC       LC18A          12067     
1965 May 12 1602:35  Blue Scout Jr  22-8 (OAR Probe 6)       AFCRL-335           CC       LC18A          13586     
1965 Jun  9 1626:15  Blue Scout Jr  22-5 (OAR Probe 7)       AFWL-304            CC       LC18A          17533     
1965 Apr  9 1810:37  Blue Scout Jr  22-9 (OAR Probe 5)       AWFL-14             CC       LC18A          25422     
1960 Sep 21 1301:53  Blue Scout Jr  D-1                      HETS                CC       LC18A          26700     
1971 Sep 20 2331:00  Scout B        S166C                    Barium Ion Cloud    WI       LA3A           31479     
1961 Dec  4 0400:16  Blue Scout Jr  O-2                      HETS                PA       LC-A           44400     
1961 Aug 17 1429     Blue Scout Jr  O-1                      HETS                CC       LC18A         225000     


The apogee for O-1 is highly uncertain as it was not tracked and telemetry was lost, so take it with a very large pinch of salt. The others should be reasonably accurate.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2013 06:12 PM by jcm »
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Offline input~2

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Re: Unknown (DN-2?), XSLC, May 13th 2013
« Reply #39 on: 05/14/2013 07:00 PM »
Xin Hua reproducing microbloggers photos of the rocket ???
http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-05/14/c_115765199.htm

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