Author Topic: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread  (Read 85530 times)

Online sanman

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3725
  • Liked: 459
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #340 on: 02/27/2013 03:04 AM »
Better for an idea to fail out of the starting gate, then to recklessly go out on a wing and a prayer and result in a horrible disaster.

What would be the estimated travel time to Mars using existing technology?
(Boeing, Lockheed, or even SpaceX)

Offline Dalhousie

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2057
  • Liked: 251
  • Likes Given: 305
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #341 on: 02/27/2013 03:08 AM »
Better for an idea to fail out of the starting gate, then to recklessly go out on a wing and a prayer and result in a horrible disaster.

What would be the estimated travel time to Mars using existing technology?
(Boeing, Lockheed, or even SpaceX)

As has been said several times in this thread, the round trip is 500 days.
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8092
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2860
  • Likes Given: 684
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #342 on: 02/27/2013 03:14 AM »
Wondering if NASA wants to kill this project? SpaceX seems to want to be a long term NASA contributor for their projects. Elon Musk even stated so in a after splashdown interview. Is SpaceX attempting to help kill this project as a political way of aligning itself with future NASA missions?

There's no need for the conspiracy theory. SpaceX probably just asked them for a deposit to show they're serious.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Afrocle

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 196
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #343 on: 02/27/2013 03:24 AM »
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578328631778830030.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#

if this is true this project is already dead :)

This WSJ article also sends a message that Dennis Tito is making this credible by potentially spending $100 million of his own money. The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion. If Tito spends the money, then people will do the work.

If SpaceX is completely uninvolved, then they could still launch using multiple flights of Proton rockets which launch every 2 weeks. They could rendezvous with an upper stage similar to the Space Adventures plan to fly 2 people to the Moon for $300 Million with a rendezvous in LEO with an upper stage. I think, however, that SpaceX will ultimately be involved if they are paid to do so. SpaceX will be a vendor and not a technology partner.

The most important team member is Paragon and their ability to create a habitat and a life support system that makes the 501 day trip survivable for 2 Astronauts. Paying for rockets and reentry capsules is not what is hard about this Mars flyby mission, but it is true that having SpaceX onboard could cut the cost from "over $1 Billion" to the $500 million that the WSJ reports.

The real point of the Dennis Tito press conference is to send the message to the world that NASA and others do not have to wait until the mid 2030s and spend $300 Billion in budget to attempt a rendezvous between Mars and humans in a spacecraft. The bloggers on this NSF thread could figure out in a week how to successfully conduct this Mars mission for under $1 Billion by 2018, and Dennis Tito (with his $100 million) can find ways to increase his credibility to attract the last $900 million needed to conduct this mission.

Dennis Tito will not wait until he is over 100 years old to see humans go to Mars when he can do it now for the $100 million he says he is willing to spend. James Cameron has directed 2 movies about crashing ships and space travel that have grossed well over $1 Billion each and attracted global audiences so this is doable.

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8092
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2860
  • Likes Given: 684
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #344 on: 02/27/2013 03:41 AM »
Seems NASA Watch is saying Andy Pasztor is up to his usual tricks.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline kkattula

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2506
  • Melbourne, Australia
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #345 on: 02/27/2013 04:22 AM »
Maybe SpaceX have their own BEO plans and see this as a distracting sideshow?

Offline joek

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2777
  • Liked: 530
  • Likes Given: 326
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #346 on: 02/27/2013 04:26 AM »
The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion.

I admire the enthusiasm, but really... they only have to spend a maximum of ... that much?  Holy crud. $0.5-1.0B--even assuming those numbers are close to reality, that's... 1/6-1/3 of the annual world-wide  commercial launch market.  That's in the range of what SpaceX has spent to date.  We're talking serious money, effort and risk, with no clear return; only is not a word I would use.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2013 04:28 AM by joek »

Offline jongoff

  • Recovering Rocket Plumber/Space Entrepreneur
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6019
  • Lafayette/Broomfield, CO
  • Liked: 1993
  • Likes Given: 681
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #347 on: 02/27/2013 04:47 AM »
Seems NASA Watch is saying Andy Pasztor is up to his usual tricks.

Yeah, some of his spin definitely does not jibe with what I've been hearing from my friends who are involved in this project.

~Jon

Offline Afrocle

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 196
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #348 on: 02/27/2013 04:47 AM »
The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion.

I admire the enthusiasm, but really... they only have to spend a maximum of ... that much?  Holy crud. $0.5-1.0B--even assuming those numbers are close to reality, that's... 1/6-1/3 of the annual world-wide  commercial launch market.  That's in the range of what SpaceX has spent to date.  We're talking serious money, effort and risk, with no clear return; only is not a word I would use.

I think that you understand my main point which is that if Tito really spends $100 million of his own money, then that $100 million gives this human Mars flyby the credibility that it needs in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. He does not need to show the last bit of money until 2017 and 2018.

The $500 Million to $1 Billion is what Kistler spent in under 5 years on a rocket that went nowhere, so there are plenty of investors in the Arab world, Taiwan, Singapore, Africa, Latin America, etc. who could find this risk capital.

We are not talking serious money here when you put it into the perspective of an 80 year old man (or close to that) and the first trip, in over a billion years of the history of life on this Earth, of humans to Mars.

What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?

Offline RocketmanUS

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #349 on: 02/27/2013 05:07 AM »
1M people with $1,000 = $1B.

1M people donate $83.34 per month for 12 months = a little over $1B

$83.34 is the cost for cable tv in the U.S.

So if 1M people in the U.S. like what they see after press conference then they just might be able to raise the needed funds. Not saying anyone should.
Mars and beyond, human exploration
The grass is always greener on the other side. When you stand on top of the hill you see both sides!

Offline joek

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2777
  • Liked: 530
  • Likes Given: 326
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #350 on: 02/27/2013 05:40 AM »
I think that you understand my main point which is that if Tito really spends $100 million of his own money, then that $100 million gives this human Mars flyby the credibility that it needs in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. He does not need to show the last bit of money until 2017 and 2018.
Not necessarily.  Other investors are going to need more than one's money before they throw in their own money in any quantity.  While Tito has a track record, it's not recent and largely fringe and not anything to inspire confidence in recouping one's investment in such an enterprise.

Quote
The $500 Million to $1 Billion is what Kistler spent in under 5 years on a rocket that went nowhere, so there are plenty of investors in the Arab world, Taiwan, Singapore, Africa, Latin America, etc. who could find this risk capital.
I wouldn't bring up Kistler when attempting to attract investors.  Where did you get the idea that Kistler's serious investors were from the "Arab world, Taiwan, Singapore, Africa, Latin America, etc."?

Quote
We are not talking serious money here when you put it into the perspective of an 80 year old man (or close to that) and the first trip, in over a billion years of the history of life on this Earth, of humans to Mars.
See above.  May not be "serious money here when you put it into the perspective of an 80 year old man", but not all (or most?) investors will be similar to Tito.

Quote
What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?
Likely something else, if history is any indication.  You conflate "Tito" with "other investors"--that's a mistake.

Where exactly do people get the idea that there are all these old bazillionares waiting for a Tito (or whoever) to come along to relieve them of their money and grant them absolution or be eternally enshrined based on a New Cause for the Betterment of Mankind?  Granted, such potential fame may appeal to the vanity of some and hold an attraction--at least if they're serious space nuts.  However, you'll likely be competing with the likes of Gates and Buffet for those philanthropic funds for projects much closer to Earth.

In short, as a thought experiment, imagine... (a) Dennis Tito and whoever on one side of the table; and (b) Bill Gates and Warren Buffet on the other side of the table.  Both sides are making a pitch for your money with the goal of bettering  mankind.  Who do you think is likely to make the more pursuasive pitch?  To whom would you most likely entrust your money?

Offline R7

  • Propulsophile
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2738
    • Don't worry.. we can still be fans of OSC and SNC
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 663
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #351 on: 02/27/2013 10:35 AM »
What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?

Yes. A football stadium has potential to generate profit.

An investor by definition wouldn't give a dime for sending two people on a long uncomfortable trip.
AD·ASTRA·ASTRORVM·GRATIA

Online rklaehn

  • telemetry plumber
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1205
  • germany
    • www.heavens-above.com
  • Liked: 88
  • Likes Given: 154
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #352 on: 02/27/2013 10:51 AM »
The important thing is this $100 million in start up capital, and they only have to spend a maximum of $100 million over the next 3 to 4 years to be credible to launch towards Mars in 5 years with the full $500 million to $1 Billion.

I admire the enthusiasm, but really... they only have to spend a maximum of ... that much?  Holy crud. $0.5-1.0B--even assuming those numbers are close to reality, that's... 1/6-1/3 of the annual world-wide  commercial launch market.  That's in the range of what SpaceX has spent to date.  We're talking serious money, effort and risk, with no clear return; only is not a word I would use.

To put this into perspective: larry ellison spent 400 million USD on a sailboat to win the america's trophy.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2011/03/americas-cup-san-francisco-usa-17-yacht.html?page=all
Try the ISS 3D visualization at http://www.heavens-above.com/ISS_3D.aspx

Offline MATTBLAK

  • Elite Veteran & 'J.A.F.A'
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3737
  • 'Space Cadets' Let us; UNITE!! (crickets chirping)
  • New Zealand
  • Liked: 702
  • Likes Given: 1326
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #353 on: 02/27/2013 11:12 AM »
And another billionaire is building a Titanic replica.
"Those who can't, Blog".   'Space Cadets' of the World - Let us UNITE!! (crickets chirping)

Offline Ben the Space Brit

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6957
  • A spaceflight fan
  • London, UK
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 609
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #354 on: 02/27/2013 11:21 AM »
A "watch this space" article was published today in the centre-left-wing The Independent.  It must be a slow news day today because they even ran a short editorial on the news!

In essence, the article focuses on the problems and the difficulty of raising funding; it also has some talking heads expressing their opinions and an interesting member of the IM Foundation - former NASA astronaut Dr Jonathan Clark.  The editorial is more neutral and is thoughtful and positive about what impact a successful Inspiration Mars mission might have on the collective human psyche.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2013 11:25 AM by Ben the Space Brit »
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

~*~*~*~

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline Chris Bergin

Converted this into the pre-annoumcement thread.

Live coverage of the presser and post announcement reaction thread set up. Will be locked until the presser starts:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31215.0

This thread will be locked at that point as we all move over to the new thread.

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #356 on: 02/27/2013 11:36 AM »
What else should Tito and other investors spend this money on? A football stadium?

Yes. A football stadium has potential to generate profit.

An investor by definition wouldn't give a dime for sending two people on a long uncomfortable trip.

Chelsea's owner has put in about a billion into the team (remember, in football (soccer) you are not just paying millions in player contracts, but you need to buy the player from the other team for 10s of millions) and they haven't even moved out of Stamford Bridge etc. Manchester City's owner has put in about the same money to win them the championship last season - and are something like 15 points behind Manchester United this season, so he needs to spend more.

Sport, and the English Premiership makes NFL seem like Walmart, is mega money.

Online DaveS

  • Shuttle program observer
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7755
  • Sweden
  • Liked: 281
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #357 on: 02/27/2013 11:48 AM »
- former NASA astronaut Dr Jonathan Clark.
He's not a former astronaut but a former flight surgeon. He was married to Laurel Clark, one of the STS-107 crew members.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2013 11:58 AM by DaveS »
"For Sardines, space is no problem!"
-1996 Astronaut class slogan

"We're rolling in the wrong direction but for the right reasons"
-USA engineer about the rollback of Discovery prior to the STS-114 Return To Flight mission

Offline R7

  • Propulsophile
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2738
    • Don't worry.. we can still be fans of OSC and SNC
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 663
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #358 on: 02/27/2013 11:49 AM »
Sport, and the English Premiership makes NFL seem like Walmart, is mega money.

Exactly. And why? Because for every space geek there are about ten thousand football enthusiasts. Good for moving serious money by sports, bad for crowd funding Mars trips (or convincing investors/sponsor to do it).
AD·ASTRA·ASTRORVM·GRATIA

Offline Atlan

  • Member
  • Posts: 69
  • Europe
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 3
I said it already...we need a space sport :) 0-G Ball in an Bigelow Module or regattas on a Venus-Mars flyby trajectory :)
Your mind is software. Program it.
Your body is a shell. Change it.
Death is a disease. Cure it.
Extinction is approaching. Fight it.

Tags: