Author Topic: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread  (Read 51793 times)

Offline apace

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #20 on: 02/21/2013 12:18 PM »
inspirationmarsfoundation.org and .com were registered .. today .. by a norwegian fellow. Member of Mars expedition or fast domain name entrepreneurship?

Foundation was registered in Delaware end of january this year. So it looks like more like a domain grabber than someone involved. I'm sure, the foundation has already the domains they wanted.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #21 on: 02/21/2013 12:27 PM »
* Bigelow hab module;
* Hydrolox kick stage (maybe a dual-engine Centaur as per Golden Spike's idea);
* SEP sustainer;
* Remote assembly at EML-2;
* CST-100 or Dragon CRV, launched to EML-2 by Falcon Heavy.

...  it's their lives and money to risk.

Can Tito afford even one item from that list? Rich man but IIRC not a billionaire.

A super-cheap free-return flyby mission with one or two crew involves just a dual Dragon (Dragonrider and Dragon-lab), the Dragonrider having the SEP sustainer motors in its trunk and the initial impulse being provided by a series of stacked metholox Falcon Heavy upper stages.

Naturally, this would be even riskier as there would be less margin for contingency supplies and weight/cost limits might mean there is no effective abort-during-escape burn option.
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Offline daj24

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #22 on: 02/21/2013 01:39 PM »
  Sure it's dangerous.  But come on, what isn't?  Now don't jump on me as being insensitive but lets get real.  Last year in the US alone over 32000 people died just commuting in their autos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year).  Thatís about 90 people per day.  And we are going to get all angsty if one or two don't make it in a LOC on a very adventurist mission?  If the chances of success were good I would give it a go!  We have become very risk adverse as a nation.  Yet we still do mountain climbing, skydiving, base jumping, etc. so what is wrong with a little bit of Mars fly-bying? 
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #23 on: 02/21/2013 01:46 PM »
May I ask one of our gurus here to make some calculations how a voyage of 501 days looks like with a start in 2018? Fly-by? Mars orbit? Anything else?

There's what looks to be a relevant set of tables at http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/sched.html but I haven't looked at them closely yet.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #24 on: 02/21/2013 01:53 PM »
I think it is a trip for some mice or something.
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Offline Blackstar

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #25 on: 02/21/2013 01:53 PM »
  Sure it's dangerous.  But come on, what isn't?  Now don't jump on me as being insensitive but lets get real.  Last year in the US alone over 32000 people died just commuting in their autos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year).  Thatís about 90 people per day. 

This is a lousy way to make an argument. Yeah, maybe 90 people per day die in auto accidents, but what is the death rate per journey? If somebody told you that there was a 50% chance that you would be killed every time you got behind the wheel of your car would you ever drive? At what point is that accident rate low enough for you to do it? Would you do it if there was only a 1% fatality rate? (Work it out in your head. You'll realize that even at 1%, there's a pretty good chance you'll be dead in a few years.)

You're making an absolutist comparison when a relative comparison is called for.

Offline ChefPat

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #26 on: 02/21/2013 02:12 PM »
May I ask one of our gurus here to make some calculations how a voyage of 501 days looks like with a start in 2018? Fly-by? Mars orbit? Anything else?

There's what looks to be a relevant set of tables at http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/sched.html but I haven't looked at them closely yet.
According to this it can't be done in 501 days.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #27 on: 02/21/2013 02:14 PM »
As I've mentioned to a few people offline, there's going to be an IEEE paper discussing the mission that will be presented in about two weeks at their aerospace conference. Jeff Foust was able to dig that out and get a copy, and provides some details here:

http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/02/21/new-insights-on-that-private-crewed-mars-mission/

Key points (that I feel ok sharing since Jeff made them public):

* Two person mission
* Free-return trajectory that flies by Mars
* Launched on a Falcon Heavy
* Modified Dragon spacecraft
* Privately funded, but leveraging NASA expertise in a few key technical areas (TPS and ECLSS)

While I'm not a manned spacecraft guru by any stretch of the imagination, my read of the paper left me feeling pretty confident that the idea was technically feasible (ambitious? yes. balsy? yes. aggressive mass targets? yes. achievable? probably.)

~Jon
« Last Edit: 02/21/2013 02:16 PM by jongoff »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #28 on: 02/21/2013 02:24 PM »
No habitat module?

Offline DLR

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #29 on: 02/21/2013 02:29 PM »
If it's a flyby with a single Dragon spacecraft, I give this a greater chance of becoming a reality than the Golden Spike Lunar proposal. All you need is a Falcon Heavy and a modified Dragon with a beefed-up ECLSS and TPS.

It could fly, if they find sponsors and if Falcon Heavy is ready till 2018. Otherwise they'll have to try again in 2031.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #30 on: 02/21/2013 02:31 PM »
As I've mentioned to a few people offline, there's going to be an IEEE paper discussing the mission that will be presented in about two weeks at their aerospace conference. Jeff Foust was able to dig that out and get a copy, and provides some details here:

http://www.newspacejournal.com/2013/02/21/new-insights-on-that-private-crewed-mars-mission/

Key points (that I feel ok sharing since Jeff made them public):

* Two person mission
* Free-return trajectory that flies by Mars
* Launched on a Falcon Heavy
* Modified Dragon spacecraft
* Privately funded, but leveraging NASA expertise in a few key technical areas (TPS and ECLSS)

While I'm not a manned spacecraft guru by any stretch of the imagination, my read of the paper left me feeling pretty confident that the idea was technically feasible (ambitious? yes. balsy? yes. aggressive mass targets? yes. achievable? probably.)

~Jon
Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards). If you can get people who don't mind being cramped for a year and a half... Maybe pick really small people? ;)

But seriously, this is within the realm of the possible.
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #31 on: 02/21/2013 02:39 PM »
No habitat module?

I guess it's doable but the lack of room for exercise equipment will probably mean an unpleasant return to gravity. :o


Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards).

Robot, don't forget that was a Mir mission.  That means a much larger living space and exercise equipment to stop muscle and bone degeneration.  I'm sure a little mitigation can be achieved by use of medicines and food supplements but the very tight mass budget will make it difficult to do as much as I'm sure most space medical experts would be happy with.

Oh, it's doable but it would probably mean a long hospital stay after splash down/landing.  I'd still be happier with a Dragonlab at the other end for more consumables storage space and room for exercise equipment and maybe even some in-flight science equipment.

My preferred escape burn configuration: [EDS1][EDS2][Dragonlab][Dragonrider][In-flightPropulsionUnit]
« Last Edit: 02/21/2013 02:48 PM by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline apace

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #32 on: 02/21/2013 02:39 PM »
Put a BEAM on top of it and you would like have a nice spacecraft to fly with it...

Online guckyfan

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #33 on: 02/21/2013 02:41 PM »
  Sure it's dangerous.  But come on, what isn't?  Now don't jump on me as being insensitive but lets get real.  Last year in the US alone over 32000 people died just commuting in their autos (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year).  Thatís about 90 people per day. 

This is a lousy way to make an argument. Yeah, maybe 90 people per day die in auto accidents, but what is the death rate per journey? If somebody told you that there was a 50% chance that you would be killed every time you got behind the wheel of your car would you ever drive? At what point is that accident rate low enough for you to do it? Would you do it if there was only a 1% fatality rate? (Work it out in your head. You'll realize that even at 1%, there's a pretty good chance you'll be dead in a few years.)

You're making an absolutist comparison when a relative comparison is called for.

Who is making the wrong comparison here?

Would I use my car to communte every day with a 1% chance of death? Certainly not.

Would I take that ride to Mars with a 1% chance of death? Certainly yes.


Offline spectre9

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #34 on: 02/21/2013 02:42 PM »
So who's the billionaire?

Online guckyfan

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #35 on: 02/21/2013 02:44 PM »
I guess it's doable but the lack of room for exercise equipment will probably mean an unpleasant return to gravity. :o

Some elastic ribbons can make nice exercise equipment. Maybe a vibrator plate could fit into the weight budget. I have high hopes for those for long microgravity trips.

Offline StephenB

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #36 on: 02/21/2013 02:52 PM »
501 days? Levi's sponsorship? Remember, you heard it here first. ;)

Offline spectre9

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #37 on: 02/21/2013 02:59 PM »
Doesn't pass the Jerry Maguire test it seems..... NEXT!

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #38 on: 02/21/2013 03:02 PM »
...

Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards).

Robot, don't forget that was a Mir mission.  That means a much larger living space and exercise equipment to stop muscle and bone degeneration.  I'm sure a little mitigation can be achieved by use of medicines and food supplements but the very tight mass budget will make it difficult to do as much as I'm sure most space medical experts would be happy with. ...
The Mir guys just had an exercise bike and resistive/compressive garments, could easily fit in a Dragon. I don't believe they had the resistance training or treadmill of ISS.
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #39 on: 02/21/2013 03:15 PM »
...

Looks possible, and only just /slightly/ outside of current long-duration spaceflight experience (current max is 438 days, and the cosmonaut was still able to walk afterwards).

Robot, don't forget that was a Mir mission.  That means a much larger living space and exercise equipment to stop muscle and bone degeneration.  I'm sure a little mitigation can be achieved by use of medicines and food supplements but the very tight mass budget will make it difficult to do as much as I'm sure most space medical experts would be happy with. ...

The Mir guys just had an exercise bike and resistive/compressive garments, could easily fit in a Dragon. I don't believe they had the resistance training or treadmill of ISS.

Yeah, but don't forget all the other things that also have to fit in there - specifically 500 days' consumables for two crew.  I'm pretty sure that, at least at launch, they'll be wedged in their smaller-than-normal-spec seats like the astronauts were during Project Gemini and will literally have to eat themselves free over a period of months.  Yes, I'm saying that they'll be trapped in their launch couches for a very, very long time.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2013 03:16 PM by Ben the Space Brit »
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