Author Topic: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread  (Read 85594 times)

Offline Dalhousie

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2057
  • Liked: 251
  • Likes Given: 306
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #280 on: 02/25/2013 09:36 AM »
Trying to put free volumes into terms people can visualise.

2.5 m3 ~ domestic shower cubical (or airline toilet)

3.7 m3 ~ domestic toilet cubical

6.3 m ~ walk in wardrobe

7.5 m3 ~ on-suite

15 m3  ~ domestic bathroom

23 m3 ~ very small hotel room, no bathroom

30 m3 ~ small hotel room & on-suite

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

Not everyone in the world lives in first world accomodations. See for example http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084971/Hong-Kongs-cage-homes-Tens-thousands-living-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html.

But those people don’t spend the whole time in those hutches.  They can go outside (to work, to the shops, or simply to exercise), have communal living and hygiene facilities.  There are even photos in that article of these spaces.  No comparison with two people going to Mars in a Dragon.

Quote
I agree that two people in a dragon stuffed full of consumables is probably taking it a bit too far, but attaching another 10m^3 of volume via a lightweight pressurized habitat like the bigelow BEAM, or reducing the crew to one, it becomes borderline plausible.

I agree, it is just possible, especially as BEAM is supposedly 16 m3. 

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.

 It is the tolerable lower limit.  Anything less is intolerable.  Five hundred days in the free space of a large walk-in wardrobe. It is also the free space. Triple it for pressurised volume. 

Why should free volume be only 1/3 of pressurized volume? You need a certain volume for life support and consumables. But everything you add in addition to that, like a small inflatable module is pure free space, no?
[/quote]

That was my memory of the rule of thumb relationship given in Larson and Pranke WRT long duration spaceflight. I have double checked (chapters 6, 12 and 18) and it is more like ˝, so not quite as bad as I thought.  Storing consumables in the trunk would help. But even in a basic Dragon for Earth orbit missions equipment takes up a quarter of the total pressurised volume, as has already been stated.  It’s already below the tolerable limit for a long duration flight.

So yes, an inflatable would help! How much volume would an uninflated BEAM take up in the trunk?  Would there be sufficient volume left over for the breathing gases, water, propellant and systems?

Three more days till we get answers! I hope....
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Offline R7

  • Propulsophile
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2738
    • Don't worry.. we can still be fans of OSC and SNC
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 663
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #281 on: 02/25/2013 10:04 AM »
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? ...)
all the land is claimed by one nation or another

*raising nitpicking finger* Marie Byrd Land is still up for grabs.

But Antarctica is poor long term Mars simulator. Mars isn't pitch black half the year, quite nice actually at the equator.
AD·ASTRA·ASTRORVM·GRATIA

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2191
  • Canada
  • Liked: 281
  • Likes Given: 434
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #282 on: 02/25/2013 10:19 AM »
I think the Bigelow BEAM is a non-starter for this mission. From the various media tidbits, only one Falcon Heavy is involved. Basically all the supplies for the mission will have to be in place at launch. So the BEAM got to be filled with supplies and be inflated.

I posted up thread about using the initial small Cygnus Pressurized module as the hab. It would fit inside an extended Dragon trunk. The PCM got internal volume of 18 cubic meters.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6960
  • A spaceflight fan
  • London, UK
  • Liked: 535
  • Likes Given: 610
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #283 on: 02/25/2013 10:31 AM »
There are a lot of yellow flags on this one; it's going to be hard to meet the launch window and the proposed architecture is just barely on the nice side of 'possible/impossible'.  I really don't think that doing this with just a Dragon is practicable.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

~*~*~*~

The Space Shuttle Program - 1981-2011

The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6317
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1577
  • Likes Given: 1386
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #284 on: 02/25/2013 10:34 AM »
I think the Bigelow BEAM is a non-starter for this mission. From the various media tidbits, only one Falcon Heavy is involved. Basically all the supplies for the mission will have to be in place at launch. So the BEAM got to be filled with supplies and be inflated.

I posted up thread about using the initial small Cygnus Pressurized module as the hab. It would fit inside an extended Dragon trunk. The PCM got internal volume of 18 cubic meters.

And what would be the weight of that module compared to a BEAM? Certainly a lot more, too much for the mission. It would be possible to store most of the consumables in Dragon for launch and transfer it to the BEAM after Mars insertion once it is inflated. Part of the consumables could already be in the deflated module.

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2191
  • Canada
  • Liked: 281
  • Likes Given: 434
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #285 on: 02/25/2013 11:31 AM »
I think the Bigelow BEAM is a non-starter for this mission. From the various media tidbits, only one Falcon Heavy is involved. Basically all the supplies for the mission will have to be in place at launch. So the BEAM got to be filled with supplies and be inflated.

I posted up thread about using the initial small Cygnus Pressurized module as the hab. It would fit inside an extended Dragon trunk. The PCM got internal volume of 18 cubic meters.

And what would be the weight of that module compared to a BEAM? Certainly a lot more, too much for the mission. It would be possible to store most of the consumables in Dragon for launch and transfer it to the BEAM after Mars insertion once it is inflated. Part of the consumables could already be in the deflated module.


According to the Thales web site. The PCM have dry mass of 1500 kg with usable volume of about 18 m3.

That compares with the BEAM dry mass of 1360 kg with usable volume of about 16 m3 from the Bigelow web site.

So the PCM is 140 kg  more than the BEAM, but you get 2 more m3.

Using the PCM give you a total of 23 m3 that you can place the supplies in at launch. According to someone up thread the Dragon will have 7 m3 of livable volume. So 18 m3 in the PCM + 7m3 in the Dragon min a couple of m3 for the crew give you 23 m3 of storage. So the 2 crew members will each have about 11 m3  of supplies.

You suggestion of transferring supplies from the Dragon will reduce the supplies available from what can be place in an un-inflated BEAM plus what can place in the Dragon. Not even certain you can place anything inside un-inflated BEAM. Hopefully @Orbital Debris can enlighten us on that.

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6317
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1577
  • Likes Given: 1386
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #286 on: 02/25/2013 12:06 PM »
According to the Thales web site. The PCM have dry mass of 1500 kg with usable volume of about 18 m3.

That compares with the BEAM dry mass of 1360 kg with usable volume of about 16 m3 from the Bigelow web site.

So the PCM is 140 kg  more than the BEAM, but you get 2 more m3.

Using the PCM give you a total of 23 m3 that you can place the supplies in at launch. According to someone up thread the Dragon will have 7 m3 of livable volume. So 18 m3 in the PCM + 7m3 in the Dragon min a couple of m3 for the crew give you 23 m3 of storage. So the 2 crew members will each have about 11 m3  of supplies.

You suggestion of transferring supplies from the Dragon will reduce the supplies available from what can be place in an un-inflated BEAM plus what can place in the Dragon. Not even certain you can place anything inside un-inflated BEAM. Hopefully @Orbital Debris can enlighten us on that.

That does sound like an interesting alternative to the BEAM. BTW no need to fit it into the Dragon trunk unless total length becomes an issue. That module BEAM or PCM needs to be attached to the stage for the Dragon to connect to it.

Edit again: Unless the total weight of the PCM would be enough to allow connecting.

Edit: corrected quote stacking.
« Last Edit: 02/25/2013 12:08 PM by guckyfan »

Offline R7

  • Propulsophile
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2738
    • Don't worry.. we can still be fans of OSC and SNC
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 663
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #287 on: 02/25/2013 04:53 PM »
Neither Bigelow nor BEAM are mentioned in the IEEE paper.

Is identity of the Prime Integrator specified?
AD·ASTRA·ASTRORVM·GRATIA

Offline mrmandias

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 507
  • US
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #288 on: 02/25/2013 05:21 PM »
I thought Musk famously exclaimed that if you tried to go to Mars in Dragon, you'd come back "bag" (not quite sure what it's British slang for, but I assume he meant all worn out)

So I don't see why he'd agree to participate in Tito's adventure unless there was scope to create some kind of improved hab for the journey.

Yes, a disastrous outcome is extremely bad publicity for the Dragon.  Musk will probably have to be sold on the viability of the mission before he'd go along.

Offline mrmandias

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 507
  • US
  • Liked: 29
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #289 on: 02/25/2013 05:25 PM »
Some comments on paying for it.

I think the first step assuming a detailed plan would be recruiting a major billionaire anchor. A serious 10B plus heavyweight like Allen,Page, Brin,Bezos. Tito himself has enough money and credibility to get his calls answered but no where near enough to anchor the project.

This anchor would agree to take on the role of project backer/guarantor but wouldn't expect it to end up costing him anything. He would provider his amex unobtanium card to assure the project will happen...and create a team to take advantage of the confidence that this is a real thing to raise the 1B or so budget.

Given a "real" project guaranteed by a guy with the credit line to make it so...I think making a billion from media and marketing sales would pretty trivial.

The reality shows based on Mars Inspiration would start within months, 4years before the launch. Thousands of people would sign up to compete for the chance to risk their lives on this mission. This show would sell in tv markets all over the world in variations. As the publicity built on itself lot's of brands would compete for sponsorships and endorsements.

100's of millions were made by shows with trivial artificial risks and politics. This stuff is human and real. It would pull in billions before the launch over more than 4 years...before even selling the rights to coverage of the life and death drama of the final crew members adventure.

Billionaires are used to getting most stuff free. Rolexes come in gift baskets as party favors because rolex hopes they will be seen wearing it. The anchor sponsor of this would reasonably expect to pay nothing in the end and maybe make something.

Spacex would benefit enormously from being the hardware provider making it possible. Priceless free publicity and they get paid regular rates.

!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .


Offline Ludus

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 779
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 142
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #290 on: 02/25/2013 07:09 PM »

!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .


I suspect a couple would maximize interest and media value. I think people picture the Apollo era media coverage and the fact people got bored quickly...but it was a different global media environment and not designed for commercial benefit. People also are focused on media and marketing during the mission itself and I think it could easily pay for itself just in the run-up....if it's a completely serious funded project rather than the typical speculation.

If It was a weeklong lunar free return I'd actually expect some billionaire interest in being a passenger. Inspiration I suspect is to arduous and dangerous for that...but not for billionaire backing and a lot of other volunteers.

Online rklaehn

  • telemetry plumber
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1205
  • germany
    • www.heavens-above.com
  • Liked: 88
  • Likes Given: 154
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #291 on: 02/25/2013 07:31 PM »
So yes, an inflatable would help! How much volume would an uninflated BEAM take up in the trunk?  Would there be sufficient volume left over for the breathing gases, water, propellant and systems?

The BEAM fits into a standard sized trunk. So if you would use an extended trunk you would have some more room.



Although it would be a major redesign to use the trunk space for consumables. AFAIK, the standard dragon has no fluid connections from the trunk to the capsule, since the trunk is just empty space and attachment for the solar array.

Quote
Three more days till we get answers! I hope....

As I said, I suspect they want to do it without any extra living space.
Try the ISS 3D visualization at http://www.heavens-above.com/ISS_3D.aspx

Offline Hauerg

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 679
  • Berndorf, Austria
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 1031
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #292 on: 02/25/2013 07:45 PM »
...

Because an unmanned mission would need to be a landing mission, and we "know" that life support is involved. So... oh, maybe we are back to Elons first vision of a mission to mars, the little plant thing....

Why would an unmanned mission "need" to be a landing mission? And "life support" doesn't mean human life (ask Laika, or Ham!). Most of the life within Biosphere 2 was non-human...
Agree on "life support", basically that's what I wrote above.
Why I think an "unmanned" mission would need to include landing? Imagine an unmanned mission which bis just a swingby flight. Freezing samples etc. makes a lot of sense. Scientifically speaking. But no "inspiration" at all. Not even something for the record books. So either manned or landing. And - of course - not both.

Offline apace

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 810
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #293 on: 02/25/2013 07:47 PM »
Agree on "life support", basically that's what I wrote above.
Why I think an "unmanned" mission would need to include landing? Imagine an unmanned mission which bis just a swingby flight. Freezing samples etc. makes a lot of sense. Scientifically speaking. But no "inspiration" at all. Not even something for the record books. So either manned or landing. And - of course - not both.

Why you talk about a unmanned mission? Manned is confirmed by the IEEE papers.

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8097
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2872
  • Likes Given: 686
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #294 on: 02/25/2013 09:19 PM »
!  Preferably a batchelor billionaire, and the contest is for a woman to join him . . .

Astronaut Needs A Wife.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Ludus

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 779
  • Liked: 274
  • Likes Given: 142
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #295 on: 02/25/2013 10:23 PM »
I suspect that when you all see the paper you're going to be disappointed. It is a basic technical feasibility assessment, essentially saying that it is "possible." It leaves an awful lot of questions unanswered.

I just find it exciting from somebody like Tito who managed to get to the ISS against the opposition of NASA and has money and business credibility. A feasibility assessment with technical detail is all I'd really expect at this stage.

Offline jongoff

  • Recovering Rocket Plumber/Space Entrepreneur
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6020
  • Lafayette/Broomfield, CO
  • Liked: 1993
  • Likes Given: 683
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #296 on: 02/25/2013 10:28 PM »
I suspect that when you all see the paper you're going to be disappointed. It is a basic technical feasibility assessment, essentially saying that it is "possible." It leaves an awful lot of questions unanswered.

I'll admit that holding a big press conference unless they have something more than what was in the paper to talk about seems somewhat premature. As a feasibility assessment I thought the paper (or at least the draft version I've got) was pretty interesting. I had a couple of questions myself that I don't know if they answered in the final version or will discuss at the press conference. They've got my curiosity piqued to see where they're going with this.

~Jon

Offline jongoff

  • Recovering Rocket Plumber/Space Entrepreneur
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6020
  • Lafayette/Broomfield, CO
  • Liked: 1993
  • Likes Given: 683
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #297 on: 02/26/2013 12:57 AM »
And as I mentioned before, they clearly need NASA's help (and NASA's money). Why should the agency give it to them?

Umm...while I clearly agree that they need NASA's help, it does not necessarily follow that they need NASA's money. The two main areas I remember them saying they wanted to work with NASA on was the TPS testing/validation for the high-speed reentry, and I think some additional input on the life-support system design. The former could readily be done as a Reimbursable Space Act Agreement if NASA didn't see any value to their own programs from the testing. As for the life support development input, that could be Reimbursable by this group, or if NASA was sufficiently interested in what they were doing (say for relevance to their own manned BEO activities) I guess they could do a non-reimbursable SAA effort.

I 100% agree that they'll have an almost impossible time doing this without accessing NASA expertise, but the way you wrote that last comment it made it look like they have no choice but to hit NASA up for money, which was not at all clear to me.

~Jon

Offline spectre9

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2403
  • Australia
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 66
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #298 on: 02/26/2013 01:11 AM »
NASA doesn't make heat shields, Lockheed built the largest one ever for MSL.

SpaceX uses their own version of PICA, PICA-X

This is technology that already exists in the commercial world. Don't see why NASA is needed.

NASA only works with commercial crew as an oversight to make sure the companies stick to the strict NASA requirements.

Offline jongoff

  • Recovering Rocket Plumber/Space Entrepreneur
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6020
  • Lafayette/Broomfield, CO
  • Liked: 1993
  • Likes Given: 683
Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #299 on: 02/26/2013 01:21 AM »
NASA doesn't make heat shields, Lockheed built the largest one ever for MSL.

SpaceX uses their own version of PICA, PICA-X

This is technology that already exists in the commercial world. Don't see why NASA is needed.

NASA only works with commercial crew as an oversight to make sure the companies stick to the strict NASA requirements.

Hypersonic test and analysis capabilities for a 14km/s reentry.

SpaceX leveraged NASA help in developing PICA-X, as has pretty much everyone else. Helping private entities leverage esoteric NASA expertise to enable private/commercial projects is an example of NASA doing things right, IMO.

~Jon

Tags: