Author Topic: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread  (Read 85591 times)

Offline simonbp

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #260 on: 02/24/2013 07:38 PM »
Presumably, any NASA "help" would be through an unfunded SAA?

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #261 on: 02/24/2013 09:57 PM »
"It is assumed that the ECLSS hardware would be required to be designed, developed, and delivered to the Prime integrator approximately two years ahead of the launch date to accommodate system level integration, and sufficient testing to thoroughly vet the practical operating characteristics, limits and weaknesses. This drives an ECLSS hardware delivery date of February, 2016."

Also says:

"The volume and mass considerations have limited the crew number to two individuals. At a current value of roughly 7m3, the representative spacecraft free volume is deemed adequate. However, given the requirement for food and water storage and additional equipment and access, the free volume could shrink considerably. Prior studies we have performed indicated that for this mission duration, crew volumes of less than 3-5 m3 per person would border on untenable. Available crew volume is a significant consideration for this mission."


So one Dragon, two people.  The basic Dragon has a pressurised volume of 10 m3, 7m3 would be the free volume, which seems about right.  That is 3.5 m3 per person, which indeed "would border on the untenable" for 500 days. Reduce the volume still further with all that is needed for for those 500 days and it becomes impossible (except perhaps as a mere survival exercise).

Whoever this is quote is from seems to recognise this.
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #262 on: 02/25/2013 12:08 AM »
Trying to put free volumes into terms people can visualise.

2.5 m3 ~ domestic shower cubical (or airline toilet)

3.7 m3 ~ domestic toilet cubical

6.3 m ~ walk in wardrobe

7.5 m3 ~ on-suite

15 m3  ~ domestic bathroom

23 m3 ~ very small hotel room, no bathroom

30 m3 ~ small hotel room & on-suite

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.



"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #263 on: 02/25/2013 12:21 AM »
You can use volume more efficiently in space. And it isn't linear with number of people, since you can have small dedicated volumes and larger shared volumes, using space more efficiently.

If this wasn't true (or if the opposite were true), then you'd simply segregate the two crew to each have half the total volume and no shared spaces.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Bubbinski

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #264 on: 02/25/2013 12:23 AM »
So if they only use the Dragon capsule on this Mars mission, the astronauts would be living in the equivalent of a toilet cubicle each for 500 plus days?  One of the Gemini crews spent two weeks with the equivalent of a phone booth each for a living space, but...a year and a half? 

I'm not sure how doable that is.  I would think some kind of habitat module would have to be involved.  But we'll see what they announce on Wednesday.
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline joek

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #265 on: 02/25/2013 12:25 AM »
Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.
« Last Edit: 02/25/2013 12:26 AM by joek »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #266 on: 02/25/2013 12:26 AM »
This isn't going to be a luxury cruise, that's for sure.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #267 on: 02/25/2013 02:19 AM »
Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.

 It is the tolerable lower limit.  Anything less is intolerable.  Five hundred days in the free space of a large walk-in wardrobe. It is also the free space. Triple it for pressurised volume. 
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Online sanman

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #268 on: 02/25/2013 05:21 AM »
I thought Musk famously exclaimed that if you tried to go to Mars in Dragon, you'd come back "bag" (not quite sure what it's British slang for, but I assume he meant all worn out)

So I don't see why he'd agree to participate in Tito's adventure unless there was scope to create some kind of improved hab for the journey.

And look at it this way - if Tito did succeed even on just a circum-Mars flyby, then it would pave the way for other jet-set millionaire adventurers to follow in those footsteps. This could be the new "climbing Everest" trip for the next generation of fearless intrepid achievers.


(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? At least it's closer and has a damn atmosphere, if nothing else)
« Last Edit: 02/25/2013 05:22 AM by sanman »

Offline Ludus

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #269 on: 02/25/2013 05:37 AM »
This mission seems to be the Zubrin FH Mars mission minus the two FH launches needed to send the lander and the return vehicle. That design had a two man crew in a Dragon with a Bigelow module like a BEAM tucked into the Dragons trunk space.

.
Quote
Here are further answers relating to concerns that have been advanced.

1. Habitable volume.
As noted, if the Dragon capsule alone is used, this provides 5 m3 living volume per crew member, which compares to 2 m3 per crew on an Apollo capsule, 9 m3 per crew member on the Space Shuttle, or 8 m3 per crew member on a German U-Boat (Type VII, the fleet workhorse) during WWII. This would be uncomfortable, but ultimately, workable by a truly dedicated crew. However these limits can be transcended. The Dragon has a 14m3 cargo area hold below the aeroshield. Into this we could pack an inflatable hab module, in deflated form, but which if inflated, could be as much as 8 m in diameter and perhaps 10 m long, thereby providing 3 decks, with added volume of 502 m3 and a total floor space equal to 1.5 times as much as that in the Mars Society's MDRS or FMARS stations, which have proved adequate in size for crews of 6. After Trans Mars injection, the Dragon would pull away from the cargo section and turn around, then return to mate its docking hatch with one in the inflatable. It would then pull the inflatable out of the cargo hold, much as the Apollo command module pulled out the LEM. The inflatable could then be inflated. The other end of the inflatable would be attached to the tether, which is connected to the TMI stage, for use in creating artificial gravity.

Most of the points that Zubrin made for that idea would apply to Tito's mission. On balance this free return version would be safer. No greater radiation risk and less risk from failure of other critical systems since it's much simpler.

It seems likely that any obvious problems with that element of Zubrins plan would have been covered by now, which leads me to think this mission is plausible.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #270 on: 02/25/2013 05:46 AM »
...
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? ...)

There are actually a lot of reasons you can't do that, most of them political/legal (it's treated as a kind of giant international park/reserve... you can't do any mining, nothing can be completely permanent; all the land is claimed by one nation or another so if you violate these rules you're asking for trouble). Though I would support an effort to do so.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline simonbp

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #271 on: 02/25/2013 05:50 AM »
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? At least it's closer and has a damn atmosphere, if nothing else)

Because someone has done it before. Noone has been beyond Earth orbit, let alone to Mars. We remember Amundsen and Scott, not Joe Blow the modern glaciologist who goes down to the station named after them. A modern scientist might do more interesting science than early explorers, but is only able to because the explorers went first.

We need crazy people like Tito to break psychological barriers and allow humanity to progress. It's been technologically possible to something like this for decades, but noone's been willing to risk going first. If they pull this off, and especially if they pull it off for cheap, that barrier will break, and schemes like Musk's Mars colony will make a lot more sense.
« Last Edit: 02/25/2013 05:51 AM by simonbp »

Online sanman

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #272 on: 02/25/2013 06:05 AM »
I think that the strenuous conditions/duration of a circum-Mars mission would require Bigelow's biggest hab, the BA-2100/Olympus, or maybe even something larger. Bigelow's hab ambitions seem limited only by the size of available launch vehicles, and if/when the Falcon Heavy successor or MCT comes around then I'd bet he'd go in for an even bigger hab to fit the max payload capacity. The bigger the better, of course.

Offline Ludus

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #273 on: 02/25/2013 06:06 AM »
Some comments on paying for it.

I think the first step assuming a detailed plan would be recruiting a major billionaire anchor. A serious 10B plus heavyweight like Allen,Page, Brin,Bezos. Tito himself has enough money and credibility to get his calls answered but no where near enough to anchor the project.

This anchor would agree to take on the role of project backer/guarantor but wouldn't expect it to end up costing him anything. He would provider his amex unobtanium card to assure the project will happen...and create a team to take advantage of the confidence that this is a real thing to raise the 1B or so budget.

Given a "real" project guaranteed by a guy with the credit line to make it so...I think making a billion from media and marketing sales would pretty trivial.

The reality shows based on Mars Inspiration would start within months, 4years before the launch. Thousands of people would sign up to compete for the chance to risk their lives on this mission. This show would sell in tv markets all over the world in variations. As the publicity built on itself lot's of brands would compete for sponsorships and endorsements.

100's of millions were made by shows with trivial artificial risks and politics. This stuff is human and real. It would pull in billions before the launch over more than 4 years...before even selling the rights to coverage of the life and death drama of the final crew members adventure.

Billionaires are used to getting most stuff free. Rolexes come in gift baskets as party favors because rolex hopes they will be seen wearing it. The anchor sponsor of this would reasonably expect to pay nothing in the end and maybe make something.

Spacex would benefit enormously from being the hardware provider making it possible. Priceless free publicity and they get paid regular rates.

Offline Ludus

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #274 on: 02/25/2013 06:12 AM »
I think that the strenuous conditions/duration of a circum-Mars mission would require Bigelow's biggest hab, the BA-2100/Olympus, or maybe even something larger. Bigelow's hab ambitions seem limited only by the size of available launch vehicles, and if/when the Falcon Heavy successor or MCT comes around then I'd bet he'd go in for an even bigger hab to fit the max payload capacity. The bigger the better, of course.

Everything but the Dragon trunk sized 1K kg versions would mean multiple launches, multiplying cost and complexity. See Zubrin FH Mars mission.

Offline Ludus

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #275 on: 02/25/2013 06:16 AM »
...
(Why don't Tito & Co just go to Antarctica and build a city there? ...)

There are actually a lot of reasons you can't do that, most of them political/legal (it's treated as a kind of giant international park/reserve... you can't do any mining, nothing can be completely permanent; all the land is claimed by one nation or another so if you violate these rules you're asking for trouble). Though I would support an effort to do so.

...and of course there have been permanent stations there for many decades and it wouldn't make history or have any media or marketing value.

Online rklaehn

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #276 on: 02/25/2013 06:57 AM »
Trying to put free volumes into terms people can visualise.

2.5 m3 ~ domestic shower cubical (or airline toilet)

3.7 m3 ~ domestic toilet cubical

6.3 m ~ walk in wardrobe

7.5 m3 ~ on-suite

15 m3  ~ domestic bathroom

23 m3 ~ very small hotel room, no bathroom

30 m3 ~ small hotel room & on-suite

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

Not everyone in the world lives in first world accomodations. See for example http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084971/Hong-Kongs-cage-homes-Tens-thousands-living-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html.

I agree that two people in a dragon stuffed full of consumables is probably taking it a bit too far, but attaching another 10m^3 of volume via a lightweight pressurized habitat like the bigelow BEAM, or reducing the crew to one, it becomes borderline plausible.

Which of these do people think we can expect someone to live, exercise, prepare food, perform bodily functions and work in for 500 days?  Then double it for two people.

If you believe NASA's numbers, ~5.1m3/person "tolerable" for a 180-620 day mission duration.  Then again, a couple committed participants might do with less.

 It is the tolerable lower limit.  Anything less is intolerable.  Five hundred days in the free space of a large walk-in wardrobe. It is also the free space. Triple it for pressurised volume. 

Why should free volume be only 1/3 of pressurized volume? You need a certain volume for life support and consumables. But everything you add in addition to that, like a small inflatable module is pure free space, no?
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Offline kkattula

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #277 on: 02/25/2013 07:06 AM »
I was going to wait for the presser to comment, but I have to say I'll be disappointed if its just a fly-by. Seems a bit pointless. Huge effort and risk, for little reward.

How much more delta-v would be required to enter a highly elliptical orbit with a lowish perigee? Even if that took it from single FH to dual FH launches, the improved return would be worth it. IMO.

Plus added margin for supplies and a habitat module. Maybe even the possibility of a Phobos &/or Deimos rendezvous.

Mars orbit, moon(s) sample return, that would be inspirational!

Online sanman

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #278 on: 02/25/2013 07:16 AM »
I don't even see any of these "biodome" style simulated Mars trip research projects doing it in 10m3 per person. So somebody had better try to do a rehearsal for it here on the ground, rather than guinea-pigging themselves in space, where things could get ugly.


Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #279 on: 02/25/2013 07:57 AM »
Er... ...how do we know they're talking about a manned mission? Perhaps it's a demo flight by living creatures there and back again. Ideally, you'd kill off a sample and freeze it every now and then (75 soup-can containers containing shrimp, water, lights... ...freeze 'em hard and fast, one can a week, and do the science after splashdown). Or, just send seeds (animal sperm or plants) and distribute them a la the Moon Trees, one Mars Mouse and a Mars Tree to every school in the US...

Because an unmanned mission would need to be a landing mission, and we "know" that life support is involved. So... oh, maybe we are back to Elons first vision of a mission to mars, the little plant thing....

Why would an unmanned mission "need" to be a landing mission? And "life support" doesn't mean human life (ask Laika, or Ham!). Most of the life within Biosphere 2 was non-human...

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