Author Topic: Dennis Tito's Inspiration Mars Foundation Pre Announcement Thread  (Read 87767 times)

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #100 on: 02/21/2013 09:34 PM »
Maybe after the fifth or sixth of these types of announcements the space media stop being suckers for yet another unfunded dream flight (YAUDF?).

Well aren't we all suckers and dreamers? Isn't that why we visit this site so much, and make imaginary rockets to take us to mars even before the press conference. At least we can dream for a week :)

It's the media's job to be skeptical, not just regurgitate press releases.

If I want fiction, I'll read some Niven.
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #101 on: 02/21/2013 09:40 PM »
So what are your cost estimates for such a mission to start with?

Starting from the low side.

A Falcon Heavy, a Dragon, maybe a BEAM module. I really don't believe two people with all supplies including food, air, water, sponges for cleaning and clothes for 500 days can fit into a dragon. That would be 250 Million Dollar.

How much is an ECLSS and the mission software?

The part I really don't like is going to Venus orbit, with or without Venus there. The thermal system of Dragon will certainly need some upgrade.

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If I want fiction, I'll read some Niven.

Yes that too, an eBook with 500 novels. Add that to the price. ;D


Offline R7

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #102 on: 02/21/2013 09:46 PM »
Question: If you would get to go on 501 day Mars flyby trip (or be forced to  ;D), who would you pick to go with you (just one person) ?

I'm torn between Nigella Lawson and Rachael Ray. I want to eat well.
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Offline Orbiter

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #103 on: 02/21/2013 10:03 PM »
There's a press conference on the 27th, I'll wait to then to make assumptions. It's a cool idea though, I'd be more excited if it was to the moon because then it would have a fair chance of happening.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2013 10:04 PM by Orbiter »
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #104 on: 02/21/2013 10:13 PM »
So what are your cost estimates for such a mission to start with?

They need between $150M and $500M depending on how many freebies/favors they can pull in and how much risk reduction they have to do.

The bad news is, I think Dennis Tito is the poorest of all the orbital space tourists to fly.

Dennis Tito ~$200M
Mark Shuttleworth ~$500M
Gregory Olsen ~$3B
Anousheh Ansari ~$750M
Charles Simonyi ~$1B
Richard Garriott ~$1.2B
Guy Laliberté ~$2.6B

He'll have to liquidate his entire net worth to fund this himself.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #105 on: 02/21/2013 10:22 PM »
Starting from the low side.

A Falcon Heavy, a Dragon, maybe a BEAM module. I really don't believe two people with all supplies including food, air, water, sponges for cleaning and clothes for 500 days can fit into a dragon. That would be 250 Million Dollar.

How much is an ECLSS and the mission software?

You guys act like it's just buying off the shelf hardware. That's like saying that all you need to build a house is to just add up the cost of the land, nails, and lumber. You need to pay somebody to design and build it too.


Offline Atlan

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #106 on: 02/22/2013 01:33 AM »
This mission would actually give a lot of very valuable data on radiation, psychological and medical issues for long time space trips. If that wouldn't be a huge amount of problems solved for manned exploration with one mission, what is. This mission could actually, if everything works out, silence the sceptics and accelerate a mars landing mission and even if not give a lot of valuable data to make things better next time.

I am really excited about this now :D

EDIT: Do you really think its possible to do this with just a Dragon? I mean you have to store food,water(at least some), bigger life support, sanitation, spare parts etcetc and still have to fit 2 astronauts in there.
« Last Edit: 02/22/2013 01:51 AM by Atlan »
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Offline RocketmanUS

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #107 on: 02/22/2013 01:58 AM »
This mission would actually give a lot of very valuable data on radiation, psychological and medical issues for long time space trips. If that wouldn't be a huge amount of problems solved for manned exploration with one mission, what is. This mission could actually, if everything works out, silence the sceptics and accelerate a mars landing mission and even if not give a lot of valuable data to make things better next time.

I am really excited about this now :D

EDIT: Do you really think its possible to do this with just a Dragon? I mean you have to store food,water(at least some), bigger life support, sanitation, spare parts etcetc and still have to fit 2 astronauts in there.
Add habitat module.
1 ) Sanity
2 ) Time away from the other person ( also so one can sleep while the other is awake ).
3 ) consumables storage
4 ) back up life support
5 ) EVA ( for one or both ) ( suit port might be an option )
6 ) ect.

Edit:
Added radiation protection in hab module.
« Last Edit: 02/22/2013 02:28 AM by RocketmanUS »
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Offline Atlan

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #108 on: 02/22/2013 02:07 AM »
Well that seems most reasonable to me as well. Even something like BEAM would be a huge relief for the astronauts i think. My question was more based on the things i have read until now. I only read about one Dragon. I know i know we dont have any real info until the conference. I just asked out of curiosity if they could even consider an only-Dragon mission.
Your mind is software. Program it.
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Offline DougSpace

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #109 on: 02/22/2013 02:42 AM »
What about including a space suit and so opening the Dragon hatch early on, push out your supplies tied to a rope and so have more room.  Then about once a month, put on the suit, pull in another month's supply and push out a month's amount of trash.

Then, while passing by Venus & Mars, go for an EVA to get the full experience.

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #110 on: 02/22/2013 02:47 AM »
One Dragon, at least as presently defined, just isn't big enough to support one person for 500 days.  You would need at least 30 cubic m of pressurised, preferably more like 60, for this.  So some kind of transit module seems inevitable.
But I am cautiously excited about this.  You don't have to move existing technology very far to do this mission and the pyshcological barriers broken by it would be enormous.  Much like Gil Eanes rounding Cape Bojador.
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Offline RocketmanUS

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #111 on: 02/22/2013 02:50 AM »
What about including a space suit and so opening the Dragon hatch early on, push out your supplies tied to a rope and so have more room.  Then about once a month, put on the suit, pull in another month's supply and push out a month's amount of trash.

Then, while passing by Venus & Mars, go for an EVA to get the full experience.
Possible suit ports. Could also be used for bringing in items from outside or send items outside the space craft. It is cold or very hot outside so I don't know what if anything should be stored outside except garbage.

EVA for flyby not a bad idea ( prefer a landing  :) ).

For a hab module use a modified Dragon capsule ( not made for reentry ).
Trunk to attach to the EDS.
Hatch replace by suit ports.
Add solar panels.
Mars and beyond, human exploration
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Offline DougSpace

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #112 on: 02/22/2013 03:06 AM »
For when times get boring, how about "The View From Mars" or "The View Frim Venus".  The astronauts wade in to the day's news giving their own opinions about what should be done.  Although their opinions would be no better than anyone else's the fact alone that they're coming from another planet makes them worth more.

How about shooting commercials?  e.g. A blindfolded taste test between Coke and Pepsi or the like.

How about showing, for the first time, a TV program based upon the astronaut's training, or home life, or participation in Extreme Makeover ______?

How about a contest?  Pay $0.99 and get a chance to win whatever the lotto amount is.  The astronauts reach their hand into a bag and pull out the winning numbers one by one.

In other words, using some creativity, could opportunities for revenue be built in the system?

Offline joek

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #113 on: 02/22/2013 03:10 AM »
One Dragon, at least as presently defined, just isn't big enough to support one person for 500 days.  You would need at least 30 cubic m of pressurised, preferably more like 60, for this.  So some kind of transit module seems inevitable.

Based on NASA's extended mission requirements, a significant portion of which appears to be psychological needs?  Provisions and ECLSS should fit in a smaller volume--assuming "spartan" outfitting, as Jeff Foust from NewSpace Journal repoted...
Quote
According to the paper, existing environmental control and life support system (ECLSS) technologies would allow such a spacecraft to support two people for the mission, although in Spartan condition. “Crew comfort is limited to survival needs only. For example, sponge baths are acceptable, with no need for showers,” the paper states.

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #114 on: 02/22/2013 03:15 AM »
Even then I think they would be strugging to get the volume down to 20 cubic m.
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Offline Zero Zen

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #115 on: 02/22/2013 03:29 AM »
The man sure knows how to inspire, I like his spirit.

Psychological needs? Where is the passion to explore the unknown, to immerse one’s self in reaching beyond the horizon? Were I given the honor... I would gladly take such an undertaking, for to live means to risk one’s life for the things worth doing so for. I wonder how the crew selection is being conducted... such a dream... I most sincerely want to be a part of it.

Sadly being deployed I won't have the honor of attending the Q & A in Washington. I am earnestly looking forward to what comes of the conference.

I'd like to meet Mr. Dennis Tito, it's rare now a day that a man still dreams

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #116 on: 02/22/2013 03:48 AM »
The man sure knows how to inspire, I like his spirit.

Welcome to the forum.

I hope they inspire us with a funding stream this time.
« Last Edit: 02/22/2013 04:50 AM by QuantumG »
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Offline Afrocle

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #117 on: 02/22/2013 04:49 AM »
This sounds like a good idea that probably could cost $200 million to $300 million total to implement including the non recurring engineering and development costs. Using prices that we have seen elsewhere, a Mars free return trajectory mission could cost:

$120 million for a Falcon Heavy (with Raptor US??)
$30 million for a Dragon capsule
$20 million for a 1 - 2 ton Bigelow BEAM module stored in Dragon trunk
$20 million for Paragon ECLSS upgrades to Dragon/BEAM
$10 - $110 million in "other" development/operations costs
________
$200 - $300 million in total costs

The probability of successfully returning 2 people to Earth's surface after a free return trajectory to Mars could be 50% or higher if we look at the histories of probes launched to Mars or the histories of SpaceX Dragon and Falcon flights. If NASA helps, then probability of success may go up and costs (like using deep space communications network for free) might go down.

This would be great marketing for use of SpaceX, Bigelow, Paragon, and other human spaceflight technology similar to the jump in the commercial aviation industry in 1927 after Lindberg was successful on his flight. If the 1st mission is unsuccessful, then the costs should still be low enough that someone else (or the same group with Dennis Tito) could afford to finance a second attempt using better technology like solar electric propulsion, etc. (because the launch windows until 2031 would require a lot more delta V).

Space Adventures claimed to be close to signing 2 people for $300 million to do a commercial free return trajectory mission around the moon, so this commercial Mars mission should be well within the realm of immediate possibility and it might have future customers for a future repeatable business plan.


Offline Afrocle

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Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #118 on: 02/22/2013 05:08 AM »
I thought that I remembered reading somewhere that an Astronaut requires about 3 to 5 kg a day of consumables including oxygen, water, and food to survive in space. Regenerative life support that can recycle water or oxygen or even food should be able to lower these weights.

If the above is true, then the supplies should be 10 kg a day and 5,000 kg total to keep the 2 Astronauts alive for this 500 day trip to Mars and back if regenerative life support is not used.

I would assume that the whole point of having the Paragon founders from Biosphere-2 involved in this Mars flight would be to design an ECLSS that dramatically lowers this 5,000 kg of life support supplies to some figure much lower by regenerating oxygen, water, and potentially even some human waste into food.

The NASA-JPL papers on the SpaceX Red Dragon flights claim ~ 4,000 kg for the Dragon capsule, 1,000 kg in payload, and 2,000 kg in fuel to supersonically thrust Dragon to the Martian surface. This would mean that we roughly would need a Falcon Heavy (FH) to launch a 4,000 kg Dragon capsule, a 2,000 kg Bigelow BEAM-like module (in the Dragon trunk), and maximum 4,000-kg to 6,000-kg of other "supplies, people, payload, fuel, and stuff" to be within the 10,000 kg to 12,000 kg capability of an FH launch to Mars. The ECLSS from Paragon is going to be a key enabler to lower this weight of "supplies and stuff" to make this all work.

Offline simonbp

Re: Inspiration Mars Foundation Press Conference
« Reply #119 on: 02/22/2013 06:23 AM »
Welp, if they pull this off (I'll give it 10% chance, for what it's worth), EM-1 is going to look rather pathetic...

They could do better on the fund-raising side simply for the "new" factor: a company like Red Bull might pay a pretty penny to have their name on the first manned spacecraft to visit Mars... The nationality of the crew could be a factor too.

On a personal note, the trigger for me to get interested in orbital dynamics (to the point almost finishing a PhD in it) was a throwaway line in the "Case for Mars" where Zubrin claims that the delta v for Mars free-return is less than a lunar free-return. That's a bit of a stretch (it's technically true for very narrow windows), but the point is, this is not a delta v/propellant-limited mission. It is the systems (ECLSS, power, comm) that will really require the engineering work. I wonder how much of that SpaceX is willing to volunteer...
« Last Edit: 02/22/2013 06:25 AM by simonbp »

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