Author Topic: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia  (Read 140721 times)

Offline Wicky

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #560 on: 11/15/2014 01:03 PM »
So we can sumise that the Brazillians are in cahoots with the Martians...

Offline pagheca

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #561 on: 11/15/2014 09:52 PM »
Obviously, this doesn't make sense without a numerical statistical analysis.

p.s. It's something similar to the V-2 target claim over London and it may be a nice undergrad exercise for statistics students...

p.p.s. I guess the probability of an event is linear with his energy in bilogaritmic scale. So, the events at 1 GJ (that's the energy to evaporate less then 1/2 m3 of water, just to give an idea) are way too little in the map. That means that the detector was not very sensitive at that energy and the map may be biased toward more powerful events.
« Last Edit: 11/15/2014 10:07 PM by pagheca »

Offline francesco nicoli

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #562 on: 11/15/2014 10:11 PM »
Italy is free too, but I saw with my eys a big fireball bolid in 2009 above the skies of the Emilian flats.....

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #563 on: 11/16/2014 01:56 AM »
I think a better way is map what DSP's where in orbit during the period and see if anything thing stands out, like fewer satellites covering america or such, maybe a Brazil is half way between two of them.

The data is missing several things.
1. A data table with the date/time of events.
2. An indication if the lower limit is the same across the globe. Or different satellites from different generations have different lower limits.

I think this part of why the DOD has been so resistant to release the data. It may show the lower detection limits of the system and may indicate that global coverage is not 100%. 

For instance, Brazil most likely does not need to be high on the monitoring list since they lack ICBM's and are relatively stable. Or this could just be a statistical fluke.

You need to cover the oceans, North America, Cuba, Russia, China, Europe for obvious reasons. It makes sense to cover Africa and the Middle East due to how "Stable" the regions are. Australia is a close ally.

So the only region that does not need heavy coverage is Brazil, and maybe Antarctica.  Odd the map has a hole in Brazil. 

It also reminds me of something. When Mars 96 failed, US Space Command thought it ended up in the Pacific, but decided  later based on media reports of eye witness accounts it reentered over Bolivia / Chili.  This begs a question, how was that missed if 24/7 100% coverage was being provided.
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Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #564 on: 11/16/2014 02:18 AM »
... or it could just be the inherent human penchant for recognizing patterns when presented with random data.

Offline hop

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #565 on: 11/16/2014 02:32 AM »
I think a better way is map what DSP's where in orbit during the period and see if anything thing stands out, like fewer satellites covering america or such, maybe a Brazil is half way between two of them.
Better, start with some statistical tests to see whether the distribution is compatible with random events.

Offline Stellar_Speedster

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #566 on: 11/16/2014 06:30 AM »
Better press release: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news186.html

Interesting that there is a slight gap above the Amazon, while slightly larger numbers where detected over Siberia and China. Anyone want to go all tinfoil and argue it is because there are no ICBM's in South America and it is not as well covered?

Red areas are also ICBM sites ?

Offline MP99

Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #567 on: 11/16/2014 08:33 AM »


Better press release: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news186.html

Interesting that there is a slight gap above the Amazon, while slightly larger numbers where detected over Siberia and China. Anyone want to go all tinfoil and argue it is because there are no ICBM's in South America and it is not as well covered?

I want to know what they're hiding at the poles, since they're less impacted.

Cheers, Martin

PS

Offline pagheca

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #568 on: 11/16/2014 08:35 AM »
I want to know what they're hiding at the poles, since they're less impacted.

Lots of meteorites. Trust me. ;)
« Last Edit: 11/16/2014 08:37 AM by pagheca »

Offline MP99

Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #569 on: 11/16/2014 09:16 AM »
I want to know what they're hiding at the poles, since they're less impacted.

Lots of meteorites. Trust me. ;)

Not sure if you got the video? :-)

Cheers, Martin
« Last Edit: 11/16/2014 09:18 AM by MP99 »

Offline aceshigh

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #570 on: 11/16/2014 12:06 PM »
So we can sumise that the Brazillians are in cahoots with the Martians...

ever heard about the Varginha ET?

and the flying saucer landing strip in the savannah near Brasilia, where a community of UFO believers built pyramid shaped houses?

Coincidence? I think not.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #571 on: 11/16/2014 04:34 PM »
So we can sumise that the Brazillians are in cahoots with the Martians...

ever heard about the Varginha ET?

and the flying saucer landing strip in the savannah near Brasilia, where a community of UFO believers built pyramid shaped houses?

Coincidence? I think not.


AAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I may not be able to wipe that pseudo-science crap off of TV, but oughtn't we be able to come to this enclave of scientific rationalism, here, and not risk being assaulted by that freaking-idiot-with-the-pubic-hair-on-his-head from Ancient Aliens?

I guess the answer is obvious...

I THINK NOT!!!!!

sigh

-Doug  (With my shield, and aiming at that pseudo-science idiot with my spear)
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline robertross

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #572 on: 11/16/2014 04:56 PM »
Something very cool that caught my attention, and thought I would share.

What happens to the gas released when the meteorite vapourizes?

http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/earthscienceandengineering/aboutese/hottopic/pasttopics/meteorite%20gas

Quote
The researchers used a technique called pyrolysis-FTIR, which rapidly heats the fragments at a rate of 20,000 degrees Celsius per second, and they then measured the gases released.

They found that on average, each meteorite was capable of releasing up to 12 percent of the meteorites’ mass as water vapour and 6 percent of the meteorites’ mass as carbon dioxide when entering an atmosphere. They concluded that contributions from individual meteorites were low small and were unlikely to have a significant impact on the atmospheres of planets on their own.
Remembering those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our rights & freedoms, and for those injured, visible or otherwise, in that fight.

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #573 on: 11/16/2014 08:24 PM »
The linked article seems to assume that *all* meteorites are relatively volatile-rich.  While most meteorites are chondritic, only a fairly small percentage of those are even characterized as containing a "small amount" of volatiles.

Even the article's inset states that "some meteorites contain abundant water and organics" (emphasis mine).  And yet the article seems to ignore this.

I'm thinking the actual research is figuring in the observed abundances to their results, and it's just the "journalist" who is ignoring them.

-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #574 on: 11/17/2014 12:22 AM »
Water, water everywhere... seems every time we kick over a rock it goes splash!!!
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Offline aceshigh

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #575 on: 11/21/2014 11:29 PM »
So we can sumise that the Brazillians are in cahoots with the Martians...

ever heard about the Varginha ET?

and the flying saucer landing strip in the savannah near Brasilia, where a community of UFO believers built pyramid shaped houses?

Coincidence? I think not.


AAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I may not be able to wipe that pseudo-science crap off of TV, but oughtn't we be able to come to this enclave of scientific rationalism, here, and not risk being assaulted by that freaking-idiot-with-the-pubic-hair-on-his-head from Ancient Aliens?

I guess the answer is obvious...

I THINK NOT!!!!!

sigh

-Doug  (With my shield, and aiming at that pseudo-science idiot with my spear)

I am brazilian, to the Varginha ET nonsense is something I know from the news back in the day, not from the imbecile documentaries of what USED to be history and science channels.

Anyway, I only mentioned it joking of course, in response to the joke about brazilians being in cahoots with Martians.

Don´t worry. I don´t believe in UFOs (at least, not in UFOs that transverse light years to crash on Earth due to malfunction or puny human missiles, or that are sighted (how careless, even human armies have better anti-radar tech AND can be less visible), nor aliens that suspiciously look quite a lot like human fetuses, which would indicate they also evolved from monkeys, and those monkeys from other mammals, and those mammals from synapsides, and so on...

Offline baldusi

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #576 on: 11/25/2014 04:56 PM »
I just have to add this paper. For their sample, impact are not uniformly random. It seems that they are correlated to Jupiter's perturbations, for example.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #577 on: 11/25/2014 05:15 PM »
Italy is free too, but I saw with my eys a big fireball bolid in 2009 above the skies of the Emilian flats.....
Similarly, I saw one in 1995 in Kananaskis that also isn't on there.  Perhaps it was too small?  For better or worse, I'm not an expert in 'eyeball calibrations' of multi-GigaJoule visual spectrum events.  ;~/
But I would have guessed it should make the list. 

 
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #578 on: 11/25/2014 05:22 PM »
I just have to add this paper. For their sample, impact are not uniformly random. It seems that they are correlated to Jupiter's perturbations, for example.
Thanks for the paper.  After a quick scan, here's a once sentence quote. "The overall impact risk for the Southern hemisphere is 50 percent higher than that of the Northern hemisphere from September to December."   

I haven't calculated it (would be complicated given the relative speeds and geometry), but given the 23.5 degree axial tilt, 50% more likelihood seems intuitively reasonable during the part of the orbit that the planet travels more bottom-first.  What's unusual is that the northern hemisphere didn't show the same thing.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2014 05:23 PM by go4mars »
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #579 on: 11/25/2014 07:15 PM »
Might I offer a plausible explanation, Kreutz Sungrazers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kreutz_Sungrazers

It might be plausible if something in the Oort locally is perturbing orbits and sending them sun ward. If that is happening they will be heading in from a similar section of the sky and crossing earths orbit on the way out at roughly the same time and from the same southern direction year after year.
« Last Edit: 11/25/2014 07:19 PM by kevin-rf »
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