Author Topic: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia  (Read 136579 times)

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #200 on: 02/16/2013 01:29 AM »
Well, yes, but the question of what 0.5 $G buys in either case arises.

I.e., suppose that amount of money buys a pretty complete assessment of asteroid risk that can be followed up with more $$ on prevention/ mitigation.

You then have to figure out how the same amount of money can be spent on earthquake risk assessment and prevention/mitigation.

In the case of earthquakes, we probably aren't going to prevent them any time soon, so does the 0.5 $G go into earthquake resistant construction in Haiti, Iran and other quaky places? And how much of the population gets protected for that amount of money?

It's not an easy calculation to make. But with space programs, the costs are immense compared to other things. It's easy to say "we should do this space thing" but forget that the money could have better value somewhere else.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #201 on: 02/16/2013 01:57 AM »
Well, yes, but the question of what 0.5 $G buys in either case arises.

I.e., suppose that amount of money buys a pretty complete assessment of asteroid risk that can be followed up with more $$ on prevention/ mitigation.

You then have to figure out how the same amount of money can be spent on earthquake risk assessment and prevention/mitigation.

In the case of earthquakes, we probably aren't going to prevent them any time soon, so does the 0.5 $G go into earthquake resistant construction in Haiti, Iran and other quaky places? And how much of the population gets protected for that amount of money?

It's not an easy calculation to make. But with space programs, the costs are immense compared to other things. It's easy to say "we should do this space thing" but forget that the money could have better value somewhere else.
And yet, we don't do it JUST because of an actuarial cost-benefit analysis. Very little of what NASA does would qualify, maybe some of the stuff in aeronautics.

And again, there is an existential aspect of it that isn't captured in an actuarial perspective and it's one that doesn't really apply to earthquake prediction, etc.

How much have we spent on Hubble? And Hubble doesn't really have an existential purpose. Half a billion for studying NEOs (and other targets, for sure) isn't unreasonable. Which isn't to say we /shouldn't/ be studying how to predict earthquakes, etc. Your arguments seem to work just as well against any kind of space project.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 01:59 AM by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #202 on: 02/16/2013 02:03 AM »
And yet, we don't do it JUST because of an actuarial cost-benefit analysis. Very little of what NASA does would qualify, maybe some of the stuff in aeronautics.

Right. So what?

If the result of this incident in Russia is to throw huge amounts of money at something, supposedly to protect human life, when that money could be much better spent on things that will have a real impact on protecting human life, then that would be a waste.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #203 on: 02/16/2013 02:13 AM »
And yet, we don't do it JUST because of an actuarial cost-benefit analysis. Very little of what NASA does would qualify, maybe some of the stuff in aeronautics.

Right. So what?

If the result of this incident in Russia is to throw huge amounts of money at something, supposedly to protect human life, when that money could be much better spent on things that will have a real impact on protecting human life, then that would be a waste.
Not from my perspective, since I think the level of funding for NASA is already much too low for what we can afford. The real, present danger of the Russian event serves as an illustration for the broader reasons as to why having a robust space program is a good idea. Having a robust space program means you will find (and thus be able to contemplate addressing) threats you perhaps didn't even know existed, as well as future opportunities that otherwise either no one would consider or which wouldn't be possible without the knowledge gained. (And yeah, part of that robustness ought to be reform in NASA, not just throwing cash at the problem.)

And realistically, people aren't going to be throwing cash at NASA. But this event may help prevent a big (maybe even disproportionate) cut in NASA by raising the public's interest in space. People are interested in things which can benefit them but especially things which can harm them (in ways they can't normally control).
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 02:17 AM by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Nittany Lion

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #204 on: 02/16/2013 02:43 AM »
Not from my perspective, since I think the level of funding for NASA is already much too low for what we can afford.

And yet, we don't do it JUST because of an actuarial cost-benefit analysis. Very little of what NASA does would qualify, maybe some of the stuff in aeronautics.


Which criteria do you use when you make your own spending decisions? Assuming you are an average American you can afford say 15 cars, if that’s all you bought.

But you probably decided to buy a house, two cars, some food, some clothing, and some etcetera.

An economist would say you equate marginal-utility-to-price ratios over all your purchases. A non-economist would say you maximize the bang for your bucks.

Governmental spending should be allocated similarly and probably is. That makes everyone unhappy because almost no one has tastes that are the same as the _average_ citizen.

Nevertheless the above process maximizes the welfare of society as a whole. I can provide references to the Math behind that statement if you have trouble sleeping.

Now whether government spending in relation to government revenue makes sense is a whole ‘nother story.



Online sanman

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #205 on: 02/16/2013 03:03 AM »
Pleasant mainly, with a small chance of rocks.

Btw, this one is the most dramatic, imho:




What are those secondary explosions happening afterwards? Just echoes, maybe? Or did any fragments actually hit the ground, causing damage there?

Offline yg1968

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #206 on: 02/16/2013 03:15 AM »
Here is another article on the upcoming House hearing on meteor strikes:
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/lawmakers-space-asteroids-87723.html?hp=l13

Offline yg1968

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #207 on: 02/16/2013 03:17 AM »
Anybody seriously interested in the issue of searching for asteroids and what to do about deflecting them from hitting Earth can check out this study from 2010:

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12842

Free download.

Thanks.

Online sanman

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #208 on: 02/16/2013 03:18 AM »

http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/15/world/europe/russia-meteor-shower/index.html

Quote
Deep Space Industries, a recently created space exploration company, said countries should be proactive in establishing "a sentry line of spacecraft circling the Earth to intercept and evaluate incoming threats."

"The hundreds of people injured in northern Russia show it's time to take action and no longer be passive about these threats," said Rick Tumlinson, chairman of Deep Space Industries.

Deep Space Industries - When Big Rocks Terrorize Cities, WE'LL BE THERE! When reporters scurry for soundbites, WE'LL BE THERE!

Hey, so how much platinum did the Earth just gain with this?

Offline JimO

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #209 on: 02/16/2013 05:00 AM »
Here's my CNBC hit from earlier today:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000148418&play=1



Offline sdsds

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #210 on: 02/16/2013 05:02 AM »
Speaking of hyperbole....

Vladimir Zhirinovsky is characterized as a "firebrand", "known for clownish political outrage" and being a "perennial provocateur who is no stranger to controversy." Nonetheless he is leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR / ЛДПР), and in the 2012 presidential election he received 6.22% of the popular vote.

He asserts this event was not caused by a meteor, but by the United States testing a new weapon.
http://rt.com/politics/zhirinovsky-meteorite-american-weapon-316/
-- sdsds --

Online sanman

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #211 on: 02/16/2013 05:56 AM »
I'm curious - were any aircraft in the air in the vicinity of Chelyabinsk at the time? What would they have experienced?

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #212 on: 02/16/2013 06:45 AM »
Revised data valid as of 1900 PST Local Time via NASA JPL


Update: February 15, 2013 7pm PST

New information provided by a worldwide network of sensors has allowed scientists to refine their estimates for the size of the object that entered that atmosphere and disintegrated in the skies over Chelyabinsk, Russia, at 7:20:26 p.m. PST, or 10:20:26 p.m. EST on Feb. 14 (3:20:26 UTC on Feb. 15).

The estimated size of the object, prior to entering Earth's atmosphere, has been revised upward from 49 feet (15 meters) to 55 feet (17 meters), and its estimated mass has increased from 7,000 to 10,000 tons. Also, the estimate for energy released during the event has increased by 30 kilotons to nearly 500 kilotons of energy released. These new estimates were generated using new data that had been collected by five additional infrasound stations located around the world – the first recording of the event being in Alaska, over 6,500 kilometers away from Chelyabinsk. The infrasound data indicates that the event, from atmospheric entry to the meteor's airborne disintegration took 32.5 seconds. The calculations using the infrasound data were performed by Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario, Canada.

"We would expect an event of this magnitude to occur once every 100 years on average," said Paul Chodas of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "When you have a fireball of this size we would expect a large number of meteorites to reach the surface and in this case there were probably some large ones."

The trajectory of the Russia meteor was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, which hours later made its flyby of Earth, making it a completely unrelated object. The Russia meteor is the largest reported since 1908, when a meteor hit Tunguska, Siberia.

----
Previous Data

Preliminary information indicates that a meteor in Chelyabinsk, Russia, is not related to asteroid 2012 DA14, which is flying by Earth safely today.

The Russia meteor is the largest reported since 1908, when a meteor hit Tunguska, Siberia. The meteor entered the atmosphere at about 40,000 mph (18 kilometers per second). The impact time was 7:20:26 p.m. PST, or 10:20:26 p.m. EST on Feb. 14 (3:20:26 UTC on Feb. 15), and the energy released by the impact was in the hundreds of kilotons.

Based on the duration of the event, it was a very shallow entry. It was larger than the meteor over Indonesia on Oct. 8, 2009. Measurements are still coming in, and a more precise measure of the energy may be available later. The size of the object before hitting the atmosphere was about 49 feet (15 meters) and had a mass of about 7,000 tons.

The meteor, which was about one-third the diameter of asteroid 2012 DA14, was brighter than the sun. Its trail was visible for about 30 seconds, so it was a grazing impact through the atmosphere.

It is important to note that this estimate is preliminary, and may be revised as more data is obtained.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/asteroidflyby.html

 
DC Agle 818-393-9011
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
agle@jpl.nasa.gov

2013-061
 
LINK containing latest upward revision: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20130215.html
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 06:54 AM by russianhalo117 »

Offline bubbagret

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #213 on: 02/16/2013 07:20 AM »
That would almost fit thru the door on Chamber A at JSC...

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/webb/news/chamber-a.html

Offline hektor

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #214 on: 02/16/2013 10:28 AM »
Seems to me to belong (dia. 55 ft) to the class of object that could have been detected prior to impact. Wonder what would have been the consequences if it indeed had been detected?

Offline FinalFrontier

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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #216 on: 02/16/2013 10:50 AM »
Also this since I was not on earlier:

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Offline InvalidAttitude

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #217 on: 02/16/2013 10:52 AM »

The estimated size of the object, prior to entering Earth's atmosphere, has been revised upward from 49 feet (15 meters) to 55 feet (17 meters), and its estimated mass has increased from 7,000 to 10,000 tons.

Tons or kilograms?

Offline hektor

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #218 on: 02/16/2013 10:54 AM »
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 10:59 AM by hektor »

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #219 on: 02/16/2013 11:04 AM »
Metric tons. Ten thousand metric tons.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20130215.html


"Estimated energy released has been revised to 500 kilotons"

Yep that’s about the same as any of the W60 on up warheads we use on most of our missiles.

It is fortunate it did not explode closer to the ground.
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