Author Topic: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia  (Read 140581 times)

Offline mlindner

  • Software Engineer
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1887
  • Space Capitalist
  • Silicon Valley, CA -- previously in Ann Arbor, MI
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #160 on: 02/15/2013 08:22 PM »
Dare I say around 1 megaton event?

Unlikely. Estimates have been ~10 tonnes and 20km/s, that gives 'just' 2TJ, little shy of half kiloton worth of KE.

New estimates based on infrasound stations (and I don't know how they
derive the result) claim 15m dia, 7000 tonnes, and hundreds of kT


7000 tonnes ... "Wow" seems not enough :)
I have no idea how this estimate was obtained, but I'm sure it's beyond my expertize.

Lets compare with records --
Sikhote-Alin meteorite (belongs to the top 10 largest meteorites):
estimated mass = 70 to 100 tonnes
Recovered mass = 23 t
entry speed = 14 km/sec
more than a hundred of craters and severe damage to forest in epicenter.
It fell in unpopulated remote area, but the sound was heard 300 km away
Bright flash was seen from Vladivostok, some 450 km away.

today:
In Miass and Zlatoust (90 and 110 km to the west from Chelyabinsk) nobody heard a sound, they just enjoy a silent show.
in the epicenter - broken windows and one abundoned building damaged by shock wave.
no large craters reported so far. The only reported fragments are about 0.5 cm...
estimated entry speed 15-20 km/sec
and yet on the top, it is 7000 tonnes...

If so - it was very gentle and well behaving meteorite :)

Listening to the presser, they used infrasound detectors that were meant to detect nuclear airburst explosions. I would guess they are left from technology that would have detected the U.S. attacking the U.S.S.R. Scary.

They stated it had a very shallow entry path so drew out the energy deposition. Also, atmospherics can have a huge effect at bending the sound away or focusing it in depending on the current state of the atmosphere.
Internal combustion engine in space. It's just a Bad Idea.TM - Robotbeat

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27033
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 6927
  • Likes Given: 4886
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #161 on: 02/15/2013 08:25 PM »
Let the hearings begin!

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/283427-house-committee-to-hold-hearing-on-asteroids-that-pose-a-potential-threat-to-earth
It does make NASA less of a target for cuts (from just a social/political perspective).

This is a legitimate threat to humanity and our nation. As real as North Korea or Iran.

Sometimes I really have to wonder about space advocates who talk about how the public doesn't care and either how that's unfair/stupid or how it's inevitable. And when space DOES enter the public's eye, they brush it off, poo-poo it, and usually don't take the opportunity to educate people.
It doesn't surprise me all that much that threats from NEOs are not talked about that much by space advocates. There is little to no relationship between asteroid threats and the various issues people tent to be passionate about (human spaceflight, Mars, etc.).
Well, there actually are some similarities between human spaceflight missions and NEO threats. Early deep space missions (the Gemini of a Mars architecture) currently target NEOs for visits. In addition to any intensive study of a NEO from a HSF mission (which may not win by itself in a cost/benefit analysis against an unmanned mission or ten), if we're going to deflect an asteroid, having the ability to deploy a very large spacecraft using solar-electric propulsion to station-keep near the asteroid (and the proximity ops of asteroid missions) is quite relevant indeed, even though the actual deflection spacecraft would surely be unmanned.

But the propulsion technology and scale needed for a significant gravity-tractor craft would be on the same level. And, of course, it fits in well with lunar and Martian operations as well (for tug and transfer vehicle work).

The problem, however, is apparently a lot of HSF advocates are kind of prejudiced against any kind of asteroid mission for whatever reason, even though it's arguably easier to justify from a fundamental perspective.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline mmeijeri

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7442
  • Martijn Meijering
  • NL
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #162 on: 02/15/2013 08:26 PM »
I agree with Jorge's latest that it seems unrelated - unless maybe it aerobraked in the southern hemisphere unseen  and ended up making half an orbit, like an Apollo/Zond skip reentry

Amazingly, major orbital plane changes as a result of passage through the atmosphere have happened before:

1972 Great Daylight Fireball
We will be vic-toooooo-ri-ous!!!

Offline catdlr

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4683
  • Marina del Rey, California, USA
  • Liked: 1487
  • Likes Given: 920
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #163 on: 02/15/2013 08:28 PM »
Live updates:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/feb/15/meteorite-explodes-over-russian-urals-live-updates

Incredibly surreal event. All of a sudden, all eyes are on space...

In the video, at 24 secs, shows a large door being blown in by the force of the blast.  Quite sobrering  :o
« Last Edit: 02/15/2013 08:29 PM by catdlr »
Tony De La Rosa

Offline kevin-rf

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8523
  • Overlooking the path Mary's little Lamb took..
  • Liked: 1028
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #164 on: 02/15/2013 08:42 PM »
Listening to the presser, they used infrasound detectors that were meant to detect nuclear airburst explosions. I would guess they are left from technology that would have detected the U.S. attacking the U.S.S.R. Scary.
Actually the main purpose of the US infrasound network (which is what NASA is using for these estimates) is it is part of the network (includes other tech) the US uses to detect secret nuclear testing by other parties (such as post Cold War entities like Iran, N. Korea, Pakistan, India, Manchester United).

During the Cold War, once the US or USSR was attacked, it would have been to late to analyze the data from the network. It is still viable today, and is very viable for characterizing large impact events.
If you're happy and you know it,
It's your med's!

Offline ChileVerde

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1176
  • La frontera
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #165 on: 02/15/2013 08:43 PM »

Listening to the presser, they used infrasound detectors that were meant to detect nuclear airburst explosions. I would guess they are left from technology that would have detected the U.S. attacking the U.S.S.R. Scary.

No, they're part of the nuclear test ban monitoring system:

http://www.ctbto.org/verification-regime/monitoring-technologies-how-they-work/infrasound-monitoring/
"I canít tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline Blackstar

  • Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10984
  • Liked: 2452
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #166 on: 02/15/2013 08:44 PM »
Listening to the presser, they used infrasound detectors that were meant to detect nuclear airburst explosions. I would guess they are left from technology that would have detected the U.S. attacking the U.S.S.R. Scary.
Actually the main purpose of the US infrasound network (which is what NASA is using for these estimates) is it is part of the network (includes other tech) the US uses to detect secret nuclear testing by other parties (such as post Cold War entities like Iran, N. Korea, Pakistan, India, Manchester United).

During the Cold War, once the US or USSR was attacked, it would have been to late to analyze the data from the network. It is still viable today, and is very viable for characterizing large impact events.

I believe it is part of arms limitation treaty monitoring, and my guess (and yeah, I'm too lazy to look it up right now) is that the US and Russia have an agreement that each country has access to the data from sensors in the other country.

I also vaguely remember that there is an entirely separate network, possibly run by the United Nations. They're not linked. Anyway, there should be quite a bit of data that will take awhile to crunch.

Offline mlindner

  • Software Engineer
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1887
  • Space Capitalist
  • Silicon Valley, CA -- previously in Ann Arbor, MI
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #167 on: 02/15/2013 08:49 PM »
Looks like they found a hole in a lake where they think it landed.

More details here:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/15/russian_meteorite_fragment_may_have_fallen_in_frozen_lake.html
Internal combustion engine in space. It's just a Bad Idea.TM - Robotbeat

Offline mlindner

  • Software Engineer
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1887
  • Space Capitalist
  • Silicon Valley, CA -- previously in Ann Arbor, MI
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 188
Internal combustion engine in space. It's just a Bad Idea.TM - Robotbeat

Offline R7

  • Propulsophile
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2738
    • Don't worry.. we can still be fans of OSC and SNC
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 663
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #169 on: 02/15/2013 08:54 PM »
I agree with Jorge's latest that it seems unrelated - unless maybe it aerobraked in the southern hemisphere unseen  and ended up making half an orbit, like an Apollo/Zond skip reentry

Amazingly, major orbital plane changes as a result of passage through the atmosphere have happened before:

1972 Great Daylight Fireball

But if the thing would have aerobraked elsewhere wouldn't that have lit up SBIRS screens big time?
AD∑ASTRA∑ASTRORVM∑GRATIA

Offline mmeijeri

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7442
  • Martijn Meijering
  • NL
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 162
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #170 on: 02/15/2013 08:57 PM »
Probably, so I don't think that's what happened here, I'm just amazed that we have documented examples.
We will be vic-toooooo-ri-ous!!!

Offline yg1968

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9163
  • Liked: 1175
  • Likes Given: 777
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #171 on: 02/15/2013 08:57 PM »
It's a good thing in my opinion. 

Oh, I agree there, but talk is cheap.

There is some efforts that are being made. See this link (the survey of NEAs larger than 1 km is not yet completed from what I understand):

http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/intro_faq.cfm

Quote
What is the government doing about it?

The US Congress held hearings to investigate the impact hazard in 1993, 1998, and 2002, and both NASA and the US Air Force are supporting surveys to discover NEOs. In 1998 NASA formally initiated the Spaceguard Survey by adopting the objective of finding 90% of the NEAs larger than 1 km diameter within the next decade (that is, before the end of 2008). In 1998 NASA also created a NEO Program Office, and today $3-4 million per year is being spent on NASA-supported NEO searches and orbit calculations. Other governments have expressed concern about the NEO hazard, but none has yet funded any extensive surveys or related defense research. A private Spaceguard Foundation based in Europe promotes NEO surveys internationally, and further interest on an international basis is provided by the International Astronomical Union, the International Council of Scientific Unions, and the United Nations.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2013 09:02 PM by yg1968 »

Offline notsorandom

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1681
  • Ohio
  • Liked: 373
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #172 on: 02/15/2013 08:58 PM »
Let the hearings begin!

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/283427-house-committee-to-hold-hearing-on-asteroids-that-pose-a-potential-threat-to-earth
It does make NASA less of a target for cuts (from just a social/political perspective).

This is a legitimate threat to humanity and our nation. As real as North Korea or Iran.

Sometimes I really have to wonder about space advocates who talk about how the public doesn't care and either how that's unfair/stupid or how it's inevitable. And when space DOES enter the public's eye, they brush it off, poo-poo it, and usually don't take the opportunity to educate people.
It doesn't surprise me all that much that threats from NEOs are not talked about that much by space advocates. There is little to no relationship between asteroid threats and the various issues people tent to be passionate about (human spaceflight, Mars, etc.).
Well, there actually are some similarities between human spaceflight missions and NEO threats. Early deep space missions (the Gemini of a Mars architecture) currently target NEOs for visits. In addition to any intensive study of a NEO from a HSF mission (which may not win by itself in a cost/benefit analysis against an unmanned mission or ten), if we're going to deflect an asteroid, having the ability to deploy a very large spacecraft using solar-electric propulsion to station-keep near the asteroid (and the proximity ops of asteroid missions) is quite relevant indeed, even though the actual deflection spacecraft would surely be unmanned.

But the propulsion technology and scale needed for a significant gravity-tractor craft would be on the same level. And, of course, it fits in well with lunar and Martian operations as well (for tug and transfer vehicle work).

The problem, however, is apparently a lot of HSF advocates are kind of prejudiced against any kind of asteroid mission for whatever reason, even though it's arguably easier to justify from a fundamental perspective.
I agree that a human BEO program would give us more information and tools to better deal with this threat. However HSF isn't necessary to characterize and significantly mitigate the threat. An automated space based observation program can significantly increase the detection chance for a fraction of the cost of a human BEO mission. Even if there was only a warning of a few days or hours it would be enough to have people take cover or evacuate the impact area. If the objective is to mitigate the threat posed by asteroid impacts then I don't think one can justify the added cost of involving HSF, and I say that as a big supporter of HSF in general. Not that I am saying you are saying otherwise. I think we are mostly in agreement.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2013 09:01 PM by notsorandom »

Offline psloss

  • Veteran armchair spectator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 16955
  • Liked: 1046
  • Likes Given: 464
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #173 on: 02/15/2013 09:03 PM »
New estimates based on infrasound stations (and I don't know how they
derive the result) claim 15m dia, 7000 tonnes, and hundreds of kT
SpaceWeather.com is quoting 300 kT, maybe from the NASA teleconference...anyone happen to record that audio?

From: http://www.spaceweather.com/
Quote
NASA scientists have conducted a preliminary analysis of the event. "Here is what we know so far," says Bill Cooke, head of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office. "The asteroid was about 15 meters in diameter and weighed approximately 7000 metric tons. It struck Earth's atmosphere at 40,000 mph (18 km/s) and broke apart about 12 to 15 miles (20 to 25 km) above Earth's surface. The energy of the resulting explosion was in the vicinity of 300 kilotons of TNT."

Offline ChileVerde

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1176
  • La frontera
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #174 on: 02/15/2013 09:15 PM »
Also, some seismic data.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/monitoring/operations/station.php?network=IU&station=MAKZ#heliplot

Very interesting. I wonder if the continuing signal in the ~hour after the event is related.
"I canít tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline mlindner

  • Software Engineer
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1887
  • Space Capitalist
  • Silicon Valley, CA -- previously in Ann Arbor, MI
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #175 on: 02/15/2013 09:18 PM »
New estimates based on infrasound stations (and I don't know how they
derive the result) claim 15m dia, 7000 tonnes, and hundreds of kT
SpaceWeather.com is quoting 300 kT, maybe from the NASA teleconference...anyone happen to record that audio?

From: http://www.spaceweather.com/
Quote
NASA scientists have conducted a preliminary analysis of the event. "Here is what we know so far," says Bill Cooke, head of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office. "The asteroid was about 15 meters in diameter and weighed approximately 7000 metric tons. It struck Earth's atmosphere at 40,000 mph (18 km/s) and broke apart about 12 to 15 miles (20 to 25 km) above Earth's surface. The energy of the resulting explosion was in the vicinity of 300 kilotons of TNT."


I didn't record it, but that 300 kT is the number they gave. Rather they said between 300-500 kT. They actually gave a callback number to listen to a replay of the teleconference: 888-562-0218
I just tried it and it works.
Internal combustion engine in space. It's just a Bad Idea.TM - Robotbeat

Offline Blackstar

  • Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10984
  • Liked: 2452
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #176 on: 02/15/2013 09:29 PM »
There is some efforts that are being made. See this link (the survey of NEAs larger than 1 km is not yet completed from what I understand):


The requirement was for 90%. They are at 95%. They are for all intents and purposes complete. You can never get to 100%.

There is a requirement for searching for 140 meter NEOs. That's nowhere near done (I think they're at no more than 5%). See the report I linked to earlier for more details.

Frankly, NASA doesn't want to do this, and nobody really wants to do this. A few members of Congress slipped some language into bills many years ago requiring NASA to do it, but nobody provided any extra money for them to do it. That's why it's largely not getting done. Simply put, the people who run the country do not think that this is an important issue, or even a minor issue, and never have.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2013 09:29 PM by Blackstar »

Offline Dalhousie

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2085
  • Liked: 259
  • Likes Given: 316
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #177 on: 02/15/2013 09:30 PM »

Listening to the presser, they used infrasound detectors that were meant to detect nuclear airburst explosions. I would guess they are left from technology that would have detected the U.S. attacking the U.S.S.R. Scary.

There is a world wide network of these stations monitoring for clandestine tests.  It would be interesting to see what the other stations picked up.
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Offline Space Frog

  • Member
  • Posts: 33
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #178 on: 02/15/2013 09:33 PM »
Regardless of whether the Planetary Defense system will involve HSF or not, if the powers that be can be goaded into ponying up some money for Planetary Defense in response to this event, it will benefit all aspects of spaceflight.  More jobs, higher flight rates, more grants, more hardware.  Space Enthusiasts should really go chicken-little on this event and write dramatic letters to their congresscritters, because something this dramatic doesn't happen very often and politics is (unfortunately) all about making the most of every opportunity.  The next rock could hit Chicago.  And it could be bigger. 

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27033
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 6927
  • Likes Given: 4886
Re: Meteor Strikes Chelyabinsk, Russia
« Reply #179 on: 02/15/2013 09:35 PM »
There is some efforts that are being made. See this link (the survey of NEAs larger than 1 km is not yet completed from what I understand):


The requirement was for 90%. They are at 95%. They are for all intents and purposes complete. You can never get to 100%.

There is a requirement for searching for 140 meter NEOs. That's nowhere near done (I think they're at no more than 5%). See the report I linked to earlier for more details.

Frankly, NASA doesn't want to do this, and nobody really wants to do this. A few members of Congress slipped some language into bills many years ago requiring NASA to do it, but nobody provided any extra money for them to do it. That's why it's largely not getting done. Simply put, the people who run the country do not think that this is an important issue, or even a minor issue, and never have.
There's also never (during the space age) been such a pertinent, documented case of why it is important, and probably has never been such public attention to the topic, either.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Tags: