Author Topic: Mars One Discussion Thread  (Read 105539 times)

Offline Hernalt

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #450 on: 04/23/2013 11:25 AM »
http://www.spacehabs.com/424528/mars-one/
Based on what I heard on a recent LPL conference call to Lane Peterson at South Pole Food Growth chamber, that CGI greenhouse could probably produce about 1000 calories per day, with little in the way of protein. The lighting seems wan. By that time it should be red and blue LEDs.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #451 on: 04/23/2013 12:54 PM »
One candidate, some australian guy. Question: Why do you think you're the ideal candidate?

Answer: Because I'm entirely bonkers, and I think that is needed for such a mission.

NSoV.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #452 on: 04/23/2013 01:22 PM »
Habitat pics I found somewhere.

Well, it would be best if the image could be verified.  "Somewhere" ain't the best attribution.  I see that Bryan Versteeg is credited with the artwork.

Throwing my eyeball over that habitat illustration, I estimate that it's a two bedroom unit about 120' long.  Here it is next to an FH.

The illustration is not even wrong.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Oli

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #453 on: 04/23/2013 01:46 PM »
^

Well the habitat essentially consists of an inflatable, floor tiles, boxes of all kind (foldable I guess), curtains (or whatever that is), some support structure. Nothing too voluminous on its own. Its like ikea ;). But yeah you need two of those and the parts must fit into 4 dragons or so.
« Last Edit: 04/23/2013 01:49 PM by Oli »

Offline David GREENFIELD

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #454 on: 04/23/2013 05:30 PM »
Are they really only planning to send four people?
Let's go to Mars!

Offline Altonity

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #455 on: 04/23/2013 06:27 PM »
Are they really only planning to send four people?

If everything goes as planned they will send four more people every two year.

Online woods170

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #456 on: 05/06/2013 05:31 PM »
I remain a major skeptic for this project. I see that the press conference was very poorly attended and just a small point - the name plates appeared to be hand-written which gives an immediately amateurish touch. I rather doubt that these fine folk have the financial and technical horsepower needed to pull it off.

Mores the pity... :(

You're not the only one. One of MarsOne's representatives (Marieke Wagensveld - member of the MarsOne PR team) gave a presentation last saturday at the Aviodrome aerospace museum in the Netherlands.

Let's just say that I was less than impressed. I took some notes and will copy them in here. Notes are in random order. And I'll be excused in advance if most of those notes were known already:

- First four people to Mars will cost $ 6 billion.
- 2023: First four people on Mars, one way mission: no return to Earth
- The founders of the MarsOne initiative apparently brainstormed over this idea for the last 15 (!) years. But this idea is not new. NASA floated the very concept back in the early 1990's.
- 2011/2012: MarsOne project start.
- Mission plan: fly multiple (8) supply missions first between 2016 and 2022. This includes landers, 2 rovers, a habitat modules and an orbital communications satellite.
- The rovers must assemble the habitat modules into one large habitat (basically: dock the Dragon-derived landers ('pods') to each other).
- The habitat pods will eventually be buried under 5 meters of Mars sand to protect them - and the astronauts - from radiation.
- MarsOne has multiple advisors coming from both NASA and the aerospace industry.
- A lot of research will be needed to establish the technical feasibility of the MarsOne proposal (What!? They haven't done that yet?)
- To make the project financially viable an enormous media campaign needs to be initiated.
- The MarsOne project does not believe in government-funding. Clear goal is to let the market do all the money-making.
- Subsequent crew missions (after the first one) will cost US$ 4 billion each.
- Crew on Mars must 'live off the land' to the furthest extend possible.
- First crew: two male, two female
- First crews are discouraged from propagating (Yes, someone actually asked them that question) because the risks of such action is unknown.
- Travel time to Mars is 8 months.
- Crew selection process exists of several rounds. Round 1 had recently begun.
- Over 30,000 applications in the first week of round 1 alone.
- Purposes of MarsOne: create a mini-civilization (colonization) on Mars and do lot's of research.
- Media exposure for the project must generate a substantial amount of the money needed to make it happen. The money generated by the media exposure for the 2012 Olympic Games is used as an example.
- MarsOne seriously expects that media exposure will be able to raise the US$ 6 billion needed for the first mission.
- There will be no maximum age for astronaut applicants. At least, not in the first round of selection. There is a minimum age of 18 years.
- Identified risk: after a successfull first mission the public's attention might fade away, much like happened to Apollo after Apollo 11. Mars One acknowledges that could, in worst case scenario, leave the project unable to send re-supplies after the first four astronauts have landed on the Red Planet.
- Religion has no role in the MarsOne project (yes, someone actually asked them that question).


The above is as far as the content of the presentation is concerned. Below you'll find my personal impressions:
- The presentation was messy and ill-prepared. Bad thing for a PR officer.
- The entire project looks highly unrealisitic IMO.
- Very little technical details were given. Upon my asking the MarsOne representative had to admit that almost none of the details have been figured out; as indicated by the fact that a basic technical feasibility study has yet to be performed.
« Last Edit: 05/06/2013 05:33 PM by woods170 »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #457 on: 05/06/2013 07:41 PM »
This Friday May 10th, at 2 - 3:30pm PDT, Bas Lansdorp is appearing on The Space Show. So a good opportunity to raise a number of the points on this thread and see if there's any substance behind Mars One.

I'll be interested to see if all the publicity they've had in recent months has made any difference to their fund raising.

Offline Oli

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #458 on: 05/06/2013 09:06 PM »
The things new to me:

Quote from: woods170
- The habitat pods will eventually be buried under 5 meters of Mars sand to protect them - and the astronauts - from radiation.

- A lot of research will be needed to establish the technical feasibility of the MarsOne proposal (What!? They haven't done that yet?)

- Mars One acknowledges that could, in worst case scenario, leave the project unable to send re-supplies after the first four astronauts have landed on the Red Planet.

- 5 meters? The inflatables AND the pods? Sounds like a lot of dirt to move...

- I think they said its doable with current technology, but not that research would not be needed to make it reality.

- That's the first time I heard them admit that, well, I guess life expectancy on mars will be short then.


Clearly the lack of money will bury this project, but we should be fair. Their public presentations may not be particularily good, but the team is small and the workload probably immense. And they certainly aren't totally incompetent in selling this folly, considering the publicity they got so far (which won't be enough but still).

« Last Edit: 05/06/2013 09:08 PM by Oli »

Offline Oli

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #459 on: 05/07/2013 07:59 PM »
So I took a look at the traffic stats of the mars-one site. After an initial peak they currently have a daily reach of 0.01%.

Nasaspaceflight.com has approx. 0.001% and nasa.gov  0.15%.

A site like cnn.com has around 1.5% daily reach.

Its not too bad, but I would say they need a factor 100-1000 more. Of course their site is currently just a list of application videos, not particularily attractive.


Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #460 on: 05/07/2013 08:13 PM »
- 5 meters? The inflatables AND the pods? Sounds like a lot of dirt to move...

Thousands of tonnes at least. I would estimate that it would take the movement of over 2000 tonnes to cover one of their habitat modules.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #461 on: 05/07/2013 08:43 PM »
http://www.spacehabs.com/424528/mars-one/
Based on what I heard on a recent LPL conference call to Lane Peterson at South Pole Food Growth chamber, that CGI greenhouse could probably produce about 1000 calories per day, with little in the way of protein. The lighting seems wan. By that time it should be red and blue LEDs.

Looks to me that they would be lucky to consistently get much above 500 calories per day. Mistakes in horticulture, spoiling, food waste, growing a variety of crops (not just the highest yielding) and other such effects will reduce the number of calories available to the crew.

Offline Hernalt

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #462 on: 05/08/2013 10:02 AM »
No argument on Murphy contributing to the effort.  :-\

http://ag.arizona.edu/ceac/sites/ag.arizona.edu.ceac/files/08ICES-0187%20Res%20Pro%20SPFGC%20Giacomelli%2004-30-08.pdf
Resource and Production Model for the South Pole Food Growth Chamber
R. Lane Patterson, Gene A. Giacomelli The University of Arizona 2008
Predicts on last page: 516 calories produced per 57.2 m3 using ramped inputs (e.g. lots of salts) and elevated CO2, temp, humidity. Using that astronaut ~2m, I get a volume in the notional Mars One green house of ~ 3 m high x 9 m long x 5 m wide = 145 m3 if every space was filled, or, 1312 Calories. By the time egress is considered, less than 1000 Calories.

http://www.academia.edu/2194711/Bio-Regenerative_Life_Support_System_Development_for_Lunar_Mars_Habitats
Bio-Regenerative Life Support System Development forLunar/Mars Habitats
Giacomelli Patterson UA 2012
Claims that a fully operating cylindrical LGH Lunar Greenhouse modules would produce 1000 calories per day plus 1 adult's oxygen.

Offline RocketmanUS

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #463 on: 05/08/2013 08:54 PM »
I wonder if they will have an animation show to generate funding?
Making it from the SciFi point of view with concepts from reality could generate added funding and interest.

They could have this up and going before even sending cargo to Mars.
Mars and beyond, human exploration
The grass is always greener on the other side. When you stand on top of the hill you see both sides!

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Mars One Discussion Thread
« Reply #464 on: 05/12/2013 02:50 PM »
This Friday May 10th, at 2 - 3:30pm PDT, Bas Lansdorp is appearing on The Space Show. So a good opportunity to raise a number of the points on this thread and see if there's any substance behind Mars One.

I'll be interested to see if all the publicity they've had in recent months has made any difference to their fund raising.

The show is archived at: http://archive.thespaceshow.com/shows/2006-BWB-2013-05-10.mp3

Interesting show. Obviously not a whole lot of detail yet but they seem to be making some progress. For example, team size has doubled from 5 last Summer to 10 now and they've raised millions of dollars more in funding (about $3M from application fees alone of people wanting to go to Mars).

Most challenging deadline is first cargo mission to Mars in 2016! (Although if they miss that date they're ok with slipping two years to 2018 ...)

I haven't changed my mind about their chances of success but I can see that they are serious about doing it and are approaching it in a serious manner.

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