Author Topic: LIVE: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 - June 29, 2012  (Read 201524 times)

Offline ChileVerde

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LIVE: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 - June 29, 2012
« on: 03/22/2012 07:26 pm »
I just found an NROL-15 patch on Novosti Kosmonavtiki.  It shows a fierce panther and, interestingly, in the discussion of what other patches have had felines, someone pointed out that the USA-144 launch featured a tiger.
« Last Edit: 07/29/2012 02:53 pm by input~2 »
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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #1 on: 03/23/2012 01:03 am »
So something Misty-3-ish eh? Now that's really angry kittens rushing out of the bag!

It would probably also explain the very low NROL number for this launch, as well as the rumors that this payload initially cannot be lifted by a Delta IV.

(USA-144 = NROL-9 was speculated to be a follow on of the payload on STS-36 when it was launched in 1999)
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #2 on: 03/23/2012 11:35 am »
So something Misty-3-ish eh? Now that's really angry kittens rushing out of the bag!

It would probably also explain the very low NROL number for this launch, as well as the rumors that this payload initially cannot be lifted by a Delta IV.

(USA-144 = NROL-9 was speculated to be a follow on of the payload on STS-36 when it was launched in 1999)

Yes indeed.  Since it became clear a few years ago that NROL-15 is something very peculiar, discussions among NRO-watchers as to what it might be have converged on two guesses that seem to fit known facts. One of the guesses is Misty-3, in which the delay and weight gain are explained as being due to measures taken to remedy deficiencies revealed during the Misty-2 mission.

So the observation that the NROL-15 patch has points of similarity to the USA-144 one was pretty interesting.  Could just be a coincidence, of course, and one needs to watch out for confirmation bias, wishful thinking and the like. 
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #3 on: 03/23/2012 11:49 am »

Could just be a coincidence, of course, and one needs to watch out for confirmation bias, wishful thinking and the like. 

...and one also has to watch out for NRO figuring out they are letting the cat out of the bag with these patches and decide to start acting like a cat playing with ones the food, ...Eeer NRO watchers by changing the patches so they have no correlation between similar missions. The patch behavior just amazes me.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2012 11:49 am by kevin-rf »
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Offline Blackstar

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #4 on: 03/24/2012 01:15 am »
...and one also has to watch out for NRO figuring out they are letting the cat out of the bag

I have a tee-shirt for USA-144 featuring a tiger with its claws wrapped around the Earth and the words "The cat's out of the bag!" It's essentially the same as the patch above, but with more color.
« Last Edit: 03/24/2012 02:10 pm by Blackstar »

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #5 on: 03/24/2012 11:50 am »
...and one also has to watch out for NRO figuring out they are letting the cat out of the bag

I have a tee-shirt for USA-144 featuring a tiger with its claws wrapped around the Earth and the words "The cat's out of the bag"

Are there any unidentified NRO-associated codewords that might suggest tigers, panthers, leopards, etc?
"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #6 on: 03/24/2012 02:09 pm »
...and one also has to watch out for NRO figuring out they are letting the cat out of the bag

I have a tee-shirt for USA-144 featuring a tiger with its claws wrapped around the Earth and the words "The cat's out of the bag"

Are there any unidentified NRO-associated codewords that might suggest tigers, panthers, leopards, etc?

Not that I am aware of. The obvious linkage is Prowler, but I doubt that there is a connection.

My guess is that this is the adopted mascot for the overall program, just as the dragon was adopted for a high-altitude sigint program and the owl for the radar program.

Offline Jim

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #7 on: 03/24/2012 03:33 pm »


My guess is that this is the adopted mascot for the overall program, just as the dragon was adopted for a high-altitude sigint program and the owl for the radar program.

Or a switch to throw people off

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #8 on: 03/24/2012 05:50 pm »


My guess is that this is the adopted mascot for the overall program, just as the dragon was adopted for a high-altitude sigint program and the owl for the radar program.

Or a switch to throw people off

Well, yes. At this late date and with much other patch lore behind us, you'd certainly think TPTB would be using patches as a channel for disinformation. Or at least not as a channel for information. But this is getting deep into wilderness of mirrors territory, places where Occam's Razor doesn't cut it.

However, and to pull this back a little to the US Launchers theme, NROL-15 does seem to have been an important factor in the development of the RS-68A upgrade for Delta IV. Maybe after the NROL-15 launch we'll get a better idea of why that was.
"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline Jim

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #9 on: 03/24/2012 06:13 pm »
USA-144 was a west coast mission and so I doubt there would be a reason to bring it back to the east coast, especially since there is a west coast heavy capability

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #10 on: 03/24/2012 07:07 pm »
USA-144 was a west coast mission and so I doubt there would be a reason to bring it back to the east coast, especially since there is a west coast heavy capability

The story that goes along with the Misty-3 guess has the deceptive part of the mission (as distinguished from the stealthy part) looking like a GEO launch.  Once the NOTAMs are issued we'll have a better idea about that.

All of this is way out in speculation land, but clearly NROL-15 needs a bit of creative writing to explain it. 
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Offline Dappa

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #11 on: 03/24/2012 08:39 pm »
[...] NROL-15 does seem to have been an important factor in the development of the RS-68A upgrade for Delta IV. Maybe after the NROL-15 launch we'll get a better idea of why that was.
So this is the first launch with the RS-68A? Interesting.

Offline William Graham

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #12 on: 03/24/2012 10:08 pm »
This is a lengthy and inconclusive post, but in summary there are some clues to suggest that it could be a Misty/EIS satellite, however evidence is weak and circumstantial, and there is also direct evidence to support a launch to geosynchronous orbit.


I suspected for a long time that it might be a sixth Lacrosse, although I no longer strongly support that hypothesis as with NROL-41 in orbit, the need for a sixth Lacrosse would seem to have diminished, however it is still possible. There are three possibilities, in order of likelihood: Mentor, Lacrosse, or something unusual. I would categorise Misty/EIS or some one-off satellite as being "something unusual".

The low NROL number is interesting, but not unheard of. NROL-1 didn't fly until about seven years after NROL-2. Several more highly-numbered launches of the same type of satellite occurred before it, so the low number doesn't tie it to something which hasn't already flown under a higher number. The point is they do seem to trail a number occasionally, and it is unclear if anything can be read into this. It will be interesting to see if NROL-29 reappears at some point in the future, which could give some suggestion that missing designations have been reassigned.

That said, there are a few things about this launch which don't quite add up. It is one of two or three missions on a list which I saw a few years ago, which included a note that a single Delta IV launch would require slightly more capacity than the vehicle had (and I do recall a post that suggested this may be the first launch with RS-68A engines), but that it would be a one-off. This pre-dated the conversion of SLC-6 to accommodate the Heavy, and therefore can be read as an exceptionally heavy payload, or one needing an unusual orbit. The other launches on that list were NROL-26, and possibly NROL-32. Both of those were Mentor spacecraft, launched to GSO, and neither is likely to have caused a concern over payload capacity, since similar satellites had previously launched on the Titan IV, which had a lower capacity.

It seems unlikely that the NRO would fly such a large satellite as a one-off, so I believe the fact that only one launch needed extra capacity could indicate the need to perform a dog-leg manoeuvre to achieve a higher-inclination orbit than typically reached from Canaveral. This would allow it to be explained as being an existing satellite which could normally only be launched from Vandenberg. (i.e. EIS or a plane 2 Lacrosse). Work to accommodate the D-IVH SLC-6 didn't begin until 2007, however that is now complete and if this launch did require a higher inclination orbit then it could have easily been relocated.

EIS (Misty) has been rumoured to be dead for several years, but for all we know it could have been restarted, the rumours could have been false, or the cancellation could just have been for satellites not already under construction. It was a very expensive programme, so if most of the costs had already been borne for the next satellite, they may have decided to proceed with it anyway. There's also the possibility that they may opt to proceed with launching a delayed Lacrosse even if FIA-R launches are underway, so that is also plausible. The other other option is that we are seeing what we are looking for, and it could end up being a Mentor (or possibly some form of replacement if the part about increased mass is true), launched to GSO.


Now the patches. The mission patch (featuring the panther) is fairly bland other than the striking similarities to the NROL-9 patch. But I made a similar connection between the NROL-32 and NROL-11 patches both featuring a pyramid and the Eye of Providence, and that turned out to be wrong.

The launch patch is far more interesting. It features some form of heroic armour-clad warrior slaying a mythical creature with a sword. Unfortunately I'm not too hot on my mythology so I can't recognise the creature and hero/god in question. The patch contains several features that may give clues to the mission's identity, but they seem to contradict each other.

The hero is wearing a winged helmet, which is similar to that seen in the NROL-41 patch. That could suggest a radar reconnaissance satellite, however I would not attach too much weight to such a small feature. Secondly, the mouth of the beast is open, and makes a shape which could represent a dish antenna, suggesting either radar imaging or more likely ELINT. The patch features the motto "Silence Vengeance", which could support the theory that it is a Misty satellite - "Silence" implying stealth capabilities. Not sure about the "Vengeance", but if it is not taken literally, it could be related to the assumptions that the programme was dead.

The other thing of interest is a pattern of five hollow stars, arranged in the form of the letter (or Roman numeral) V. This could just relate to it being the fifth launch of the D-IVH configuration from Cape Canaveral, or they could indicate that the number 5 is somehow significant to the mission in another way. If it were Lacrosse or Mentor, it would be the sixth satellite in the series, so that number doesn't make sense.

It doesn't directly make sense for EIS/Misty either, since it would only be the third launch (or second if you don't count EIS and Misty as the same programme). There were four stars on the NROL-9 patch, which have never been adequately explained; I've always assumed they were intended to draw an incorrect conclusion that the payload was the fourth satellite in its series (and by extension a Lacrosse, since there were three in orbit at the time), however if the stars did indicate previous missions then the ones here could be consistent with being the next mission in the series after NROL-9.


There is, however, a fundamental flaw in the assumption that this launch is going to a Low Earth orbit; the tracking assets listed on MSDB are ones which would be expected to be used for a geosynchronous launch; indeed, I believe they are identical to the last two Mentor launches. I doubt if, for example, Canberra, would be used for initial acquisition of a spacecraft launched to a 65 degree low Earth orbit. The tracking data could be a diversion or an error, but that is just speculation, and I doubt if it is the case.

It will be interesting to see the LHA and NOTAMS once they are issued, however I would not be surprised to see it heading straight out to the East, towards GSO.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #13 on: 03/25/2012 02:40 am »
EIS is not MISTY.

Offline William Graham

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #14 on: 03/25/2012 08:16 am »
EIS is not MISTY.

No, but my understanding is that EIS may have replaced Misty, in which case a hypothetical "Misty 3" would actually be the second EIS (USA-144/NROL-9 being the first). I should probably have made that clearer
« Last Edit: 03/25/2012 08:19 am by William Graham »

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #15 on: 03/25/2012 02:21 pm »

The low NROL number is interesting, but not unheard of. NROL-1 didn't fly until about seven years after NROL-2. Several more highly-numbered launches of the same type of satellite occurred before it, so the low number doesn't tie it to something which hasn't already flown under a higher number. The point is they do seem to trail a number occasionally, and it is unclear if anything can be read into this.

The NROL-1 case is curious, but I haven't taken the time to look into it. Do you happen to have a reference that explicitly ties the designator to to the launch date?

Attached is a graph showing when NROL launches occurred (diamonds) or are scheduled to occur (triangles). The curve flattens out on the right hand side for obscure reasons, but the trend between NROL-2 and -40 or so is pretty clear.

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Offline William Graham

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #16 on: 03/25/2012 05:21 pm »
The NROL-1 case is curious, but I haven't taken the time to look into it. Do you happen to have a reference that explicitly ties the designator to to the launch date?
No, that just came from an analysis of the existing data.

I think the most likely explanation for the curve flattening is that designations could be assigned early in a satellite's development, and numbers would subsequently diverge due to programme delays. That would also explain the near-perfect correlation between NROL-2 and NROL-9, since these satellites would have been the closest to launch at the time the system was introduced, and presumably the initial designations were just assigned in the order the missions appeared on the launch schedule. That doesn't explain NROL-1, though.

L-66 can be treated as an outlier since it had a short development time. The problems with the FIA programme have probably also disrupted some of the 30s and 40s.
« Last Edit: 03/25/2012 05:24 pm by William Graham »

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #17 on: 03/27/2012 05:15 pm »
Another patch on e-bay, courtesy of the Novosti-Kosmonavtiki forum. Not sure what to make of it: A sword? A bear? (dragon?) Silence vengeance? Five stars?

 ::)

 
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Offline Jim

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #18 on: 03/27/2012 05:21 pm »
5th east coast Heavy
« Last Edit: 03/27/2012 05:22 pm by Jim »

Offline mikegro

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Re: Delta IV Heavy - NROL-15 June 28, 2012
« Reply #19 on: 03/27/2012 05:46 pm »
[...] NROL-15 does seem to have been an important factor in the development of the RS-68A upgrade for Delta IV. Maybe after the NROL-15 launch we'll get a better idea of why that was.
So this is the first launch with the RS-68A? Interesting.

I believe so, can someone confirm this?  I think it is rather noteworthy too that the next launch of Delta IV-Heavy after NROL-15 will be EFT-1, also with RS-68A (someone correct me if I'm missing something on the launch schedule for the next couple of years).

Will any non-heavy Deltas use the RS-68A anytime soon?  IIRC, only the heavy will use them at first.

-Mike
« Last Edit: 03/27/2012 05:48 pm by mikegro »
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