Author Topic: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest  (Read 156562 times)

Offline robertross

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #400 on: 01/31/2012 07:12 PM »

RIA Novosti:  Space Radiation Blamed for Phobos-Grunt Crash
14:52 31/01/2012  //  http://en.ria.ru/science/20120131/171047665.html

TASS: Phobos-Grunt chips supposedly were counterfeit
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c32/330734.html


Natalya Vedeneyeva report in Moskovskiy Kosmolets: 'They lie to us about Phobos-Grunt' says that experts have established that Russian specialists are to blame for failure of the space craft Phobos-Grunt
http://www.mk.ru/science/interview/2012/01/30/665712-nam-vrut-pro-fobosgrunt.html

Okay, so which story are we now to believe?

Unbelievable how they will latch on to anything they can find to deflect blame.
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Offline olasek

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #401 on: 02/01/2012 12:40 AM »
Okay, so which story are we now to believe?
Look on the bright side - at least someone there is talking some sense (Moskovskiy Kosmolets).

Offline robertross

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #402 on: 02/01/2012 01:06 AM »
Okay, so which story are we now to believe?
Look on the bright side - at least someone there is talking some sense (Moskovskiy Kosmolets).

What needs to happen is a 'lessons learned' symposium for all parties involved, all the way up to the top. Like so many examples, every step of the process needs to work.

1) It launched: that part worked.
2) Everything else: needs some work, if not a complete overhaul.
Remembering those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our rights & freedoms, and for those injured, visible or otherwise, in that fight.

Offline olasek

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #403 on: 02/01/2012 05:07 AM »
1) It launched: that part worked.
2) Everything else: needs some work, if not a complete overhaul.
In basic rocketry Russians have a solid record but the rest indeed needs an overhaul but I doubt it will happen. They will tinker around the edges and that will be it. There won't be parliament initiated investigations, no calls for either pulling a plug on such missions or instituting much tighter oversight. In other words, IMHO, things will remain as they are.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #404 on: 02/01/2012 08:55 AM »

RIA Novosti:  Space Radiation Blamed for Phobos-Grunt Crash
14:52 31/01/2012  //  http://en.ria.ru/science/20120131/171047665.html

TASS: Phobos-Grunt chips supposedly were counterfeit
http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c32/330734.html


Natalya Vedeneyeva report in Moskovskiy Kosmolets: 'They lie to us about Phobos-Grunt' says that experts have established that Russian specialists are to blame for failure of the space craft Phobos-Grunt
http://www.mk.ru/science/interview/2012/01/30/665712-nam-vrut-pro-fobosgrunt.html

There isn't necessarily a contradiction in these stories.  Space electronics need to be hardened.  If that wasn't done (thus the chips were 'counterfiet' in terms of their certification), then space radiation would probably explain the probe's brain-death.  It might also explain why Moskovkiy Kosmolets is blaming Russian specialists if a Russian supplier either faked their certification or bribed someone to look the other way.
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #405 on: 02/01/2012 01:28 PM »

Ted Molczan has done an exhaustive analysis of the changes in FG's orbit during the period the height of perigee was increasing:

http://satobs.org/seesat/Feb-2012/0000.html

Quote

1. Summary

Analysis of the USSTRATCOM TLEs for the period 2011 Nov 10-20 UTC reveals evidence of at least 10 orbit changes. They were the result of coplanar, posigrade manoeuvres that cumulatively rotated the line of apsides +14.1 deg and increased the perigee and apogee 10.9 km and 1.4 km, respectively. Their total delta-V was approximately 18.3 m/s.

The manoeuvres almost certainly are attributable to the four 11D457F bipropellant 53.9 N thrusters that faced -X (aft) in the vehicle's coordinate system. Their main purpose was attitude control, but also propellant settling (ullage burns) prior to main engine firings. Consumption of fuel plus oxidizer was about 98 kg. Total burn duration was about 1289 s.

In the planned mission, the main engine would have performed two lengthy burns 127 min apart to exit LEO and head for Mars. Both burns would have been preceded by 58 s ullage burns, that would each have consumed 4.4 kg of fuel plus oxidizer and imparted delta-V of 0.82 m/s.

Ullage burns best fit the magnitude of the manoeuvres, their precisely in-plane, posigrade thrust vector, and their frequency, so I am 95 percent confident of that explanation.

Since the total manoeuvre delta-V is equivalent to approximately 22 single ullage burns - roughly double the 10 orbit changes evident in the TLEs - it is reasonable to speculate whether the ullage burns occurred in pairs at the mission-nominal 127 min spacing. My analysis reveals that this was a possibility, but I cannot prove it.

Sections 2 and 3 describe how I identified and quantified the manoeuvres. Section 4 relates them to the propulsion system, and quantifies the fuel consumption and burn duration. Section 5 discusses the ullage burn hypothesis, and speculates about the potential value of a more sophisticated version of this analysis to the Russian failure
investigation.

[snip]
"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #406 on: 02/01/2012 03:12 PM »
Ted's fine analysis is reported straight in Russian here:
"Фобос-Грунт" более 20 раз включал двигатели ориентации - эксперт
13:59 01/02/2012 // http://www.ria.ru/science/20120201/553866833.html

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #407 on: 02/01/2012 03:15 PM »
I think this story recapitulates independently the path my earlier story followed, but it's a good corroboration:

Could the Re-Entry Capsule have hit Land?   //   January 31, 2012 // Patrick Blau
http://www.spaceflight101.com/phobos-grunt-entry-blog.html


Other current stories:

What else can crash in Russia after Phobos Ground?   Anton Yevseev, Pravda.Ru
01.02.2012    http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/01-02-2012/120389-phobos_ground-0/


The Phobos crash was preprogrammed
18:05 01/02/2012 // http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20120201/171071364.html
RIA Novosti military commentator Konstantin Bogdanov



Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #408 on: 02/01/2012 06:15 PM »
Ted's fine analysis is reported straight in Russian here:
"Фобос-Грунт" более 20 раз включал двигатели ориентации - эксперт
13:59 01/02/2012 // http://www.ria.ru/science/20120201/553866833.html


I wonder who wrote that article. It's straightforward, accurate, comprehensible -- qualities in short supply.

Edit: Add "sane" to the qualities.
« Last Edit: 02/01/2012 06:17 PM by ChileVerde »
"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #409 on: 02/01/2012 10:01 PM »
Here's a neat TASS graphic showing the cosmic ray theory:

http://www.itar-tass.com/data/Graphics/LargePhoto/1783.JPEG

442kb,  540 x 897 pixels     

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #410 on: 02/03/2012 01:03 PM »
Official Roskosmos commission report:

Основные положения Заключения Межведомственной комиссии по анализу причин нештатной ситуации, возникшей в процессе проведения летных испытаний космического аппарата «Фобос-Грунт»
-- Пресс-служба Роскосмоса   
:: 03.02.2012 [approx 1220 gmt]     
http://www.roscosmos.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=18647

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #411 on: 02/03/2012 05:59 PM »
Tweaked English translation --

The main conclusions of the Interdepartmental Commission for the analysis of the causes of abnormal situations arising in the course of flight testing of the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt"  //  03/02/2012 ::

   The main provisions of the Interagency Commission Opinion on the analysis of the causes of abnormal situations arising in the course of flight testing of the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt", formed in accordance with the order of the head of Russian Federal Space Agency of December 9, 2011 № 206
 
Inter-ministerial Commission for the analysis of the causes of abnormal situations (NSHS), which arose after the SC injection at the reference orbit of the Earth, formed in accordance with the order of the head of the Federal Space Agency (Russian Space Agency) on December 9, 2011 № 206, under the chairmanship Yu.N.Kopteva.
 
The Commission has formed working groups:
   - Group analysis of available information in the course of flight testing of spacecraft. Team Leader - V.M.Ivanov (FSUE TsNIIMash);
   - A group of assessing the correctness of execution of design and engineering solutions and technologies to ensure product reliability, making the results of the spacecraft and its major parts and components, testing and final operations in the factory, the technical and launch complexes Baikonur. Team Leader - K.S.Elkin (FSUE TsNIIMash);
   - A group of assessing the adequacy of decisions on the structure of the composition of funds and ¸ features ground-based flight control of spacecraft, ballistic and navigation support, the organization of interaction of heterogeneous NSO. Team Leader - G.K.Borovin (IPM them. Keldysh RAS);
   - A group of complex analysis and synthesis of the results of IDC. Team Leader - B.V.Bodin (FSUE TsNIIMash). 
   By working groups have been involved independent experts - specialists organizations Space Agency, Academy of Sciences, Moscow State University. University and the Russian Defense Ministry.
   During the work IAC were considered more than 700 documents on the project "Phobos-Grunt" relevant to the development, production, ground-based experimental testing and the final operations on the technical and launch complexes Baikonur, the analysis obtained from the board of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" telemetry data to the observations of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" in the process of uncontrolled flight.
 
   I. The overall conclusions of the analysis of the flight of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt", which was conducted to assess the telemetry information (TMI), resulting in the modes of transmission and reproduction of immediate memory in the areas of visibility of ground stations from the NEC "RB" Frigate ", as well as TMI, received 22-24 November 2011 ground stations X-band are:
   A. From the analysis of the flight before the spacecraft contingency at 1 and 2 turns of flight (23:28:41 UHF 8 November - 1:10:28 DMV November 9, 2011)
   - On-board system to function normally.
   - Deviation from the timeline is not revealed.
   - Solar cells (SC) opened, but zachekovka panels was not controlled.
   Two. By analyzing the flight of the spacecraft after the emergency situation.
   - After an emergency situation the spacecraft passed into the "solar constant orientation" (PSO) in accordance with the logic of the device.
   - During the period from 9 to 24 November, the SC maintained energy balance.
   - Since November 24, began a violation of the energy balance due to the fact that the transmitter was turned off in the communication session.
   - By November 29 AB and HIT reserves the PM had been exhausted, the board previously held mode "minimum voltage" in the SES - «Umin2» (presumably November 27), there was a depressurization PM HIT, the consequences in the form of two spacecraft separated from the fragments that are observed means STRATCOM (U.S.).
   - Constant exposure to the orbit of the spacecraft could be due to the orientation of the engines in the "PSO."   
   - Loss of energy balance has led to loss of control of the spacecraft. Episodic work of the SCU and control the spacecraft was possible only in certain areas of unshaded orbital flight spacecraft, where the illumination lay.
 
   II. To determine the most likely technical causes of NSHS with the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" MVK was analyzed two types of possible causes of NSHS:
   - Failure of equipment and products,
   - Failure to implement the standard on-board control complex timeline.
   2.1. Considered the following systems and assemblies of spacecraft, the failure of which could cause the development of contingency (NSHS):
   - Sustainer propulsion (MRL-F)
   - The system software running (POPs)
   - System deployment of solar batteries (SB),
   - Star sensors (BOKZ-F)
   - Strapdown inertial unit (BIB)
   - Chinese microsatellite (MMR)
   - Power supply system (PSS)
   - Onboard cable network (BCS)
   - On-board computer system (IOO),
   - On-board radio migratory module (BRK PM).
 
   Commission experts conducted an analysis of possible failures of these systems and components shown (according to their condition and TMI), which at the time of NSHS they could not become its primary cause.
   2.2. The cause of the NSHS is to restart the two half-sets TSVM22 BVC unit (double "restart"), who performed on this leg of the flight control of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt", then in accordance with the logic of the SCU was interrupted regular flight timeline of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" and it moved to the mode of maintaining a constant solar orientation and expectations of the commands from Earth to the X-band communications, which was the  provided design solution for migratory trajectory. This scenario was confirmed by monitoring the orbit after the development of the NSHS, and conducted a session with the help of domestic and foreign ground control in the X-band.
   2.3. The most likely factor that could be the root cause of the double "restart" is the local impact of heavy charged particles (TZCH) space, which led to the failure of the RAM modules computer kits TSVM22 during a flight on the second turn of the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt."
   RAM failure could be caused by short-term failure of performance due to the impact of ERI TZCH cell TSVM22 computational modules, which contain two chips of the same type WS512K32V20G24M (cell computing modules are arranged in a single body parallel to each other). Exposure to lead to a distortion of the code and the triggering of "watchdog" timer that caused the "restart" of the two half-sets TSVM22. The model of this interaction with the TZCH ECB is not regulated by legal and technical documents. The Commission considers it necessary to develop and implement organizations RCP normative-technical documents containing the current models of ionizing radiation of outer space and guidance for their use.
 
ERM considered other factors that could lead to double "restart" TSVM22:
   - Electromagnetic interference in the circuits of IOO, which could lead to a transient hardware failure and as a consequence, malfunction and failure timeline launch vehicle on escape trajectories;
   - Failure of the software tasks: the excess of the allowable period of time individual tasks, repeated at least twice in a row (the problem of logic, inter-processor sharing, traffic management (orientation and stabilization), sustainer engine control);
   - Program incorrect interaction of parallel digital computers (the error in the software).
 
   Studies of FSUE "NPO. Lavochkin" stand on the complex in January 2012 in the problem of attitude control and stabilization of the double-checked the possibility of "restart" of set TSVM22 due to exposure to electromagnetic interference and changes in the conditions of the program. These versions have not received experimental confirmation.
   Analysis of these factors, taking into account the NEO, and additional studies showed that the occurrence of NSHS based on them is unlikely.
   The volume of ground experimental testing of spacecraft products, which were issued to TK, and the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" as defined KPEO on them, taking into account the NEO received during the technical solutions implemented with positive results, including working out a complex of scientific equipment (KPA) , technical documentation, manufacturing processes, including critical manufacturing processes, as evidenced by the findings, and other Federal State Unitary Enterprise TsNIIMash GNIO RCP.
   In the course of the NEO found 32 faults, 18 defects and 48 departures from the CD (total - 98), which causes removed in accordance with established procedure, and the results are presented in the final report number EI-22 FG-125-11 on the technical readiness of the spacecraft and its products for flight tests (DO).
 
   Conclusions:
   Until the emergence of contingency, deviations from execution on-board systems and units of its functions have been identified. The cause of the NSHS is to restart the two half-sets the device TSVM22 IOO performing on this leg of the flight control of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt", then in accordance with the logic of the SCU was interrupted regular flight timeline of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt," and it moved to maintenance mode constant solar orientation and expectations of the commands from Earth to the X-band communications, which was the provided design solutions for migratory trajectory.
   The most likely cause of the two half-sets the device restarts TSVM22 BVK is the local impact of heavy charged particles (TZCH) space, which led to the failure of the RAM modules computer kits TSVM22 during the flight of spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" on the second turn. RAM failure could be caused by short-term failure of performance due to the impact of ERI TZCH cell TSVM22 computational modules, which contain two chips of the same type WS512K32V20G24M, located in a single case in parallel with each other. Exposure to lead to a distortion of the code that caused the "restart" of the two half-sets TSVM22.
   The volume of ground experimental testing of spacecraft products, which were issued to TK, and the spacecraft "Phobos-Grunt" as defined KPEO on them, taking into account the adopted process (NEO), the technical solutions implemented with positive results, including working out a complex of scientific equipment (KPA), technical documentation, manufacturing processes, including critical manufacturing processes, as evidenced by the findings, and other Federal State Unitary Enterprise TsNIIMash GNIO RCP.
   
Press Service of the Russian Space Agency


Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #412 on: 02/04/2012 02:43 PM »
No discussion of the report? Or has everyone snuck off elsewhere?

Offline rdale

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #413 on: 02/04/2012 03:02 PM »
Got an English translation that is readable?

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #414 on: 02/04/2012 03:05 PM »
No discussion of the report? Or has everyone snuck off elsewhere?


I suspect that the thread is no longer in a high profile location. I am surprised it has gone on this long.

Honestly, I am more concerned about the Soyuz over pressurization and rupture accident. In my mind was it really that high, or does it calls into question the margins on the reentry vehicle.
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Offline DFSL

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #415 on: 02/04/2012 03:09 PM »
Probably the down to earth, mundane tone of the report is not exciting enough as the previous theories. No mention of an evil radar there. I wonder if the article will get the same press coverage and analysis from "experts" as the more sensationalistic explanations.

Offline olasek

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #416 on: 02/04/2012 09:16 PM »
Got an English translation that is readable?
What I am getting out of this clumsy translation is that the most likely underlying cause was some sort of failure of RAM modules due to cosmic charged particles, in other words electronics hardware which was not designed for spacecraft use.

Offline JimO

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #417 on: 02/04/2012 10:02 PM »
I'm doing an in-depth piece on this theory for IEEE Spectrum, and would be happy to discuss at length via emails --  use jamesEoberg@comcast.net, please.

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #418 on: 02/04/2012 10:05 PM »
No discussion of the report? Or has everyone snuck off elsewhere?


1) the real failure analysis is not so interesting to press
2) the reports are in russian :(
3) people don't have anything new to add.

That said,

4) where would we be without you? keep up the good work.
5) Your articles in IEEE are fantastic.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #419 on: 02/04/2012 10:54 PM »
4) where would we be without you? keep up the good work.

Ditto, I agree 110%
If you're happy and you know it,
It's your med's!

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