Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest

[Chris Bergin]

Alan Boyle's asked about the data.


@esaoperations: No news. Will tweet as soon as I have anything.

[Prober]

I'm starting to wonder if PG didn't come down and kill off a buch of whales or something (joke).  This is more like a coverup.

[kevin-rf]

I'm starting to wonder if PG didn't come down and kill off a buch of whales or something (joke).  This is more like a coverup.

Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. -Napolean

Or in this case, no one had the resources to see where it actually came down*

*And the US DOD entity that has the resources (DSP) no longer provides the information.

[elmarko]

So why can't they just say that instead of keeping everybody guessing?

[Ben the Space Brit]

So why can't they just say that instead of keeping everybody guessing?

Because if it is a lack of capability, it isn't the sort of thing any defence- or security-oriented organisation would admit.  It's part embarrassment and part not letting the other guys know what you can't see.

[jcm]

Space-Track has now updated.
https://www.space-track.org/perl/decay_predict.pl and
https://www.space-track.org/perl/tip_msg.pl?id=37872 on SpaceTrack now gives a TIP report for FG:  Predicted decay time 2012-01-15 17:46:00 GMT +/- 1 minute at 46 S 273 E

[Comga]

Space-Track has now updated.
https://www.space-track.org/perl/decay_predict.pl and
https://www.space-track.org/perl/tip_msg.pl?id=37872 on SpaceTrack now gives a TIP report for FG:  Predicted decay time 2012-01-15 17:46:00 GMT +/- 1 minute at 46 S 273 E

273 E = 87 W
What is a "TIP"?

[sdsds]

Looks like 870 km from the nearest land, which is part of Parque Nacional Laguna San Rafael, Chile.

[JimO]

Fascinating TV program in Moscow, 15 minute segment
on non-traditional interpretations of the Fobos-Grunt disaster, here:
http://www.ntv.ru/peredacha/proisschestvie/m4001/o94287/

It's in Russian but even non-speakers will recognize much of the
graphic material, plus Marina Popovich and some cosmonauts,
and you can easily recognize the Russian pronunciation of 'HAARP'.
Interviews put faces on names we know from newspapers such as Rodionov.
Short written tease article here: http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/263634/

This will take some time to wade through and translate...

Meanwhile, Richard Hoagland has an ENTIRELY different take on the mission:
    http://dorkmission.blogspot.com/2012/01/richard-hoaglands-arrow-hits-barn.html
   audio file: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/EB34UA_tzWA&rel=1" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/v/EB34UA_tzWA&rel=1</a>

And for straight reportage, here's my piece with Discovery-Canada,
after obligatory commercial message
http://watch.discoverychannel.ca/daily-planet/january-2012/daily-planet---january-20-2012/#clip605619

[JimO]

Well, now that USSTRATCOM entry data is released,
WHAT is holding up the ESA report?

Do they think that all of us obsessives will grow weary
and lose interest and wander away, muttering?

Not ME! [mutter, mutter, mutter...]

[Alan Boyle]

Well, now that USSTRATCOM entry data is released,
WHAT is holding up the ESA report?

Do they think that all of us obsessives will grow weary
and lose interest and wander away, muttering?

Not ME! [mutter, mutter, mutter...]

Here it is:

http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Operations/SEMMXUH8RXG_0.html

But why do I suspect that the obsessives will continue to obsess? 

[kevin-rf]

Here it is:

http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Operations/SEMMXUH8RXG_0.html

Okay, from the last paragraph:

“This will increase warning times and boost prediction accuracy, helping civil authorities to react in the most appropriate manner, protecting people and property on Earth.”

Does that not require the reports and predictions to be released much sooner?

[JimO]

From ESA: "Following the 15 January Phobos–Grunt reentry, the US Strategic Command confirmed a reentry time of 17:46 GMT, referring to an altitude of 80 km at 46°S and 87°W, near the South American coastline. This corresponds to a pass at 10 km altitude about seven minutes later – very close to ESA’s prediction. "

I'm more interested in where the remaining debris was seven minutes after the entry point.

If that point was 870 km west of land, at 500 km/minute orbital speed [dropping to no horizontal velocity at all for terminal descent], we're talking about thousands of kilometers down track from the entry point.

[Comga]

So US StratCom says "17:46 GMT, referring to an altitude of 80 km at 46°S and 87°W" and ESA says "ESA established a final prediction for reentry of 17:45 GMT, referring to an altitude of 10 km.", but does not give a location. 

Are these compatible?
Is this really "very close"?
Seven minutes later than what?  17:46 or 17:45?

I agree if you put ESA's seven minutes on US StratCom's 17:46, then debris should have come down around one or two thousand kilometers farther down track, possibly over land, possibly in the Atlantic.

Which direction was PG travleing at that point?  Just south of East?
How does that square with the reported sighting from Australia?

[JimO]

I've seen a NASA chart for UARS that shows individual debris piece impact
expected at ranges from 500 out to 1300 km downrange from entry point,

I've been told that is 'typical' for large satellites.

The landing capsule COULD be on dry land!!