Author Topic: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest  (Read 230411 times)

Offline bolun

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #320 on: 01/18/2012 04:21 pm »
From http://twitter.com/esaoperations

Quote
esaoperations ESA Operations
Just confirmed: ESA #spacedebris team continues waiting for inputs. Will tweet as soon as there's news! @riascience
1 hour ago

Offline sammie

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #321 on: 01/18/2012 04:23 pm »
Quote
Good will?   The Russian story about the Radar is on the AP now, and everywhere

That's more proof of retardation with the public and the news agencies. A message from Ria Novosti dismissing these outlandish claims by Russian scientist doesn't get nearly the same international uptake.

Lets face it, this blaming of Americans fits perfectly within our idea on how the Russians will react. It confirms our view, it's spectacular, the media and we love, therefor we'll read all about it, everywhere.

The boring truth, as reported in Russia, isn't nearly as popular
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #322 on: 01/18/2012 06:00 pm »
I was wondering, I haven't seen any coverage on this: "U.S. Removes Phobos-Grunt Data from Web"

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awx/2012/01/18/awx_01_18_2012_p0-415578.xml&headline=U.S.%20Removes%20Phobos-Grunt%20Data%20from%20Web&channel=space

Did I miss the link or discussion about Space-Track.org removing the data at some point?
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Offline John Duncan

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #323 on: 01/18/2012 06:01 pm »
I believe that is a statement about the relative intelligence of said public and news agencies.


Offline input~2

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #324 on: 01/18/2012 07:07 pm »
I was wondering, I haven't seen any coverage on this: "U.S. Removes Phobos-Grunt Data from Web"

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awx/2012/01/18/awx_01_18_2012_p0-415578.xml&headline=U.S.%20Removes%20Phobos-Grunt%20Data%20from%20Web&channel=space

Did I miss the link or discussion about Space-Track.org removing the data at some point?
Phobos-Grunt has indeed disappeared from Space-Track.org reentry database :(

Offline olasek

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #325 on: 01/18/2012 07:39 pm »
Look, there were two competing stories in the Russian press. One with this "USA did it" tagline and a little later there was a story in the Russian press on how this is unlikely and rather bogus story. Which one gets picked up by the AFP and western press?
And the first one is rightly much more important. First, the "blame USA" tagline has been going on for some time, definitely got a lot of traction by now. Secondly the whole thing was spun up for purely internal Russian consumption, there are many Russians dissatisfied with their loss of super-power status and are too eager to latch onto such conspiracy theories. Politicians like Zirinowsky thrive on stuff like this. I bet if you ask an average Russian now, the first "tagline" has made much more impression on them, most probably even missed all the fine print that followed. Frankly once the story was concocted it will be very hard to erase it from very many Russian minds and this is were the center of gravity of the story is.
« Last Edit: 01/18/2012 07:57 pm by olasek »

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #326 on: 01/18/2012 10:21 pm »
Spaceflight does not take place in a vacuum.

What I mean by this startling statement, of course, is that it occurs
in political, social, and diplomatic contexts.

And the way it interacts with those contexts, I believe, is a reasonable topic for discussion -- just not for soapboxing [US slang for monologues proclaiming one's own political views].

The cultural theme of a "classical" Russian propensity for blaming problems on hostile outsiders is extremely relevant, in my opinion, to assessing the credibility of spaceflight safety analyses and reforms.

Ditto the 'classic' types of US cultural biases, and NASA cultural biases, and their demonstrably harmful influences on American spaceflight safety/reliability.

It strikes me that one of the most valuable unexpected benefits of international partnerships is how participants are painfully weaned from their own narrow world views. I speak from personal experience.

One of the most rewarding and encouraging trends I've seen in the post-Sovietshchina era is the rise of powerful in-country Russian space historians and commentators. Any strident Western reaction to evidence of Russian 'back-sliding' can be explained by our hope that recent cultural changes are not reversable.

And the natives of Pindostan should be expected to accept similar reactions to resurgent jingoism whenever it is seen and criticized by our truest friends, the truth-tellers in other nations who share our passion for and devotion to the greatest human adventure in history, our breakout into space.. 

« Last Edit: 01/18/2012 10:23 pm by JimO »

Offline Antares

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #327 on: 01/19/2012 05:15 am »
We need the definitive DoD report based on space-based IR sensors -- where do we go to bang on the door?

For some reason I found Reply #220 to be definitive.  Granted, usernames are like .... everyone has one.  Maybe a PM from an established space journalist could collect enough truth to satisfy the masses.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #328 on: 01/19/2012 10:46 am »
The ESA promise dated Jan 16 to release entry conclusions 'shortly' -- has disappeared.

http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Space_Debris/index.html

« Last Edit: 01/19/2012 10:47 am by JimO »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #329 on: 01/19/2012 01:27 pm »
With all these blackouts, what are they covering up, or is someone not releasing the info to eval Russian capabilities to (not) track reentries and see how large the gaps really are?

Or did DSP miss the reentry and they are trying to cover that up?

(Okay time to iron my tin foil hat)
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Offline rdale

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #330 on: 01/19/2012 01:31 pm »
Well if it is a coverup, I hardly believe the people responsible for doing so are going to come on NSF and post that. Give it time - answers will come...

Offline Prober

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #331 on: 01/19/2012 01:52 pm »
Spaceflight does not take place in a vacuum.

What I mean by this startling statement, of course, is that it occurs
in political, social, and diplomatic contexts.


Excellent post JimO.

You might help explain to the good guys the “truth-tellers” how the “end results” of the blame game has filtered from their local culture into my local experience.

Before I could sip down my first cup of coffee this morning I was treated to this Russian Radar story by our local news (possible coverage 2 million people).   The story will continue to grow during the day (sadly).

Now the real sad part was the twist on the story.  Clearly we have our own “harmful influences” as the story was twisted or slanted IMHO to “inflame”.  Not sure if this was a local take from the AP, or other news source, or from a National source in this case ABC (local affiliate).    My take this story was used locally for someone’s own agenda, sadly.

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Offline Prober

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #332 on: 01/19/2012 01:56 pm »
Well if it is a coverup, I hardly believe the people responsible for doing so are going to come on NSF and post that. Give it time - answers will come...

This I found posted was the best "simple" answer.

"Phobos-Grunt crashed in the southern Pacific between New Zealand and South America"

http://www.n2yo.com
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Offline rdale

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #333 on: 01/19/2012 02:22 pm »
This I found posted was the best "simple" answer.

I'm not seeing it there... Can you copy-n-paste what he says about the missing US tracking data?

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #334 on: 01/19/2012 02:49 pm »
This I found posted was the best "simple" answer.

I'm not seeing it there... Can you copy-n-paste what he says about the missing US tracking data?

It is a sticky note in the upper left corner, and all it says is "Phobos-Grunt crashed in the southern Pacific between New Zealand and South America".

What is that website anyway, I love the article title "US Army Shuttle is Chasing China’a Space Station" that it links to (roll eyes). The link selection does not seem to be very current or accurate.
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Offline rdale

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #335 on: 01/19/2012 02:58 pm »
This I found posted was the best "simple" answer.

I'm not seeing it there... Can you copy-n-paste what he says about the missing US tracking data?

It is a sticky note in the upper left corner, and all it says is "Phobos-Grunt crashed in the southern Pacific between New Zealand and South America".

So... it doesn't answer the question?

Offline spin0

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #336 on: 01/19/2012 03:01 pm »
Possible eyewitness?
Dr Karl told in a BBC radio show that he saw Phobos-Grunt re-entry in Australia @04.39AM.
He describes it as "instead of thin [usual meteor] streak, it was a big fat streak, sparking, bubbling and yellow".

BBC podcast "Dr Karl and the Naked Scientist": http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/fivelive/drkarl/drkarl_20120119-0410a.mp3 (at the beginning)

Offline Prober

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #337 on: 01/19/2012 03:27 pm »
This I found posted was the best "simple" answer.

I'm not seeing it there... Can you copy-n-paste what he says about the missing US tracking data?

It is a sticky note in the upper left corner, and all it says is "Phobos-Grunt crashed in the southern Pacific between New Zealand and South America".

What is that website anyway, I love the article title "US Army Shuttle is Chasing China’a Space Station" that it links to (roll eyes). The link selection does not seem to be very current or accurate.

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Offline edkyle99

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #338 on: 01/19/2012 05:11 pm »
With all these blackouts, what are they covering up, or is someone not releasing the info to eval Russian capabilities to (not) track reentries and see how large the gaps really are?

Or did DSP miss the reentry and they are trying to cover that up?

(Okay time to iron my tin foil hat)

If the U.S. wanted to feed the destructive radar theory, it could not have found a better way to do so than to remove the orbit data in an atypical matter.  The only possible conclusion to a casual observer is that the U.S. government is covering something up.  The next obvious conclusion is that the Russian theory must have a basis.  Therefore the U.S. government must be covering up the fact that its deadly super-powerful radar accidentally burned out Phobos Grunt's control system.  Etc.

I recently read a copy of the Chicago Tribune that was issued just after the December 7, 1941 Pearl Harbor raid.  It is full of strange reports about the U.S. fleet and its aircraft from Hawaii chasing the Japanese fleet, that it would soon surely catch and destroy them, and that perhaps a ship or two had been damaged in the raid at Pearl Harbor.  In a side column was a report from the German embassy that claimed that several U.S. battleships, including the Arizona specifically, had been sunk in the harbor and that the Japanese fleet had escaped unscathed.  The Tribune brushed off that report as "propaganda", but it turned out to be the only accurate information in the entire paper on Pearl Harbor that day.

So, who is to say that the Russian theory isn't based on something real?

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/19/2012 05:16 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: Fobos-Grunt EOM Re-Entry Latest
« Reply #339 on: 01/19/2012 07:00 pm »
The latest Orbital Debris Quarterly News has an interesting article in it on the probability of a satellite reentering over land based on the inclination of it's orbit.

http://www.orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/newsletter/pdfs/ODQNv16i1.pdf

I think it will be very useful for the next time we have a reentry like this.

Now if we had a similar chart that graphed chances of debris landing on someone verses inclination ...
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