Commercial space prospects

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krytek
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« Reply #15 on: 12/21/2011 03:46 PM »

Yep. The first customers will not be tourists or companies, but countries without a space program or (sufficient)access to the ISS.

http://www.spacenews.com/venture_space/101022-bigelow-modules-interest-six-governments.html

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/article.php?section=technology&article=uae-signs-with-bigelow-aerospace-to-work-on-human-spaceflight-programme&utm_source=googleNews&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=news_feed

false, no one has stepped up
Doesn't mean it's false. First, too much stuff goes on behind the scene, no one stepping up publicly doesn't mean there's no discussions or interested parties. Secondly, no one stepping up NOW doesn't mean no one will bite
when the capability is ready.
ChefPat
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« Reply #16 on: 12/21/2011 06:22 PM »

Whether there is a business case or not, Bigelow has committed to putting up 2 BA-330's when crew transport becomes available.
If somebody can use them to turn a profit & succesfully repeat that profitable activity, then more are sure to go up.
hop
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« Reply #17 on: 12/21/2011 07:12 PM »

Whether there is a business case or not, Bigelow has committed to putting up 2 BA-330's when crew transport becomes available.
I don't see a commitment. He isn't going to fly it unless someone is buying.

My take is that Bigelow tried very hard to pitch to everyone who might be listening (NASA, companies, sovereign foreign clients) with various configurations (Sundancer, BA-330, ISS module, lunar modules etc...) They obviously couldn't get any commitments of serious money without the transport problem being solved. If they had, they would be finishing their vehicle, not laying off their engineering staff.

So now Bigelow is going into hibernation until there is some more solid transport options. That puts them in a position to pitch it again, but the outcome of that is highly uncertain. All this is a sensible business decision, but it should be clear that Bigelow are trying to spin it in the most positive light possible. When someone tells you they laid off half their employees because they were too successful, it's a fair bet they aren't being totally objective ;)

If the "potential customers" who are supposedly unwilling to commit without transport *really* wanted a space station, they'd invest in the solving the transport problem. There's little reason to doubt that CST-100 or crew Dragon or Dream Chaser can be completed and flown, given someone willing to commit the necessary funding. The obvious conclusion is that none of the "potential customers" want a space station that badly.
ChefPat
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« Reply #18 on: 12/22/2011 02:12 AM »

I don't see a commitment. He isn't going to fly it unless someone is buying.
He's said it in presentations that were also recorded on video. The Bigelow Updates 1 Thread will have them. He stated quite clearly the business case didn't matter.
hop
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« Reply #19 on: 12/22/2011 05:19 AM »

He's said it in presentations that were also recorded on video. The Bigelow Updates 1 Thread will have them.
That thread pre-dates the decision to lay off a large portion of his engineering staff. Judging by actions, BA aren't even going to finish development unless they get some some serious interest.
Quote
He stated quite clearly the business case didn't matter.
In reality, he doesn't have unlimited resources.

In this article http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/08/science/space/08space.html?pagewanted=all he said
Quote
“You have to trust a little bit that we’re making these investments because we think it’s going to make sense economically at the end of the day,” Mr. Bigelow said. “We won’t execute our business plan if those numbers aren’t there.”
Robotbeat
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« Reply #20 on: 12/22/2011 05:57 AM »

He does, actually, sort of have unlimited resources, just a small amount at a time ;). The company gets income from stock market investments, so there's always a trickle of sorts. That means they could theoretically operate in "stealth mode" indefinitely, or until Bigelow gets bored with it (which would probably happen if they don't do anything). It's kind of his hobby.

Hopefully they can make real progress, though.
krytek
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« Reply #21 on: 12/24/2011 03:31 PM »

What about things beside spacehabs.

Do you think LEO constellations will expand in the next 5 years?

I mean Google is currently developing a satellite internet protocol.
Considering the advantages of such a set up (in LEO), satellite internet might actually be a viable alternative in some regions.
spaceStalker
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« Reply #22 on: 12/24/2011 04:32 PM »

How many satellites are launch annually?
Whats price range per kilogram and destination?
Robotbeat
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« Reply #23 on: 12/24/2011 04:43 PM »

What about things beside spacehabs.

Do you think LEO constellations will expand in the next 5 years?
Yes, but we kind of already know exactly which ones and by how much. Mostly launched by SpaceX, I believe (Orbcomm and Iridium).

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I mean Google is currently developing a satellite internet protocol.
Considering the advantages of such a set up (in LEO), satellite internet might actually be a viable alternative in some regions.
GSO internet is already used in several places. LEO broadband internet, while theoretically allowing both lower power, smaller antennae, and lower latency, is still kind of a ways off. Iridium's new constellation does have greater capability for handling data throughput, making higher bandwidth internet connections possible if you can afford it. (Iridium NEXT is supposed to launch on Falcon 9s from Vandenberg between 2015 and 2017.)

There are a few other companies like that out there, such as 03b (medium Earth orbit constellation of 8 satellites targeting the third world, or at least southern and low-latitude northern hemisphere) and "COMMstellaion" (LEO constellation of 78 microsats). But once they launch (if they get to the point of having enough money to launch), their launch demand won't be that high (they can last for a decade or two), and such a LEO or MEO constellation may well have a total mass that may actually be lower than a typical GSO constellation. They might cause an extra 10 launches every ten years or so for an average of 1 per year (multiple satellites per launch) for 03b and COMMstellation combined, but that's actually pretty small compared to the global commercial market.

There's continued growth there, but I wouldn't characterize it as explosive. We still have many of the constellations launched initially in the late 1990s, and they're only now starting to be really upgraded rather slowly.

To be honest, the demand isn't anywhere near what the annual upmass requirement of a well-stocked Bigelow-type station with regular visits would be (they've talked about a couple dozen flights per station per year, which may be what's required for it to be profitable).


One thing you have to keep in mind: there were NO commercial payload launches on US launch vehicles in 2011. None. All the commercial launch market is being handled by foreign companies. There are plenty of US commercial satellite manufacturers who would rather launch domestically if there was a competitively priced US launcher available, so if done right, there may well be room for a US-based commercial launch vehicle (ULA is too expensive, now that Delta II is retired). To support much more than one or two, there will have to be a large increase in launch demand somewhere.

(Yes, labor costs are higher in the US, but there are other advantages. The cost difference has been lowered in the last few years, as wages in the rest of the world have increased. Increased automation and different manufacturing techniques can partially make up for the difference in labor costs.)
krytek
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« Reply #24 on: 01/07/2012 08:24 PM »

I just realized space telescopes could also make a contribution
Look at DARPA's membrane telescope in development
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=e4e7aaf4b8a7c676d2958cf06356a029&tab=core&_cview=1
if a telescope could be made for less than say $100-200M with the same power as the Hubble, there might be a case for potentially tens of those globally.
Comga
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« Reply #25 on: 01/07/2012 08:52 PM »

I just realized space telescopes could also make a contribution
Look at DARPA's membrane telescope in development
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=e4e7aaf4b8a7c676d2958cf06356a029&tab=core&_cview=1
if a telescope could be made for less than say $100-200M with the same power as the Hubble, there might be a case for potentially tens of those globally.

The membrane image technology of MOIRE is in the very early gestation stage, TRL 3 or 4.  (But it is really neat and in very capable hands!) It is at least premature to envision an new class of missions based on it with the volume to support a new burgeoning commercial space launch industry. 

Patience, Grasshopper.
Orbital Debris
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« Reply #26 on: 01/22/2012 05:25 AM »

But Bigelow wants to build more then 1 Station and it seems that there are enough potential customers to support that....so my bet is on Bigelow :)

I'd bet against you on that.  Bigelow is simply talk at this point, with no real substance, and not as much capital as you would think.  If there are no other business cases, then the entire premise is flawed.

And as they say in Las Vegas, never take another man's bet.  I've seen all the cards.  ;D
JohnFornaro
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« Reply #27 on: 01/22/2012 02:45 PM »

If there were a perfect market for launch vehicles, the above would certainly be true. But, we live in a world with an imperfect launch vehicle market, so the above is certainly not going to be true, unless something drastic happens.

I agree that the "market" is decidedly imperfect; since subsidy is the name of the game.  It will be interesting to see how that drastic happening comes about.
savuporo
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« Reply #28 on: 01/22/2012 04:43 PM »

Bigelow is simply talk at this point..

I don't think you could call it simply talk at this point.
They certainly have the tech and capability, not sure if they have a business.
SpacexULA
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« Reply #29 on: 01/22/2012 06:50 PM »

I don't think you could call it simply talk at this point.
They certainly have the tech and capability, not sure if they have a business.

Your not dead till your warm and dead.  Bigelow is effectively in coma till CCDEV bares fruit.

Once there is a commerical crew launcher, if Bigelow stays in coma, yea it's dead.
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