Author Topic: Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS  (Read 6634 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

Ted O'Callahan sent me his article on the above, and it's a really good read, so linking it up...

Is there profit in outer space?
http://qn.som.yale.edu/content/there-profit-outer-space

Offline Spiff

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Thank you, that was a very nice and insightfull read.
I always consider space to be the FIRST frontier.

Offline tigerade

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Good read there, puts the big picture into perspective.

Online Robotbeat

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Yeah, Bill Claybaugh is a pretty intelligent (maybe even wise) person. He's on the arocket list and is a voice of reason and extensive industry experience. Or at least something to tamp down some of the overly optimistic ideas on there. Sometimes a voice of pessimism is necessary or helpful. (Not that I know him very well, see comment below by Antares.)
« Last Edit: 01/06/2012 08:56 PM by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Antares

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He's the scariest guy I've met in the industry.  His "advice" when he was a Constellation guy at NASA, which I think I took correctly as a threat, was one of the reasons I stopped working on Constellation.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline tigerade

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He's the scariest guy I've met in the industry.  His "advice" when he was a Constellation guy at NASA, which I think I took correctly as a threat, was one of the reasons I stopped working on Constellation.

Hmm?  explain.

Offline Antares

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On the Internet? LMAO.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline manboy

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On the Internet? LMAO.
So you discredit a man but refuse to explain why he ought to be discredited?
"Cheese has been sent into space before. But the same cheese has never been sent into space twice." - StephenB

Offline Antares

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Your username is not your given name too, so you understand the need for anonymity.  Besides, I didn't intend it as discrediting, just a description and counterpoint to Robotbeat's.  I believe what he says, obviously.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Online Robotbeat

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Your username is not your given name too, so you understand the need for anonymity.  Besides, I didn't intend it as discrediting, just a description and counterpoint to Robotbeat's.  I believe what he says, obviously.

Just in case anyone is confused, I have had no personal contact with Bill whatsoever, so I don't know what he's really like.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS
« Reply #10 on: 01/09/2012 02:55 AM »
One thing is certain: it won't be cheap. Aerospace compensation can average $200,000 a year....

So, how do I get one of those elusive $200k jobs?  I'd be more than happy to return to the aerospace biz for that! :)

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS
« Reply #11 on: 01/09/2012 03:51 AM »
One thing is certain: it won't be cheap. Aerospace compensation can average $200,000 a year....

So, how do I get one of those elusive $200k jobs?  I'd be more than happy to return to the aerospace biz for that! :)
I tend to think that the often thrown about figure of several hundred thousand is for "fully burdened" aerospace compensation, including benefits, HR overhead, etc.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline BeanEstimator

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Re: Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS
« Reply #12 on: 01/09/2012 08:23 PM »
He's the scariest guy I've met in the industry.  His "advice" when he was a Constellation guy at NASA, which I think I took correctly as a threat, was one of the reasons I stopped working on Constellation.

Ha, this made me chuckle.

I've talked to Bill quite a few times, on a variety of different subjects.  Mostly from the cost and schedule side.  Even on CxP, from what I guess were the early days...to the end days...

He occasionally comes thru HQ as well.  You can normally find him, or somebody else from Orbital at the STA meetings too...

I understand what you're saying, and I get the meaning.  Either you've experienced it, or you haven't.  It would be hard to explain.

I guess all I could offer is that this quote in the article from him about sums it up for me:

"With craft manufacture where you're making a few a year—and these are very complex, very high-energy devices that operate near materials and physical limits—the chance of accurately predicting how long it will take to develop these systems is, I think, near zero,"

I recall him mentioning this "theme" multiple times, either while I was presenting something that attempted to predict, or while somebody else was presenting something along the same lines.  Ha.

That said, a pint with Bill is time well spent IMHO.  Although he could be a bit "brash", I think he mostly meant well.  To each their own.     

Good article, great find OP.
Note:  My posts are meant to discuss matters of public concern.  Posts and opinions are entirely my own and do not represent NASA, the government, or anyone else.

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Offline Antares

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Re: Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS
« Reply #13 on: 01/10/2012 03:17 AM »
Good counterpoint.  Maybe he was trying to give me legitimate advice - that if I was going to continue saying the things I was saying, that I needed to get out.  He still strikes me as part of the "NASA will pick its winners based on personal relationships and not technical merit" crowd.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS
« Reply #14 on: 01/10/2012 03:54 AM »
Good counterpoint.  Maybe he was trying to give me legitimate advice - that if I was going to continue saying the things I was saying, that I needed to get out.  He still strikes me as part of the "NASA will pick its winners based on personal relationships and not technical merit" crowd.
He may be a hardened cynic, you never know.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline BeanEstimator

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Re: Nice Yale School of Management article on Orbital COTS/CRS
« Reply #15 on: 01/10/2012 08:26 PM »
Good counterpoint.  Maybe he was trying to give me legitimate advice - that if I was going to continue saying the things I was saying, that I needed to get out.  He still strikes me as part of the "NASA will pick its winners based on personal relationships and not technical merit" crowd.

For what its worth, I do think there is some truth in your hypothesis...
Note:  My posts are meant to discuss matters of public concern.  Posts and opinions are entirely my own and do not represent NASA, the government, or anyone else.

"Balancing Act: Public Employees and Free Speech"
http://bit.ly/Nfy3ke

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