### Author Topic: LIVE: Shenzhou 9 (SZ-9), Long March 2F/G (CZ-2F/G) - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012  (Read 517996 times)

#### Satori

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G, Jiuquan, June 2012 launch
« Reply #140 on: 06/03/2012 12:57 PM »
Yuanwang-6 arrived at Fiji to monitor the SZ-9 docking mission (image and info from 9ifly space forum).

#### Galactic Penguin SST

##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G, Jiuquan, June 2012 launch
« Reply #141 on: 06/04/2012 05:08 PM »
OK, here's an analysis of the launch windows of SZ-9, using the longitude of the ascending node of TG-1 during the launch of SZ-8 (which should have more or less the same launch profile) and project it to the case of SZ-9. (thanks to 9ifly member darklighter)

These three equations are useful for the calculations:

Due to the oblate shape of the Earth, the LAN of an object in orbit actually moves around. The rate of change of the LAN can be estimated by this equation:

ΔΩ = -9.964 * (Re / a)^3.5 * (1 - e^2)^0.5 * cos(i) (Eq. *)

Re = Earth radius (6,378,138 m)
a = orbit's semi-major axis
e = eccentricity
i = equatorial inclination

Then we can get the LAN of TG-1 at any time: Ωt(t) = Ωt0 + ΔΩt * (t - Tt0) + 360 * n1 (Eq. 1) (n1 is an integer such that Ωt(t) is between 0 and 360)

To get the relationship of the LAN of the chasing spacecraft (SZ-9 in this case) at orbit insertion and the launch time, we can use a similar launch and compare the LAN with its launch time, and project it to this launch. Here the reference launch is SZ-8.

Ω0(t) = (t - T0h) * ωe + Ω0h + 360 * n2 (Eq. 2)
t = launch time
ωe = Earth's angular rotation speed (= 360.9856 deg./day)
n2 is an integer such that Ωt(t) is between 0 and 360

Combining the last two equations, we have
T = (ωe * T0 - ΔΩ * T1 + Ω1 - Ω0 + 360 * n)) / (ωe - ΔΩ) (Eq. 3)

T0 is the launch time of the spacecraft of our reference launch. In this case it's the launch time of SZ-8, 2011-10-31 21:58:10 UTC (40847.915394 days since 1900-01-01 00:00:00 UTC).

Ω0 is the LAN of TG-1 during our reference launch. From NORAD data, it's about 359.762 deg.

T1 is the epoch time of the target spacecraft (TG-1) for a certain TLE. Here we use the TLE data on June 2 @ 08:54 UTC (41062.371069 days since 1900-01-01 00:00:00 UTC).

Ω1 is the LAN of TG-1 at T1, which is 141.0052 deg.

ΔΩ is the rate of change of the LAN of TG-1 in the orbit as shown in the TLE at T1. Assume that TG-1 is in a 336 km circular orbit, the rate is -6.1102  deg/day.

Thus we can calculate the launch time of SZ-9 at n days after last October 31 (launch of SZ-8). So for n=224 (June 10), T = 41070.559211 (= 13:25:16 UTC on June 10). For others days, substitute a different value of n.

He calculated the launch windows of SZ-9 as follows: (Given that TG-1 can still change its orbit, the error is about 5 minutes)

UTC                                Beijing time
2012-06-10 13:25:16    2012-06-10 21:25:16
2012-06-11 12:57:26    2012-06-11 20:57:26
2012-06-12 12:29:36    2012-06-12 20:29:36
2012-06-13 12:01:46    2012-06-13 20:01:46
2012-06-14 11:33:56    2012-06-14 19:33:56
2012-06-15 11:06:05    2012-06-15 19:06:05
2012-06-16 10:38:15    2012-06-16 18:38:15
2012-06-17 10:10:25    2012-06-17 18:10:25
2012-06-18 09:42:35    2012-06-18 17:42:35
2012-06-19 09:14:45    2012-06-19 17:14:45
2012-06-20 08:46:55    2012-06-20 16:46:55
2012-06-21 08:19:05    2012-06-21 16:19:05
2012-06-22 07:51:15    2012-06-22 15:51:15
2012-06-23 07:23:25    2012-06-23 15:23:25
2012-06-24 06:55:35    2012-06-24 14:55:35
2012-06-25 06:27:45    2012-06-25 14:27:45
2012-06-26 05:59:55    2012-06-26 13:59:55
2012-06-27 05:32:05    2012-06-27 13:32:05
2012-06-28 05:04:15    2012-06-28 13:04:15
2012-06-29 04:36:24    2012-06-29 12:36:24
2012-06-30 04:08:34    2012-06-30 12:08:34

Note: Apparently the current trend points to launch at around June 15 (and I heard a rumor that it might even be moving up (!)), and the Chinese television channels are now starting to play promos about upcoming coverage of the mission, so sit back and enjoy the show...
« Last Edit: 06/04/2012 05:28 PM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

#### Dalhousie

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G, Jiuquan, June 2012 launch
« Reply #142 on: 06/04/2012 09:45 PM »
It's nice seeing launch dates move to the left and not the right!
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#### erwei

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G, Jiuquan, June 2012 launch
« Reply #143 on: 06/05/2012 12:21 PM »
SZ-9's targeted launch time atm is 16 June 10:41 UTC
It's planed as a maximum 13 day mission.

#### Satori

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G, Jiuquan, June 2012 launch
« Reply #144 on: 06/05/2012 12:57 PM »
SZ-9's targeted launch time atm is 16 June 10:41 UTC

Is it possible to have a source of this information?

#### cd-slam

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G, Jiuquan, June 2012 launch
« Reply #145 on: 06/05/2012 01:10 PM »
SZ-9's targeted launch time atm is 16 June 10:41 UTC

Is it possible to have a source of this information?
It's appearing on some media sites, supposedly "sources from Beijing". But I've seen other dates too.

#### erwei

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G, Jiuquan, June 2012 launch
« Reply #146 on: 06/05/2012 02:02 PM »
SZ-9's targeted launch time atm is 16 June 10:41 UTC

Is it possible to have a source of this information?

I've sent you a PM

#### tonyq

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #147 on: 06/05/2012 09:16 PM »
Ofcourse, if this date (16th) turns out to be correct, China's first woman taikonaut will be launched into space on the 49th anniversary of the first spaceflight by a woman.

Coincidence?

#### Phillip Clark

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #148 on: 06/05/2012 09:21 PM »
Ofcourse, if this date (16th) turns out to be correct, China's first woman taikonaut will be launched into space on the 49th anniversary of the first spaceflight by a woman.
Coincidence?

I don't think this was long-term planned but I think that the Chinese will possibly exploit the coincidence.
I've always been crazy but it's kept me from going insane - WJ.

#### TJL

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #149 on: 06/05/2012 09:30 PM »
Ofcourse, if this date (16th) turns out to be correct, China's first woman taikonaut will be launched into space on the 49th anniversary of the first spaceflight by a woman.

Coincidence?

...and if it goes the 18th, it marks 29 years since the first U.S. female crew member.

#### Satori

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #150 on: 06/07/2012 08:32 PM »
If the SZ-9 Shenzhou-9 launch will take place on June 16, then we should expect that the CZ-2F Chang Zheng-2F (Y9) should be transported to the launch pad around next Saturday, June 9.

#### cd-slam

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #151 on: 06/08/2012 12:58 AM »
I had checked back in the Shenzhou 7 thread and found that the vehicle was rolled to the pad on September 20 and launched on September 25. So it may be a few days yet.

The crew for that mission was announced at a press conference on the day before the launch. This level of secrecy in China may be normal, but it is annoying.

#### tonyq

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #152 on: 06/08/2012 04:43 AM »
I had checked back in the Shenzhou 7 thread and found that the vehicle was rolled to the pad on September 20 and launched on September 25. So it may be a few days yet.

The crew for that mission was announced at a press conference on the day before the launch. This level of secrecy in China may be normal, but it is annoying.

Not 100% correct.
The crew were named in official media at T-9 days, and full biographies etc were published.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=5137.105

A recent poster a 9ifly is suggesting that roll out to the pad will be tomorrow (9th) too, but with launch on 15th?

#### tonyq

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #153 on: 06/08/2012 10:48 PM »
Chinese media coverage now confirms that SZ-9 is ready to be moved to the launchpad on Saturday 9th June.

http://news.xinmin.cn/domestic/gnkb/2012/06/09/15079255.html

Based on previous SZ's and TG-1, this suggests a launch in 5-7 days.

#### Satori

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #154 on: 06/08/2012 11:28 PM »
Chinese media coverage now confirms that SZ-9 is ready to be moved to the launchpad on Saturday 9th June.

http://news.xinmin.cn/domestic/gnkb/2012/06/09/15079255.html

Based on previous SZ's and TG-1, this suggests a launch in 5-7 days.

Great news! Thanks Tony!

#### Galactic Penguin SST

##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #155 on: 06/09/2012 04:07 AM »
It's 'rollin......
« Last Edit: 06/09/2012 04:34 AM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

#### Galactic Penguin SST

##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #156 on: 06/09/2012 08:05 AM »
News report on the rocket roll-out: http://news.cntv.cn/china/20120609/105025.shtml

Apparently SZ-9 arrived at JSLC on April 9 and the rocket arrived on May 9.
« Last Edit: 06/09/2012 10:01 AM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

#### HappyMartian

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #157 on: 06/09/2012 09:47 AM »
Some more publicity:

China Plans Its First Manned Space Docking   By KEVIN DREW   June 9, 2012
At: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/10/science/space/china-plans-its-first-manned-space-docking.html
"HONG KONG — China’s space agency said on Saturday that it will launch astronauts later in June to perform the country’s first manned space docking, the latest step in the country’s ambitious plan for space exploration."

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#### pberrett

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #158 on: 06/09/2012 11:36 AM »
Is there some way we can be notified in advance of when the launch will be? I'd rather not miss this launch.

Regards Peter

#### pberrett

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##### Re: SZ-9 Shenzhou 9, CZ-2F/G - Jiuquan - June 16, 2012 launch
« Reply #159 on: 06/09/2012 12:06 PM »
By the way I can confirm that the rocket has now rolled out to the pad. The only launch concern left however is birds.

cheers Peter

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