Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) - Re-entry

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Author Topic: Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) - Re-entry  (Read 49271 times)
jcm
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« Reply #300 on: 09/24/2011 06:45 PM »

Agreed, I conclude came down over Pacific, maybe a little early - SE of Hawaii with debris footprint stopping short of the Washington/Oregon coast.
But I am surprised if orbiting DSP satellites over the Pacific can't see the IR from the reentry - really? Or are we in a situation where one part of USSTRATCOM is not talking to the other part? - seems unlikely too.
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« Reply #301 on: 09/24/2011 06:49 PM »


But I am surprised if orbiting DSP satellites over the Pacific can't see the IR from the reentry - really? Or are we in a situation where one part of USSTRATCOM is not talking to the other part? - seems unlikely too.
The question of information on the reentry from "space asset" was raised but not answered ;)
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« Reply #302 on: 09/24/2011 07:16 PM »


But I am surprised if orbiting DSP satellites over the Pacific can't see the IR from the reentry - really? Or are we in a situation where one part of USSTRATCOM is not talking to the other part? - seems unlikely too.
The question of information on the reentry from "space asset" was raised but not answered ;)

I guess no one on this site wants to face the possibility that we may never know exactly where it came down.
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« Reply #303 on: 09/24/2011 07:24 PM »

Missile warning satellites see bolides all the time.  So that squadron definitely knows where the plasma streak was.
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« Reply #304 on: 09/24/2011 07:40 PM »

Missile warning satellites see bolides all the time.  So that squadron definitely knows where the plasma streak was.

They have their limits too.
If any fragments or large chunks survived the fiery entry, variables
such as remoteness of location or not, lack of visual observation, 
aerodynamic caprices, and meteorology can make those objects
go to an unknown watery grave within a couple of hundred square miles
I would think.
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« Reply #305 on: 09/24/2011 08:23 PM »

RELEASE: 11-350

NASA'S UARS RE-ENTERS EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE

WASHINGTON - NASA's decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite
(UARS) fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and
1:09 a.m. Sept. 24, 20 years and nine days after its launch on a
14-year mission that produced some of the first long-term records of
chemicals in the atmosphere.

The precise re-entry time and location of debris impacts have not been
determined. During the re-entry period, the satellite passed from the
east coast of Africa over the Indian Ocean, then the Pacific Ocean,
then across northern Canada, then across the northern Atlantic Ocean,
to a point over West Africa. The vast majority of the orbital transit
was over water, with some flight over northern Canada and West
Africa.

Six years after the end of its productive scientific life, UARS broke
into pieces during re-entry, and most of it up burned in the
atmosphere. Data indicates the satellite likely broke apart and
landed in the Pacific Ocean far off the U.S. coast. Twenty-six
satellite components, weighing a total of about 1,200 pounds, could
have survived the fiery re-entry and reach the surface of Earth.
However, NASA is not aware of any reports of injury or property
damage.

The Operations Center for JFCC-Space, the Joint Functional Component
Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., which works around the
clock detecting, identifying and tracking all man-made objects in
Earth orbit, tracked the movements of UARS through the satellite's
final orbits and provided confirmation of re-entry.

"We extend our appreciation to the Joint Space Operations Center for
monitoring UARS not only this past week but also throughout its
entire 20 years on orbit," said Nick Johnson, NASA's chief scientist
for orbital debris, at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston. "This
was not an easy re-entry to predict because of the natural forces
acting on the satellite as its orbit decayed. Space-faring nations
around the world also were monitoring the satellite's descent in the
last two hours and all the predictions were well within the range
estimated by JSpOC."

UARS was launched Sept. 12, 1991, aboard space shuttle mission STS-48
and deployed on Sept. 15, 1991. It was the first multi-instrumented
satellite to observe numerous chemical components of the atmosphere
for better understanding of photochemistry. UARS data marked the
beginning of many long-term records for key chemicals in the
atmosphere. The satellite also provided key data on the amount of
light that comes from the sun at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths.
UARS ceased its scientific life in 2005.

Because of the satellite's orbit, any surviving components of UARS
should have landed within a zone between 57 degrees north latitude
and 57 degrees south latitude. It is impossible to pinpoint just
where in that zone the debris landed, but NASA estimates the debris
footprint to be about 500 miles long.

For more information about UARS, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/uars

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« Reply #306 on: 09/24/2011 08:57 PM »

New York Times article
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/25/science/space/25satellite.html
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« Reply #307 on: 09/24/2011 09:06 PM »

Agreed, I conclude came down over Pacific, maybe a little early - SE of Hawaii with debris footprint stopping short of the Washington/Oregon coast.
But I am surprised if orbiting DSP satellites over the Pacific can't see the IR from the reentry - really? Or are we in a situation where one part of USSTRATCOM is not talking to the other part? - seems unlikely too.

USSTRATCOM stopped releasing DSP-derived information on meteor entries a couple of years ago, presumably out of some sort of security worry.  So, while it seems extremely likely that they saw the UARS entry, I'm not too surprised that they aren't releasing the information. And if they didn't see it, I want a tax refund.
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« Reply #308 on: 09/24/2011 09:23 PM »


But I am surprised if orbiting DSP satellites over the Pacific can't see the IR from the reentry - really? Or are we in a situation where one part of USSTRATCOM is not talking to the other part? - seems unlikely too.
The question of information on the reentry from "space asset" was raised but not answered ;)

I'm really amazed by the total lack of information.  We've been shooting warheads toward the South Pacific and tracking them for four/five decades now.  There's a Sea-Based X-band radar somewhere out there, and it's hard to believe a nice tracking opportunity would be passed up.  Here's an instance of orbital bombardment of debris, of objects re-entering the atmosphere off the coast of the US, and no one bothered to point any assets at it?  There are satellite assets which track all sorts of signals and signatures, as mentioned.

With all of that, the best anyone can give is a hemisphere-sized window where it might have come down, and a one-hour time window?

Granted, the track is quite different than an assumed most-likely threat coming from North Korea, but are there no assets to track sub-launched ballistic threats coming from the South Pacific? 
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« Reply #309 on: 09/24/2011 09:40 PM »

It's also a Saturday. Give it a few. It didn't hit anyone, so that really diminishes the need to care. Nobody cares anymore...
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« Reply #310 on: 09/24/2011 09:47 PM »

It's also a Saturday. Give it a few. It didn't hit anyone, so that really diminishes the need to care. Nobody cares anymore...

exactly, why share sensitive assets for something no one cares about. 
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« Reply #311 on: 09/24/2011 10:56 PM »

[NASA] RELEASE: 11-350

Space-faring nations
around the world also were monitoring the satellite's descent in the
last two hours and all the predictions were well within the range
estimated by JSpOC.

They were, were they?  I think everyone was monitoring Twitter and RSS feeds, but apparently no one was actually monitoring UARS itself.  We have dozens of re-created simulations, and repeated predictions of the 26 components to survive breakup, but no one actually tested those simulations and predictions by measuring reality?  How can NASA say those predictions matched up over the last two hours, when they apparently had only one or two data points, and can't say where or when the re-entry took place?

I'll admit, my expectations are probably too high, based on launch vehicle telemetry and precise ground tracking.  But two Twitters, at most, in the hour when re-entry is predicted and expected?  And that was the highest data rate information...everything else was re-hashed regurgitation.  And a loooooong pause at the end, essentially waiting until civilian spotters failed to see a track over NW US / SW Canada.

I have this image of the USSTRATCOM person going to the bathroom and getting locked out of the tracking room, like the FAA flight controller a while back, because there seemed to be a deafening, awkward silence from the non-civilian part of the tracking system.


USSTRATCOM stopped releasing DSP-derived information on meteor entries a couple of years ago, presumably out of some sort of security worry.  So, while it seems extremely likely that they saw the UARS entry, I'm not too surprised that they aren't releasing the information. And if they didn't see it, I want a tax refund.

The problem with this view, the implicit trust of omniscient government, is that incompetence/ignorance is always a safer bet than omniscience.  Furthermore, if that information were available, all the USSTRATCOM officer needed to do was give a re-entry time and location, without indicating the source.  Even without a time or location, the AF could have definitively said yes the satellite was down.  This was not done, which very strongly suggests to me the AF and NASA had no clue.  This is a little unnerving, from a strategic weakness point of view. 

Even if somebody in the AF (or Navy, which you might expect out in the Pacific) had access to tracking information, it is still unnerving:  lack of ability to get tracking information to an office monitoring threats is equivalent to not having the information.  (For example, the radar tracks of the incoming Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor, or the FBI tracks of the eventual 9/11 bombers, neither of which managed to catch the attention of the leadership tasked with managing the related threats.)

Yes, yes, I realize UARS is just an old satellite:  this was no strategic threat.  No big deal in this case.  But it was also a very well-known target with a long lead-time, a perfect opportunity for tracking assets to practice what it is they are supposed to be doing.  The sound of crickets, or silence, is not what I'd expect at all.
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« Reply #312 on: 09/24/2011 11:06 PM »

Pacific Northwest airspace is ably defended by two F-15 fighters stationed in Portland, OR, and operated by the Air National Guard.  NORAD can scramble those on short notice.  Given the satellite was on a trajectory which would have taken it very close to Portland had it gone long, why wouldn't they have used those aircraft to get visual confirmation?  Or ... did they?
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« Reply #313 on: 09/24/2011 11:15 PM »

Given the satellite was on a trajectory which would have taken it very close to Portland had it gone long

Actually, the trajectory was midway between Portland and Seattle, passing north of Mt. Saint Helens, near Morton, WA.
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« Reply #314 on: 09/24/2011 11:26 PM »

why wouldn't they have used those aircraft to get visual confirmation?  Or ... did they?

What's to be gained by doing that?  Assuaging rumors on the internet?
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