Author Topic: Chinese sub-orbital launches  (Read 107622 times)

Offline beidou

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #120 on: 07/09/2014 07:01 PM »
Mysterious space launch in China in Tuesday evening, pictures from Microblog can be found here: http://bbs.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=12913&pid=311361&fromuid=24484
« Last Edit: 07/12/2014 08:54 PM by beidou »

Offline anik

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #121 on: 07/09/2014 07:52 PM »
Mysterious orbital launch in China in Tuesday evening, pictures from Microblog can be found here: http://bbs.9ifly.cn/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=12913&pid=311361&fromuid=24484

Orbital?
I can not see pictures.

Offline Liss

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #122 on: 07/09/2014 08:22 PM »
Probably another missile intercept.
Event seen in Inner Mongolia and Shandong.

« Last Edit: 07/09/2014 08:23 PM by Liss »
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline jcm

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Offline input~2

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« Last Edit: 07/26/2014 06:45 PM by input~2 »

Offline beidou

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Offline weedenbc

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #126 on: 08/04/2014 01:30 PM »
I'll note two things that strike me about this launch.

1) It was the first time since 2007 that the US government has publicly said that China conducted an ASAT test. They did not do so for the tests in Jan 2010 and Jan 2013 even though the Wikileaked cable sent after the 2010 test indicates that they knew full well it was another test of the same SC-19 system as used in 2007 and told China so in their demarche. The US also refrained from calling the May 2013 test of the new system that could potentially reach GEO, but did say that its profile did not match either a missile defense test or a space launch.

2) There was no mention in either the US or Chinese statements of this test about a target. In the Jan 2010 and Jan 2013 tests, both China and the US statements mentioned that there was a second ballistic launch of a target as well as an actual intercept.

The description of this test by China is very similar to the way they described the SC-19 testing in Jan 2010 and Jan 2013. But if this was another test of the same system, why do it if there wasn't a target? What would they gain when they've already tested it multiple times with three successful intercepts?

Could it be that this was NOT another test of the SC-19, but instead the second flight test of the new version that could reach nearly to GEO which I analyzed here:
http://swfound.org/media/167224/Through_a_Glass_Darkly_March2014.pdf

If so, that would account for both the US ability to clearly state that it was an ASAT test and not a missile defense test, AND account for the lack of a second launch of a ballistic target. It would also make sense in terms of the testing profile of a new system (first launch is a test of the rocket along with a science payload, second launch is of the rocket along with the first launch of an interceptor).

I honestly don't have any hard data to back that claim up, but it's the only thing that makes sense to me.

Comments and alternative hypotheses welcome.
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Offline beidou

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #127 on: 08/04/2014 07:31 PM »
I'll note two things that strike me about this launch.

1) It was the first time since 2007 that the US government has publicly said that China conducted an ASAT test.

The U.S. government has claimed (loudly!) that China conducted an ASAT test in 2007. I don't think this is the first time it has been saying so.


2) There was no mention in either the US or Chinese statements of this test about a target.

As it was a missile intercept test, there was even no need to state about a target, which was obvious. Otherwise, how come it could be an intercept test?

Offline weedenbc

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #128 on: 08/04/2014 08:09 PM »
The U.S. government has claimed (loudly!) that China conducted an ASAT test in 2007. I don't think this is the first time it has been saying so.

As I said, this is the first time SINCE 2007 the US has labeled such activity an ASAT test, despite other ASAT tests happening in 2005, 2006, 2010, and twice in 2013.

As it was a missile intercept test, there was even no need to state about a target, which was obvious. Otherwise, how come it could be an intercept test?

China did NOT say it was an intercept test, the language they used was an "anti-missile technology test":
http://www.mod.gov.cn/auth/2014-07/23/content_4524048.htm

And the US govt specifically said it was a "non-destructive test":
http://news.yahoo.com/us-says-china-tested-anti-satellite-missile-193630285.html

What value would there be in doing a non-destructive test of a system you've already successfully tested three times with actual intercepts?
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Offline Star One

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #129 on: 08/04/2014 09:06 PM »
Further analysis of this launch.

Quote
Not everyone is convinced China is developing an ABM system. Hans Kristensen, the director of the Nuclear Information Project for the Federation of American Scientists, is one of them.

“The first [observation] is wondering why China is spending effort and money on developing an anti-ballistic missile defense system given the enormous challenges and expenses the United States and Russia have had to dedicate to their efforts over the years with only partial success to show for it?” He said it seems highly unlikely that Chinese engineers would suddenly be able to overcome those challenges and deploy an effective ABM system.

Kristensen said his second observation is that a Chinese decision to develop and deploy an ABM system seems contradictory to China’s well-known opposition to US missile defense plans in the Pacific. He does not believe that a Chinese missile defense system would be able to counter the advanced and large US and Russian nuclear missile forces. It would be a somewhat different matter with India.

“If Indian military planners concluded that a Chinese ABM system was capable enough to threaten the effectiveness of India’s small nuclear deterrent aimed at China, it could potentially cause Indian planners to increase the number of long-range missiles it plans to deploy to deter China, or, which would be a worrisome and destabilizing development, begin to develop and deploy MIRVed [multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle] warheads on Indian ballistic missiles to overwhelm a Chinese ABM system,” he said. “In that case, a Chinese ABM system would seem to undermine rather than enhance Chinese security.”

Rest on link.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140804/DEFREG03/308040014/China-Developing-Capability-Kill-Satellites-Experts-Say

Offline weedenbc

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #130 on: 08/04/2014 09:40 PM »
China is not developing an ABM "system". They're developing hit-to-kill midcourse missile defense technology, which is also used for direct ascent ASATs. They're just calling it "missile defense" in public because that's politically acceptable, which ASATs are not.
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Brian Weeden

Offline Liss

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #131 on: 08/06/2014 01:52 PM »
Something non-trivial?

Quote
A1296/14 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N380256E0910144-N381135E0920925-N380058E0921135-N375219E0910401 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL. FOLLOW ATC INSTRUCTIONS. SFC - UNL, 07 AUG 02:55 2014 UNTIL 07 AUG 03:36 2014. CREATED: 06 AUG 02:23 2014

A1295/14 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N391540E1035356-N391655E1044941-N383347E1045100-N383231E1035548 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL. FOLLOW ATC INSTRUCTIONS. SFC - UNL, 07 AUG 02:55 2014 UNTIL 07 AUG 03:40 2014. CREATED: 06 AUG 02:13 2014
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #132 on: 08/06/2014 02:03 PM »
Something non-trivial?

Quote
A1296/14 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N380256E0910144-N381135E0920925-N380058E0921135-N375219E0910401 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL. FOLLOW ATC INSTRUCTIONS. SFC - UNL, 07 AUG 02:55 2014 UNTIL 07 AUG 03:36 2014. CREATED: 06 AUG 02:23 2014

A1295/14 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N391540E1035356-N391655E1044941-N383347E1045100-N383231E1035548 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS: SFC-UNL. FOLLOW ATC INSTRUCTIONS. SFC - UNL, 07 AUG 02:55 2014 UNTIL 07 AUG 03:40 2014. CREATED: 06 AUG 02:13 2014

People on 9ifly is noting that the closure zones looks very much like that of the alleged WU-14 test on January 9.... 
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Online Satori

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #133 on: 08/08/2014 07:44 AM »
Can some of our chinese speaking friends helps us understand the discussion that is going on the 9ifly space forum about a supposed missile launch failure?
« Last Edit: 08/08/2014 07:51 AM by Satori »

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #134 on: 08/08/2014 07:54 AM »
Can some of our chinese speaking friends helps us understand the discussion that is going on the 9ifly space forum about a supposed missile launch failure from Jiuquan?

Well there was some confusion on what happened, but it seems that the pictures of a rocket stage (1st stage?) are from yesterday and was NOT launched from Jiuquan as originally guessed (remember that there was supposed to be a satellite launch today?  ;)). The reported site of the rocket stage debris is in Otog, Inner Mongolia (38.92 N, 107.50 E), which does not match with the track that satellite launch is supposed to take.

On the other hand, it DOES fit with the missile launch track out of Taiyuan yesterday. Given the rocket has the standard paint job of satellite launchers, people there are guessing that some kind of sub-orbital test were done by the Long March 2C yesterday towards the west.  ::)
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline RLA

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #135 on: 08/10/2014 11:14 AM »
Can some of our chinese speaking friends helps us understand the discussion that is going on the 9ifly space forum about a supposed missile launch failure from Jiuquan?

Well there was some confusion on what happened, but it seems that the pictures of a rocket stage (1st stage?) are from yesterday and was NOT launched from Jiuquan as originally guessed (remember that there was supposed to be a satellite launch today?  ;)). The reported site of the rocket stage debris is in Otog, Inner Mongolia (38.92 N, 107.50 E), which does not match with the track that satellite launch is supposed to take.

On the other hand, it DOES fit with the missile launch track out of Taiyuan yesterday. Given the rocket has the standard paint job of satellite launchers, people there are guessing that some kind of sub-orbital test were done by the Long March 2C yesterday towards the west.  ::)
According to a source (and translated to English), it did happened already on the 7 of Augustus. 

Offline input~2

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #136 on: 08/10/2014 04:10 PM »
A view of the 2 no fly zones aligned with TSLC and the debris site (N385538E1073046) located on the flight path for the August 7 event.

Offline RLA

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #137 on: 08/10/2014 05:25 PM »
A view of the 2 no fly zones aligned with TSLC and the debris site (N385538E1073046) located on the flight path for the August 7 event.
I did done some fast calculations and I see the distance between TSLC and the place the rocket did crashed is only around 356 kilometers / 221 mile from TSLC.

Can it be likely that the first stage of the rocket (likely a Long march family rocket) did failed somewhere in mid-flight?

Offline Nighthawk

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #138 on: 08/11/2014 01:16 PM »
A view of the 2 no fly zones aligned with TSLC and the debris site (N385538E1073046) located on the flight path for the August 7 event.
I did done some fast calculations and I see the distance between TSLC and the place the rocket did crashed is only around 356 kilometers / 221 mile from TSLC.

Can it be likely that the first stage of the rocket (likely a Long march family rocket) did failed somewhere in mid-flight?

Nope, the orbital launch that carried out two days later as planned suggests the test on Aug 7 is a success, because there is no large difference between the 1st stages of the two LVs used (CZ-2C & CZ-4C). If the CZ-2C failed on Aug 7, the CZ fleet would be ground to clarify the problem. That would be long (just imagine how the GF-2 was delayed).

The 'crash', I presume, is a normal ground impact of the separated 1st stage. The engines shut down normally with some residual toxic fuel in tank - only few kilos of such can create a horrible scene like this.

1st stage failure was never seen among the seldom failures of CZ fleet LVs in the past decade.

However, it also confused me why the NOTAM zones did not cover, at least, the impact zone of the 1st stage.
« Last Edit: 08/11/2014 01:18 PM by Nighthawk »

Offline input~2

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Re: Chinese sub-orbital launches
« Reply #139 on: 08/19/2014 03:57 PM »
2 interesting NOTAMs
Quote
A1409/14 -  THE FLW SEGMENTS OF ATS RTE CLSD: 1.B215: N4027.9E09724.1-NUKTI. 2.G470: BIKNO-DUNHUANG VOR'DNH'. FL000 - FL999, 20 AUG 03:40 2014 UNTIL 20 AUG 04:40 2014. CREATED: 19 AUG 14:57 2014
Quote
A1408/14 -  THE FLW SEGMENTS OF ATS RTE CLSD: 1.Y3: TUSLI-DUMIN. 2.W112: ADMUX-TUSLI. 3.L888:TONAX-LEBAK. 4.Y1:MAGOD-N3507.6E10005.6. FL000 - FL999, 20 AUG 02:00 2014 UNTIL 20 AUG 02:50 2014. CREATED: 19 AUG 14:48 2014

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