Proton IV in 2012

[Sur2900]

ILS reports Phase Proton IV ready in 2012 with 6.3 Metric ton capacity.

http://www.ilslaunch.com/world-space-risk-forum-2010-recap

[Danderman]

OK, so what is a "Phase IV" Proton? Does it use warp drive?

[Cog_in_the_machine]

"The fundamentals of the program are increased reliability, producibility and increased performance. Phase IV meets all of those requirements and relies on an extension of existing technologies in avionics, and high strength materials and investment in high accuracy tooling ."

Nothing in it about propulsion. Sounds like manufacturing changes only.

[DiggyCoxwell]

   Does the Russian space agency have enough money
available to develop both the Angara and the Proton IV?

[sammie]

I doubt that RSA is putting a single penny in Proton IV. Seems like the changes are paid for and organized by Krunichev. The RSA hasn't got any payloads that heavy other then maybe MRM. This upgrade is purely driven by the need of commercial costumers. With Zenit-3SL capable of similar heavy payloads out of the game, Proton can nicely fill that gap.

But as indicated before this is more of a mid life upgrade and production will just continue in line. You can't demand a phase 3 Proton M once production has successfully switched to the new standard.

Now, anyone want to make a guess a Proton M with a RD-0146U upper stage would do? 

[Stan Black]

A little confused by this...
http://www.ilslaunch.com/assets/pdf/PMPG%20Section%20B.pdf

The Proton development program has now successfully completed the development, production and launch of the first flight articles of the Proton M and Breeze M, the Phase I-enhanced Proton M/Breeze M, the Phase II-enhanced Proton M/Breeze M, and most of the upgrades for the Phase III-enhanced Proton M/Breeze M.

As of July 2009. So what used the phase I, the phase II and why only most of phase III?

Phase III can lift 6.15 to GTO.
http://www.ilslaunch.com/assets/pdf/Sat-Finance-Dec-2009.pdf
So phase IV can do 6.3 - that's quite a bit more.

Might also be of interest:-
http://www.onera.fr/eucass/2005/Proceedings/4.02.01.pdf
http://www.mscsoftware.com/events/vpd2007/emea/presentations/EMEA_VPD2007_Khrunichev-eng_R_2007_12_14.pdf

[fregate]

Ok. Let's do some calculations:
1. LV Proton M launches a satellite into parking orbit with an altitude of 182.5 km and an inclination of 51.6 degrees. 
An ideal delta V required to transfer the satellite to a GEO orbit using Hohmann transfer with a combined plane change at apogee
Ideal Delta V for GEO mission = 4,889 m/sec.   
Ideal Delta V for GTO mission = 3,389 m/sec.   

2. Assuming that mass of cryogenic space tug is equal to the mass of Briz-M space tug (22,170 kg) and the same Propellant factor as 12KRB space tug ( Propellant factor is a ratio of usable propellant mass to the fully fueled tug mass), which is 12,600/15,100=0.8344

3. Engine mass (by CADB)
RD-0146     242 kg
RD-0146D ~300 kg

Proton-M payload capability (with gravity losses) for GTO/GEO missions with cryogenic space tug:
Image link

As you could see with a minor structural improvements of cryogenic space tug, Proton-M would be capable to deliver 13.2 metric tonnes for GTO and 6 metric tonnes for GEO missions.
Please welcome a Russian Centaur  

[zaitcev]

2. Assuming that mass of cryogenic space tug is equal to the mass of Briz-M space tug (22,170 kg) and the same Propellant factor as 12KRB space tug ( Propellant factor is a ratio of usable propellant mass to the fully fueled tug mass), which is 12,600/15,100=0.8344
. . .
Please welcome a Russian Centaur  

This is exactly what confuses me. It's not like they (Khrunichev) cannot do it. They already did! They already have the whole stage - not just the engine, but structures and avionics - already flown on GSLV. How hard can it be to put it on top of Proton? Yet they do not seem to be working on it. What is the hold-up? Pad upgrades at Baikonur? Political interference from Angara? What?

-- Pete

[sammie]

Well, to say that the whole stage is ready for entry into service is a bit of an over statement. There is I think quite a bit of development left to be done, and it all has to be tested, all of which will cost quite a bit of money. The RSA has no need to put 13 tonnes in GTO, so they sure won't pay for it. ILS to has no real need for such a capability as well. I doubt they can start launching two big satellites due to space constraints in the fairing, even if there is a demand for it (which I doubt). ILS seems content with the current situation in the launch market and is more focused on quality improvement and not investing too much money. 

So there is no real market, nor is there anybody that willing to invest that kind of money. So instead they try to milk as much cash out of an already operating system.

[PDJennings]

This is exactly what confuses me. It's not like they (Khrunichev) cannot do it. They already did! They already have the whole stage - not just the engine, but structures and avionics - already flown on GSLV. How hard can it be to put it on top of Proton? Yet they do not seem to be working on it. What is the hold-up? Pad upgrades at Baikonur? Political interference from Angara? What?

-- Pete

Don't forget the significant outlays required for all-new payload fairing design, space head integration fixturing, transporter, and service tower modifications (on up to three pads).  A cryogenic stage a la KVRB would be a great deal longer than the compact Breeze-M, and the fairing required for that plus dual payloads and a Russki Sylda would be much longer than the current 15255 fairing.  And that is for a 4-m class fairing diameter.  If you want it to be a 5-m fairing to match the competition, then all the above expenses will be much higher.  By the way, don't forget to dock your performance estimate by a ton or so for the heavier fairing and the payload carrier.  The Ariane 5 ES version ended up heavier than was originally advertised, and the Khrunichev fairings are not as lightweight.

I am sure the current ILS business is profitable, but it does not have the margins to justify that kind of capital expenditure.  Incremental mods such as the Phase IV are justified.  You *might* see a second processing area for satellites, but that's pretty expensive all by itself.

[edkyle99]

Please welcome a Russian Centaur  

This is exactly what confuses me. It's not like they (Khrunichev) cannot do it. They already did! They already have the whole stage - not just the engine, but structures and avionics - already flown on GSLV. How hard can it be to put it on top of Proton? Yet they do not seem to be working on it. What is the hold-up? Pad upgrades at Baikonur? Political interference from Angara? What?

-- Pete

What is holding them up is that Proton is such a capable launch vehicle "as-is".  Why shift to a more complex, costly cryogenic stage when an all-storable hypergolic rocket can lift 6.3 tonnes to GTO, from a high-inclination launch site no less!

Also recall that the cryogenic oxidizer DM stages that used to fly on Proton had a stubborn failure rate that the non-cryogenic hypergolic Briz M stage has a chance to better (though it has had its troubles).   The last 15 Proton M/Briz M launches have gone off without a hitch.  Could Khrunichev fly 15 LH2 stages in a row without failure?

 - Ed Kyle

[fregate]

2. Assuming that mass of cryogenic space tug is equal to the mass of Briz-M space tug (22,170 kg) and the same Propellant factor as 12KRB space tug ( Propellant factor is a ratio of usable propellant mass to the fully fueled tug mass), which is 12,600/15,100=0.8344
. . .
Please welcome a Russian Centaur  

This is exactly what confuses me. It's not like they (Khrunichev) cannot do it. They already did! They already have the whole stage - not just the engine, but structures and avionics - already flown on GSLV. How hard can it be to put it on top of Proton? Yet they do not seem to be working on it. What is the hold-up? Pad upgrades at Baikonur? Political interference from Angara? What?

-- Pete

Apart of integration issues (how to fit 12KRB into Proton-M LV), 12KRB BTW has 12,600 kg of usable propellant only
and quite old-fashioned cryogenic engine.
That translates to the following capacity: 
GTO payload 8,435 kg
GSO paylod  3,771 kg
Not worth it!
     

[Stan Black]

A little confused by this...
http://www.ilslaunch.com/assets/pdf/PMPG%20Section%20B.pdf

The Proton development program has now successfully completed the development, production and launch of the first flight articles of the Proton M and Breeze M, the Phase I-enhanced Proton M/Breeze M, the Phase II-enhanced Proton M/Breeze M, and most of the upgrades for the Phase III-enhanced Proton M/Breeze M.

As of July 2009. So what used the phase I, the phase II and why only most of phase III?

Phase III can lift 6.15 to GTO.
http://www.ilslaunch.com/assets/pdf/Sat-Finance-Dec-2009.pdf
So phase IV can do 6.3 - that's quite a bit more.

http://www.ilslaunch.com/news-032010

The EchoStar XIV... the first commercial flight of the enhanced Phase III Proton.

[VR2]

The EchoStar XIV... the first commercial flight of the enhanced Phase III Proton.

... this year?

I think, that all the Protons 935xx series are of the enhanced Phase III.

[Stan Black]

The EchoStar XIV... the first commercial flight of the enhanced Phase III Proton.

... this year?

I think, that all the Protons 935xx series are of the enhanced Phase III.

Possibly the Proton is... but what about the white launch fairing?