DIRECT v3.0 - Thread 3

[Lampyridae]

To start this thread off in a rather unusual way, I'm going to reveal a little bit of news.   We are all in a holding-pattern waiting to see what comes out of the Bolden study, so this has actually allowed us to examine some off-shoot opportunities which have come along recently.

I can't reveal many details, but following this 4 year volunteer effort, the DIRECT Team is currently beginning to form a new team -- a new Commercial Team.

Some existing members and some new ones will, in the new year, be forming a new Corporation intending to create and produce commercial space products.

We already have a source for major investment to support us with substantial seed money and operating capital.

At this time we are investigating the extremely wide range of products which we could possibly produce.   There are a lot of possibilities and while launch vehicles are an obvious direction for us to consider, we are keeping all of our options open.

So I guess I'll leave that there and turn this over for discussion.   Let the speculation begin!!

LOL

Ross.

PS -- Don't expect to hear much about this until some time in the new year.   "DIRECT" remains our primary focus right now, and when the Bolden study comes out we expect to be busy on this for a while so the commercial operation will go on a back-burner again.

One door closes, another opens.

I think I recall saying something like this to you guys, a couple of years back.

If I was the CEO of a major aerospace corporation, I would have hired your group immediately. Having the sheer bottle to do what you people did is pure gold in a company team. However, the timing is impeccable, and I can see the masterful strokes now. Not only is SDLV no longer an option, you guys have repeatedly shown up certain elements within NASA. When the time comes to decide things and hand out moneys, people will remember that NASA* couldn't organise a "drinking binge" in a brewery. Bad news, but it may force a sea change. The money just won't be there for big government programs. The US just cannot compete with nationalistic space programs like China's. The real power and innovation is with private industries and competitions, such as Orbital, Ad Astra, SpaceX etc.

Best wishes to you and yours, mate. Well done.

[Lampyridae]

I keep repeating: This is not true. For the capabilities it provides and cosidering its flight rate, Shuttle is a bargain.

Analyst

The Shuttle is an amazing piece of kit, I agree. Unfortunately it is just too much money spent on "mission to planet Earth" instead of elsewhere.

[gospacex]

My guess: it is someone with much $$$ and a will to join the NewSpace fray (say, Google?) + team which produced DIRECT proposal realized that together they have enough $$$, talent and skills to actually be successful in nascent NewSpace; especially since it is likely NASA HSF has eliminated itself.

It is not likely the'd try to build DIRECT LV, however - DIRECT is a good idea only if you start with Shuttle infrastructure in hand, i.e., if you are NASA.

[gospacex]

People tend to go from one extreme to another: From Moon, Mars and beyond to doom and gloom, e.g. the end of HSF. I warned years ago there is a hard wall coming, the funding won't be there for all the dreams, the technological problems are too big.

The problems do not seem to be technological to me. They are purely organizational.

[Bill White]

@ Ben the Space Brit

EML space station made up of ATV- and Transhab-derived modules.

A human tended EML-1 station, not a human occupied station. Having folks just sit there sucking up radiation would be criminal.

But also, add a reusable lunar lander.

Getting there would be "relatively" cheap if you use Soyuz + Proton Block D. Or if SpaceX can match Soyuz pricing.

Go commercial AND international at the same time.

[Analyst]

I keep repeating: This is not true. For the capabilities it provides and cosidering its flight rate, Shuttle is a bargain.

Analyst

The Shuttle is an amazing piece of kit, I agree. Unfortunately it is just too much money spent on "mission to planet Earth" instead of elsewhere.

Then wait how much money will be spent for any expendable LEO replacement and keep in mind all these expendable replacement options have much less capabilities than the Shuttle has. You will realize, it is a bargain.

Analyst

PS to others: Please dump the speculation in the "speculation" thread.

[Downix]

A new direction to take the thread, perhaps:

Let's think of a totally new idea from a clean sheet of paper.  Let's call it DIRECT 4.0 or 'DIRECT Salvage'.  This assumes that the worst case scenario comes to pass: CxP is canned, all 8.4m tank production capabilities are lost and America seems condemned to flying an 'Orion-super-lite' off of an EELV for at least the next ten years.

In this scenario, what can be salvaged from the mess? The five-seg program is making some progress and Ares-I-X' may fly irrespective of CxP's fate.  J-2X may be salvagable and there is a lot of 5.5m tooling for the Ares-I upper stage in the final stages of being developed.  We have two operational 20-25t launchers in the EELVs as well as two commercial 10t LVs in the Falcon-9 and Taurus-2 that may also be availble in the next 5 years or so.

What is the best thing that we can throw together using the bits left after the Constellation Debacle essentially kills US HSF exploration for a decade?

Some suggestions:

* Delta-IVK - Hybrid Delta-IVH with Atlas-V CCBs as outriggers & ACES upper stage;
* Delta-IVS - Five-core Delta-IV;
* Developing a 5.5m kerolox core that can launch with the help of 'stumpy' 3-seg segmented SRMs (the DoD might be keen to co-operate as it would keep military monolithic SRM costs down);
* Continuing AIUS development as an 'exploration propulsion stage' for launch on Delta-IV or Atlas-V;
* Use of ATK-derived hab/lab as flyby/orbital rendezvous transhab for deep space missions along with exploration-rigged Orion-SL;
* EML space station made up of ATV- and Transhab-derived modules.

"Ares-I salvage and EELV-derived! This isn't DIRECT!" some may cry.  I would disagree.  The philosophy of DIRECT is an optimum-performance for shortest lead-time/development cost HSF exploration archetecture.  If SDLV becomes impossible for any reason, then I would argue that an alternate plan using what is available should be developed as a fall-back.  For instance, I saw some interesting proposals amongst all the Augustine verbage of a multi-launch archetecture using exclusively the current EELVs (plus a 'crew launcher' that they obviously intended to be Ares-I, but we won't go there).  Of course, there is no reason why Ariane-5 and Soyuz cannot also be used to launch tonnage to LEO.  How far could the current designs and capabilities, both extant and imminent, be pushed to get them going?

That's what I've come up with off the top of my head.  However, I'm very much a casual layperson.  By all means let the experts pitch in.

Well, they will be selling off the 8.4 tank technology I would assume.  If I were pondering commercial options, buying up military surplus is one course I would follow.

Now, a smart team would look at what components are available off the shelf first.  Engines which are commercial out there, does anyone have a list?

[dnavas]

It's not too late.   Very, very close.   But the agency can still salvage something if they are smart -- and fast -- enough.

But I wouldn't hold your breath.   Recent history does not bode well for the agency making smart decisions.

A curious pair of statements.  My chief frustration has been with speed, rather than intelligence.  It has never been my experience that the optimal strategy is ever chosen from a lineup, but the only times I've ever seen it take a year and a half has been in government-run organizations.

However, you have a more informed opinion than I do, so I'm curious as to why *smart* was chosen over *fast*.  From your followup posts it appears that a path may have already been chosen -- ask for more money and pray.  It is not an atypical position.  From my perspective, the issue is that the response to that position will take at least four months, and probably more, to deliver.  ?

-Dave

[Pheogh]

Hey all, Please head over to directlauncher when you get a chance and checkout the Augustine options demo I put together (top news item). I would love to get your feedback to help refine the demo. I am not considering changing the format to much but I would really love to nail down the various metrics more solidly. The piece is not intended to be so much a pro-direct piece as much as a quick overview for those who don't have the time or attention to read the full report.

I will definitely consider incorporating any metric which have solid evidential backup.

Have at it and please be constructive.

[kraisee]

It's not too late.   Very, very close.   But the agency can still salvage something if they are smart -- and fast -- enough.

But I wouldn't hold your breath.   Recent history does not bode well for the agency making smart decisions.

A curious pair of statements.  My chief frustration has been with speed, rather than intelligence.  It has never been my experience that the optimal strategy is ever chosen from a lineup, but the only times I've ever seen it take a year and a half has been in government-run organizations.

However, you have a more informed opinion than I do, so I'm curious as to why *smart* was chosen over *fast*.  From your followup posts it appears that a path may have already been chosen -- ask for more money and pray.  It is not an atypical position.  From my perspective, the issue is that the response to that position will take at least four months, and probably more, to deliver.  ?

Dave, I like the way you summarized that so accurately:   "ask for more money and pray".   That really is what they're trying to do.

But budget is the ENTIRE argument right now.   BUDGET IS EVERYTHING.

If the choice comes down to Commercial vs. Ares-V, Commercial will win every time.   Game Over for ATK and MSFC.

Only SDLV can compete with Commercial head-to-head.   Done right, SDLV is actually lower cost.

But if they continue to refuse to support SDLV and keep clinging to Ares-V "come hell or high water", they better learn to swim pretty fast because Ares-V can not win this fight.

If they delay switching their support to SDLV for much longer, within 4-6 months from now it will simply no longer be on the table as a "safety net" option.   The infrastructure and staff will already be largely gone, and at that point the cost to bring that infrastructure back again will make Commercial the lower cost option once again.

Right now SDLV is lower cost than Commercial.   6 months from now, it won't be.


MSFC and ATK are about to get themselves blindsided by a masterful group within the Administration who have simply been standing by letting them hang themselves with their own rope (Ares-V's high costs).   They still don't see it coming.

Ross.

[robertross]

Hey all, Please head over to directlauncher when you get a chance and checkout the Augustine options demo I put together (top news item). I would love to get your feedback to help refine the demo. I am not considering changing the format to much but I would really love to nail down the various metrics more solidly. The piece is not intended to be so much a pro-direct piece as much as a quick overview for those who don't have the time or attention to read the full report.

I will definitely consider incorporating any metric which have solid evidential backup.

Have at it and please be constructive.

THAT was a FANTASTIC graphic. GREAT job!

Of course personnaly I would have liked to see the problem with ISS downmass addressed in the 'red-hatched' GAP area...but I know that could clutter things, and is supposed to be COTS anyways.

[kraisee]

"They Still Don't See It Coming"

Let me put it another way...

[Downix]

Hey all, Please head over to directlauncher when you get a chance and checkout the Augustine options demo I put together (top news item). I would love to get your feedback to help refine the demo. I am not considering changing the format to much but I would really love to nail down the various metrics more solidly. The piece is not intended to be so much a pro-direct piece as much as a quick overview for those who don't have the time or attention to read the full report.

I will definitely consider incorporating any metric which have solid evidential backup.

Have at it and please be constructive.

THAT was a FANTASTIC graphic. GREAT job!

Of course personnaly I would have liked to see the problem with ISS downmass addressed in the 'red-hatched' GAP area...but I know that could clutter things, and is supposed to be COTS anyways.

I like 5D the most...

Posted to my Facebook

[William Barton]

It's not too late.   Very, very close.   But the agency can still salvage something if they are smart -- and fast -- enough.

But I wouldn't hold your breath.   Recent history does not bode well for the agency making smart decisions.

A curious pair of statements.  My chief frustration has been with speed, rather than intelligence.  It has never been my experience that the optimal strategy is ever chosen from a lineup, but the only times I've ever seen it take a year and a half has been in government-run organizations.

However, you have a more informed opinion than I do, so I'm curious as to why *smart* was chosen over *fast*.  From your followup posts it appears that a path may have already been chosen -- ask for more money and pray.  It is not an atypical position.  From my perspective, the issue is that the response to that position will take at least four months, and probably more, to deliver.  ?

Dave, I like the way you summarized that so accurately:   "ask for more money and pray".   That really is what they're trying to do.

But budget is the ENTIRE argument right now.   BUDGET IS EVERYTHING.

If the choice comes down to Commercial vs. Ares-V, Commercial will win every time.   Game Over for ATK and MSFC.

Only SDLV can compete with Commercial head-to-head.   Done right, SDLV is actually lower cost.

But if they continue to refuse to support SDLV and keep clinging to Ares-V "come hell or high water", they better learn to swim pretty fast because Ares-V can not win this fight.

If they delay switching their support to SDLV for much longer, within 4-6 months from now it will simply no longer be on the table as a "safety net" option.   The infrastructure and staff will already be largely gone, and at that point the cost to bring that infrastructure back again will make Commercial the lower cost option once again.

Right now SDLV is lower cost than Commercial.   6 months from now, it won't be.


MSFC and ATK are about to get themselves blindsided by a masterful group within the Administration who have simply been standing by letting them hang themselves with their own rope (Ares-V's high costs).   They still don't see it coming.

Ross.

Does the masterful group within the Administration have its own space exploration ideas, or is it's goal simply to disembowel VSE?

[HIP2BSQRE]

It's not too late.   Very, very close.   But the agency can still salvage something if they are smart -- and fast -- enough.

But I wouldn't hold your breath.   Recent history does not bode well for the agency making smart decisions.

A curious pair of statements.  My chief frustration has been with speed, rather than intelligence.  It has never been my experience that the optimal strategy is ever chosen from a lineup, but the only times I've ever seen it take a year and a half has been in government-run organizations.

However, you have a more informed opinion than I do, so I'm curious as to why *smart* was chosen over *fast*.  From your followup posts it appears that a path may have already been chosen -- ask for more money and pray.  It is not an atypical position.  From my perspective, the issue is that the response to that position will take at least four months, and probably more, to deliver.  ?

Dave, I like the way you summarized that so accurately:   "ask for more money and pray".   That really is what they're trying to do.

But budget is the ENTIRE argument right now.   BUDGET IS EVERYTHING.

If the choice comes down to Commercial vs. Ares-V, Commercial will win every time.   Game Over for ATK and MSFC.

Only SDLV can compete with Commercial head-to-head.   Done right, SDLV is actually lower cost.

But if they continue to refuse to support SDLV and keep clinging to Ares-V "come hell or high water", they better learn to swim pretty fast because Ares-V can not win this fight.

If they delay switching their support to SDLV for much longer, within 4-6 months from now it will simply no longer be on the table as a "safety net" option.   The infrastructure and staff will already be largely gone, and at that point the cost to bring that infrastructure back again will make Commercial the lower cost option once again.

Right now SDLV is lower cost than Commercial.   6 months from now, it won't be.


MSFC and ATK are about to get themselves blindsided by a masterful group within the Administration who have simply been standing by letting them hang themselves with their own rope (Ares-V's high costs).   They still don't see it coming.

Ross.

Instead of being all gloom and doom...which you may be right in 4 months time, why dont we change things?  Being right and seeing the MSC and ATK kicked in the teeth at the cost of thousands of job in April --is not my idea of a good job or the holiday spirit.  If I see a car going over the cliff, do i cheer from the sidelines.  After the fact, when it has gone over the cliff--are you willing to say so sad to bad, I told you so.  Who wins then?  The only losers are the American public.