Author Topic: Year Long Expeditions To ISS  (Read 40720 times)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #20 on: 09/05/2012 05:04 PM »
As mentioned before, there would need to be a good reason for a year long mission. You have to remember, an astronaut costs a lot of money to train etc, so it is prudent to keep them in the best possible health. A year long mission presents some considerable health challenges.
But those health challenges are something that needs to be overcome.

Public links can be copied from L2.

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_08_22/Russia-US-to-free-spacecraft-seats-for-tourists-in-2015/

I see that's already on the public thread, and answers the question.


I'd like to hear what erioladastra has to say about this before I get excited

Well I have not heard of it being seriously discussed but will have to poke around.  I know a big issue is that the flight docs don't yet feel we could get enough out of it and 1-2 data points doesn't help. 
And zero data points is better? 1-2 data points helps immensely when you're comparing it to only extrapolating from an entirely different regime. I'd prefer the hazards of smallish sample size over the hazards of large extrapolations. Unless, of course, we just never go, in which case let's just shut the whole thing down right now.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline erioladastra

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #21 on: 09/06/2012 12:26 AM »
And zero data points is better? 1-2 data points helps immensely when you're comparing it to only extrapolating from an entirely different regime. I'd prefer the hazards of smallish sample size over the hazards of large extrapolations. Unless, of course, we just never go, in which case let's just shut the whole thing down right now.

Not neccessarily.   First there are costs/impacts to do this though mainly to family and the long duration crewman.  Second, I don't sense the flight docs feel we fully understand some of the changes we have seen so far.  Just for example, the changes in eyes.  Is there a risk that if we put someone up for a year that they could come back with serious permanent eye damage?  So you don't want to go long before you are sure.  You also need to make sure you really, really understand how 6 months affect you.  Once you are there you can start going longer.  If you make major changes to the protocols you lose a lot of your baseline.  You could put through something very hard and then find your data is useless.  Now once enough confidence is gained (and I am not a doctor, I just hear the complaints of lack of statistics) I think there will be a stronger push for them.  We will see - I am not advocating against them.

Now, also, before people pile on, the Mir long duration flights are virtually useless in this regard so we really don't have any useable data.

Offline robertross

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #22 on: 09/06/2012 01:30 AM »
I think a great benefit is using previous ISS astronauts.

1. They are familiar with the systems, so training is less arduous

2. There is baseline information on them right from the beginning of astronaut training, to their mission, to post mission, and (hopefully) many follow-on medical exams post flight.

3. Since they've already had their feet wet, they can jump right into getting things done on station.

4. It might help for spacewalks, especially if, like Peggy Whitson, they've already had considerable time outside.

Of course some minor difficulty exists if there are experiments that require specific pre-flight training, but I guess they will have a crew change-out in between that can handle those experiments, allowing these candidates to focus on the long-duration tests.
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Offline erioladastra

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #23 on: 09/13/2012 01:13 AM »
I think a great benefit is using previous ISS astronauts.

1. They are familiar with the systems, so training is less arduous

2. There is baseline information on them right from the beginning of astronaut training, to their mission, to post mission, and (hopefully) many follow-on medical exams post flight.

3. Since they've already had their feet wet, they can jump right into getting things done on station.

4. It might help for spacewalks, especially if, like Peggy Whitson, they've already had considerable time outside.

Of course some minor difficulty exists if there are experiments that require specific pre-flight training, but I guess they will have a crew change-out in between that can handle those experiments, allowing these candidates to focus on the long-duration tests.

I think you misunderstood my statement.  By changing baseline I meant the following.  Lets say for Crew X on Increment 10 you had them take phosphate to reduce clacium loss.  You now decide to fly that person on incrment 40 for a year but we had since found out that phosphate isn't good (don't know, making up stuff) and now they drink Mt Dew.  So now you can't compre that individual to their earlier time.  And lets say you are still trying to figure you what is best for a year long.  Crew Y goes up and you have tweaked it to Dr. Pepper.  Can you comapre those two?  You have two data points with different histories so if the Pepper does better or worse, what you can learn?

But agree at some point you need some data.  I just know the docs are still not on board.  However, it does appear that it is gaining traction with some deals and may be heading towards reality.

Very likely anyone on orbit for a year would not do EVAs unless an emergency since someone who has had the training mroe recently would do it.

Will be inetresting to see where it goes. Could be interesting for Peggy.

Offline DarkenedOne

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #24 on: 09/16/2012 09:40 PM »
I think you misunderstood my statement.  By changing baseline I meant the following.  Lets say for Crew X on Increment 10 you had them take phosphate to reduce clacium loss.  You now decide to fly that person on incrment 40 for a year but we had since found out that phosphate isn't good (don't know, making up stuff) and now they drink Mt Dew.  So now you can't compre that individual to their earlier time.  And lets say you are still trying to figure you what is best for a year long.  Crew Y goes up and you have tweaked it to Dr. Pepper.  Can you comapre those two?  You have two data points with different histories so if the Pepper does better or worse, what you can learn?

But agree at some point you need some data.  I just know the docs are still not on board.  However, it does appear that it is gaining traction with some deals and may be heading towards reality.

Very likely anyone on orbit for a year would not do EVAs unless an emergency since someone who has had the training mroe recently would do it.

Will be inetresting to see where it goes. Could be interesting for Peggy.

First of all, I would like to point out that the risks involved in this operation are trivial compared to previous operations like Apollo.  The astronauts can be continuously monitored and tested to ensure no permanent damage is done.  If they are in danger of serious injury they can simply return home early.  The biggest risk in my opinion is some yet undiscovered effect of micro-gravity on the human body.  Astronauts on Apollo missions on the other hand did not have such an easy way out if things went wrong.

Second of all, the risk adversity of NASA is one of the reasons many people think NASA is just a shadow of its former self.  We have a $100 billion dollar space station at our disposal, and guess what I have not heard of any plans to replace it.  We better make use of it right now as much as possible.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #25 on: 09/16/2012 09:56 PM »
The astronauts can be continuously monitored and tested to ensure no permanent damage is done.

We certainly all wish this to be true, but don't you think it might be difficult for them to test for dangers of which they are unaware?
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Offline erioladastra

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #26 on: 09/17/2012 01:10 AM »
I think you misunderstood my statement.  By changing baseline I meant the following.  Lets say for Crew X on Increment 10 you had them take phosphate to reduce clacium loss.  You now decide to fly that person on incrment 40 for a year but we had since found out that phosphate isn't good (don't know, making up stuff) and now they drink Mt Dew.  So now you can't compre that individual to their earlier time.  And lets say you are still trying to figure you what is best for a year long.  Crew Y goes up and you have tweaked it to Dr. Pepper.  Can you comapre those two?  You have two data points with different histories so if the Pepper does better or worse, what you can learn?

But agree at some point you need some data.  I just know the docs are still not on board.  However, it does appear that it is gaining traction with some deals and may be heading towards reality.

Very likely anyone on orbit for a year would not do EVAs unless an emergency since someone who has had the training mroe recently would do it.

Will be inetresting to see where it goes. Could be interesting for Peggy.

First of all, I would like to point out that the risks involved in this operation are trivial compared to previous operations like Apollo.  The astronauts can be continuously monitored and tested to ensure no permanent damage is done.  If they are in danger of serious injury they can simply return home early.  The biggest risk in my opinion is some yet undiscovered effect of micro-gravity on the human body.  Astronauts on Apollo missions on the other hand did not have such an easy way out if things went wrong.

Second of all, the risk adversity of NASA is one of the reasons many people think NASA is just a shadow of its former self.  We have a $100 billion dollar space station at our disposal, and guess what I have not heard of any plans to replace it.  We better make use of it right now as much as possible.

On your first point - I never said otherwise.  But even then your statement is not correct.  For example, search this forum and you will see a good discussion of eye problems, which may be permanent, that were not neccessarily apparent on orbit.  Do these eye problems get worse over a year - we don't know what is causing it so can't say.

Second, while I would generally agree NASA is risk adverse, more a reflection on the political state of our country than what most people at NASA desire, this is not the point here.  The question should be - can we lern something useful and is it safe.  Lets let the experts (mainly the flight docs) worry about that; just because you think so does not make it so.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #27 on: 09/19/2012 02:39 PM »
Spaceflight isn't safe, end of story. But launch and reentry are both more hazardous than the rest of the time spent in space combined, probably even for long-duration missions. Thus, total per-astronaut safety over a year of on-orbit time is probably /increased/ by having a year-long mission versus two 6-month missions. Is this taken into account by the flight surgeons?
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Offline STS109

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #28 on: 09/19/2012 03:56 PM »
I think there is  alot to learn for a year long mission but wait to see the mission someone has to train for that will make them stay in orbit for as long as it takes to get to Mars then land on earth without help, set up camp, survive and then launch again. Someone will have to do this before we ever get to Mars.

Offline erioladastra

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #29 on: 09/20/2012 01:15 AM »
Spaceflight isn't safe, end of story. But launch and reentry are both more hazardous than the rest of the time spent in space combined, probably even for long-duration missions. Thus, total per-astronaut safety over a year of on-orbit time is probably /increased/ by having a year-long mission versus two 6-month missions. Is this taken into account by the flight surgeons?

Unfortunately that is two different things but I see what you are trying to compare.  One is direct health and you can measure that and make some estimates.  Of course it is very hard to say you return alive but with some permanent problem.The launch/entry issue is purely one of probability.  But you can weigh both of course.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #30 on: 09/20/2012 01:45 AM »
I think there is  alot to learn for a year long mission but wait to see the mission someone has to train for that will make them stay in orbit for as long as it takes to get to Mars then land on earth without help, set up camp, survive and then launch again. Someone will have to do this before we ever get to Mars.

The delta-v requirements of launching from Earth are completely different, as are the landing and "set up camp" operations.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline JimO

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #31 on: 09/21/2012 03:12 PM »
Padalka had some VERY critical remarks about a 12-month mission at the post-flight presser yesterday:


Космонавт: Российский сегмент на МКС морально устарел
20 сентября 2012, 15:47 //  http://www.vz.ru/news/2012/9/20/599034.html
[wrong photo of ‘Padalka’]
Российский сегмент Международной космической станции морально устарел и недостаточно комфортен, поэтому об увеличении срока пребывания космонавтов на МКС говорить рано, считает космонавт Геннадий Падалка.


Геннадий Падалка — российский космос замер в прошлом веке
20 Сентября - 22:22
На проходившей в четверг пресс-конференции, российский космонавт Геннадий Падалка заявил, что космическая отрасль в нашей стране — находится на уровне технологий восьмидесятых годов двадцатого века.



20.09.2012
 http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/weltall/roskosmos-kosmonaut-kritisiert-russische-raumfahrt-a-857057.html
"Kein Fortschritt" Kosmonaut kritisiert russische Raumfahrt

Spiegel does not have an English translation of this article, alas.

And here's another link:

Космонавт Падалка: к годовому полету отношусь отрицательно
20 сентября 2012, 22:51
http://www.polit.ru/news/2012/09/20/space_padalka_usl/


« Last Edit: 09/21/2012 05:41 PM by JimO »

Offline veblen

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #32 on: 09/21/2012 04:13 PM »
Padalka had some VERY critical remarks about a 12-month mission at the post-flight presser yesterday:


Космонавт: Российский сегмент на МКС морально устарел
20 сентября 2012, 15:47 //  http://www.vz.ru/news/2012/9/20/599034.html
[wrong photo of ‘Padalka’]
Российский сегмент Международной космической станции морально устарел и недостаточно комфортен, поэтому об увеличении срока пребывания космонавтов на МКС говорить рано, считает космонавт Геннадий Падалка.


Геннадий Падалка — российский космос замер в прошлом веке
20 Сентября - 22:22
На проходившей в четверг пресс-конференции, российский космонавт Геннадий Падалка заявил, что космическая отрасль в нашей стране — находится на уровне технологий восьмидесятых годов двадцатого века.



20.09.2012
 http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/weltall/roskosmos-kosmonaut-kritisiert-russische-raumfahrt-a-857057.html
"Kein Fortschritt" Kosmonaut kritisiert russische Raumfahrt


From the first link. 4th paragraph, Padalka bashes current Russian aerospace. Russian space achievements are Soviet achievements. No improvements last 20 years.

It is amusing reading Russian publications: everything that is wrong, or goes wrong there, according to the powerful & influential, is not the fault of government, but the fault of Russian companies, and in terms of this thread, Russian aerospace companies. Capitalist system sucks. Lets go back to Soviet system Padalka seems to be saying.

And cosmonauts would be happy to participate in long duration ISS missions, as long as they get to inhabit American section. So where would the astronauts be on ISS then? Well, maybe on terra firma because Popovkin says long duration space missions is Soviet, oops, sorry, Russian expertise area of expertise.

lol (cynical snicker)


Offline manboy

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #33 on: 09/21/2012 05:58 PM »
Padalka had some VERY critical remarks about a 12-month mission at the post-flight presser yesterday:


Космонавт: Российский сегмент на МКС морально устарел
20 сентября 2012, 15:47 //  http://www.vz.ru/news/2012/9/20/599034.html
[wrong photo of ‘Padalka’]
Российский сегмент Международной космической станции морально устарел и недостаточно комфортен, поэтому об увеличении срока пребывания космонавтов на МКС говорить рано, считает космонавт Геннадий Падалка.
I ran part of the article through google translate and somewhat cleaned up the grammar.
Quote
According to him, Russian astronauts on the ISS have to work and live in spartan-like conditions, because life is only suitable in the service module "Zvezda", since the other modules are cold and noisy.

"I have a negative attitude (to extend expeditions), because to do so, you first need to create comfortable living conditions for the crew. Especially in the Russian segment", said Padalka to reporters, referring to the increase in the duration of missions during the post-flight press conference.

"Every Russian cosmonaut has seven times less living space than an astronaut", said the cosmonaut.

He said that foreign orbital counterparts, each module is designed for specific tasks, such as sleep, recreation or exercising.

"And we have a service module of all: a toilet, food, science, fitness equipment and cabins", added Padalka.

According to an earlier report from the newspaper ВЗГЛЯД, the head of Roscosmos, Vladimir Popovkin told reporters that the time the astronauts and cosmonauts spend on the ISS is planned to be extended to twice as much - from six months to one year.

According to him, the lengthening of the astronauts stay will reduce the load on the manned vehicles.

Popovkin also said that he consulted with flight doctors, who said that there is no fundamental difference between the effects on the health of the astronaut flight lasting six, nine months or one year.

"What's the difference between a six-month, nine-month or annual flight - a different cycle of the astronaut to land: Strenuous exercise, more time in the Chibis device. We all took place at Mir. We have a system of rehabilitation. We know how to rehabilitate astronauts", said the head of Roscosmos.

Much more acute problem of longer flights and subsequent rehabilitation of astronauts facing American and European partners, Popovkin said, "They have no experience in long-duration spaceflight and rehabilitation of people after them. We are ready to put all that we know on the subject, to help change the rehabilitation period. These issues are now being worked out. We are just at the beginning."
« Last Edit: 09/21/2012 06:01 PM by manboy »
"Cheese has been sent into space before. But the same cheese has never been sent into space twice." - StephenB

Offline aquarius

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #34 on: 09/22/2012 05:36 PM »
From his comments we can deduce that Padalka doesn't intend to fly in space again.

Online Olaf

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Offline strangequark

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #36 on: 10/02/2012 10:09 PM »
The decision was made.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_10_02_2012_p0-502389.xml

Quote
The two-person expedition - with crew members from Roscosmos and NASA - will be a first test, the result of which will determine whether all flights are extended to a year, he said.

“The fundamental decision has been made, only the formalities remain to be negotiated. So far, we are talking about a single mission,” Krasnov told RIA news agency.

“If it proves effective, we will be able to discuss with partner countries a permanent transition from half-year flights to year-long flights.”


Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #37 on: 10/02/2012 10:14 PM »
The decision was made.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_10_02_2012_p0-502389.xml
...even talking about making the expeditions last a full year...

I for one will be happy to just have one single American last one year in orbit, with full medical monitoring and using the very best in countermeasures. This is needed for missions to Mars. Sure, we could do it other ways, but if we can do it without artificial gravity, it'd be far easier and cheaper in the long-run. 1.5 year-long missions would be long enough for a reasonable short-duration Mars mission. 2.5 year-long mission for long-duration (lower delta-v).


Having longer missions on ISS will also give us some better ideas about long-duration lunar and Martian missions.

It also makes more NEA targets feasible.

This combined with the Gateway makes real BEO exploration eminently feasible. All the tools will be in place.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline erioladastra

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Offline Go4TLI

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Re: Year Long Expeditions To ISS
« Reply #39 on: 10/03/2012 01:11 AM »
The decision was made.
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_10_02_2012_p0-502389.xml

Quote
The two-person expedition - with crew members from Roscosmos and NASA - will be a first test, the result of which will determine whether all flights are extended to a year, he said.

“The fundamental decision has been made, only the formalities remain to be negotiated. So far, we are talking about a single mission,” Krasnov told RIA news agency.

“If it proves effective, we will be able to discuss with partner countries a permanent transition from half-year flights to year-long flights.”


Oops.  Well up goes the price of commercial crew, less of a reason for any real astronaut corp and just a continuation of dominance of Russian crews for a station primarily funded by the United States. 

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