Author Topic: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011  (Read 267776 times)

Offline Nickolai

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 309
  • Liked: 13
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #540 on: 11/10/2011 12:06 AM »
And oh boy, do we have some good active members here. This thread wouldn't be as good as it is without JimO and others. I only wish the Russians would also post here, even with bad English!

Hey! I take pride in my english! Haha, just kidding (born in Russia, living in US since '93)

Also, what is the deal with that bear and YeTMS? What is it?

Online Lee Jay

  • Elite Veteran
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5775
  • Liked: 188
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #541 on: 11/10/2011 12:07 AM »
I'm making a point about that as less than 1 percent of our actual forum members are L2 members, which is very poor considering how good L2 is.

And how cheap it is - less than 25 cents a day.  A tiny (ridiculously tiny) price to pay to keep such a great site running, and also to have access to L2 for which the term "good" doesn't seem like nearly enough.

Offline Chris Bergin

  • NSF Managing Editor
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 98565
  • Liked: 8153
Thanks guys. I didn't mean to derail about L2 - more to do with NK being down. So anyway....

It's almost certain that whatever they have found about the yesterday's failure, there won't be a press release tonight. Looks like we will have to wait until tomorrow morning. It's disappointing. I go to bed, see you tomorrow.

Thanks for keeping an eye on things. Looking rather grim, but let's keep the faith and see what tomorrow brings!

Offline Cbased

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 277
  • Liked: 1
  • Melbourne, Australia
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #543 on: 11/10/2011 12:51 AM »
I only wish the Russians would also post here, even with bad English!
There are quite a few Russians on this forum. I even recognise the same nicks from the NK forum. They are doing good job in terms of covering Russian missions. The problem we are facing now is there is almost zero official news. Yes, I know, the engineers are busy. But the press services could have done a better job.
One thing that I love about this forum/community is no matter which country's mission we talk about there is a general sense of support and genuine interest. People actually DO wish the best. Well done everyone. This mission is far from being over yet.

Offline robertross

  • Canadian Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17286
  • Liked: 268
  • Westphal, Nova Scotia
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #544 on: 11/10/2011 12:52 AM »
And oh boy, do we have some good active members here. This thread wouldn't be as good as it is without JimO and others. I only wish the Russians would also post here, even with bad English!

Also, what is the deal with that bear and YeTMS? What is it?

From the movie 'Red Planet' with Val Kilmer. Russian science probe the landed on Mars and never fulfilled its mission. It was the interface display when Val was looking to use it (probe) to go home, but it had a failure (low battery power).

I thought it was a good movie.

Moving on...I really hope they can get this sorted. And yes, this has been a great thread so far, with lots of input from new (and seasoned) members
I love L2
Go SpaceX!

Online Blackstar

  • Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8264
  • Liked: 608
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #545 on: 11/10/2011 01:46 AM »
Also, what is the deal with that bear and YeTMS? What is it?

From the movie 'Red Planet' with Val Kilmer. Russian science probe the landed on Mars and never fulfilled its mission. It was the interface display when Val was looking to use it (probe) to go home, but it had a failure (low battery power).

I thought it was a good movie.

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1473/1

« Last Edit: 11/10/2011 01:46 AM by Blackstar »

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8602
  • Liked: 151
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #546 on: 11/10/2011 02:38 AM »
I am very surprised by all this reporting of attempts to command a new firing of the Fregat engine - it is well known that Fregat does not have uplink capability.

Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2717
  • Liked: 104
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #547 on: 11/10/2011 02:43 AM »
I am very surprised by all this reporting of attempts to command a new firing of the Fregat engine - it is well known that Fregat does not have uplink capability.
The MDU is not an off the shelf Fregat, it's part of the spacecraft and has to be programmable because it also performs the MOI burn.

Meanwhile, from twitter
https://twitter.com/AstroRND
Quote
They recieved the telemetry from probe at 11-12 p.m. yesterday. (moscow time). It's all I can get now.

As far as I can tell he's legit, but... caveat twitter ;)

Offline i2000s

  • Member
  • Posts: 22
  • Liked: 0
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #548 on: 11/10/2011 03:14 AM »
I am very surprised by all this reporting of attempts to command a new firing of the Fregat engine - it is well known that Fregat does not have uplink capability.
The MDU is not an off the shelf Fregat, it's part of the spacecraft and has to be programmable because it also performs the MOI burn.

Meanwhile, from twitter
https://twitter.com/AstroRND
Quote
They recieved the telemetry from probe at 11-12 p.m. yesterday. (moscow time). It's all I can get now.

As far as I can tell he's legit, but... caveat twitter ;)


"I suppose they will try to restart propulsions todays evening. If it is soft problems of course"
Russia 1 (TV channel): analysis of the data recieved from Phobos-Grunt is in progress.

This news is better than none. :)

Offline Andy USA

  • Lead Moderator
  • Administrator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 856
  • Liked: 16
  • Los Angeles, California
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #549 on: 11/10/2011 03:32 AM »
Remember when posting links to sites, only link original source material, not other sites who aren't using original content. Has to be new updates here.

Offline Cbased

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 277
  • Liked: 1
  • Melbourne, Australia
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #550 on: 11/10/2011 04:00 AM »
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=626044&tid=94354

Once the SC become visible for the control centre, they've managed to download telemetry information.
They are currently performing analysis of the data.

Still considering 2 possibilities:
1. Star sensor/orientation system failure
2. Software bug

30 sec video (in Russian)
http://www.vesti.ru/only_video.html?vid=375409

At the very end of this news bulletin they say there are 2 days left (limitation based on the remaining battery charge)
« Last Edit: 11/10/2011 04:09 AM by Cbased »

Offline Mikha

  • Member
  • Posts: 2
  • Liked: 0
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #551 on: 11/10/2011 04:05 AM »
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=626044&tid=94354

They've managed to download telemetry information.
They are currently performing analysis of these data.
It also says that 2 days is the limit to solve the problem, the time (as the article says) is limited by the remaining charge of the onboard accumulators.

(I personally don't think that this information is very reliable, which means it could be both true or false)

Offline Nickolai

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 309
  • Liked: 13
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #552 on: 11/10/2011 04:08 AM »
I also noticed it listed 2 days until the battery runs out, which again contradicts Roscosmos' official statement from earlier today that controllers have 2 weeks to figure out the problem.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2011 04:18 AM by ntrgc89 »

Offline alk3997

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 336
  • Liked: 9
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #553 on: 11/10/2011 04:45 AM »
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=626044&tid=94354

Once the SC become visible for the control centre, they've managed to download telemetry information.
They are currently performing analysis of the data.

Still considering 2 possibilities:
1. Star sensor/orientation system failure
2. Software bug

30 sec video (in Russian)
http://www.vesti.ru/only_video.html?vid=375409

At the very end of this news bulletin they say there are 2 days left (limitation based on the remaining battery charge)


Makes sense...it's either a hardware problem that can be bypassed with software or it's a problem caused by software.  If it isn't one of those two categories, then it becomes an even more difficult (or impossible) problem.

Non-specific to Fobos-Grunt, but for past spacecraft who are stuck in low Earth orbit, the biggest immediate problem has been getting power to the spacecraft.  Batteries are usually sized for short mission durations since the solar arrays should provide primary power.  The batteries are for the night part of the orbit (Earth and Mars) as well as contingency operations such as the solar arrays fail to deploy the first time.  Batteries are heavy, so most manufacturers don't want to put more batteries than is needed for the mission (plus some fudge).  Two days would make some sense.  Of course, if you're stuck in low Earth orbit, your biggest problem is propulsion, but that goes without saying.

As was said in a previous post, arrays are usually not deployed until the burns are done because many arrays can't withstand the force of the burn as well as changing the cg when deployed.  It's usually considered "poor form" to leave the solar arrays behind with the spacecraft on its way to the final destination.

Finally, on the comment about the lack of news, the engineers/technicians working this are scrambling and are fighting against the clock.  Having been in that situation, you really want to devote your brain cells towards the problem rather than providing status reports to the outside - who can't really help with the problem.

So I suspect we won't know a true cause until the spacecraft is either on its way to Mars or has died in low Earth orbit.  BTW, as Jim O has reported, if the spacecraft dies, then the heaters keeping the hydrazine from freezing probably won't work anymore (unless they are radioisotope-driven).  That would probably be some spectacular re-entry but I hope it doesn't come to that.

Andy
« Last Edit: 11/10/2011 04:49 AM by alk3997 »

Offline Cbased

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 277
  • Liked: 1
  • Melbourne, Australia
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #554 on: 11/10/2011 05:10 AM »
Apparently (according to Vesti) there were 2 communication sessions already - late evening 9th and on the 10th of Nov at night. 2 consecutive orbits I presume?

http://www.ria.ru/science/20111110/485317739.html

Offline Svetoslav

  • Veteran
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 579
  • Liked: 10
  • Bulgaria
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #555 on: 11/10/2011 05:55 AM »
http://www.interfax.ru/politics/txt.asp?id=216123

Interfax reports that Phobos-Grunt isn't accepting commands. They say that they can downlink telemetry, but they can't send commands...

The spacecraft is in low earth orbit, the solar batteries aren't working yet and the antenna hasn't been deployed... this is what I understand. You can check the link if you want, with Google translate (for English-speaking fans)
Svetoslav Alexandrov, B.Sc. in Molecular Biology, M.Sc. in Plant Physiology - a passionate space enthusiast

Offline Chris-A

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 535
  • Liked: 0
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #556 on: 11/10/2011 06:07 AM »
Looking very grim.  :(

Offline yaroslav

  • Member
  • Posts: 62
  • Liked: 0
  • Kyiv, Ukraine
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #557 on: 11/10/2011 06:08 AM »
Thanks everyone for the updates, I was talking with a friend and we are hoping that soon controllers will be able to see something like this: http://imageshack.us/f/831/thumbsupec.jpg/  :)

Thinking about Mars

:-\
« Last Edit: 11/10/2011 06:55 AM by yaroslav »

Offline Cbased

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 277
  • Liked: 1
  • Melbourne, Australia
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #558 on: 11/10/2011 06:20 AM »
http://www.interfax.ru/politics/txt.asp?id=216123

Interfax reports that Phobos-Grunt isn't accepting commands. They say that they can downlink telemetry, but they can't send commands...

The spacecraft is in low earth orbit, the solar batteries aren't working yet and the antenna hasn't been deployed... this is what I understand. You can check the link if you want, with Google translate (for English-speaking fans)

You have to be careful with the translation.
The first paragraph is correct. The article says that there was a one way communication - SC sending telemetry to the ground station. Then they say that in order to establish a 2-way communication and uplink the commands they need to be on the interim orbit (slower angular velocity and longer visibility periods). (To be honest - I am not sure if this is actually true - yes, the elongated orbit will increase visibility windows but regardless you should be able to control the SC on the low orbit too)

Edit: understood. Visibility period (min) * 8kbit/sec bandwidth = limited volume of data that can be transferred within the comms window.

The second paragraph (that batteries are not working, antennae are closed etc) - these are just assumptions/thoughts of one of the experts (Uvarov). This is not official in any way.

If they won't be able to reestablish control of the SC and it stays on its current orbit then the reentry will occur in 5 to 10 days.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2011 08:41 AM by Cbased »

Offline yaroslav

  • Member
  • Posts: 62
  • Liked: 0
  • Kyiv, Ukraine
Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #559 on: 11/10/2011 06:57 AM »
Looks like the main problem is to upload data to FG

Also I can't see any real info concerning FG orientation to Sun
« Last Edit: 11/10/2011 07:01 AM by yaroslav »

Tags: