Author Topic: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011  (Read 427018 times)

Offline Rocket Guy

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #920 on: 11/13/2011 01:31 AM »
That is quite obviously an object in the foreground that it goes behind, being that you can see it in the video.

Offline i2000s

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #921 on: 11/13/2011 01:38 AM »

Look @ the upload time. It could be true. A Fake, just to baffle you, would have been uploaded later. The title of a youtube video can be changed any time.

And i know of a guy in Rio who had linked a livestream on http://www.satview.org to watch for fobos-grunt.
Let's say it's real, what does it show ? I see a point of light going in and out of focus, and then fades out around 3:00, which would be consistent with no burn taking place, and PG eventually going into eclipse. Or being eclipsed by something local such as a telephone pole, but to me it fades out a bit slow for that. He picks something up at the end but that looks like a light to me.

Looking at the maps here: http://phobos.cosmos.ru/index.php?id=312&L=2 this appears consistent with expectation for an observer in Sao Palo, although of course without any reference points, we can't say.
I though it is this: before 3:01, the engine is burning; after 3:01, the engine is turned off?

Offline hop

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #922 on: 11/13/2011 02:13 AM »
I though it is this: before 3:01, the engine is burning; after 3:01, the engine is turned off?
If it had burned for several minutes, it wouldn't have stayed in the same orbit as the Zenit stage.

That is quite obviously an object in the foreground that it goes behind, being that you can see it in the video.
You're right, cranking the brightness up on my monitor it's quite obvious.

Offline Andy USA

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #923 on: 11/13/2011 04:07 AM »
Just so everyone is aware, as much as it's obvious. Any posts which are not worthy of this thread should be reported. Anyone who posts a complaint that some posts are not up to the usual quality standards of NSF is creating twice the problem.

Chris will be starting a new thread specific to the continued troubleshooting on Sunday, which will also allow for the new thread to condense and copy over the  key information which will take is forward, without people having to look through 62 pages on this thread, which will only be locked, it will still be readable.

Offline Prober

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #924 on: 11/13/2011 04:50 AM »
Difference in opinion in our friend JimO and Russian officials

That about summarizes it, except to add the nuance that we need more information about structural elements to calculate with any reliability the rtemperature evolution of each of the >24 tanks on the vehicle.

Also, I should point out the LAST time my assessment differed from official Russian assessments of a failed Mars probe, in 1996.

The Russians, and the Clinton White House on FEMA advice, advertised that the Mars-96 probe and its hazardous plutonium batteries had fallen safely into the deep Pacific and no further safety measures were needed.

My own orbital analysis suggested an entry significantly east of that point, over the Chile-Bolivia border. This was subsequently supported by eyewitness accounts from Chile, including one from an employee of the Cerro Tololo observatory, of a fireball swarm crossing the coast at precisely the time of the probe's overflight. NORAD checked its IR trackers and released a  statement describing entry along a strip that straddled the coastline [the press release came out at 5 PM on the friday after Thanksgiving -- ever wonder why?]. A NORAD spokesman later agreed that the eyewitness accounts "probably" were of the probe headed inland.

But from Moscow, no warnings to locals, no searches for debris, nothing. And Russian official websites still list the 'safe splash in Pacific' story. Although Lavochkin's site apparently has been scrubbed of ALL reference to the probe that they built.

So yes, on occasion, my views do differ from those of Russian space officials.




Thanks Jim over the years I have learned to trust your expertise and judgment.  Russia’s approach seems to be cavalier and the lack of information and concern just reinforces my perception…

Regards
Robert


Jim is gaining new respect with alot of readers.  Just don't stop the truth.
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #925 on: 11/13/2011 07:30 AM »
Novosti-Kosmonavtiki (forum) reports that the apogee of the orbit has been raised from 311 to 349 kms... This leads some people think that the spacecraft is actually being commanded, and it's not a side-effect like venting
« Last Edit: 11/13/2011 07:36 AM by Svetoslav »

Offline geza

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #926 on: 11/13/2011 07:40 AM »
Do you mean intentionally commanded from Earth? Or just that the computer of unknown state does command some maneuver by unknown reason?

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #927 on: 11/13/2011 07:40 AM »
No. Nothing mentioned.. Just pure speculation.

Offline input~2

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #928 on: 11/13/2011 08:11 AM »
Novosti-Kosmonavtiki (forum) reports that the apogee of the orbit has been raised from 311 to 349 kms... This leads some people think that the spacecraft is actually being commanded, and it's not a side-effect like venting
Well, sticking to the elsets epochs, I don't see any apogee raise:

epoch                      apogee (km)    perigee (km)
13/11/2011 01:57        335.3        207.8
13/11/2011 00:27        335.7        207.5
12/11/2011 19:58        336.3        207.7
12/11/2011 09:28        337.5        207.1

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #929 on: 11/13/2011 12:51 PM »
Or are they comparing the apogees (okay what is the correct plural here) of the spent second stage and Phobos-Grunt?

Since the spent stage is empty and less dense, it's apogee is dropping much faster than the fully loaded, dense, venting Phobos-Grunt.
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Offline input~2

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #930 on: 11/13/2011 02:07 PM »
Apogee/perigee chart with latest data at this time

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #931 on: 11/13/2011 02:12 PM »
The question I want answered by interplanetary navigators isn't when the generic window to Mars closes -- we already know that -- but when the inexorably planar shift [~6 degrees per day] of the Phobos-Grunt parking orbit takes the vehicle too far out of plane to reach the required departure asymptote for the trans-Mars insertion burn, even with a plane change maneuver wrapped into the escape velocity maneuvers.

If that time hasn't already passed, and the Russian Space Agency just isn't telling us.

The deliberate Roskosmos policy of silence on all of these issues is very bad preparation for them expecting to be trusted during future assertions about the hazards of the craft's random fall back to Earth, assuming any recovery -- or deliberate deorbit, which may be the last remaining hope -- becomes possible.


Offline input~2

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #932 on: 11/13/2011 02:32 PM »
the inexorably planar shift [~6 degrees per day] of the Phobos-Grunt parking orbit
Indeed, it has already veered 24 degrees since early Nov 9...

Offline swervin

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #933 on: 11/13/2011 02:43 PM »
Novosti-Kosmonavtiki (forum) reports that the apogee of the orbit has been raised from 311 to 349 kms... This leads some people think that the spacecraft is actually being commanded, and it's not a side-effect like venting

Svetoslav, keep us posted with what the Russian language news services are saying!! Thanks man.

Nick

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #934 on: 11/13/2011 02:53 PM »
http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/content/news.shtml

The Russian interplanetary probe Phobos-Grunt is able to correct its orbit using its own engines, says Igor Lisov, an editor of Novosti Kosmonavtika.

A source from the space industry has informed RIA Novosti that during the last three days the height of the apogei has been lowered to 6.5 kilometers, while the height of the perigee (which had to lower too), had risen to a kilometer due to unknown reason.

The observed data is best explained bu the fact the probe keeps its own orientation due to periodic activation of the engine. This is not something that's commanded from Earth - Phobos-Grunt lives its own life. But it cannot talk.

Offline DFSL

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #935 on: 11/13/2011 03:14 PM »
I just registered to say I respectfully disagree with the view that Mr. Oberg is a truthful and unbiased "analyst". The articles I read from him online (Certainly not in this forum) are redacted in a way that makes me think there is a small amount of bad faith going on about the soviet and later russian programs in his conclusions. I'm talking about weasel words and hawkish recommendations on how to deal with the dissolute russians, that probably reflects more than their than evident problems. They are not neutral and I suspect a ideological bias rooted in the Cold War era, tainting MR. Oberg's analysis.

Cheers from Argentina, people. I'm sure this post will get "moderated" (Erased, redacted) in no time, but let me say you all are my prime source about space projects and particularly launch vehicles. Keep the good work.

Offline lbiderman

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #936 on: 11/13/2011 03:45 PM »
I just registered to say I respectfully disagree with the view that Mr. Oberg is a truthful and unbiased "analyst". The articles I read from him online (Certainly not in this forum) are redacted in a way that makes me think there is a small amount of bad faith going on about the soviet and later russian programs in his conclusions. I'm talking about weasel words and hawkish recommendations on how to deal with the dissolute russians, that probably reflects more than their than evident problems. They are not neutral and I suspect a ideological bias rooted in the Cold War era, tainting MR. Oberg's analysis.

Cheers from Argentina, people. I'm sure this post will get "moderated" (Erased, redacted) in no time, but let me say you all are my prime source about space projects and particularly launch vehicles. Keep the good work.

Hello compatriot! I'll write this in English since is the language here. Let me say I don't see the bias you mention. But even if there was any, Roskosmos isn't doing anything to prove him wrong. The amount of organizational failures involve in this situation is unbelievable. I don't expect a live tweet from mission control, but at least something official. The command and control for this mission was disastrous, and the fact that the probe isn't prepared to talk to mission control in this phase (of course, this from rumors presented in this thread) is almost hilarious. It is not about money, let me stress that: both the CONAE and INVAP, which I imagine know very well, function with a very thigh budget, but every mission they plan has a excellent project. It might fail, no one is immune to that, but they take their time to try to cover all the bases. Here it seems that Roskosmos simply depended on a lucky break, and is very difficult to get one of those in this business if you leave to many things to chance.
"If I wanted to lead a bunch of robots that could only follow orders, I would have joined the Army!"
Captain Alvarez (Uruguay Marine Corps) in Congo (MONUC Deployment), March 2007

Offline simonbp

DFSL, I suggest you read back a few pages about Mars '96. The Russians then covered the landing point to avoid any liability for damage (to your fellow South Americans). Phobos-Grunt is potentially a much more damaging spacecraft, and its orbit crosses just about every population center on the planet. It is therefore in the interest of everybody, worldwide, to know exactly what the probably is that this thing will strike Earth and where. JimO can be a bit hyperbolic (most dangerous satellite EVAR!!!1!!!), if it raises awareness, it's worth it.

There are still Cold War mindsets out there, but in this case (IMHO) they are chiefly coming from Russian space official desperate to cover up any failure. Were it not for the Internet (and therefore Russians talking unofficially), would we even know that there'd been a failure? (In the bad old days, Russia would have just given the spacecraft a Kosmos number and claim it was supposed to be a LEO mission all along.)

Offline input~2

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #938 on: 11/13/2011 04:23 PM »
Using the 3 elsets published thus far for to-day and SatEvo with a 10.7cm mean solar radio flux of 160 (taken from NWRA forecast), re-entry could occur between 3 and 13 January 2012

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #939 on: 11/13/2011 04:26 PM »

A source from the space industry has informed RIA Novosti that during the last three days the height of the apogei has been lowered to 6.5 kilometers, while the height of the perigee (which had to lower too), had risen to a kilometer due to unknown reason.


Simone Corbellini has plotted the apogee and perigee heights at http://digilander.libero.it/SATrack/Phobos.html?q=phobos (about a third of the way down the page).  I assume the data comes from Space Track, i.e., the US space surveillance system.

Edit: On the apogee, Corbellini's plot shows only minor fluctuations about the time the perigee increased. So I'd say the apogee has mostly decreased due to drag.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2011 04:31 PM by ChileVerde »
"I can’t tell you which asteroid, but there will be one in 2025," Bolden asserted.

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