Author Topic: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011  (Read 413272 times)

Offline Silmfeanor

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #460 on: 11/09/2011 01:15 PM »
Jim, I see the AP has heavily quoted you.
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-scientists-try-save-mars-moon-probe-082920979.html

Also in an earlier version of this BBC article:
Quote
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15631472
- but it has now been updated / removed.

I hope we'll see a Russian scientist in this role, though.
Agreed, of course. No time for Putin jokes yet though; first let's hope they can get this bird on it's way...
« Last Edit: 11/09/2011 01:16 PM by Silmfeanor »

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #461 on: 11/09/2011 01:19 PM »
Any confirmation of solar array deploy from a secondary source? Hopefully that could buy us more time.
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Offline plutogno

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #462 on: 11/09/2011 01:31 PM »
drawings show the solar panels deployed during burns but are they really designed to be so?
usually satellites do not deploy solar panels and other flexible appendages that can perturb their attitude before such maneuvers

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #463 on: 11/09/2011 01:43 PM »
drawings show the solar panels deployed during burns but are they really designed to be so?
usually satellites do not deploy solar panels and other flexible appendages that can perturb their attitude before such maneuvers

This thing is built like a tanků Perhaps JimO could comment :)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15631472
« Last Edit: 11/09/2011 01:44 PM by Rocket Science »
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #464 on: 11/09/2011 01:49 PM »
No time for Putin jokes yet though; first let's hope they can get this bird on it's way...

I suspect Putin is not in a joking mood, hopefully they can salvage this mission or I fear he might show how unfunny he thinks this is. Fingers crossed for the workers.
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Offline Jim

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #465 on: 11/09/2011 01:52 PM »

This thing is built like a tanků Perhaps JimO could comment :)


What in that photo determines that it is a tank and that the solar arrays can be deployed during burns?
« Last Edit: 11/09/2011 01:52 PM by Jim »

Offline ugordan

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #466 on: 11/09/2011 01:53 PM »
drawings show the solar panels deployed during burns but are they really designed to be so?
usually satellites do not deploy solar panels and other flexible appendages that can perturb their attitude before such maneuvers

Since the same propulsion system performs MOI, if it can handle the Gs when the whole stack is lighter, it should by definition be able to handle TMI with arrays unfolded and with heavier mass.

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Latest news: http://www.interfax.ru/politics/news.asp?id=216042

Quote
Roscosmos specialists will attempt to save Phobos-Grunt tonight

November 9, 2011, 17:40

Moscow, November 9. INTERFAX.RU - Speciatists of Roscosmos will attempt to eject Phobos-Grunt spacecraft to a Mars-bound trajectory during the night of Wednesday and Thursday's morning, told a source in the rocket&space industry to Interfax AVN.

According to him, at 23:00 Moscow time (19:00 UTC) Phobos-Grunt will pass within visibility range of the primary measurement and command centre in Baikonur. At this time, specialists will collect telemetry information from the spacecraft, that will allow them to determine the exact cause of the issue.

After analyzing the information, measures will be taken to address the problem, if it is found solvable. If possible, manoeuveres to boost into the intermediate orbit and then to escape trajectory will also be performed.

The source highlighted that Phobos-Grunt will appear in range of Russian tracking stations earlier, about 21:30 MSK (17:30 UTC), but only Baikonur station is capable of gathering the full set of telemetry information and, what's most important, to issue the command to perform the manoeuvres.

"Having the issues with the present orbit's height and electric supply of equipment, we have to perform boosting as soon as possible. But undue hurry is not desirable, as well. One error now may cost us the whole mission" - he remarked.
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Wow, thanks for the translation on the above. This will be a great mission save if they pull it off!

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #469 on: 11/09/2011 02:04 PM »
Greetings for me again!

A poster on Novosti-Kosmonavtiki puts a list of times when Phobos-Grunt will be visible from different control centers:

http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=831515#831515
« Last Edit: 11/09/2011 02:11 PM by Svetoslav »

Offline plutogno

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #470 on: 11/09/2011 02:06 PM »
Since the same propulsion system performs MOI, if it can handle the Gs when the whole stack is lighter, it should by definition be able to handle TMI with arrays unfolded and with heavier mass.

that's probably true.
note however that I am not talking about a problem of gees and acceleration (a relatively simple static problem), but a problem of array vibrational frequencies, damping and attitude control response (a complex dynamical problem).

Offline yamato

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #471 on: 11/09/2011 02:08 PM »
if they succeed in igniting the propulsion unit, where should it happen? Directly over russia, or somewhere else? (europe O:))

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #472 on: 11/09/2011 02:12 PM »
I fixed the link above. I sinserely apologize that I put a wrong one.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #473 on: 11/09/2011 02:19 PM »
Jeez, another mission in jeopardy for the Russians. I hope they can save this one. 
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Offline Archibald

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #474 on: 11/09/2011 02:22 PM »
To me that bad start confirms fears expressed before the mission - that the russians did not solved issues that cost them so many Mars probes in the past. Read - overcomplication (Phobos); the damn parking orbit (Mars 96) computer glitches (Mars 69 /71 / 73).
I fear that, even if they managed to save Phobos Grunt from its actual dire situation, the probe might fail without a warning only days before reaching Mars...
Not that I wish that mission any bad !

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #475 on: 11/09/2011 02:31 PM »
Archibald - excuse me, but you are wrong. You can't compare apple with ranges. The Mars 73 probes failed due to faulty transistors - they could have saved the mission if they had delayed it to 1975. Phobos-Grunt failed during tests in 2009 and the Russian specialists requested a two-year delay.

Mars 96 failure was due to lack of funding - even the assembly of the rocket took place under the illumination of gas lanterns - the taxes for electroenergy weren't paid.

Phobos failures were indeed due to software glitches.

The only thing that is worthy to be criticized is overcomplication.

As for Phobos-Grunt - it was already explained that this is one of the predicted anomalies and the specialists already have a working plan... This is a huge improvement. We have a spacecraft in a stable preliminary orbit- and specialists have their time to analyze the situation and to find out what went wrong.

Offline plutogno

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #476 on: 11/09/2011 02:50 PM »
Archibald - excuse me, but you are wrong. You can't compare apple with ranges.

I agree 100% with you.
However, the Russians were extremely naive on this one, and have not evidently learned the lesson of Nozomi and CONTOUR: NEVER (and I mean NEVER!) plan a  burn or maneuver or other critical maneuvers out of contact with the ground. I know that the fleet of telemetry ships has long been dismantled, but they could easily have asked for some satellite station in South America to track F-G and record its telemetry, instead of having to wait tens of hours to have a status snapshot!

Offline BrunoQuiocca

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #477 on: 11/09/2011 03:06 PM »
...they could easily have asked for some satellite station in South America to track F-G and record its telemetry, instead of having to wait tens of hours to have a status snapshot!

Here is a interesting story.
I have a friend who is a journalist, and told her last week about this event. She got interested about the launch and made a few calls for the "competent" national agencies, since she wanted to write about it on the news.
The most important agency here in Brazil is the INPE (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, or National Institute of Space Researches). So obviously she called them to get info. The answer on friday was: "We can't confirm anything, since the russian government did not warned us about it."
They were talking as if they simply didn't know anything.

Then on monday she called again. This time they knew about it, but said that it would not be possible to see without a telescope (!!!).

All in all, they don't even know when they're hungry. Try to picture these morons tracking a rocket.

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #478 on: 11/09/2011 03:19 PM »
A poster on Novosti-Kosmonavtiki puts a list of times when Phobos-Grunt will be visible from different control centers:

http://www.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=831515#831515 

Great info.

and note quote: "The source highlighted that Phobos-Grunt will appear in range of Russian tracking stations earlier, about 21:30 MSK (17:30 UTC), but only Baikonur station is capable of gathering the full set of telemetry information and, what's most important, to issue the command to perform the manoeuvres."

which reveals only a SINGLE ground site can perform the required comm.
« Last Edit: 11/09/2011 03:23 PM by JimO »

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #479 on: 11/09/2011 03:22 PM »
Looking ahead, and assuming they get a successful trans-Mars insertion, my next big concern is the operation of the Fregat stage for Mars Orbit Insertion after an eleven month cold cruise. NASA probes have been badly bit by problems caused by using hypergolic engines after such an exposure to flight conditions. Since [for the first time?] the same engine is being used both for Earth departure and Mars arrival [Mars-96 apparently intended to do the same -- did Phobos-1 and -2?] , I am deeply concerned over the state of its engine valves when the probe finally [we hope] gets to Mars.


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