Author Topic: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011  (Read 413879 times)

Offline mr.columbus

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #40 on: 05/30/2009 11:28 AM »
The Chinese are still reporting that their Yinghuo 1 Mars probe is scheduled to be launched with Fobos-Grunt in October this year.

Well, just two days ago Zhang Weiqiang of SAST also insisted that the launch was still on for the second half of this year.

http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?a=jf2s4pcbdad&title=China_to_launch_first_Mars_probe_later_this_year

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #41 on: 06/26/2009 04:45 PM »
Last month, Lavochkin officials singled out "June 17" as the make-or-break delivery date of components of Fobos-Grunt.

A full week has gone by now, and I've seen no news whatsoever about this milestone being accomplished.

So what can we deduce from this silence?


Online V.V.

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #42 on: 06/26/2009 06:04 PM »
According to NPOL sources, the Chinese subsat is delivered in time to Russia.

Offline patchfree

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #43 on: 06/27/2009 09:08 PM »
Anatoly ZAK met G Polyschuck and had a clear info about the status of Phobos-Grunt.

See: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/phobos_grunt_preflight.html#lebourget

Online 2552

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #44 on: 08/21/2009 09:19 AM »
After the sample has been sent on its way back to Earth, the lander will continue studying the surface of Phobos. Since Phobos has almost no gravity, would it be possible for the lander to take off again, and land at a different location on Phobos to study the surface in detail from multiple locations?

Offline EE Scott

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #45 on: 08/21/2009 10:51 AM »
Anatoly ZAK met G Polyschuck and had a clear info about the status of Phobos-Grunt.

See: http://www.russianspaceweb.com/phobos_grunt_preflight.html#lebourget

According to the page above, they are still testing major elements of this spacecraft (e.g., Aug 12, testing of the landing radar).  Wow, that is a very tight schedule they have going there.  I guess if they find problems in their testing of duplicate hardware, they would put the launch off until 2011.
Scott

Offline Liss

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #46 on: 08/30/2009 10:16 AM »
Other news from the MAKS-2009 air show in Zhukovskiy give the following picture:

http://www.ruvr.ru/main.php?lng=rus&q=125875&cid=437&p=18.08.2009&pn=1

Quote
Запуск космического аппарата "Фобос-грунт" к спутнику Марса может состояться в начале ноября. Об этом сообщил на авиационно-космическом салоне МАКС-2009 в подмосковном Жуковском генеральный конструктор и гендиректор НПО имени Лавочкина Георгий Полищук. Работы идут по графику. Сейчас проходят испытания бортовой аппаратуры.

Launch may be made in the beginning of November. Onboard devices are being tested now.

http://www.roscosmos.ru/NewsDoSele.asp?NEWSID=7155

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Все работы по «Фобос-Грунт» мы планируем завершить к 20 сентября. Сейчас идут комплексные испытания. Если все пройдет успешно, то должны запустить аппарат до начала ноября. Если нет, то старт придется отложить на два года, когда в расположении планет вновь появится наиболее благоприятная ситуация для запуска. Поэтому сейчас мы предпринимаем все, чтобы работы завершить в этом году...

Integrated testing being made now, should be finished by September 20. If successful, launch would occur by the beginning of November. Otherwise, we'd be delayed by two years.

http://www.zhukvesti.ru/articles/detail/2042/

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По словам Г.Полищука, сдача АМС «Фобос-Грунт» государственной комиссии намечена на 20 сентября нынешнего года. Если она пройдет успешно, запуск состоится в первых числах ноября. Если комиссия даст отрицательное заключение, то АМС будет отправлена на доработку, а запуск перенесен на два года.

September 20 is the date for the final decision on Fobos-Grunt from the State Commission. If positive, launch would be made in the first days of November. Otherwise, a two-year delay would follow.

Well, speaking of Russian mentality and rules of Russian bureaucracy, if a boss admits publicly a possibility of delay, it should be considered very seriously. It's also clear that Polishchuk relates the final decision to higher authorities. So we'll see in three weeks what would follow.
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline madscientist197

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #47 on: 08/31/2009 08:59 AM »
Hopefully it is delayed. Otherwise I fear it will be a repeat of their prior successes.
John

Offline simon-th

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #48 on: 08/31/2009 09:16 AM »
Hopefully it is delayed. Otherwise I fear it will be a repeat of their prior successes.

Delays don't mean missions have higher success probabilities. Actually, history tells us it's the other way around.

Offline madscientist197

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #49 on: 08/31/2009 11:36 AM »
There's quite a history of overambitious Russian Mars missions with too little testing resulting in a mission failure. Maybe this one is different. Are you sure you're thinking of the Russian programme?
« Last Edit: 08/31/2009 11:37 AM by madscientist197 »
John

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #50 on: 08/31/2009 01:07 PM »
The addition of the Chinese subsatellite, and this year's bragging about the mission from toip Russian leaders, may have placed intolerable pressures on the launch decision. But don't despair -- even a reduced mission, such as the Chinese probe and the Phobos lander lab, without sample return, would be an amazingly impressive mission.

Regarding the references to Mars-96, and how it dropped its plutonium packets on Bolivia -- are there any nuclear materials on F-G?


Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #51 on: 09/14/2009 09:30 PM »
Crunch time for Russia Mars probe
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8254820.stm
By Anatoly Zak , Science Reporter

Zak says a delay until 2011 is being recommended.

Offline spacex

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Online Satori

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #53 on: 09/16/2009 09:17 PM »
Novosti Kosmonavtiki is reporting that the decision that was taken on the September 16th meeting is that the mission will be delayed to 2011.

Online 2552

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #54 on: 09/19/2009 10:29 AM »
Damn.

Offline pm1823

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #55 on: 09/19/2009 02:09 PM »
No, it is Good!

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #56 on: 09/19/2009 02:12 PM »
Roscosmos still hasn't announced an official delay, though.
« Last Edit: 09/19/2009 02:13 PM by Svetoslav »

Offline Nickolai

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #57 on: 09/21/2009 08:24 PM »
http://lenta.ru/news/2009/09/21/phobos/

This article states quotes Lev Zelenyi (director of Institute for Space Studies) as saying that the decision was taken by Roscosmos to delay the mission.

Reasons were given as "increasing reliability of the mission, lowering risk, and guaranteeing success," although the decision was still very difficult to make.

At the end of the article they mention the rumors that began circulating about delays most recently, saying these were related to fears that the control system would not withstand the lengthy flight.

Offline Liss

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #58 on: 09/29/2009 12:47 PM »
Today Roscosmos confirmed the delay, sort of.
In today's Rossiyskaya Gazeta, head of Roscosmos Anatoliy Perminov spoke about it as of old news.
He told that the delay was requested by the Bureau of Space Souncil of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
He also spoke about three problems leading to delay:
(1) They do not know exactly what is Phobos soil like and which type of soil capture device would be the best.
(2) They do not have 100% comms coverage yet.
(3) More careful testing of component elements is needed.

http://www.rg.ru/2009/09/29/perminov.html

For those speaking Russian there is the related excerpt:

Quote
РГ: А что с космическим аппаратом "Фобос-Грунт", запуск которого к спутнику Марса планировался в середине октября?

Перминов: Бюро совета РАН по космосу рекомендовало перенести реализацию этой научной миссии на октябрь 2011 года.

РГ: Почему?

Перминов: Для того чтобы обеспечить более высокую ее надежность. Ученые рассчитывают уточнить характер самой поверхности Фобоса. Это нужно, чтобы точнее сконструировать устройство для забора грунта. Если грунт слишком твердый, то неправильно выбранный способ его забора может свести к нулю результат столь дорогой экспедиции. Кроме того, пока не достигнута 100-процентная надежность дублированной непрерывной связи с аппаратом на всех этапах полета. Нужна и более надежная отработка составных элементов.

РГ: А с чем связан перенос именно на два года? Если бы аппарат был запущен сейчас, то к апрелю 2011 года он уже сел бы на Фобос...

Перминов: В 2011 году открывается наиболее оптимальное астрономическое окно для полета к Марсу и его спутнику. Это позволит "Фобос-Грунту" по кратчайшей траектории достичь цели и вернуться назад.
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Offline JimO

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Re: LIVE: Zenit-2SB launch with Phobos-Grunt - November 8, 2011
« Reply #59 on: 09/29/2009 03:56 PM »
Thanks for the link -- the question is, were the program planners expecting a mitacle to occur during the last few months, to solve these problems?


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