Author Topic: LIVE: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26 - Jan 17, 09  (Read 135856 times)

Offline astrobrian

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #60 on: 12/05/2008 04:55 AM »
Here's a pic of the Delta IV from November 13th

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #61 on: 12/05/2008 12:06 PM »
Oh, that's a big tower eh!

I remember watching it getting built and to think that its the size of an office tower and that it rolls back and forth is crazy.

I just love this stuff!

GO DELTA!
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26 - 17 December
« Reply #62 on: 12/05/2008 07:38 PM »
Now NET 12/20/08, per MSDB.  Saturday before big holiday week, but "No Earlier Than" still.

Edit:  It could be late Friday EST as well and still list as 12/20, Universal Time.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/05/2008 07:42 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline Antares

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #63 on: 12/06/2008 01:53 AM »
Oh, that's a big tower eh!  I remember watching it getting built and to think that its the size of an office tower and that it rolls back and forth is crazy.

10 million pounds on wheels.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline bad_astra

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #64 on: 12/08/2008 06:57 PM »
I'll be staying at Ponce Inlet Christmas week. I know they're unlikely to launch during that period, but I would really like to see a D IV Heavy launch.
"Contact Light" -Buzz Aldrin

Offline mike robel

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #65 on: 12/08/2008 11:32 PM »
Postponed.  apparently trying to see if they will launch before xmas or in new year.

Offline Analyst

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #66 on: 12/09/2008 07:10 AM »
Delta IV history points to new year.

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Online William Graham

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #67 on: 12/09/2008 01:03 PM »
Postponed.  apparently trying to see if they will launch before xmas or in new year.

Old news. That's the delay from 17 December (16th EST). It's already been rescheduled for 20 December.
« Last Edit: 12/09/2008 01:04 PM by GW_Simulations »

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #68 on: 12/09/2008 02:58 PM »
Postponed.  apparently trying to see if they will launch before xmas or in new year.

Old news. That's the delay from 17 December (16th EST). It's already been rescheduled for 20 December.

December 20 seems to be the old news.  The launch has now slipped into January, according to SFN.

 - Ed Kyle

Online William Graham

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #69 on: 12/09/2008 05:30 PM »
Postponed.  apparently trying to see if they will launch before xmas or in new year.

Old news. That's the delay from 17 December (16th EST). It's already been rescheduled for 20 December.

December 20 seems to be the old news.  The launch has now slipped into January, according to SFN.

 - Ed Kyle

That's a new slip. They're now targeting 11 January.

Offline Analyst

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #70 on: 12/10/2008 07:56 AM »
As expected. ;)

This ends US space launch activity for this year: 15 launches, 14 successful.

5 Delta II, 4 STS, 2 Atlas V, 2 Pegasus, 2 Falcon 1 (1 failure). No Delta IV, just 2 EELVs. 9 out of 15 by soon to be retired systems. Quite depressing.

From January: "United Launch Alliance plans 16 Atlas and Delta rocket launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station next year. Six Delta 2 rockets, four Delta 4 rockets and six Atlas 5 rockets are to be sent aloft."

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ft-080102-lauches-ahead.html

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« Last Edit: 12/10/2008 08:09 AM by Analyst »

Online William Graham

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #71 on: 12/10/2008 09:29 AM »
As expected. ;)

This ends US space launch activity for this year: 15 launches, 14 successful.

5 Delta II, 4 STS, 2 Atlas V, 2 Pegasus, 2 Falcon 1 (1 failure). No Delta IV, just 2 EELVs. 9 out of 15 by soon to be retired systems. Quite depressing.

From January: "United Launch Alliance plans 16 Atlas and Delta rocket launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station next year. Six Delta 2 rockets, four Delta 4 rockets and six Atlas 5 rockets are to be sent aloft."

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ft-080102-lauches-ahead.html

Analyst

I took the first post I made this year in the "US Launch Schedule" thread (2 January), and compared the schedule to what actually happened:

2008
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (GMT)
January/February - STS-122 - Atlantis - Kennedy - Launched 7 February
14 February - STS-123 - Endeavour - Kennedy - Launched 11 March
26 February - NRO L-28 - Atlas V 411 - Vandenberg - Launched 13 March
13 March - GPS IIR-19 - Delta II 7925 - Canaveral - Launched 15 March
21 March - ICO-G1 - Atlas V 421 - Canaveral - Launched 14 April
15 April - C/NOFS - Pegasus-XL - Kwajelein - Launched 16 April
17 April - STSS ATRR - Delta II 7920 - Vandenberg - Delayed to April 2009
24 April - STS-124 - Discovery - Kennedy - 12:26 - Launched 31 May
15 May - NRO L-26 - Delta IV-H -  Canaveral - Delayed to January 2009
16 May - GLAST - Delta II 7920H - Canaveral - Launched 11 June
May - WGS-2 - Atlas V 421 - Canaveral - Delayed to March 2009
15 June - Jason 2 - Delta II 7320 - Vandenberg - Launched 20 June
25 June - TacSat-3/GeneSat-2/PharmaSat 1 - Minotaur - MARS - Delayed to January 2009
June - GPS-IIR-20 - Delta II 7925 - Canaveral - delayed to March 2009
2nd Quarter - Celestis-Explorers/Demosat?? - Falcon 1 - Omelek - Failed 3 August*
2nd Quarter - RazakSat/3 CubeSats - Falcon 1 - Omelek - Delayed to 2009
15 July - IBEX - Pegausus-XL - Kwajelein - Launched 19 October
16 July - STSS Demo - Delta II 7920 - Canaveral - Delayed to June 2009
20 July - GOES-O - Delta IV-M+(4,2) - Canaveral - Delayed to April 2009
July - DMSP-5D3-18 - Atlas V 401 - Vandenberg - Delayed to August 2009
7 August - STS-125 - Atlantis - Kennedy - 12:24 - Delayed to May 2009
August - NRO L-25 - Delta IV-M - Vandenberg - Delayed to 2010
19 September - STS-126 - Endeavour - Kennedy - Launched 15 November
September - WGS-3 - Delta IVM+(5,4) - Canaveral - Delayed to 2009
3rd Quarter - GeoEye-1 - Delta II 7920 - Vandenberg - Launched 6 September
28 October - LRO/LCROSS - Atlas V 401 - Canaveral - Delayed to 2009
October - TacSat-4 - Minotaur IV - Vandenberg - Delayed to Septemer 2009
October - GPS-IIR-21 - Delta II 7925 - Canaveral - Delayed to August 2009
6 November? - STS-119 - Discovery - Kennedy - Delayed to February 2009
1 December - SDO - Atlas V 401 - Canaveral - Delayed to 2009/2010
15 December - OCO - Taurus 3110 - Vandenberg - Delayed to January 2009
December - SBSS - Minotaur IV - Vandenberg? - Delayed to 2009
TBD - COSMO-3 - Delta II 7420-10 - Vandenberg - Launched 25 October

* - Demosat replaced by Trailblazer, PreSat & NanoSail-D


The list does not include the Falcon 1 launch on 28 September, with RatSat, as this was only added to the launch schedule 1 month before launch.

Colour codes:
Blue: Launched ahead of schedule (0)
Green: Launched on scheudle, or delayed less than 1 week (6)
Orange: Launched behind schedule (8)
Red: Not yet launched (19)


Note to admin: If this is too far off topic, feel free to delete.
« Last Edit: 12/10/2008 09:33 AM by GW_Simulations »

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #72 on: 12/11/2008 05:16 PM »
This ends US space launch activity for this year: 15 launches, 14 successful.

5 Delta II, 4 STS, 2 Atlas V, 2 Pegasus, 2 Falcon 1 (1 failure). No Delta IV, just 2 EELVs. 9 out of 15 by soon to be retired systems. Quite depressing.

From January: "United Launch Alliance plans 16 Atlas and Delta rocket launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station next year. Six Delta 2 rockets, four Delta 4 rockets and six Atlas 5 rockets are to be sent aloft."

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ft-080102-lauches-ahead.html

Analyst

This year's results are, unfortunately, par for the course for the past five years or so.  Since 2004, inclusive, the U.S. has averaged only 16 orbital launch attempts per year.  Each year was preceded by seriously flawed predictions of many more launches.  I find it interesting that this collapse from previous launch totals (in the 20-35 per year range) has coincided with the "EELV Era".  One wonders if this isn't turning out to be the "DELV Era".

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/11/2008 05:20 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline yinzer

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #73 on: 12/11/2008 09:49 PM »
This ends US space launch activity for this year: 15 launches, 14 successful.

5 Delta II, 4 STS, 2 Atlas V, 2 Pegasus, 2 Falcon 1 (1 failure). No Delta IV, just 2 EELVs. 9 out of 15 by soon to be retired systems. Quite depressing.

From January: "United Launch Alliance plans 16 Atlas and Delta rocket launches at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station next year. Six Delta 2 rockets, four Delta 4 rockets and six Atlas 5 rockets are to be sent aloft."

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ft-080102-lauches-ahead.html

Analyst

This year's results are, unfortunately, par for the course for the past five years or so.  Since 2004, inclusive, the U.S. has averaged only 16 orbital launch attempts per year.  Each year was preceded by seriously flawed predictions of many more launches.  I find it interesting that this collapse from previous launch totals (in the 20-35 per year range) has coincided with the "EELV Era".  One wonders if this isn't turning out to be the "DELV Era".

There's a conveniently preserved 2004-era EELV manifest here, and a summary of EELV flights to date here.

As of 2004, there were 25 EELV launches scheduled through the end of FY 2008.  Of these 25 payloads, 16 of them are still not ready for launch.  1 is currently delayed a few months due to LV issues, but was 3 years late before those issues arose.

When the USAF created the EELV program, they hoped to save money for government payloads by sharing fixed costs with commercial launches.  In a further attempt to save money, they included a clause saying that the USAF couldn't pay more than any commercial customer.  The anticipated flood of commercial launches never materialized, and the lowest-price guarantee made EELVs commercially uncompetitive.  This has put EELV into the typical procurement death spiral.  There was a chance for NASA to help break out of this spiral by buying 4-ish EELV launches a year to service ISS, but they went off to do Ares I and COTS instead.

So here we are.  Individual launch vehicles have very little to do with the current state of affairs, the main issues are programmatic and payload-related.

Edited to fix links.  Damn markup language.
« Last Edit: 12/12/2008 07:44 AM by yinzer »
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Online William Graham

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #74 on: 12/11/2008 11:31 PM »
The anticipated flood of commercial launches never materialized, and the lowest-price guarantee made EELVs commercially uncompetitive.  This has put EELV into the typical procurement death spiral.

IIRC, isn't Delta IV only available for US Government customers?

Offline yinzer

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #75 on: 12/12/2008 01:03 AM »
The anticipated flood of commercial launches never materialized, and the lowest-price guarantee made EELVs commercially uncompetitive.  This has put EELV into the typical procurement death spiral.

IIRC, isn't Delta IV only available for US Government customers?

Yes, now.  If you went to ULA and said "I really want to buy a Delta IV" they'd sell you one.  They just realize that no non US Government customer would ever want to buy one, and so aren't going to keep around the marketing and business folks needed to try to sell them.
California 2008 - taking rights from people and giving rights to chickens.

Offline Analyst

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #76 on: 12/12/2008 07:00 AM »

1) There's a conveniently preserved 2004-era EELV manifest here, and a summary of EELV flights to date here.

2) As of 2004, there were 25 EELV launches scheduled through the end of FY 2008.  Of these 25 payloads, 16 of them are still not ready for launch.  1 is currently delayed a few months due to LV issues, but was 3 years late before those issues arose.

1) Both links don't work for me.
2) I don't know if these are payload or booster issues or both. But assume these are only payload issues: What does this say about the US military space program (USAF, NRO) and its contractors, who are pretty much the same contractors building and operating EELVs?

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Offline yinzer

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #77 on: 12/12/2008 08:26 AM »

1) There's a conveniently preserved 2004-era EELV manifest here, and a summary of EELV flights to date here.

2) As of 2004, there were 25 EELV launches scheduled through the end of FY 2008.  Of these 25 payloads, 16 of them are still not ready for launch.  1 is currently delayed a few months due to LV issues, but was 3 years late before those issues arose.

1) Both links don't work for me.
2) I don't know if these are payload or booster issues or both. But assume these are only payload issues: What does this say about the US military space program (USAF, NRO) and its contractors, who are pretty much the same contractors building and operating EELVs?

1) Fixed the links.

2) Yes, milspace is a disaster these days.  Yes, it's hard to assign blame accurately between the DoD and the big contractors.  No, the EELV program has not turned out as hoped.  But the EELVs actually exist.  They cost more than desired, and they have launch vehicle delays here and there, but a government agency with a satellite that's ready to fly can generally get it to orbit at a cost that's not completely outrageous.   By the standards of milspace procurements over the last decade, this is a stunning success.

You can argue "EELV is a failure because it costs way more than the Atlas/Delta/Titan that it's replacing".  You can argue "EELV is a failure because it didn't get a big share of the commercial launch market".  You could argue "EELV is a failure because it's less reliable than Atlas/Delta/Titan".  But arguing "EELV is a failure because it only flies four times a year", when there haven't been a bunch of payloads sitting around waiting for rides doesn't make sense, and if you draw the conclusion "EELV only flies four times a year, so we need a new rocket that will fly 8 times a year", you'll have been lead astraay.
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Offline edkyle99

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #78 on: 12/12/2008 03:19 PM »

You can argue "EELV is a failure because it costs way more than the Atlas/Delta/Titan that it's replacing".  You can argue "EELV is a failure because it didn't get a big share of the commercial launch market".  You could argue "EELV is a failure because it's less reliable than Atlas/Delta/Titan".  But arguing "EELV is a failure because it only flies four times a year", when there haven't been a bunch of payloads sitting around waiting for rides doesn't make sense, and if you draw the conclusion "EELV only flies four times a year, so we need a new rocket that will fly 8 times a year", you'll have been lead astraay.

EELV is a failure because it costs too much.  Since it costs too much, it cannot compete for commercial launch business.  Since it can't garner commercial launches, it rarely flies.  Since it rarely flies, it costs too much. 

(I would be happy to see four launches in a year.  EELV has actually only averaged about 3.5 launches per year since inception.  It cost more than $1.2 billion to perform two EELV launches this year.)

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 12/12/2008 03:30 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline Analyst

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Re: Delta IV Heavy: NRO L-26
« Reply #79 on: 12/12/2008 08:04 PM »
Most comsat operators think different and use Proton, or Zenit, or Ariane. All flew more this year than EELVs combined.

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