Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2017?

None, all the landings so far were flukes (or fakes)
0 (0%)
1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
2 (1.2%)
4
6 (3.6%)
5
1 (0.6%)
6
11 (6.5%)
7
15 (8.9%)
8
17 (10.1%)
9
17 (10.1%)
10
19 (11.2%)
11
9 (5.3%)
12
19 (11.2%)
13
11 (6.5%)
14
11 (6.5%)
15
4 (2.4%)
16
7 (4.1%)
17
4 (2.4%)
18
4 (2.4%)
19
1 (0.6%)
20 or more
11 (6.5%)

Total Members Voted: 169

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 07:16 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?  (Read 9851 times)

Online Lar

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This is a companion poll to the number of flights poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0
Consult that poll for history, manifest predictions, etc....

Here as well is last year's version of THIS poll : http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0

For the purposes of this poll an "intact core returned" or "successfully landed first stage" means that the stage returned from boost and executed a landing in which it did not topple over, blow up, strike on impact, or disintegrate. There has to be a picture of the stage standing erect and at rest. If it immediately topples after that, or is damaged in handling it still counts.  If SpaceX reuses a stage and lands it again, each successful landing of the stage counts as a returned core.

The landing can be RTLS or on an ASDS or some as yet unspecified thing (I'll modify this if that happens)

Note that a Falcon Heavy has 3 cores. It's possible that 0, 1, 2, or 3 could be returned successfully. it's possible that some do a RTLS and some land on an ASDS. Each core that landed successfully counts as one core. Each core expended, whether by choice, or by accident, or that fails to remain upright and stationary long enough to get a picture, counts as zero.

Just as with the number of flights poll, suborbital tests do not count. That is the following things don't count: a launch abort test, a first stage only launch test, a test at Spaceport America if that comes to pass...  the stage has to be one that participated in a mission intended to be orbital.  Whether the mission itself is a success doesn't matter. The second stage can blow up one second after MECO (or even before, although surviving that and returning might be a bit harder) and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Hopefully that makes things clear. You may not agree with my definitions, or wish they were different but these are the ones being used so take that into account. These are the same definitions as last year.
« Last Edit: 08/26/2017 05:20 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Lar

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I went 16 launches.

They demonstrated cadence at the Cape before the mishap, if they can quickly get back to that cadence, and propagate that to Vandy, 16 won't be hard at all... as long as there isn't another mishap.  Of that I think two will be FH.  So that's 14+6 first stages, and I think 80% recovery of those is not unreasonable, so I went 16 recovered stages too.

16 stages recovered...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Barrie

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10 recoveries of the 15 launches I guessed at.  A few mishaps, and some deliberate sacrifices for extra performance.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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10 recoveries of the 15 launches I guessed at.  A few mishaps, and some deliberate sacrifices for extra performance.

I agree with your reasons for adjustment but I have different numbers. I think 19 cores (15 launches including two FH). Don't see any performance sacrifice being necessary with FH but central core may be tricky so I'll say 5 out of 6 cores recovered. For the other 13 cores I'd say 3 lost for performance and 3 due to mishaps (probably at least one re-used core in there) so that's 7 more recovered for a total of 12.

Offline ZachS09

7 out of 10 is a good majority for my predictions, so I went with 7 successful landings and 3 RUDs; one of the RUDs might be one of the Falcon Heavy cores on its demo flight. I'm guessing one of the boosters could have an issue while the other booster and the central core make it in one piece each.
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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I said 13 launches including FH, so 15 cores, and giving a bit better than 50/50 success rate, that is 8 landings that the refurbishment team  ::) get to practice on...
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Offline Ixian77

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10 out of 17 for me, no research involved..............

Offline hop

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Voted 10 of 12. I was surprised both by the number of attempts and successes in 2016, don't expect FH to fly in 2017.

Offline vapour_nudge

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9 from 14

Offline deadman719

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8 out of 12.

I think sea conditions could result in a couple of landings being water landings. A couple of others may touch down a little too fast/hard.

Rob
« Last Edit: 12/17/2016 08:55 PM by deadman719 »

Offline Kaputnik

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9 landings from 11 launched cores. I think FH won't fly next year.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline pippin

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I went with 13 flights, one of them an FH that makes 15 cores.
I don't see them have any failures because they're probably going to be more careful in 2017, can't really afford to lose another mission.

But I also don't see them bring home all cores even though the landing looked good recently so 11 shall be the number.

Online Comga

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Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Lar

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Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
How is this a bingo game? Not quite clear on that
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Comga

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Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
How is this a bingo game? Not quite clear on that
Row would be launches
Columns would be landings
(Some combinations wouldn't make sense, but people picked invalid combos on the landing bingo which didn't make sense, either.)
Just a thought.

Edit: It doesn't appear that any two people have made the same two choices.  Like the bingo game.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 06:03 AM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online MikeAtkinson

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25 F9 + 2 FH = 29 cores - 1 failure = 28 cores recovered.

Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

Online MikeAtkinson

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Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

You sure are, one more core landed than launched! ;)
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 05:41 PM by MikeAtkinson »

Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

You sure are, one more core landed than launched! ;)

LOL, I'm going back to 1st grade :) :o

I guessed only 8 launches in '17 with no falcon heavy.  6 successful landings.  1 being the relaunched booster.

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