Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 33196 times)

Online EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #120 on: 03/19/2017 04:33 PM »
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flights

Number of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

To me, this is less of a contest of who is "right" (with wonderful prizes!) than it is a way to harness the wisdom of crowds to see what the consensus is.
Our collective impression is between 13 and 14 launches this year. 

It is not yet the end of the first quarter of the year.  It's pretty early to be adjusting projections for the year.
You can do all the extrapolation and calculation and discussion of the two failures, description of launch pads, tracking of first stages, and contemplating on reuse, but each of us has read about all of these and formed our various opinion.    Yours is just as valid as the other 300+ that were entered into the poll.

(those of you who didn't vote, you are just "the critic".  Get in the ring next time.)
YMMV, as may your opinion

Well, for what it's worth, I think it can be both :)
A way to find out what the consensus about SpaceX flights will be during the year, with enlighted opinions of this community AND somehow a funny game about who's prediction would be right or wrong.

I somehow agree with the fact that non-voters should not complain nor critic the choices. I personnaly chose 15 which I find still realistic at this point.

I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame :(
 

Offline skybum

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #121 on: 03/22/2017 09:44 AM »
My estimate still stands at 23.

6 by 1 June (4 more total in March/April/May from LC39A only)
8 in June thru September (2 per month - 1 LC39A and 1 LC4E)
9 in Oct thru Dec (3 per month - 1 LC39A, 1 SLC-40, and 1 LC4E)

From the perspective of launch-site availability, this seems reasonable. But I suspect that payload availability would then become the bottleneck at around 18 flights. I seriously doubt that SpaceX would continue to fly empty rockets, or that their customers would be able to bring payloads forward from 2018.

Note that when SpaceX has its own near-infinite supply of small communications satellites to launch, payload availability will cease to be such a bottleneck -- they can keep up a regular launch cadence regardless of whether their customers are ready or not. 

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #122 on: 03/22/2017 11:40 AM »
From the perspective of launch-site availability, this seems reasonable. But I suspect that payload availability would then become the bottleneck at around 18 flights. I seriously doubt that SpaceX would continue to fly empty rockets, or that their customers would be able to bring payloads forward from 2018.
Note that when SpaceX has its own near-infinite supply of small communications satellites to launch, payload availability will cease to be such a bottleneck -- they can keep up a regular launch cadence regardless of whether their customers are ready or not.

Given SpaceX's current backlog, is payload availability really an issue for the next 12-24 months?

Offline spacenut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #123 on: 03/22/2017 12:31 PM »
They still have to have a FH demo flight (3 cores).  They have to get in Dragon 2 flight.   That is their own, not payloads that are available.  I voted 12 to be realistic, but I hope they can do over 20. 

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #124 on: 03/22/2017 01:52 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.

Offline mme

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #125 on: 03/22/2017 03:13 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Once LC40 is operational, the cadence at LC39A may also be throttled by work to prepare for FH and HSF prior to flying any of those missions.

Sadly I did not vote in the poll because I was not checking the poll section.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline rpapo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #126 on: 03/22/2017 03:16 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Once LC40 is operational, the cadence at LC39A may also be throttled by work to prepare for FH and HSF prior to flying any of those missions.

Sadly I did not vote in the poll because I was not checking the poll section.
It may also be slightly limited by the fact that the LC40 HIF can only hold one rocket at a time, compared to the HIF at LC39A, which can hold five cores at once, and can therefore be prepping the next mission before the current mission gets off the ground.
An Apollo fanboy . . . fifty years ago.

Online EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #127 on: 03/22/2017 03:49 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.

Offline mme

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #128 on: 03/22/2017 04:21 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Seems like you're suggesting we only predict the past. :)
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Online EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #129 on: 03/22/2017 04:50 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Seems like you're suggesting we only predict the past. :)

Well, to me, predictions should not come with "new info..." and past tense in it :)

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #130 on: 03/22/2017 05:01 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Current Launch date for SES-10 is March 29 (13 day turnaround for LC39A). Except for Atlas V slip it would have been March 27 (11 day turn around for LC39A). So a 15 day turn around average over the next 2 months (April and May) are not out of the question. But rightly things never go perfectly and there may be a few day slip of several of the 4 next launches after SES-10. So At least 2 more if not 3 by 1 June with the next one early June 3rd/4th (For 2017 by 1 June 6th/7th/8th more likely 6 than 8 but 8 is still possible). For April and May there are actual launch dates posted for the next 3 missions past SES-10. http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0

When has SpaceX posted launch dates for more than the next mission if even that?
The existence of these launch dates in the range schedule mean that SpaceX is serious about the launch dates.

Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #131 on: 03/30/2017 07:45 PM »
...

I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame :(

Nobody being right on this poll, or the end of the world?
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Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #132 on: 03/31/2017 01:50 AM »
2 flights in March!

There looks to be 2 flights planned in April, May, and June with recent confirmation of the dates.

If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year month for rest of the year that will be 22 flights. Seems possible.

Edit: I see! Hope you all had fun with that word mix-up. :-)
« Last Edit: 03/31/2017 01:22 PM by rockets4life97 »

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #133 on: 03/31/2017 01:58 AM »
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year

Well at least we now know who voted for that.

Online EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #134 on: 03/31/2017 07:25 AM »
...

I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame :(

Nobody being right on this poll, or the end of the world?

Well, if tomorrow is the end of the world, there's nothing to be done at our level. But if we end up all losing this stat game, that would be a shame.

Back to statistics anyway, still no winner as of today (4 flights), but then it's not even april, so there is some margin.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #135 on: 03/31/2017 11:07 AM »
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year

Well at least we now know who voted for that.

I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year. I think that is more realistic with normal constraints.

I've been impressed so far and could imagine us all sitting here in 3 months looking at 10 launches in the first half the year from SpaceX.

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #136 on: 03/31/2017 12:47 PM »
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Well at least we now know who voted for that.
I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.

Think about it.

Offline mikelepage

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #137 on: 04/10/2017 09:52 AM »
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Well at least we now know who voted for that.
I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.

Think about it.

I find time flies by at a year per year.  I voted for 15, which is less than 18, but still more than once per typo.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #138 on: 05/02/2017 02:26 PM »
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.

Online Jarnis

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #139 on: 05/05/2017 06:22 PM »
I voted 16. Looks like I'm going to regret guessing low :)

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