Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 32917 times)

Offline llanitedave

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #80 on: 01/14/2017 05:06 AM »
Guessed 17, and I think that may be as many as they can handle.  Weather alone can slow them down.
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Offline craigcocca

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #81 on: 01/14/2017 05:26 AM »
Given that they have the Iridium NEXT constellation to keep VAFB busy this year, I'll go with 15.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #82 on: 01/14/2017 05:35 AM »
Love the fact that this year's poll has such a wide and more even spread than normal  :)
Of course hate the reason why (two failures)  :(

I think this year is going to be quite a ride!

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #83 on: 01/14/2017 05:52 AM »
Cross-posting for info:

In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast, she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.

Edit: I should have added she then said "and then increase may be 50% annually"
« Last Edit: 01/14/2017 06:10 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #84 on: 01/14/2017 06:33 PM »
The count is now 1 with a successful launch of the first Iridium sat set. A not is that there was 0 scrubs and launch occurred on first attempt with also successful 1st stage landing. Net up is LC-39A with Echostar-23 for a Jan 26 launch.

My prediction was 21-25 launches this year with an average of 2 a month. This is mainly because of the expected up to 8 launches from SLC-4E. With 12 from LC-39A and a possible 1 or 2 from a rebuilt SLC-40.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #85 on: 01/15/2017 12:07 AM »
"Mr. Musk targeted 27 launches for this year despite having never managed more than eight in a year. By 2019, he projected SpaceX will launch 52, or one a week, according to the documents."
I wonder for how many years they had this kind of projection?
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Offline enzo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #86 on: 01/15/2017 01:46 AM »
With the current glut of cores undergoing prep, I expect a strong start through March, followed by a slowdown as production catches up, followed by a ramp in late summer/fall as reuse comes into vogue. 10 before 8/1 and 10 after 8/1.

Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #87 on: 01/15/2017 05:43 AM »
I won't officially vote until near the poll-closing date in mid-January but I'm currently leaning towards ~16 launches next year. My rationale is that they'll be able to launch about twice per month now that they have two east-coast pads (39A and 40) and they'll spend a total of ~4 months with all launches on hold investigating ~1 significant anomaly and ~1 loss of vehicle. Therefore I expect (12 - 4) * 2 = 16 launches. Note that 1 LOV in 16 launches is a 94% success rate, which is about average for commercially-competitive launch vehicles these days.

The fact that the RTF flight was successful with zero scrubs raises my estimate of their launch rate slightly. I'll vote 17.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #88 on: 01/15/2017 05:04 PM »
I  went with 15 as an optimistic number.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2017 05:05 PM by Patchouli »

Offline hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #89 on: 01/15/2017 08:37 PM »
In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast, she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.
"Half SpaceX official manifest" has pretty good track record so far, so I'm feeling pretty good with 12 ;)

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #90 on: 01/16/2017 09:53 PM »
The poll is still open a few more days, but I figure most folks have voted. So, here are some summary statistics:

Mode: 12
Median: 14
Mean: 14.3

Offline rickl

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #91 on: 01/16/2017 11:41 PM »
I forgot about this poll until now.  I picked 12, which I think is the same number I picked last year.  It's kind of a pessimistic number, because they should be able to do better than that.  I hope they don't have any more failures, or the company could be in trouble.


Amusingly, each time I've taken this poll, I just picked a number out of the air, without trying to explain or justify it, and before reading the other comments.  Each time the number I picked has turned out to be the most popular number.
Nominal now means "Yeehah!!"

Online Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #92 on: 01/17/2017 07:27 PM »
I voted 13. Voted 11 last year, and they got 8 (almost 9) and then AMOS 6. Without failure, they likely would've gotten 12 or 13.

SpaceX hopes for 1 flight every two weeks. That's 26 per year and has over 30 on the manifest. 13 is half of 26.

If I count last year as 9, then assume 50% growth, that's 13.5. If I assume 8, then it's 12.

I think they most likely won't have a failure this year in which case is guess 15-16 launches. But there's a chance something will go wrong, so I'm pulling back to 13.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline jongoff

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #93 on: 01/17/2017 08:54 PM »
I voted 13. Voted 11 last year, and they got 8 (almost 9) and then AMOS 6. Without failure, they likely would've gotten 12 or 13.

SpaceX hopes for 1 flight every two weeks. That's 26 per year and has over 30 on the manifest. 13 is half of 26.

If I count last year as 9, then assume 50% growth, that's 13.5. If I assume 8, then it's 12.

I think they most likely won't have a failure this year in which case is guess 15-16 launches. But there's a chance something will go wrong, so I'm pulling back to 13.

It's interesting that the two of us are so close to each other's guesses this time around. I guessed 12 back on the day they opened this poll--but I'm hoping to finally come in below what SpaceX actually achieves. Last year I think I guessed 10. So far I've always been overoptimistic in spite of thinking I was being pessimistic. Hopefully this year is my first year that changes, and I end up looking like a wet blanket.

~Jon

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #94 on: 01/19/2017 03:30 AM »
I have to call this one a bit early.
Similar evolution to last year. 
Within a few days the best fit to a Gaussian distribution centered on ~13.5 and never moved. 
That's just over one per month.
Variance rose to 5 and barely crept up afterwards despite steady voting.
We need to keep separate votes for higher numbers.  21-25 was just too popular and hard to fit.  I counted that as averaged over each of the five bins.
On the other hand, only two people voted <6.
Now, with one success already, let's keep our fingers crossed for SpaceX to exceed our expectations.
« Last Edit: 01/19/2017 03:31 AM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #95 on: 01/19/2017 03:50 AM »
Those are very pretty pictures, but let's see last year's, how did we do against reality? :)

Also, some of you cowboys like to wait till the last minute, dontcha?
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #96 on: 01/19/2017 09:15 PM »
I voted 13, but I think their odds of getting less than 6 are greater than them getting more than 30.
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Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #97 on: 01/19/2017 09:24 PM »
Interesting that 3,4,5 got no votes AT ALL...

I may extend the single numbers out farther next year before switching to 5s....
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline subzero788

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #98 on: 01/19/2017 10:15 PM »
Voted 9. Being conservative always seems to pay off in these polls

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #99 on: 01/20/2017 01:13 PM »
Hmm, two guys voted one or two launches. They probaby assumed another failure.

First guy already lost (apparently he counted on two failures in row). There WILL be at least one launch attempt.
Second guy will win only if this (EchoStar) launch attempt ends in failure AND RTF wil be longer than 11 months. Second assumption would be pretty probable under these circumstances, actually.

On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Tags: range