Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 256353 times)

Offline starhawk92

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« on: 05/04/2016 05:30 PM »
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
This table is now being maintained by gongora


Prior thread 3 : https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0

Sites:
      C=Canaveral (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site ion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2015-12-22F91019LORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2LEO1892C-4020
2016-01-17  1042/-8F9.SJason-3LEO553V-4E21
2016-03-04  1835/-5F9.SSES-9GTO5271C-4022
2016-04-08  1643/-4F91021.1SCRS-8LEO~9kC-4023
2016-05-06  0121/-4F91022SJCSAT-14GTO4696C-4024
2016-05-27  1740/-4F91023.1SThaicom 8GTO3025C-4025
2016-06-15  1029/-4F9.SEutelsat 117W B & ABS-2AGTO4200C-4026
2016-07-18  0045/-4F9.LCRS-9LEO~9kC-4027
2016-08-14  0126/-4F9.SJCSAT-16GTO~4600C-4028
2016-09-01  0907/-4F9.N/AAMOS-6(destroyed in pad test)GTO5500C-4029
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031LCRS 10LEO~9kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035LCRS 11LEO~9kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036SIridium NEXT (Flight 2)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35eGTO6761C-39A39
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2017-08-14~1400/-4F91039LCRS 12LEO~9kC-39A40
2017-08-24  1150/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5SSO475V-4E41
2017-08-lateF9.LAir Force X-37B OTV-5LEO5400C42
2017-09F9.?SES-11/Echostar 105GTO5400C43
2017-09F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 3)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-Q4F9.SKoreasat-5AGTO3500C .
2017-10F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2017-Q4F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-11F9.LCRS 13LEO~9kC.
2017-Q4F9..Hispasat 1FGTO~5kC(60)
2017-Q4H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2017-12F9..BangabandhuGTO~3500C61
2017F9..Paz & co-passengerSSO1400V-4E(62)
2017-2018F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q1F9.SSES-14 (NASA GOLD payload)GTO4200C.
2018F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-02F9.LCRS 14LEO~9kC.
2018-02F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q1F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-H1H.LLSArabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018-03-20F9..NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-03F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-04F9.LCRS 15LEO~9kC.
2018-H1F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-H1F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.C-39A.
2018-H1F9..Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-H1F9..Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-H1H.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-05F9..USAF GPS III A-2MEO3880C.
2018-06F9..Telkom 4GTO.C(68)
2018F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-midF9..Iridium NEXT 8/GRACE-FOSSO~6000V-4E.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9.LCRS 16LEO~9kC.
2018-Q3F9..RADARSAT ConstellationSSO1400V-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS 17LEO~9kC.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q4F9..GiSat-1GTO~6kC/B.
2018-H2F9..Spaceflight GTO-1(200x36k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-H2F9..Spaceflight GTO-2(200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS 18LEO~9kC.
2018-2019H.???SpaceX Crewed CircumlunarTLI~10k?C-39A(99)
2019F9..CRS 19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS IIIA-3MEO3880C.
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020F..Inmarsat 6 F1GTO.C/B(65)
2020-H1F9..Spaceflight GTO-C(200x36k/km)GTO.C/B(70)
2020-H1F9..Spaceflight SSO-D (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C/B(69)
2021-04F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
TBDF..InmarsatGTO.C/B.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
TBDF..EutelSat....

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches)
Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg
Upcoming SpaceX Talks

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(60) Hispasat 1f also called Hispasat 30W-6
(62) Paz (Hisdesat) post in manifest thread / article in DW
(65) Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention / Airbus contract / Gunter / Space Intel mention
(68) Telkom 4 links Gunter
(69) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule
(99) SpaceX announcement

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5

L2 notes on manifest:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42937.msg1679127#msg1679127 [May 16, 2017]
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42452.msg1701815#msg1701815 [July 12, 2017]
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42426.msg1702614#msg1702614 [July 15, 2017]

Recent Edits:
Jul 21  Moved CRS-12 to August 14.  Moved DM-1 to February 2018.
Jul 19  Removed Red Dragon
Jul 11  Moved SAOCOM-1A to March 2018, SAOCOM-1B to 2019, removed specific months from future Iridium flights
Jun 30  Moved SES-14 to 2018-Q1
Jun 28  Moved OTV-5 to August 28.
Jun 27  Removed exact date from OTV-5.  Moved Formosat-5 to August 24.  Moved Iridium Flight 3 to September.  Moved SES-11 to September.  Moved Koreasat-5A to Q4.  Moved PSN-6 to mid-2018.  Moved Intelsat 35e to July 2.  Removed ViaSat-3 Asia.  Marked Iridium Flight 2 complete.
Jun 23  Moved CRS-12 to Aug 10.  Marked BulgariaSat 1 complete.
Jun 22  Moved Arabsat 6A before STP-2, both early/H1 2018
Jun 17  OTV-5 August 17.  Changed table format, now being maintained by gongora.

All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
« Last Edit: 07/21/2017 07:49 PM by gongora »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #1 on: 05/04/2016 05:35 PM »
The biggest question is if we know for sure that the RTLS pad/infrastructure will be in place in time for Formosat/Sherpa and how soon we might get a launch date for the west coast.
« Last Edit: 06/24/2017 03:15 AM by gongora »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #2 on: 05/04/2016 06:53 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #3 on: 05/04/2016 07:08 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

This new thread is started by starhawk92 so now he can edit the first post in place, and update the subject line...

edit: maybe not... see below...
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:56 PM by sewebster »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #4 on: 05/04/2016 08:39 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks.  Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate.  Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread.  Senior Members and Moderators know about this.  If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!   ::)

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #5 on: 05/04/2016 09:18 PM »
Probably going to rename this thread and lock (3).... by having the lead post be Starhawk92's they can edit the post similar to how the abort scrubs is handled and it is easy to find since it's the lead.

(https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0 is thread three)
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:18 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline arnezami

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #6 on: 05/04/2016 09:40 PM »
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:43 PM by arnezami »

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #7 on: 05/04/2016 09:56 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks.  Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate.  Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread.  Senior Members and Moderators know about this.  If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!   ::)

Oh, a separate thread for each update? This doesn't seem consistent with what Lar wrote below (and he's a mod).

edit: I meant below the quote, so, above this!  ;D
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:57 PM by sewebster »

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #8 on: 05/04/2016 09:58 PM »
I guess I should talk to starhawk92 about this but I assume they were going to edit the header post with updates. NOT a separate thread for each update.... that's way too many threads.

Edit: All good, that's how it will be, the header post will have the latest. I put a link back to thread 3 in the header as well.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2016 01:21 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online friendly3

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #9 on: 05/04/2016 10:08 PM »
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)

Nice find, arnezami. You would make a good detective.

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #10 on: 05/04/2016 10:38 PM »
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg
Props to Kabloona, who estimated it at 4500kg.

So, definitely lighter than SES-9, will be interesting to see how this affects the recovery profile (or not).

Offline arnezami

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #11 on: 05/05/2016 07:38 AM »
For comparison: on space.skyrocket.de there is also a manifest for the Falcon 9 v1.2 and for the Falcon Heavy.

When you click on the links for the payloads you get nice information and references to sources.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #12 on: 05/05/2016 04:10 PM »
This article was interesting from the standpoint that MDA executives see a trend starting that has two prongs: GSO sats are getting heavier (those not on contract yet) and the LEO constellation sats are multiplying rapidly.
http://spacenews.com/mda-corp-says-commercial-satcom-bidding-is-at-record-high-level/

For SpaceX this implication is that there will be an upswing in use of FH for GSO sats and a possible increase in launches out of VAFB for commercial customers probably using the now heavier LEO capable F9. Also the impact on the manifest would be that the LEO constellations would probably launch sooner than the new heavier GSO sats. I would not expect the wave of larger GSO to be NET 2019 and more likely 2020. They would probably grow in size to be up to the capabilities of a Vulcan/ACES or Ariane 64 whichever is lower. This size would also put them at the edge or beyond F9 capabilities meaning a lot more FH launches in the 2019 and latter time frame.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2016 04:14 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Tass

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #13 on: 05/05/2016 05:52 PM »
Four missions in May?! Oh that would be great if it were true.

Half of that will still be great. And just one will be fine (as long as it is followed by another in June).

Offline pericynthion

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #14 on: 05/05/2016 09:33 PM »
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

Offline mnelson

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #15 on: 05/06/2016 06:38 AM »
On April 29 spaceflightnow.com:
"Falcon 9/Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS 2A delayed; Falcon 9/Thaicom 8 moved forward"

They've swapped the order of these flights. Thaicom 8 as "late May" and Eutelsat 117 in June.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #16 on: 05/06/2016 06:51 AM »
Time for another update edit and more green text!
Whoo Hoo!
2016-05-06  F9(24)       OCISLY      JCSAT-14 [2]              GTO  4696    LC40
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #17 on: 05/06/2016 08:05 AM »
Update in a few hours, I need to try to get some sleep before the daily grind begins!!

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #18 on: 05/06/2016 03:34 PM »
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.

Offline schaban

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #19 on: 05/06/2016 04:18 PM »
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.

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