Author Topic: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?  (Read 15478 times)

Offline Takalok

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 146
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #20 on: 04/13/2008 11:19 PM »
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 30 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 35 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 40 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 42 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 43 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 45 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 48 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 53 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 67 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 70 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 76 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 87 t
Delta IV Heavy Upgrade 94 t
Next Genertion Delta 100 t

Oh, be still my beating heart... be still.......

http://www.astronautix.com/lvfam/delta.htm
Life is what happens while you're waiting for tomorrow.

Offline kraisee

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10408
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #21 on: 04/13/2008 11:27 PM »
Quote
marsavian - 13/4/2008  6:41 PM

Quote
kraisee - 13/4/2008  5:33 PM

By the time Ares-I is ready (IOC 2015), the upgraded Delta-IV Heavy will already have been flying for three years, with greater performance than Ares-I will have.

Ross.

There's really no excuse for NASA to build a LV that the commercial sector can beat already, wasteful in the extreme. Sorry to say this but this Emperor really has no clothes either and more and more are coming to realise this. The Saturn I/V idea was good for its day when there were no alternatives but we can do better now with what's available.

No argument from me!   I don't want NASA competing with the EELV's at all.   I want them concentrating on the really big stuff so we can go to both the moon and Mars efficiently.   Ares-I is a diversion which risks NASA losing support for the Heavy Lifter they plan to 'eventually' get around to.   Ares-I is a perfect example of taking your eyes off the ball IMHO.

Being over-budget, late and below performance with Ares-I is going to do severe damage to NASA's argument to secure funding for a second launcher later on.

I still see an advantage to human-rating one or other of the EELV's.   But I don't want the money being extracted from the exploration program in the short term to do it.   Jupiter-120 needs to be first priority, then an EELV, in partnership with USAF can happen alongside EDS/LSAM development.   That secures all the jobs.   I'm more than okay with that solution - in fact I've suggested it on numerous previous occasions.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline Avron

  • Canadian Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4914
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 150
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #22 on: 04/13/2008 11:27 PM »
"Qui audet adipiscitur"

I vote Yes - Time to clean up the decay ..

Offline Vacuum.Head

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 154
  • Still in the Cradle
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #23 on: 04/13/2008 11:45 PM »
My worry is that NASA does adopt DIRECT and proceeds to make a complete b*lls up of the entire program!
----------------------------------------
"...all the Universe or nothing." Oswald Cabal
["Shape of Things to Come" U.K. 1936  (Dir. William Cameron Menzies)]

Offline kraisee

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10408
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #24 on: 04/14/2008 12:26 AM »
Yeah, there are easy ways to go down the DIRECT path and still miss the sweet spot.

It all depends on the philosophy underlying the decision-making process.   Starting with Jupiter-120 and trying to re-develop it into J-232 is the wrong way to o it.   Design J-232 first and then fly that in J-120 configuration is the correct way and saves billions.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline Lampyridae

  • Veteran
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1641
  • Liked: 64
  • Likes Given: 114
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #25 on: 04/14/2008 01:22 AM »
I am pretty convinced that Ares V will never fly. If it's true that they're chasing 200mT IMTLEO (a good guideline from Apollo seems to be 1 astronaut = 50mT) then Ares V is a waste of time AND money. Ares I is not viewed with favour and this doesn't bode well for Ares V, especially with the lack of commonality. According to Ross, Chuck and co., many key people see Ares I as a failure waiting for Mike Griffin to leave before it collapses.

Why do I believe in Direct? Simple: the design is extremely conservative, tackles the main issues and is being pushed by people with no other interest than solving the problem. It'll have it's fair share of problems but no obvious obstacles which is more than one can say for Ares I & V.
SKYLON... The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen's preferred surface-to-orbit conveyance.

Offline kraisee

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10408
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #26 on: 04/14/2008 10:51 PM »
Of course we now have a certain "have to retire to spend more time with my family" Scott Doc Horowitz lining himself up to become administrator after Griffin.   He would absolutely continue the current approach...   ...to its unfortunate conclusion.

Thankfully though, everyone I've spoken to about his nomination in the corridors of power have laughed at the idea.   They seem to already know Ares is a complete debacle waiting to happen and they seem to have no intention of putting a Griffin puppet in that seat after he's gone.

I'm just praying that the 'close it all down' crowd doesn't get a strong grip next year.   That change of direction would be the wrong change.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline kraisee

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10408
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #27 on: 04/14/2008 10:55 PM »
Takalok - and LOC/LOM drops inversely proportionally to payload increase.

Those bigger 5-core or even 7-core Delta-IV's aren't safe enough because they are too complicated.   There's too much on them to go wrong.   I've heard assessments saying 1 in 10 losses for some of them.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline rsp1202

  • Elite Veteran
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1083
  • 3, 2, 1 . . . Make rocket go now
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #28 on: 04/14/2008 11:24 PM »
Quote
kraisee - 14/4/2008  3:51 PM
Of course we now have a certain "have to retire to spend more time with my family" Scott Doc Horowitz lining himself up to become administrator after Griffin.

I raised this specter on L2 over a month ago, but only as a joke. I should have realized it as a sign of the apocalypse.

Offline mike robel

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2053
  • Merritt Island, FL
  • Liked: 162
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #29 on: 04/15/2008 02:01 AM »
I am not sure a 5 core Delta IV Heavy would be much less safe than the Saturn IB or Saturn V.  Although, I guess the 4 extra cores could present a probelm as compared to having them all inside the same booster body.

Offline tnphysics

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1072
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #30 on: 04/15/2008 03:08 AM »
Quote
kraisee - 13/4/2008  8:26 PM

Yeah, there are easy ways to go down the DIRECT path and still miss the sweet spot.

It all depends on the philosophy underlying the decision-making process.   Starting with Jupiter-120 and trying to re-develop it into J-232 is the wrong way to o it.   Design J-232 first and then fly that in J-120 configuration is the correct way and saves billions.

Ross.

Actually, even then their are pitfalls, e.g. only putting the container for the avionics on the upper stage, leaving the J-120 without guidance.

Offline kraisee

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10408
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #31 on: 04/15/2008 03:11 AM »
Quote
rsp1202 - 14/4/2008  7:24 PM

Quote
kraisee - 14/4/2008  3:51 PM
Of course we now have a certain "have to retire to spend more time with my family" Scott Doc Horowitz lining himself up to become administrator after Griffin.

I raised this specter on L2 over a month ago, but only as a joke. I should have realized it as a sign of the apocalypse.

I know.   I saw your post about a week after learning it myself, but I couldn't talk about it at the time.   Just sat there biting my tongue :)

You couldn't write a sit-com as bizarre as the Ares mess.   It's like Monty Python is in charge of NASA right now.   Actually, come to think of it, Monty Python might be more effective...   They successfully made all their projects (tv shows, films & live performances) work...

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline kraisee

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10408
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #32 on: 04/15/2008 03:18 AM »
Quote
tnphysics - 14/4/2008  11:08 PM

Actually, even then their are pitfalls, e.g. only putting the container for the avionics on the upper stage, leaving the J-120 without guidance.

Like Ares, there will be an IU containing all the systems required.   In our designs it is essentially integrated into the 2.0m tall 8.4m diameter Fwd Skirt visible on both units.   A "ring" with the equipment boxes would be bolted inside the skirt depending on LV configuration.

It will fit on top of either the Core Stage or the Upper Stage.   Certain avionics boxes would be 'left out' if not flying with the U/S, but the IU's would ideally be made on the same production line (although trades still need to prove this concept).

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline Steven Pietrobon

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12051
  • Adelaide, Australia
    • Steven Pietrobon's Space Archive
  • Liked: 2633
  • Likes Given: 380
RE: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #33 on: 04/15/2008 04:48 AM »
I voted yes. I think its likely a Democrat will be the next president, that there will be a new administrator, and Ares-I will become Ares-II aka Jupiter-120.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Takalok

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 146
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #34 on: 04/15/2008 01:10 PM »
Quote
kraisee - 14/4/2008  6:55 PM
Those bigger 5-core or even 7-core Delta-IV's aren't safe enough because they are too complicated.   There's too much on them to go wrong.   I've heard assessments saying 1 in 10 losses for some of them.

Ross.
Ah, but you see, that's the rational response to a visceral reaction.  

But, since you bring it up, I'm quite curious has to what kind of hybrid / derived vehicle will be forthcoming from ULA.  A few years down the road, after everyone's settled in, I expect the blend of technologies should produce something pretty awesome.
Life is what happens while you're waiting for tomorrow.

Offline William Barton

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3487
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #35 on: 04/15/2008 02:11 PM »
I voted yes, but with certain caveats. Whoever wins the election (and lets not forget the Congressional election too!), the tripwire is probably the Ares I-X launch. If it fails, there well be a big flap, to put it mildly. Imagine McCain's reaction, if he is president? If it fails, the end of STS will be little more than a year away, and the choices will be one of a) end the US government manned space program, b) proceed with ESAS anyway, c) fund COTS and hope for the best, or d) find some quick alternative to ESAS. If it's that last, something resembling DIRECT is the most obvious path. It doesn't necessarily have to be the exact Jupiter 120/232 paradigm presented, just some STS/EELV hybrid like Ares V, but smaller.  They could, for example, pretend they never heard of DIRECT, and come up with an ET with three RS-68s, two 4seg RSRMs, and an upper stage with six RL-10s. There are a lot of things arguing against such an LV (high LOC/LOM numbers, due to complexity, if nothing else), and one very big thing arguing in favor of it: It more or less already exists in its various components, and Orion would wind up being the long pole. I used such a vehicle in a story I published a while back (calling it Delta V, as usual). I hadn't found out about DIRECT at the time, or I would've had my astronauts using Jupiter 232 as their CaLV (they used falcon 9 for CLV). If Ares I-X fails, heads (and LVs) will most likely roll.

Offline brihath

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 864
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #36 on: 04/15/2008 03:17 PM »
I voted yes.  Although I can't say that with much certainty, IMO the idea has merit and it looks as though the Direct Team has done a lot of homework on the concept.  The barriers are both political and institutional, but ideas generated from those closest to the process have been adopted before when they have merit, such as Houbolt's LOR concept.  Call me an optimist, but it could happen again.

  • Guest
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #37 on: 04/15/2008 05:37 PM »
The problem with being a plan B is that you never get a fair chance. The virtue of being a plan B is that you don't need it when plan A bites the dust.

Offline tnphysics

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1072
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #38 on: 04/15/2008 11:19 PM »
It should, and will if we get a new NASA Admin.

Offline gladiator1332

  • Mike Majeski
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2428
  • Raleigh, NC
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Will Direct ever become anything other than a powerpoint?
« Reply #39 on: 04/16/2008 08:52 AM »
I should clarify, I voted no assuming the current climate is the way things remain. If NASA forgets politics and wants to actually go with the most logical solution, then I think DIRECT has a shot in hell. It's just going to take an administration change first.

Tags: