« Last post by llanitedave on Today at 12:27 AM »
Interestingly, only 2.3% think they won't get any cores returned in 2015... That seems low, IMO. I voted for 2, but I think 0 has at least a 10% chance. (though I think this is a case where most people think they'll probably succeed a few times, but not that such success is guaranteed... People have a similar idea of the distribution..)
I could easily see them decide to recover every stage that they can, since that's got to be millions of dollars worth of hardware (and they can at least reuse the legs and fins each time!), even if refurbishment is harder than they expect. I mean, otherwise they're essentially throwing away hardware. So I voted for 2, but if they're successful on this first try with the barge (which has almost a 50% of succeeding), it could easily be 5 or 6 cores recovered.
Just because most people believe that there's a 10% chance no cores will be recovered, it doesn't follow that 10% of the people would believe that no cores will be recovered. If everybody believes there's only a 10% chance of no core recovery, then that means everybody will predict some higher number where they think the percentages are highest, and nobody will predict zero.
I think their chances of getting zero are a lot less than 10% -- that would be a major failure in their entire design philosophy, for which there's no evidence thus far.