Author Topic: The Falcon 9 (Amos-6) Elon-Fuelled Wild and Wacky Root Cause Theory Thread  (Read 217244 times)

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Cavitation is often overlooked as a source of heat and pressure, but in reality its so powerful you can (and do) get nuclear fusion as a result. (No, I'm not kidding!).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubble_fusion

The experiments that claimed to have evidence of Bubble fusion were unable to be repeated by independent groups that tried, and investigation found evidence of misconduct by the experimenter.  Today, Bubble fusion is regarded as real only by fringe groups.  Virtually all mainstream scientists agree it's pseudoscience.

I understand you weren't claiming fusion actually happened on Falcon 9, but you were still basing an argument on the idea that it works.

Offline CJ

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Cavitation is often overlooked as a source of heat and pressure, but in reality its so powerful you can (and do) get nuclear fusion as a result. (No, I'm not kidding!).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubble_fusion

The experiments that claimed to have evidence of Bubble fusion were unable to be repeated by independent groups that tried, and investigation found evidence of misconduct by the experimenter.  Today, Bubble fusion is regarded as real only by fringe groups.  Virtually all mainstream scientists agree it's pseudoscience.

I understand you weren't claiming fusion actually happened on Falcon 9, but you were still basing an argument on the idea that it works.

I stand corrected, and I'll put a note to that effect in my original post. Thank you.
I was going from memory (never a good idea) that it had been confirmed (I have seen it reported as such in scientific reports in the past, though things do change), and didn't read all of what I linked to support the notion (bad idea).

All I'm claiming for cavitation, though, is that it's enough to reach the ignition temperature of carbon fiber/resin in LOX.

I'll link an article about sonoluminesance,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonoluminescence

I do concede that this this is a "wild and wacky" hypothesis, because it's in part based on a rumor of harmonics being detected, plus it would be low probability even if so, hence why I put it in this thread, because I thought that's what it was for (to avoid cluttering the main thread) - though others seem to have decided, per their actions in this thread, that it's a second party thread. 
 

Offline S.Paulissen

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Cavitation is often overlooked as a source of heat and pressure, but in reality its so powerful you can (and do) get nuclear fusion as a result. (No, I'm not kidding!).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubble_fusion

The experiments that claimed to have evidence of Bubble fusion were unable to be repeated by independent groups that tried, and investigation found evidence of misconduct by the experimenter.  Today, Bubble fusion is regarded as real only by fringe groups.  Virtually all mainstream scientists agree it's pseudoscience.

I understand you weren't claiming fusion actually happened on Falcon 9, but you were still basing an argument on the idea that it works.

I stand corrected, and I'll put a note to that effect in my original post. Thank you.
I was going from memory (never a good idea) that it had been confirmed (I have seen it reported as such in scientific reports in the past, though things do change), and didn't read all of what I linked to support the notion (bad idea).

All I'm claiming for cavitation, though, is that it's enough to reach the ignition temperature of carbon fiber/resin in LOX.

I'll link an article about sonoluminesance,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonoluminescence

I do concede that this this is a "wild and wacky" hypothesis, because it's in part based on a rumor of harmonics being detected, plus it would be low probability even if so, hence why I put it in this thread, because I thought that's what it was for (to avoid cluttering the main thread) - though others seem to have decided, per their actions in this thread, that it's a second party thread. 
 

Sonoluminescence is nice and all but look no further than cavitation damaged propellers to illustrate cavitation derived energy. 

http://blog.pes-solutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/thermalchgo-017w2-1024x721.jpg

But, as engine/turbopump designers, I think SpaceX are quite aware of the effects of cavitation.
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Offline mvpel

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It was Boris the Animal.

It's... just... Boris.  >:(
"Ugly programs are like ugly suspension bridges: they're much more liable to collapse than pretty ones, because the way humans (especially engineer-humans) perceive beauty is intimately related to our ability to process and understand complexity. A language that makes it hard to write elegant code makes it hard to write good code." - Eric S. Raymond

Offline ChrisWilson68

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It was Boris the Animal.

It's... just... Boris.  >:(

Don't make things worse -- they're Badenov already.

Offline alamo

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What would contamination of the HE supply do? Say water contamination on the order of less than .01%? Could ice buildup in one of the helium lines and cause a problem? Is such contamination possible?
I know the following is just very stupid idea - but if the contractor supplies several He bottles and by mistake one bottle is filled with hydrogen instead of He? Would result in several percent hydrogen contamination in helium. Due to different joule-Thompson coefficient during COPV filling the gas heats up unusually, until some fitting fails. The hot gas containing hydrogen is violently mixed into LOX...

The theory is easily disproved by checking helium purity in the pad tanks. Hope they survived?
... or a cause for embrittlement cracks that could accelerate routine metal fatigue.

Offline robert_d

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That argument might or might not be true for any given theory, but you should understand the argument being made when responding to it.  Your response indicates you didn't understand the argument.

I disagree. I think we understand that you all THINK it's Tic Tac Toe. But what if the 9 squares just became 16 and A's are allowed along with the X's and O's? That there were rules you weren't even aware of?
Or to quote one of the best lines in Star Trek TOS "Not chess, Mr. Spock, poker"
As of today (09/30/16) Elon Musk is using the word "improbable".

Offline kevin-rf

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As of today (09/30/16) Elon Musk is using the word "improbable".
Inconceivable



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Offline alamo

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what Elon says, should always be seen by a large margin..
for example, "we live in a matrix"
 ;)

Offline CapitalistOppressor

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« Last Edit: 09/30/2016 11:44 pm by CapitalistOppressor »

Offline Rocket Science

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"Implication of sabotage adds intrigue to SpaceX investigation"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/economy/implication-of-sabotage-adds-intrigue-to-spacex-investigation/2016/09/30/5bb60514-874c-11e6-a3ef-f35afb41797f_story.html

So SpaceX at least has put real thought into this
Thanks for posting this, I sure would like to see those video stills...
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/t4cape.html
« Last Edit: 10/01/2016 12:14 am by Rocket Science »
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
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Offline hrissan

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"Implication of sabotage adds intrigue to SpaceX investigation"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/economy/implication-of-sabotage-adds-intrigue-to-spacex-investigation/2016/09/30/5bb60514-874c-11e6-a3ef-f35afb41797f_story.html

So SpaceX at least has put real thought into this
Thanks for posting this, I sure would like to see those video stills...
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/t4cape.html
I wonder what information would going up the roof provide?

Offline vapour_nudge

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I know who fired the gun, look for all those people who voted 8 or 9 for the number of SpaceX flights this year in the Polls section and you'll have your man in there.
Oh, hang on....



"Implication of sabotage adds intrigue to SpaceX investigation"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/economy/implication-of-sabotage-adds-intrigue-to-spacex-investigation/2016/09/30/5bb60514-874c-11e6-a3ef-f35afb41797f_story.html

So SpaceX at least has put real thought into this
Thanks for posting this, I sure would like to see those video stills...
http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/t4cape.html
I wonder what information would going up the roof provide?
Maybe they wanted to see if they could find one of these  ;D
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Offline TheTraveller

Interesting calcs on the sounds:
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/55at14/spacex_asked_to_look_at_ula_roof_which_has_field/d89e4jh

Maybe SpX wanted roof access to do a few real time ping tests from the roof and launch pad to the USLR video site?

Pre bang sounds are real. Various sound source location AFAIW are unknown. Nice analysis:
« Last Edit: 10/01/2016 11:58 am by TheTraveller »
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Offline OnWithTheShow

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My guess is some of their video showed debris shooting off that way and they wanted to check for debris and the story got twisted around.

Offline SWGlassPit

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That's much more plausible than some grassy knoll conspiracy.

Offline pobermanns

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That's much more plausible than some grassy knoll conspiracy.
It's going to be pretty hard - translate, impossible - to prove that someone tried to take out this booster. That said, I had the thought over a week ago that someone with a high-powered rifle could have hit the upper stage and triggered an explosion. I have no proof, nor do I accuse anyone of anything. BUT, it is a fact that SpaceX is pushing a business model which will out-compete those of ULA, Ariane, and maybe some others. You don't have to be a police detective to see the possible motivations and desired outcomes of that axis.

I'd like to hear what the aerospace professionals have to say about what a bullet hitting the second stage would do to the vehicle.
« Last Edit: 10/01/2016 06:57 pm by pobermanns »

Offline Rocket Science

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My guess is some of their video showed debris shooting off that way and they wanted to check for debris and the story got twisted around.
Don't say "shooting"... ;D.
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
~Rob: Physics instructor, Aviator

Offline ZachS09

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My guess is some of their video showed debris shooting off that way and they wanted to check for debris and the story got twisted around.
Don't say "shooting"... ;D.

Should be "zooming" instead of the original word.
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

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