What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?
Wow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.
Recently reelected President Santorum will yet again cut NASA's budget, they will be down to 9 Billion by 2017.Orion launched to ISS on a Delta 4 heavy to bring ISS back up to 6 crew.All CCDev are now on unpaid contracts because of zero tolerance policy instituted in 2013 budget, stating that any delay in CCDev strips the developer of all future funds (funds transferred to Orion/Delta 4 heavy to accelerate it's ability to launch to ISS) NASA Administrator Griffin releases more power points about our great Mars/Moon Program after 1st SLS launch in 2016.
Or...The arrival of New Horizons at Pluto in 2015 has reinvigorated a fickle public with renewed enthusiasm for exploring never-before-seen worlds. Humanity's first glimpse at another planetary body for the first time since Neptune in 1989 has provided a much-needed shot in the arm for 'real' exploration. If pictures from Pluto don't get people excited in wanting to return to the Moon and reaching Mars, then nothing will.A hundred years from now, our descendants will curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space.
A hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space.
Quote from: neilh on 02/27/2012 12:40 amWow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.
What has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?
- Is Orion flown to space?
- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies?
- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?
- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?
- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?
- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?
Quote from: Mark S on 02/27/2012 04:44 pmA hundred years from now? I already curse us for letting short-sighted politicians stand in the way of our destiny in space. Well maybe we should start cursing SF writers and Hollywood filmmakers for giving us false and unrealistic expectations about our "destiny" instead...
Quote from: woods170 on 02/27/2012 08:23 amQuote from: neilh on 02/27/2012 12:40 amWow, this is one of the most depressing threads I've seen in a while.Wow, this is one of the most pointless threads I've seen in a while.I'd go further, but I'd have to ban myself
By 2017, all members of NSF will have been created their own subforums, where they can post their opinions in peace and harmony.
It's difficult to predict what is going to work six months from now much less five years away. I've made my own five year predictions every year since 1969 and learned that it's a futile exercise at best.
* Due to absolute and overwhelming public incomprehension, MPCV has been re-named Orion; NASA PAO reluctantly admits that it was nearly impossible to get anyone outside the agency to use the MPCV name;
Forgive me for failing to be a prophet of doom here, but there are other instances from the past where, five years into the future, things actually turned out good:
1956 - scepticism about the chance of putting a satellite into space, much less a man: but within five years it happened
1959 - the first Earth satellites are newly arrived in Earth orbit: within five years, the first robotic mission would venture as far afield as Mars
1964 - seemed doubtful that the US would achieve a manned lunar landing within five years: but it happened
1976 - no Americans in space for a year and the Shuttle mired in technical difficulties: but it flew in 1981
1993 - Space Station Freedom close to cancellation: but was rescoped and First Eelement Launch took place in 1998
2002 - No immediate plans for a Shuttle successor or any manned BEO effort: the Columbia accident changed that and by 2005 the first 'real' plans to venture beyond the Solar System were taking shape.
Yeah, Things kinda have a habit of working out for the best, eventually!
Its speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...
Quote from: Avariel on 03/03/2012 02:48 pmIts speculative fiction time again? I think this time I'm going to go for something a bit darker...In 2017 NASA is in the process of being restructured after the new President announced the cancellation of STS and a five year moratorium on all human spaceflight while a committee assesses the future for American space exploration.The international partners were, needless to say, somewhat dismayed at the decision to 'temporarily mothball' the International Space Station, but with the war in Iran hotting up resources are needed elsewhere.Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...Wow I think I don't like this game any more
- Stratolaunch runs out of funds and goes away without launching anything.
Glad you see that it's a game, but such things do cut both ways. Yoda said it well:"When you look at the dark side, careful you must be. For the dark side looks back."
Meanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...
Quote from: Avariel on 03/03/2012 02:48 pmMeanwhile the financial scandal surrounding SpaceX continues to make headlines with investors and customers upset over huge hidden losses and broken satellite launch contracts. Many point to the spectacular launch failure of the Falcon Heavy as the day the dream went sour for Elon Musk...As speculation goes, this has a pretty good probability of happening.It's inevitable that one of the NeuSpace companies has a major anomaly [tm] -- Orbital was able to weather it's anomaly -- putting the OCO at the bottom of the ocean -- because it's a strange mix of an old and new space company, and was able to handle the aftermath of that one.But do any of the other NeuSpace companies have that kind of internal experience and leadership at the top to manage what happens after said Major Anomaly?
But SpaceX does have the experience and leadership to manage launch failures. They had three quite major failures right at the beginning with Falcon 1, and still survived after all! They haven't had a major failure since then.
I make my own guesses, in 2017...- SLS is being developed but has gone through modifications and there's two years delay, so now the inaugural flight is set to 2019- Orion has flown to LEO with Delta IV Heavy (unmanned) in 2016- First man in suborbit in 2014, tourist flights started in 2015- Commercial lunar flyby is still five years away (unfortunately)- Spacex has just started to fly people to the ISS- FH maiden flight happened in mid 2014, the rocket is available to order but no other flights have happened- Stratolaunch is estimated to fly in 2019
A method for making carbon nanotubes will have been developed by 2017.At least one form of fusion (polywell, or that one where they crush a can of deuterium or something else) will have demonstrated net power by 2017.
Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pmWhat has happened in human space flight after five years, in 2017?- Is SLS still developed? When is the estimated first launch? Or has it happened already?SLS canceled after development becoming bloated with mission creep and NASA top-heavy management causing huge cost overruns and schedule delays, once Congress FINALLY gets it that there's no mission for it without payloads they're unwilling to pay for. "Something else" takes its place to keep the checks flowing to the space state contractors. Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pm- Is Orion flown to space?Orion flies unmanned on D4H but then?? In limbo-- too big and expensive for LEO/crew transport, no money forthcoming for anything else... looking more and more like cancelation bait...Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pm- Are commercial suborbital flights ongoing? By which company/companies? Commercial suborbital hops lose most of their customer base after a highly publicized accident results in one of the vehicles digging a substantial crater in the Mojave desert... Billionaires decide its better to be alive than dead and decide its more fun to take another vacation in the Riveira with lots of bimbos and enjoy being alive and rich. Suborbital lingers for a few diehards but it's nothing more than a very expensive fad or stunt... Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pm- What's the status of manned lunar flyby?"Officially" the plan is still for a manned lunar flyby "at some point in the 2020's" and is used for justification for a follow on vehicle after SLS becomes bloated and is canceled. BUT everybody realizes it's pretty much smoke and mirrors to get more development funding to the contractors, and not likely to happen, especially with NASA's periodically falling and otherwise flat budgets, with inflation eating deeply into that. Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pm- Have commercial crew flights happened? By which companies?Commercial crew still limping along, but slowly due to anemic funding by NASA and hostility in Congress. Field is down to ULA CST-100 and SpaceX manned Dragon. Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pm- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?Nearing completion and perhaps will have a test flight in the next year or so... if things hold. Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pm- Stratolaunch? Has it flown or when is the estimated first flight in 2017?Stratolaunch abandoned after serious analysis of the design, development, construction, and operational difficulties are analyzed in depth... If I *really* wanted to be negative-- In 2019, ISS is facing a situation much like Mir-- it's starting to fall apart. With no shuttle available to launch large replacement parts, stop-gaps and band-aid "work arounds" have been keeping it patched together but its clear its days are numbered. Europe is in dire straights financially, as is the US, and Russia can barely keep their Soyuz program going in rickety fashion. US commercial/ European resupply keeping things going, but band-aids on top of band-aids only works so long. "Research" aboard ISS pretty much seen as an abysmal failure-- a case of "build it and *nobody* came, a situation not helped by lack of transport. In late 2019 ISS suffers a collision with space junk and is holed, and after a couple desperate missions cobbled together with Soyuz hauling crews up and parts sent up by ATV/HTV/Dragon, ISS repairs fail and the station is abandoned and deorbited. As regional wars and resource problems and economic upheavals continue to sap the abilities of the space powers, and with no "anchor tenant" in ISS to keep things moving, LEO becomes a pretty quiet place. China suffers the loss of a manned spacecraft in 2020 and due to reordering of their economy in the latest economic implosion rocking the world, the US, China, and Russia quietly abandon manned spaceflight and divert the resources elsewhere to more pressing needs... "officially" a few lingering, underfunded programs remain to keep up appearances, but with no money for deep space exploration and increasing hostility towards "government waste" it's becoming hard to justify to the general populations of Earth. "Commercial manned spaceflight" dies with the loss of ISS and no forthcoming anchor tenant or gov't funding, and no "real need" demonstrated by industry to fund it. Commercial cargo/launch limps along on satellite launch capabilities... JWST cost overruns and mismanagement sours support for big-budget flagship programs, in the increasingly unstable economic conditions and worldwide austerity. JWST FINALLY gets launched in 2018, but suffers a humiliating failure and never operates, poisoning support for such grandiose and expensive missions. Smaller, less ambitious missions are all that get approved or funded. I guess if I wanted to be optimistic, I'd say: SLS shifts gears a few times, runs overbudget and slips its schedule due to mission creep and funding cuts, but continues because Congress wants SOMETHING and nothing else is evident. Orion continues slowly though manned flights won't occur until 2020 at the earliest. ICPS can send it around the moon, but CPS funding has faltered and development is in limbo, future uncertain. No payloads being funded so what it's all for, who knows... ISS being serviced by commercial launches, ATV/HTV, and Soyuz. Commercial crew coming along, perhaps 2018, but most likely slip to 2019 due to unforeseen difficulties similar to those seen at the beginning of the commercial resupply flights, and inadequate funding. ISS "aging gracefully" and minor problems have been fixed, but she's starting to show her age. Irregardless, it's the only destination for the foreseeable future, so ISS extended to 2028, possibly 2030 (of course it is falling apart by that time just like Mir, but nobody will admit it as voices call for it to be extended to 2035, finally reality hits home when after a long happy life ISS suffers an unrecoverable problem and is deorbited in 2029). Russia limping along on a Soyuz replacement, but little funding delays the effort. China still flying about once per year to their man-tended space stations. US plans still up in the air-- there's plans aplenty but little funding. Officially the US is going to Mars, in 2050. Study and research continue, and a few "demonstration" programs are approved and ongoing, but far from an operational system. Suborbital flights never more than an expensive fad or stunt. Dries up by 2020. Plans for orbital commercial spaceflight still touted, but nothing solid until commercial crew is demonstrated... IOW, pretty much more of the same... Later! OL JR
By the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).
I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up.
Quote from: A_M_Swallow on 02/25/2012 10:15 pmBy the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)
Quote from: TakeOff on 10/09/2017 07:21 amI couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up.Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all).
Quote from: TakeOff on 10/09/2017 07:21 amQuote from: A_M_Swallow on 02/25/2012 10:15 pmBy the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)A reusable lunar lander has to be garaged somewhere between missions. Putting a heat shield on a mass critical lunar lander is silly so it cannot return to Earth. The options are low lunar orbit (LLO), Lagrange point or LEO. The Orion has difficulties performing the Earth to LLO return trip but can reach the Lagrange points.Delta-v Spacestation to lunar surface in km/sSpacestationSingleReturnLLO1.873.74Lagrange2.825.64LEO5.9311.86
Quote from: A_M_Swallow on 10/09/2017 08:55 amQuote from: TakeOff on 10/09/2017 07:21 amQuote from: A_M_Swallow on 02/25/2012 10:15 pmBy the end of December 2017:c. People lobbying to get an EML-1/2 spacestation (so Orion has a destination).What a great prediction! You foresaw the Deep Space Gateway, the lobbying for which has really has to be taken seriously now.It is the more impressive since the DSG is so totally meaningless and bad in every respect, that I couldn't believe it or even understand that it was a real proposal the first times I heard of it, I could never have made that thing up. No one has ever suggested a cis-Lunar space station as the first step to interplanetary HSF. But you seem to know the game. You realized that the Orion and SLS need to look useful and the DSG is perfect for that, so it was a political necessity already 5 years ago, although not much talked about in public until this year or last AFAIK. (Though, someone gave me hope by saying that it is a left over from the former administration and won't fly.)A reusable lunar lander has to be garaged somewhere between missions. Putting a heat shield on a mass critical lunar lander is silly so it cannot return to Earth. The options are low lunar orbit (LLO), Lagrange point or LEO. The Orion has difficulties performing the Earth to LLO return trip but can reach the Lagrange points.Delta-v Spacestation to lunar surface in km/sSpacestationSingleReturnLLO1.873.74Lagrange2.825.64LEO5.9311.86Why use a reusable Lunar lander when not using a reusable Earth lander, although they are available already a decade or so before the DSG? And is a Lunar surface mission part of the DSG? How would that work given the costs of launching SLS and Orion to the DSG once a year? The crew can only stay there for a few weeks a year, right? So it cannot replace the ISS. This makes for three big HSF missions for NASA to finance simultaneously: ISS, DSG and a Lunar surface mission. That won't happen.I thought you predicted the DSG because you're politically savvy.
Note: Sending a black woman on the third manned landing should make headlines around the world.
"Well... it's certainly not as silly as going all the way to Mars to operate rovers on the surface in real time from orbit - yes, this has been suggested, and the idea has been borrowed for the deep space gateway (which makes no sense at all)."Apollo 10 - style rehearsal mission spends time at Mars doing that teleoperation, getting some valuable science without doing a human Mars landing on the first mission. Next mission - go to the surface. That's not silly, it makes very good sense. Now do the same at the Moon as one step to human moon landings and as a rehearsal of what will happen at Mars. It's sense all the way. Much more sensible than going full up from ISS to human Mars landings in one step. Now THAT's silly!
Well, that was all very predictable! Now we need predictions for 2018!
Plus now AI is much more advanced than it used to be, and is in a much better position to meet the demands of semi-autonomy for time-delays in lunar operations.
This thread is a kick to go back and read. I think it is interesting that no one predicted that SpaceX would both fail more (2 RUD's) and succeed more (17 booster recoveries, heading to 20 flights this year), nor that we would still be waiting for Falcon Heavy.
Quote from: baddux on 02/25/2012 05:05 pm- Falcon Heavy, how many flights has it flown?Nearing completion and perhaps will have a test flight in the next year or so... if things hold.