Author Topic: Predictions for 2011  (Read 23263 times)

Offline Space Pete

Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #60 on: 12/30/2011 11:44 AM »
Right, let's go through mine:

From an ISS perspective (as is always the case with me ;D), I think we'll see the following:

Both HTV & ATV berthed to ISS simultaneously.

Correct! 1 point.

The first Dragon berthing to ISS.

Incorrect! 0 points.

The formal completion of the USOS following STS-134.

Correct! 1 point.

STS-135, the return of PMA-3, and the subsequent formal completion of the Shuttle program.

Correct, bar PMA-3. Call it 0.75 of a point.

So it total that's 2.75 out of 4. Have tried to be more bold with my 2012 predictions. :D
NASASpaceflight ISS Editor

Online Bubbinski

Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #61 on: 01/01/2012 07:15 AM »
Well here's how I made out:

- STS-133, 134, and 135 all fly successful missions to close out the shuttle program.

RIGHT - that did happen.

- Dragon gets COTS 2 and 3 approved as a "conditional" single flight dependent on meeting certain goals to go all the way to the ISS.  The flight itself goes well and Dragon becomes an operational vessel.

HALF RIGHT - COTS 2/3 approved.  Flight pushed into 2012, though.

- SLS becomes something like the Jupiter 130, 4 seg SRB's and no upperstage for now with upperstage and 5 seg SRB's as future options, as Congress wants to at least make a passing effort to cut spending.

HALF RIGHT - 70 ton SLS will be initial vehicle.  However it will have 5 seg SRB's and an upper stage will also be developed (CPS).  130 ton still in the plan.

- Budget is flattish, some programs get cut (climate science, cheapest shuttle derived SLS only, future planetary mission maybe axed, etc.)

HALF RIGHT - budget did indeed get a cut but no big mission axings.  Yet.

- Commercial crew approved, with one spacecraft only, probably Dragon as it's actually flying.

NOT RIGHT - CCDev 2 has multiple proposals. 

- Orbital Taurus/Cygnus fly successfully.

NOT RIGHT - Neither has left launch pad.

- Mars Rover Opportunity arrives at Endeavour Crater and finds something that will radically rewrite the textbooks - I will be very bold and say a fossil find.

HALF RIGHT - Oppy did arrive at Endeavour Crater and found gypsum.  But no fossils.

- Mars Rover Spirit will not revive.

RIGHT - unfortunately.

- Another "earth analog" will be found that will be much closer to the "holy grail".

RIGHT - Kepler 22b.

- Virgin Galactic gets SpaceShipTwo to past the 100KM mark by end of year.  Another private space company will fly something past there as well.

NOT RIGHT - no private company got a crewed spacecraft past 100KM.  But I think or at least hope that will be different in 2012.

- Juno and Curiosity both successfully launch and will be well on their way.

RIGHT - both of them are well on their way!

- And on a personal level I will finally get off the schneid and finish some major shuttle models I want to build before the program ends.  I'll get either a "six pack" of shuttles done or a 1/144 shuttle docked to a fully finished ISS.  I will have at least something really good to show in the NSF NASA modeling thread.

- HALF RIGHT - I ran into a big setback with my shuttle six pack and didn't get an ISS done.  But I made up for it with my 1/72 shuttle Atlantis (on landing gear) and Apollo CSM.  They're in the NASA modeling thread.

- I will also try to make one of the final shuttle launches in FL though it is not guaranteed.

RIGHT - I bought tickets and everything, booked motel, the works.  But a death in my family kept me from making it on April 29th.  Which meant I missed a scrub.
« Last Edit: 01/01/2012 07:16 AM by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Predictions for 2011
« Reply #62 on: 01/02/2012 01:24 PM »
- no lunar landing will occur, making it 35 years since last one
- no suborbital RLVs will fly to space
- average price per kg to orbit will not change significantly
- squabbling over destinations in space and launchers to get there will continue on various forums, without much serious discussion about the "why go to space in the first place?" question

Not that its worth anything, but if you predict negatives, it's easy to get them all correct.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft