Author Topic: Hurricane Irma  (Read 127777 times)

Offline sanman

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #20 on: 09/04/2017 10:20 pm »
Gee, this is turning into a nail-biter -- it's already a Category 4, and looks increasingly likely to hit Florida:




There's even the possibility of it going into the Gulf and hitting somewhere the Gulf coast. Ouch.


That other Tropical Depression that's farther back may potentially be named Tropical Storm Jose, and has an 80% chance of developing into a hurricane in the next 5 days.
« Last Edit: 09/04/2017 10:24 pm by sanman »


Offline wolfpack

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #22 on: 09/04/2017 11:33 pm »
Generator madness is in full swing here even in NC.

Online Lee Jay

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #23 on: 09/05/2017 01:02 am »
Up to category 4 already with sustained winds of 140mph and a central pressure of 943mb, with further strengthening expected over the next 48 hours.  Sounds like a good time to be somewhere else.

Offline timverhoeven

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #24 on: 09/05/2017 07:50 am »
The pressure is already down to 939 mbar and the NHC excepts it to strengthen even more to 150 mph winds. So we are getting close to Cat. 5 wind levels. Current models see the track going Florida from south to north, making landfall somewhere Saturday evening/night.

So SpaceX & Co. better make sure that the OTV-5 gets going in the coming days or else they may be grounded for a while. People in Florida should start making preparations because this is going to be a big one.

(Images from: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ )
« Last Edit: 09/05/2017 08:21 am by timverhoeven »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #25 on: 09/05/2017 08:52 am »
Almost Cat 5 now:

Quote
NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 2m2 minutes ago

Hurricane #Irma Advisory 24: Dangerous Hurricane Irma Heading For the Leeward Islands With 150 Mph Winds. http://go.usa.gov/W3H

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/904989495640064000

Latest advisory direct link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/050846.shtml

Offline Rebel44

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #26 on: 09/05/2017 12:23 pm »
https://twitter.com/ErinThomasWx/status/905037550733193216

Category 5
Maximum sustained winds are 150 knots (175 mph; 280 km/h), with gusts to 185 knots (215 mph; 345 km/h)
« Last Edit: 09/05/2017 12:42 pm by Rebel44 »

Online Lee Jay

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #27 on: 09/05/2017 12:55 pm »
The models now put Irma over south Florida in the early-to-mid Monday time frame (GFS has it right on top of the Cape).  Still 6 days out so a lot can change.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #28 on: 09/05/2017 12:59 pm »
For reference, Matthew only peaked last year at 165mph...
« Last Edit: 09/05/2017 12:59 pm by Orbiter »
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #29 on: 09/05/2017 01:15 pm »
Quote
NWS Miami ‏Verified account @NWSMiami 17m17 minutes ago

8 AM Update: Hurricane Irma is now a category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph.

https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/905052280159862784

Offline Norm38

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #30 on: 09/05/2017 02:14 pm »
I'm really worried about the Keys.  We went down there for vacation in 2013 before my son was born and loved it.  Took the day sail out to the Dry Tortugas and saw the old fort, stayed at the Southernmost.  Wonder how well all of that will ride through.
The Dolphin Research Center said if a hurricane comes through they let all the dolphins loose and let them ride out the storm on their own, and they always come back.  Looks like they'll be doing that again.

Offline timverhoeven

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #31 on: 09/05/2017 03:04 pm »
From the latest NHC forecast update (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml) :

Quote
A peak SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records.

Irma has grown to a real monster of a storm. I'm waiting for the results of the latest ECMWF runs to hopefully get a better idea on the track over Florida, But all the current models point to Irma passing over the Florida keys and before making landfall in South Florida and bassically crossing the complete state back towards the Atlantic ocean. And this probably still as a Cat. 4 strom. This isn't looking good.

Offline AncientU

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #32 on: 09/05/2017 04:06 pm »
180mph now... gusts to 220mph.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2017 04:26 pm by AncientU »
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Offline IanThePineapple

Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #33 on: 09/05/2017 04:26 pm »
I'm watching the Weather Channel, its speeds at Florida landfall are only rising, they're about 140-150 now, they were 120-130 yesterday. Puerto Rico landfall will be about a Cat 4, possibly (and hopefully) lower.

Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #34 on: 09/05/2017 04:27 pm »
Generators, water and other storm related goodies are already sold out across Orlando. This isn't our first rodeo, so people prepare well and early.

Hopefully this goes the way of Floyd and bounces off somehow. Worst case scenario is not great though.

Offline sanman

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #35 on: 09/05/2017 04:58 pm »
With Irma so close, British Virgin Islands are unavoidably in its path, and will likely get hit with the Category 5 force before the storm has a chance to drop in strength.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2017 04:59 pm by sanman »

Offline timverhoeven

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #36 on: 09/05/2017 05:29 pm »
From https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905116582518693889

Quote
HWRF 12z suggests continued intensification of Hurricane #Irma to 909 mb north of Puerto Rico. Winds of 200-knots at 900-mb.

If that really happens, that who knows what the people in Florida might see rolling in. HWRF is the NOAA hurricane prediction model, btw.

Online ulm_atms

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #37 on: 09/05/2017 05:53 pm »
With Irma so close, British Virgin Islands are unavoidably in its path, and will likely get hit with the Category 5 force before the storm has a chance to drop in strength.

I went of vacation to Tortola, BVI this past January.  Man...I could retire there...except now I would be hauling my butt anywhere else.  When I saw Irma's track a few days ago, I was like...please no...

All the models weren't showing it this strong but looking at the data, I knew all the model runs were way on the low side with the forecasted conditions and SSTs that were in front of it...and my college degree was in Atmospheric Sciences so I at least know what all the information means.  I have a friend that is a hurricane hunter (flies the plane's through the storms).  He told me two things 2 days ago.  1.  The storm was intensifying so fast the turbulence through the storm was the worse he had ever been through (first time he threw up) and 2.  That the national hurricane center was using the models for the "official" track/intensity but pretty much everyone knew that the intensity was on the conservative side for the past few days.

My prayers for everyone in the way of this thing...it is a monster.


Offline Norm38

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #38 on: 09/05/2017 05:54 pm »
Irma is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record.

Offline Rebel44

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Re: Hurricane Irma
« Reply #39 on: 09/05/2017 06:00 pm »
Irma is now the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record.
Not yet - recorded sustained wind for Atlantic hurricane was 190mph during hurricane Allen in 1980

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