Now that SpaceX is heading full-steam into demonstrating recovery of the first-stage, I was wondering whether there might be potential for current competitors to "quickly" develop similar first-stage recovery capability? E.g. perhaps adding retro-rockets and attempting a water recovery? And if it is not possible to adapt any existing LVs, what kind of vehicles might arise to compete with SpaceX in the longer term, and by who? (e.g. will it be any of the "old boys" or new space?) If these are silly questions then may I ask, what's the space launch industry going to look like in the next 5-10 years if SpaceX is successful? Who will try to directly compete with SpaceX?
Don't know why this thread keeps expanding. The answer is obvious, it is OSC, ULA, Boeing, LM, Arianespace, Energia, Krunichev, Blue Origin, SNC, etc. The base assumption that Spacex is taking over the market is just wrong.
Overall, SpaceX has taken market share away from nearly everyone in the business over the last two years.
Arianespace did not loose half of the High-end commercial market: they still have 50+% of gto market with Ariane 5 dual launches (market now Shared with spaceX instead of ILS) and they dominate the non-GTO market as well with Soyuz and Vega allowing them to launch once a month on a continuous Basis. All this with a far smaller institutional demand than SpaceX or ULA.
Quote from: Mike Jones on 02/27/2016 09:16 pmArianespace did not loose half of the High-end commercial market: they still have 50+% of gto market with Ariane 5 dual launches (market now Shared with spaceX instead of ILS) and they dominate the non-GTO market as well with Soyuz and Vega allowing them to launch once a month on a continuous Basis. All this with a far smaller institutional demand than SpaceX or ULA.Ariane 5 had 12 competed satellites + 1 undisclosed + 2 non-competedSpaceX had 14 competed satellites + possibly the Iridium Next launch in July (if the contract was signed last year)Atlas V had 1 competed satelliteILS (Proton) had 1 competed satelliteSo Ariane 5 had 41 - 45% of the GEO market.See the SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis thread for details.
Overall, SpaceX has taken market share away from nearly everyone in the business over the last two years. What do the next two years look to reveal -- more of the same or end of the SpaceX market share growth?
ULA and Ariane can definitely compete against SpaceX in the near term. Luckily, the launch market is still growing. I don't think SpaceX is likely to catch up with their launch manifest until 2 years from now, possibly slightly longer. SpaceX is likely to launch more every year, however, and eventually will squeeze ULA and Ariane.
...which I addressed. Did you read my post or just skim it and respond to the jist?
Roscosmos: Rocket reusability’s the future, but we can compete with SpaceX nowby Peter B. de Selding | Jul 4, 2017PARIS — The head of Russia’s space agency on July 4 said Russia will remain commercially competitive in launch services by cutting prices of a newly designed rocket by 20% — the same reduction he expects to see from SpaceX’s reusable Falcon 9. [...]
Could you please provide a short summary of Roscosmos' views ?
- Says 20-odd launch contract with OneWeb shows their still competitive
Quote from: Mike Jones on 07/04/2017 06:03 pmCould you please provide a short summary of Roscosmos' views ?They plan to compete with SpaceX using new rocket, Soyuz-5. First flight is expected in 2022.
Quote from: AncientU on 02/27/2016 08:59 pmOverall, SpaceX has taken market share away from nearly everyone in the business over the last two years. ULA hasn't lost any to Spacex yet.