Author Topic: Private Moon Landing in the works?  (Read 152794 times)

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #200 on: 11/22/2012 10:32 pm »
{snip}

At $800M per mission price where the lander operator purchases transport to and from LLO from SpaceX for example and also a EDS that is used as tanker and crasher stage to enable the lander to reach and return from the surface it keeps them focused on the development of the primary item that will make the business work and that is the manned lander. The operator would pay SpaceX $440M per mission for the 2 EDS and crew transport to and return from LLO. They would also rent space in a Bigelow habitat at LLO. In all they could make in profit as much as $185M per mission (they are a reseller of the SpaceX transportation and they make a profit on that as well since without them SpaceX would not be doing as much cis-lunar flight business making the lander operator a mission integrator).

Note mission here is being used as a placeholder for a single from Earth to Lunar surface and back transportation service to deliver 4 people to LLO and 2 of those to the Lunar surface.
{snip}

If the lunar base is at one of the poles then the LLO spacestation will have to be in a polar orbit.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #201 on: 11/22/2012 10:42 pm »

Pretty much agree, with the additional observation that replicating an Apollo landing, or even building a four to six person base is also a problem awaiting only an engineering solution.

Also awaiting a funding solution.

Good point.  I totally missed that one.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline simonbp

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #202 on: 11/22/2012 10:49 pm »
I'm dubious of a LLO station. The moon has a very lumpy gravity field, so you can't orbit too close without needing lots of station-keeping delta v. Likewise, if you raise the orbit high enough that the lunar gravity field is smooth, you get so far that perturbations from the Earth (and Sun) again add lots of station-keeping delta v. L1 and L2 also need station-keeping, but much lower amounts of delta v. Halo orbits around L4 and L5 (or circulating between them) are the only naturally stable orbits that are close to the Moon in delta v space.
« Last Edit: 11/22/2012 10:50 pm by simonbp »

Offline simonbp

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #203 on: 11/22/2012 10:52 pm »
Probably the best case for mining the Moon is to not actually mine the Moon. Rather, it would be find economically valuable asteroids and put them on trajectories that would impact the Moon at extremely slow velocities ...

Hadn't really heard this suggestion before.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_Zero_Two

There are probably other sci fi stories that use it, but this (specifically the MST3k version) is what springs mind... ;)

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #204 on: 11/22/2012 10:53 pm »
{snip}

At $800M per mission price where the lander operator purchases transport to and from LLO from SpaceX for example and also a EDS that is used as tanker and crasher stage to enable the lander to reach and return from the surface it keeps them focused on the development of the primary item that will make the business work and that is the manned lander. The operator would pay SpaceX $440M per mission for the 2 EDS and crew transport to and return from LLO. They would also rent space in a Bigelow habitat at LLO. In all they could make in profit as much as $185M per mission (they are a reseller of the SpaceX transportation and they make a profit on that as well since without them SpaceX would not be doing as much cis-lunar flight business making the lander operator a mission integrator).

Note mission here is being used as a placeholder for a single from Earth to Lunar surface and back transportation service to deliver 4 people to LLO and 2 of those to the Lunar surface.
{snip}

If the lunar base is at one of the poles then the LLO spacestation will have to be in a polar orbit.

Yes, which is one of the tradeoffs due tousing hypergolic propelants. Use of higher energy (higher ISP) propelants would allow for the use of EML1/2 for approcimately the same incremental per mission costs but would have a much higher development costs due to the need of cryo depot technologies. Higher development will cause the price to go up since development costs must be recovered in a private business case.

So for the first venture without an established EML1/2 station and no fielded cryo depots using a lunar polar LLO only reachable practically one every 28 days with a at most 1 week stay time before you have to return or there is a requirement for more delt V than what is capable with the on-board propelant. Aditional margins for TEI so that first going into a high lunar orbit allowing for a plane change to then head back to Earth maybe a solution but that adds weight.

There are advantages and disadvantages in every solution and the ability to reach the lunar poles is the greatest disadvantage of using LLO as the redevous point for the Earth and Lunar transportation segments.

Offline RocketmanUS

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #205 on: 11/22/2012 11:24 pm »
Station or depot in LLO?

A depot would be of lower dry mass and use less propellent to keep it's needed orbit.

If it stores hypergolics then it could be possible for the Orion to add propellent for the return home.

Depot to store hypergolics for Orion. For incoming cargo from Earth to be placed on the Lunar surface by a reusable lander. Cargo is brought to LLO depot from LEO, EDS for TLI and a stage ( modified Lunar lander, shorter tanks and no landing gear ) to take the cargo to LLO depot. Stage once delivers the cargo to depot then disposes it's self to space. Cargo is then picked up by reusable lander from Lunar surface.

Depot could be a modified ESA ATV ( no pressurized crew area, propulsion unit and docking port or other means for propellent transfer ) with robotic arm(s) and boom to store cargo till it is picked up.

EML1/2 gateway could be in place before or after.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #206 on: 11/23/2012 12:04 am »
Reusable cargo landers.  The financial viability of these needs checking.  With ISRU propellant they should work.  With fuel coming from Earth the accountants will have to do some detailed sums.

Offline Danderman

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #207 on: 11/23/2012 01:03 am »
Gentlemen:

This thread is NOT about the optimal architecture for a lunar base, or where to put your propellant depot. It is about a potential actual company that may or may not be planning some sort of lunar mission.

Please keep your comments to the data about this company, not your plans to mine the Moon.

For example, if one of the principals at "Golden Spike" has written a paper about some aspects of lunar mining, please dig it up and give us the reference.

As always, your ideas about lunar business can go in the appropriate thread, just not this one.  In the interim, please try not to expound HERE on your plans, rather, please inform us what you know about their plans.
« Last Edit: 11/23/2012 01:04 am by Danderman »

Offline KelvinZero

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #208 on: 11/23/2012 04:46 am »
This summarizes the thread nicely for me.. ;)



Offline Comga

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #209 on: 11/23/2012 06:04 am »
The question is whether a possible (most likely secondary) motive is the desire to beat the Chinese back to the Moon. The idea being that if NASA cannot/will not do it, they had better do it themselves for the sake of God and Country.

The answer is: who knows? We would have to ask Diamandis whether that keeps him up at night. I'm guessing probably not.

Really, the motivation is spelled out in Peter's Laws:

http://www.diamandis.com/peters-laws/

The answer is he wants to go to the Moon, and he realizes the only way that's going to happen is if he makes it happen himself, by hook or by crook.

Of course to do that sustainably, some money is going to have to be made somewhere along the line sooner or later. In that regard, it would be better to have the option of having the liberty to make the rules yourself. To do that, it would would be better to get to the Moon yourself first. That way, you're not having to ask the Chinese or anyone else for permission or forgiveness for anything.

All I can do is point out the obvious: that getting there first will carry with it certain advantages. Whether this thought actually takes up any brain cells in the people behind the rumored initiative isn't worth debating.

My educated guess is that the same can be said for Alan Stern.  He would encourage the Chinese to land Taikonauts on the moon, but he knows he won't be one of them.  Watch the video posted by Warren a few pages back. 



Stern wants to find reasons that people will send him into space for them.  How do you think he got those three "tickets to space" on SpaceShip Two? (He says he gave the third to Dan Durda, but he actually has others on SS2 and XCor's vehicle.)  If it is to bring back first had stories, getting the data for a refereed paper of interest to an agency, or bringing back precious minerals, the real goal is the flight.  The remainder is an honest attempt to enhance the value of the flight to others so that they enable it. 

I will make an attempt to ask him directly.  Wish me luck.  He can be very cagey and disciplined when the date for announcing things has not yet arrived.

edited to add link to post by Warren Platts
« Last Edit: 11/23/2012 06:08 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline baldusi

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #210 on: 11/23/2012 01:45 pm »
So for the first venture without an established EML1/2 station and no fielded cryo depots using a lunar polar LLO only reachable practically one every 28 days with a at most 1 week stay time before you have to return or there is a requirement for more delt V than what is capable with the on-board propelant. Aditional margins for TEI so that first going into a high lunar orbit allowing for a plane change to then head back to Earth maybe a solution but that adds weight.
My orbital mechanics are primitive, but wouldn't that be each 14 days? Moon is almost escape and you don't really care if you go to a southern or northern insertion point from the Earth. Thus, you could go as long as the station's plane align with your entry vector to the Moon's gravity well. That means you enter once per the North Pole and, 14 days later, per the South Pole to reach the same orbit.

Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #211 on: 11/23/2012 04:30 pm »
Shadi: What are your hopes for the future in terms of where you want us to be in 10-20 years with respect to space explorations?
 
Dr. Stern: In 10 to 20 years, I hope to see three things. I hope that in 10-20 years time, we are on the hills of human return to the moon, so that we could then go on with humans to explore the solar system. I think this is our destiny. Second: I hope that in 10-20 years time space travel will become common place for the interested individual, the same way traveling to Antarctica or the top of Everest is possible for the interested individual today. I think that this is the beginning of a great transformation for space exploration in this millennium for our species. And finally, I hope we will have much more vigorous robotic explorations of the planets, particularly the places where humans can not go yet, to really understand our home the same way a baby does when it leaves its cradle. We are just emerging from that cradle, the cradle of the Earth as a species. These are my wishes and hopes.

http://www.biotrends.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=153:dr-shadis-interview-with-dr-alan-stern&catid=37:most-recent

Offline Danderman

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #212 on: 11/23/2012 05:50 pm »
Good find.

I should note that the publication date is today. It doesn't sound like Dr. Stern is expecting a commercial crewed lunar landing before Orion is "ready".   He is talking about a ten to twenty year time frame before a crewed lunar landing would be imminent.

Something is wrong with the data we have been given, or else I am not understanding his quote.

Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #213 on: 11/23/2012 06:13 pm »
Good find.

I should note that the publication date is today.


Conversation with Dr. Alan Stern - Monday, 25 July 2011 20:45


Offline Warren Platts

Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #214 on: 11/23/2012 06:14 pm »
Nobody is going to invest private capital in a scheme to land people on the Moon because the Chinese may someday land people on the Moon.
If I were a very large mining company (or conglomerate of mining interests) and I believed that there was an economically highly attractive deposit on the moon (either because I believed in near-term reusable rockets or otherwise), then I might in fact be willing to attempt claiming and mining the deposits, using a small portion of my exploration budget toward a well-defined plan and timeframe.  If I thought that the chance existed for a competitor (China) to get there first, then my motivation to fund development appropriately would be stronger, especially if losing the race held the potential to collapse the value of my current assets and operations. 
There is both a carrot and a stick for the private capital. 

I gather you have not calculated the cost per ton of moving metal from the surface of the Moon to Earth compared with the price per ton of that metal.

In round, order of magnitude figures, if the overhead cost was $1B/year and the development and deployment costs were $10B, and production was 100 mT and could be sold for $50K/kg, then the original investment would be paid back after 2.5 years, and they would be making $4B/year in profits after that. Cost of production would be $10K/kg.
"When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return."--Leonardo Da Vinci

Offline Nathan

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #215 on: 11/23/2012 06:53 pm »
Given that Alan Stern is likely involved, could golden spike or whatever this commercial system is simply be an early UWingu project?

That might make some sense.
Given finite cash, if we want to go to Mars then we should go to Mars.

Online edkyle99

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #216 on: 11/23/2012 07:04 pm »
This may not be "it".  Or it may, but probably not.
http://www.melodika.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=487413&Itemid=54

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Offline Comga

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #217 on: 11/23/2012 08:17 pm »
Given that Alan Stern is likely involved, could golden spike or whatever this commercial system is simply be an early UWingu project?

That might make some sense.

It doesn't make sense to me.

You can't pay for a moon landing program on the profits from 99 cent suggest-a-planet-name transactions.

My guess is Uwingu will fund some grad students, maybe a cubesat if they can get a free launch.  The scales are off by several orders of magnitude.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #218 on: 11/23/2012 09:58 pm »
23:00  "Bob, what about the Moon? "


Offline Nelson Bridwell

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Re: Private Moon Landing in the works?
« Reply #219 on: 11/23/2012 10:02 pm »
Why would China want to lay claim to the moon? Bigelow referred to some of the long-discussed potential benefits, including the moon's abundance of helium-3, which could someday be used as fuel for nuclear fusion (although that idea has been oversold in the past). The moon's raw material could also be turned into the water, oxygen, building materials and rocket fuel needed for human exploration. But Bigelow said the biggest payoff would come in the form of international prestige, just as it did for the United States after the moon landings.

"This would endure for a very long time," he said. "It’s priceless. ... Nothing else that China could possibly do in the next 15 years could produce as great a benefit."

Bigelow speculated that China could conduct detailed surface-based surveys of the lunar surface in the mid-2020s, setting the stage for the country to withdraw from the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and formally claim possession of the moon. China could then conceivably insist on being paid for lunar concessions, Bigelow said.


http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2011/10/19/8402070-will-china-take-over-the-moon?lite

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