Author Topic: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal  (Read 51473 times)

Online Helodriver

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Linked here is the full video recorded of Elon Musk's question and answer session after the reveal of Dragon V2. Originally filmed as four separate clips due to breaks and interruptions, they are spliced together along with a  few minutes of Q&A with astronaut Garrett Riesman and are otherwise presented unedited.

Run time is around 50 minutes, and includes a wide range of topics beyond just Dragon V2. Included are a  shoutout to NSF for their work on the CRS-3 splashdown video as well as Elon graciously signing a few pictures I shot of the first Falcon 9 V1.1 launch vehicle at Vandenberg AFB.  8)

This was originally going to be up on L2, but after discussions with Chris, it is now here on the public side.

After rewatching this video, its apparent that I was asking much more technical questions than the assembled press, but how many "How does this make you feel Elon?" questions do we really need? ;)

« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 04:55 PM by Chris Bergin »

Online Chris Bergin

Right folks. Let's crowdsource - like we did on the video thread, but a lot easier! - and pick out the key parts!

Add a timestamp to key notes, and quote items of interest (word for word).

Lots of thanks to Helo! :)

24 mins for the NSF shoutout! ;D

Offline cartman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #2 on: 06/01/2014 05:27 PM »
11:47-12:42
Q: How many flights can Dragon V2 fly without any refurbishment?
A: We're aiming for 10 flights without any significant refurbishment. The thing that will have to be refurbished is the main heat shield. (then explains PICA-X and says they aim for 100 flights)
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 06:03 PM by cartman »

Offline Barrie

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #3 on: 06/01/2014 05:40 PM »
4:28 He says that long-term there should be '1000s of flights a year, a base on the Moon and a base on Mars'.  I thought he had no use for the Moon...

Offline cartman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #4 on: 06/01/2014 05:46 PM »
24:40
Q: (about water in Dragon of CRS-3)
A:There was a little bit of water ingress from a pressure relief valve, because it got dragged about through the ocean so there's a pressure relief valve that picked up some water, from my standing not a big (illegible, maybe part or amount?) was in, so its ok
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 06:02 PM by cartman »

Offline cartman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #5 on: 06/01/2014 05:50 PM »
24:05
People did a really great job of fixing it...there was a bunch of people on Nasaspaceflight forum were able to fix the video.
-Thats pretty cool
-Yeah ;D
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 06:02 PM by cartman »

Offline cartman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #6 on: 06/01/2014 05:53 PM »
24:20
We want to try to land this back at Cape Canaveral ideally. Initially we may fly it somewhere else...(something about version C) all the landings will be on land.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 06:02 PM by cartman »

Offline cartman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #7 on: 06/01/2014 06:01 PM »
26:49
If its in the crew configuration it can take 7 passengers, if you are really [illegible, something that sounds like crowd..surfing] and about a ton of pressurized cargo and 2-3 tons of unpressurized cargo.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 06:04 PM by cartman »

Offline WM68

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #8 on: 06/01/2014 06:06 PM »
45:00

Manned testflights with either a combination of SpaceX en NASA astronauts or all NASA astronauts, the rule is a least one NASA astronaut.

Operational flights with all NASA astronauts, no SpaceX astronauts.

Offline cartman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #9 on: 06/01/2014 06:11 PM »
24:00
Q: Silly question about top temperatures and speeds
A: ... PICA-X v3 is capable of about a kilowatt per square cm, with is a crazy amount, and sustain that for quite a while, in fact is really [limited?] not by the recession rate, but by the conduction of the heat to the back the tile and then potentially damaging the heat shield support structure.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 06:17 PM by cartman »

Offline Joffan

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #10 on: 06/01/2014 06:38 PM »
26:49
If its in the crew configuration it can take 7 passengers, if you are really [illegible, something that sounds like crowd..surfing] and about a ton of pressurized cargo and 2-3 tons of unpressurized cargo.
If its in the crew configuration it can take 7 passengers and I think something around, if you really cram stuff in, around a ton of pressurized cargo and 2-3 tons of unpressurized cargo
When I say "Jump!", you say "To which orbital inclination?"

Offline Burninate

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #11 on: 06/01/2014 06:56 PM »
17:30
Q) Will Dragon 1 remain in production to continue to carry cargo, or will it be phased out in favor of V2?
A) Over time we expect Dragon 1 to be phased out, but we're going to carry both of them in parallel for at least a few years.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 06:57 PM by Burninate »

Online Chris Bergin

Good work guys!

Hey, I was too busy falling off my chair to notice that must have been Helo saying "Chris, that one's for you!" after that lady asked the silly question following the NSF reference! ;D

Nice one Helo!

Offline CriX

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #13 on: 06/01/2014 07:09 PM »
19:12

"In fact I'd encourage people who are in the gaming industry to think about joining SpaceX and creating the next generation spacecraft and rockets and also probably in the future we'll create droids on the surface of Mars and Moon to do things like an automated propellant depot and that sort of thing.  We sort of need those features to have a base on Mars."

Offline HarbingerDawn

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #14 on: 06/01/2014 07:14 PM »
43:40-44:13

The two rear legs are spaced more closely together than the two front legs to handle parachute landings. If coming in under parachute, the craft will be tilted at an angle (front up, rear down) so the closely spaced legs will hit the ground together to absorb the initial impact.

Thanks for posting this Helo!
"I much prefer the sharpest criticism of a single intelligent man to the thoughtless approval of the masses."
- Johannes Kepler

Offline CriX

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #15 on: 06/01/2014 07:21 PM »
28:20

PICA-X v3 performace at  >1 kW/cm2 sustained heat flux 
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 07:22 PM by CriX »

Offline Burninate

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #16 on: 06/01/2014 07:33 PM »
39:44
Q) Can you reach the space station from Texas?
A heavily paraphrased) Yes.  It provides redundancy for any eastern launches.  I should say, except for in emergencies, we plan on using 39A most likely to access the space station.  We can actually reach it from Vandenberg too.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 07:33 PM by Burninate »

Offline Burninate

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #17 on: 06/01/2014 07:37 PM »
40:25
Q) Is there any plans to launch Heavy from Vandenberg?
A) Yes, we expect to launch Heavy from Vandenberg as well.  Although it does look like the first Heavy - We originally thought the first Heavy would might go to Vandenberg, but it's now looking like the first Heavy will probably go out of the Cape, in fact, from 39A.

Offline ArbitraryConstant

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #18 on: 06/01/2014 07:48 PM »
31:00 Nvidia Tegra processors drive the touchscreens (but these are separate from the flight computers).

Offline ArbitraryConstant

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #19 on: 06/01/2014 08:01 PM »
40:58 Helo getting Falcon 9 pictures autographed.

Offline sanman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #20 on: 06/01/2014 08:11 PM »
Helodriver - did you get to talk to Robert Bigelow, as per your exchange with Musk @ 31:50  ?

If so, what did he have to say?

Offline sanman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #21 on: 06/01/2014 08:17 PM »
@ ~ 36:00 Musk gives a tidbit on the Mars/MCT rocket, about looking forward to using LCH4 /LOX to do tank pressurization instead of pesky helium (since there's no helium on Mars). He also says that MCT will be fully reusable.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 08:20 PM by sanman »

Offline deltaV

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #22 on: 06/01/2014 08:18 PM »
Near the beginning of the video Elon said that the Dragon max-Q abort test would be next year. If I remember correctly it used to be scheduled for this year, so that's a slip.

Online Helodriver

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #23 on: 06/01/2014 08:21 PM »
Helodriver - did you get to talk to Robert Bigelow, as per your exchange with Musk @ 31:50  ?

If so, what did he have to say?


I did not. He was already gone by the time Elon finished. I did see him earlier but did not get the chance to meet him. There was a rumor I heard, unconfirmed I might add, that Bigelow's space tourism needs drove the number and size of the windows added to Dragon V2.

Offline edfishel

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #24 on: 06/01/2014 08:25 PM »
Helo - a huge thank you!  Just watched the entire video and very much appreciated your patience, persistence, and good questions.

Offline sanman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #25 on: 06/01/2014 08:36 PM »
@ 48:30 - astronaut Garret Reisman, program lead for crew vehicles / Dragon v2, states that the first return flights for the vehicle will touch down on land.

Online Chris Bergin

Wow. Watched it all the way through. Helo was like the big seasoned space journalist at this event! I can't believe how many questions he got in there!

Couple of articles worth I reckon! :)

Honestly, I couldn't have done better than Helo here (had I been an American and able to go to it! :D)

Offline Tea Party Space Czar

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #27 on: 06/01/2014 11:23 PM »
Completely agree Chris.  I have said on numerous occasions that the membership on this site has so much more institutional knowledge and information then some of those who inform decision makers.   

Between Crowd Sourcing on the public side with the video to L2 - this place is a gold mine.

Hopefully get to meet more of you. 

49:10

Q:  Next phase of CCtCap - should there be more then one?

A: Frankly its in NASA's best interest to have more than one.  You always want to have a plan B... now you just have to convince the congress (Especially the House).

Working that one Garrett.

Respectfully,
Andrew Gasser
President, TEA Party in Space

What we want and what we can afford are two very different things.

Demanding space policy that is fiscally responsible and utilizing the free market system.

Offline mto

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #28 on: 06/01/2014 11:25 PM »
While not specific to the Dragon II I thought this was a good analogy referencing the heat shield:

@ 12:20 "Think of the heat shield like a brake pad. The better that material technology is the more uses it can go through. Just like a brake pad on a car eventually it has to be replaced"

Offline TripD

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #29 on: 06/01/2014 11:32 PM »
@9:55:  Full on paraphrasing:   What kinds of 3d printers did we use (to make the SD).  We used Kiosk(?), SLM and Concept.  All German companies btw.

Offline getitdoneinspace

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #30 on: 06/01/2014 11:40 PM »
Linked here is the full video recorded of Elon Musk's question and answer session after the reveal of Dragon V2. Originally filmed as four separate clips due to breaks and interruptions, they are spliced together along with a  few minutes of Q&A with astronaut Garrett Riesman and are otherwise presented unedited.

Run time is around 50 minutes, and includes a wide range of topics beyond just Dragon V2. Included are a  shoutout to NSF for their work on the CRS-3 splashdown video as well as Elon graciously signing a few pictures I shot of the first Falcon 9 V1.1 launch vehicle at Vandenberg AFB.  8)

This was originally going to be up on L2, but after discussions with Chris, it is now here on the public side.

After rewatching this video, its apparent that I was asking much more technical questions than the assembled press, but how many "How does this make you feel Elon?" questions do we really need? ;)



Great video and excellent questions. I truly enjoyed. Now that commercial space is advancing quickly maybe the mainstream press should invest a little into a reporter that could ask some intelligent questions. Elon seemed to gravitate toward you as he became aware that you were much more intelligent than the average journalist. As the press criticizes the education system for lacking in developing STEM skills they should take some time to look in the mirror to recognize that they are also very weak in this area. 

Offline AncientU

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #31 on: 06/01/2014 11:44 PM »
24:20 --
Quote
Yes, this one will land on land. Just like the video you just saw(garbled) We want to land this back at Cape Canaveral... Initially we may land it someplace else.  Unless it's an emergency, all landings will be on land.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2014 11:47 PM by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline happyflower

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #32 on: 06/01/2014 11:52 PM »
The most stunning revelation from this interview for me was how far 3 D printing has advanced from its beginnings in 1984.

We are talking about going from printing plastic toys to high strength space engines.  At this point there is even talk of printing human organs. This technology at this rate will be the big changer in future of human space endeavors.

Offline AncientU

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #33 on: 06/01/2014 11:57 PM »
28:50
Top temperature and speed the Dragon's going to hit?

5 or 6 thousand degrees F (I think he paused to convert to F from C).
Roughly 25 times the speed of sound.
Quote
It could probably handle twice that kinetic energy, maybe more.
(!)
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline mto

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #34 on: 06/02/2014 12:09 AM »
@ 44:17

Helodriver: Will the DragonFly used at McGregor look like this (DragonII displayed)"

Elon: "Yes it will look almost identical"
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 12:19 AM by mto »

Offline mto

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #35 on: 06/02/2014 12:15 AM »
Helodriver at about 42:30 (just after Elon signed your photos) the video cuts out and when it resumes Elon is saying something about 'vertical blades'. I think this is in response to a question about the placement of the rear legs but could you elaborate on what was said?
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 12:23 AM by mto »

Offline TripD

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #36 on: 06/02/2014 12:24 AM »
My favorite quote.  Don't mess with Jersey!  8)

Helo..... did you do your own camera work as well as the reporting?  If so, ABC should be giving you call any minute to replace the reporter that kept trying to stick his/her mic in your face.

Awesome work and thanks Helo!!

Offline Geron

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #37 on: 06/02/2014 12:31 AM »
The most stunning revelation from this interview for me was how far 3 D printing has advanced from its beginnings in 1984.

We are talking about going from printing plastic toys to high strength space engines.  At this point there is even talk of printing human organs. This technology at this rate will be the big changer in future of human space endeavors.

I agree. When I toured SpaceX a few months ago they had a bunch of components that had been printed on display. When handling them I was amazed at how solid they were and how tiny the details were that had been printed. There was basically this fan type deal in a honey comb shape that I don't see how could be made any other way. I think Musk even says that without the 3d printing technology components of the super draco would have been impossible or near impossible to make.

I wonder if the superdracos could be used to make military planes/vehicles capable of short VTO VL to get in and out of combat situations/pick up troops rapidly. It seems like the deep throttling would enable armored vehicles to rapidly extract troops from a combat situation. I would think that the superdracos could be armored heavily and given the thrust involved for short hops you could get in and out of a situation with much less risk vs helicopter based extraction. I hope that SpaceX considers marketing these components in a manner similar to the way Tesla has been selling their power train/components to other auto manufacturers to gain additional revenue streams for the MCT/Mars effort. Seems like there might be spinoff opportunities!

Online Helodriver

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #38 on: 06/02/2014 12:39 AM »
Helodriver at about 42:30 (just after Elon signed your photos) the video cuts out and when it resumes Elon is saying something about 'vertical blades'. I think this is in response to a question about the placement of the rear legs but could you elaborate on what was said?

Yes, that exactly what he was talking about. The two "rear" landing gear are close together to pass load to the internal structural members which Elon referred to as the vertical blades. The structure is very tight there, with lots of items competing for space, hence the unusual configuration. This is when my camera battery was giving out before I swapped them. I didn't expect him answer so many questions ;)

Online Helodriver

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #39 on: 06/02/2014 12:52 AM »
My favorite quote.  Don't mess with Jersey!  8)

Helo..... did you do your own camera work as well as the reporting?  If so, ABC should be giving you call any minute to replace the reporter that kept trying to stick his/her mic in your face.

Awesome work and thanks Helo!!

All shot (including the stills) with a Sony HX-200V. Professional quality results in a portable package. Never been one to carry around unnecessarily large cameras and lenses to impress others.  I use it for nearly everything, versatile, reliable, gives good results.


http://www.dpreview.com/reviews/sony-cyber-shot-dsc-hx200v
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 12:52 AM by Helodriver »

Offline Jdeshetler

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #40 on: 06/02/2014 01:09 AM »
Manned testflights with either a combination of SpaceX en NASA astronauts or all NASA astronauts, the rule is a least one NASA astronaut.

Interesting so who imposed this "rule", NASA or SpaceX?

Online Chris Bergin

I think we've got most of the key points, but keep them coming if your ears prick up at anything else - as article one from all of this will be tomorrow all being well.

Was going to use the PICA-X v3 notes in the EFT-1 Orion Heat Shield article I've just put on, but I think it's best to keep separation, otherwise we're going to end up mentioning SpaceX in every bloody article! ;D

(Have to be honest, while I was writing the Orion story, I was kinda thinking...."sooner I get this on, sooner I can start building the first SpaceX article from the Q&A video". Hope that doesn't make me a bad person ;))

Offline AncientU

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #42 on: 06/02/2014 01:18 AM »
Manned testflights with either a combination of SpaceX en NASA astronauts or all NASA astronauts, the rule is a least one NASA astronaut.

Interesting so who imposed this "rule", NASA or SpaceX?
I suspect that if it is a certification flight, a NASA astro onboard would be NASA's requirement... and a sensible one at that.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #43 on: 06/02/2014 01:23 AM »
I think we've got most of the key points, but keep them coming if your ears prick up at anything else - as article one from all of this will be tomorrow all being well.

Was going to use the PICA-X v3 notes in the EFT-1 Orion Heat Shield article I've just put on, but I think it's best to keep separation, otherwise we're going to end up mentioning SpaceX in every bloody article! ;D

(Have to be honest, while I was writing the Orion story, I was kinda thinking...."sooner I get this on, sooner I can start building the first SpaceX article from the Q&A video". Hope that doesn't make me a bad person ;))

Not bad... just apolitic.  It's impossible to avoid comparisons between the technologies.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #44 on: 06/02/2014 01:35 AM »
Helodriver you are fantastic.

Here is my full transcript. If anyone sees any errors, feel free to fix them, or let me know.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Online Chris Bergin

Helodriver you are fantastic.

Here is my full transcript. If anyone sees any errors, feel free to fix them, or let me know.


I know how much of a balls ache it is to transcribe, so that's a lot of work there!

It's going to be a big help for me (I'll still refer to video, which will double check quoting), but I'll find a way to link both the video and your page into subsequent articles.

Ton of team effort going on here lately!

Offline AncientU

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #46 on: 06/02/2014 02:25 AM »
Thanks for the transcript QuantumG and for the video HeloDriver!  This is fantastic material.
33:30
One bit of political softshoe... following big, big smile...

Quote
No, we're not replacing NASA. NASA is our core customer. I think there's always a role for NASA. There's always going to be things where there's no obvious way to commercialize something - think of something like Hubble space telescope or the James Webb, or some of the exploratory probes that go to Mars and elsewhere, it's always going to be important for NASA to be doing those things because there's no obvious economic model for those things.

Not mentioned:
BFRs
'Exploration' capsules
Launch abort systems
Heat shield technology
Beyond Earth Orbit 'hard stuff'
High tech engine development
Avionics using state-of-the-art software/hardware
Reusablity technologies
State-of-the-art manufacturing technologies
Affordable spaceflight
...
...
...
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 02:26 AM by AncientU »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #47 on: 06/02/2014 02:28 AM »
SpaceX isn't developing state of the art manufacturing techniques (like 3d printing), just utilizing them. NASA, however, /is/ developing new manufacturing techniques, including developing a way to 3d print carbon nanotube based composites. :)
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #48 on: 06/02/2014 02:28 AM »
Yeah, I for one am glad that all major sporting events are government funded. I think there's always a role for national sports institutes. There's always going to be things where there's no obvious way to commercialize something - think of something like the Olympics or the FIFA World Cup, or some of the larger local sports teams, it's always going to be important for government to be doing those things because there's no obvious economic model for those things.

/sarcasm
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #49 on: 06/02/2014 02:30 AM »
Sports stadiums are most certainly dependent on all sorts of government support/hand-outs.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #50 on: 06/02/2014 02:32 AM »
Sports stadiums are most certainly dependent on all sorts of government support/hand-outs.

Maybe this brand of irony is too subtle for your ears.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #51 on: 06/02/2014 02:34 AM »
4:28 He says that long-term there should be '1000s of flights a year, a base on the Moon and a base on Mars'.  I thought he had no use for the Moon...

He said he never had much use for the Moon.  He never said he didn't know how to use it.



Offline joshcryer

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #52 on: 06/02/2014 02:49 AM »
Man, once the local journalists backed off after getting their soundbytes and the guy filming could pick Elon's brain the interview changed dramatically. Even Elon's mild stutter / word search pauses stopped and he was going on about the tech. I love that. Thanks so much to the interviewer and for you guys making this public.

I am surprised about the rental car analogy as opposed to taxi, for some reason I was thinking there would always be at least one SpaceX pilot / crew member on board. But since we're entering the age of self-driving cars and they want this thing to be automated, self-driving space ships make sense. :)

Offline sanman

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #53 on: 06/02/2014 02:54 AM »
He said he never had much use for the Moon.  He never said he didn't know how to use it.

Musk could make a lot of money off space tourism by trying the Moon first, rather than waiting for MCT to get people to Mars. Even if he himself doesn't have much use for the Moon, all these others like Golden Spike would pay him a lot of money to bring people there. Money is fungible, and trips to the Moon would sell like hotcakes if Musk could bring down the cost threshold far enough. LEO is so last-century, and trips to Mars are likely to be too strenuous for the near future. But the Moon is the right distance for a vacation, or a sightseeing tour, or a short trip. It could be the next exotic "Down Under".
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 02:56 AM by sanman »

Offline meekGee

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #54 on: 06/02/2014 03:26 AM »
He said he never had much use for the Moon.  He never said he didn't know how to use it.

Musk could make a lot of money off space tourism by trying the Moon first, rather than waiting for MCT to get people to Mars. Even if he himself doesn't have much use for the Moon, all these others like Golden Spike would pay him a lot of money to bring people there. Money is fungible, and trips to the Moon would sell like hotcakes if Musk could bring down the cost threshold far enough. LEO is so last-century, and trips to Mars are likely to be too strenuous for the near future. But the Moon is the right distance for a vacation, or a sightseeing tour, or a short trip. It could be the next exotic "Down Under".

That's exactly right.

And I'm saying this as someone who really doesn't think the moon has any long term future as a colonization target.

A tourist trip-around-the-moon is absolutely THE ticket.  It's a destination, as opposed to (3 orbits in LEO), you get to see the scenery change from LEO to GTO to blot-the-Earth-with-your-thumb, then a totally alien world that you can zoom by, and then the trip back home.  For sure. 

If you plot Return vs. Investment, this is the best deal.

EDIT:   ...  and I just realized we're in a "reveal" thread.  This sub-conversation should go to a tourism discussion thread.  Which I'm looking for.


EDIT2:  There is no such thread, so will start one - if you've got a horse in this race, reply there.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 03:29 AM by meekGee »
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Offline Lars_J

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Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #55 on: 06/02/2014 04:41 AM »
(Have to be honest, while I was writing the Orion story, I was kinda thinking...."sooner I get this on, sooner I can start building the first SpaceX article from the Q&A video". Hope that doesn't make me a bad person ;))

Seductive, the dark side of the force is. ;) Embrace it! :)
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 04:42 AM by Lars_J »

Offline darkenfast

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #56 on: 06/02/2014 04:58 AM »
I thought I'd just skim the video, but ended up watching every minute of it. Thank you for that, Helodriver!  One thing I noticed off my one viewing is that Elon was claiming a lot of payload capability in addition to the seven people.  I think he said "a ton" of pressurized cargo and "one or two tons" in the trunk.  Of course, he's speaking off the top of his head while several people are asking questions at once, but it will be interesting to see just what the capability of this Dragon/Falcon is.

Offline Geron

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #57 on: 06/02/2014 05:29 AM »
Just watched the video. Great work helodriver. You are awesome. Bummer that girl kept interrupting and asking questions like, "what's the difference between dragon v1 and v2". Pretty annoying lol.

Offline llanitedave

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #58 on: 06/02/2014 07:37 AM »
When you asked the question about manufacturing in Texas, I really perked up my ears.  Unfortunately, Elon got distracted by something else and didn't respond.  But it was one of the questions I most wanted to hear.  Thanks for asking it, at least, helodriver!
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Offline CuddlyRocket

Thank to Helodriver for the video and the wit to ask sensible questions; and to QuantumG for the transcript, which will probably be more referenced!

I expect we'll see bits of this Q&A referenced in a lot of individual threads on this forum!

Online MP99

Helodriver you are fantastic.

Here is my full transcript. If anyone sees any errors, feel free to fix them, or let me know.

QG,

I've made "a few" edits. Hope they're OK.

cheers, Martin

Online MP99

Quick transcript of Garrett Reisman's comments from the end of the Q&A.

If anyone spots any errors, let me know and I'll edit them in.

Quote
[So, Elon said he would defer to NASA on who flies first?] Yeah, so the rule is that at least one of the crew on the test flights has to be a NASA astronaut. Now its up for interpretation whether the other crew members are NASA, they're SpaceX, or a combination thereof.

[Do you think it's gonna be like a taxi model where SpaceX will ferry people up, or a...] When we're flying regularly, (I was talking about the test flights), ...

When we're flying regularly it's a rental car.  So it'll be all NASA astros.

[So the test flights are gonna be SpaceX & NASA, or...] It could be a hybrid, or it could be all NASA, so it's one or the other.

[But don't think they are gonna sell them directly to NASA and it'll be hands off from that point on. So Sp will always have some control or responsibility for the vehicles at all time?] Oh, we'll run mission control, and we'll be controlling from the ground, but we're not gonna have anyone inside other than the NASA astronauts.

[So, compared to Shuttle, what do you think of the V2 here?] Oh, man, they're very, very different. [Oh, clearly, it's a totally different class of vehicle.] Yeah, totally different. The thing about V2 is, it has the potential to be a lot safer than shuttle. [You can abort at any time during flight, right?] Abort at any time, that's something the Shuttle couldn't do. You know, it's got very robust design for entry, it can sustain a number of failures and still be safe. The Shuttle was a wonderful, wonderful vehicle, but it was very... [fragile?] Fragile.

It operated very close to the edge of it's operating envelope.

[What are the standouts between this model and the previous one?] Dragon V2 and V1? Oh, the biggest difference is the SuperDraco engines so we can do a launch abort, but also like Elon said, a propulsive landing. And there's a lot of other, more subtle differences. ...

The other biggest one is that this can dock to Space Station all by itself. It doesn't have to be grabbed by the Space Station#'s robot arm.

[Will that be controlled by the astronauts inside and actually run the docking internally, or will it be done by the guys on the...] Well, nominally, it will be automatic, so if everything has gone well it's gonna do it all by itself. But there'll be the capability for the crew to take over if they need to.

[Is there a simulator for this? Have you tried it? How does it compare to the Shuttle?] You know, it's kinda similar. We do have a simulator, and it is basically flying into the Space Station feels the same in Dragon as it did in the Shuttle.

[Will they do the short duration rendezvous like the Russians do, like the six hour rendezvous?] Yeah, that's what we'd like to do, yeah.

[You trained in the Soyuz, right?] I trained in the Soyuz, yeah. [How does it compare to the Soyuz inside?] Oh, man. There's so much more elbow room in there compared to the Soyuz. Plus, instead of just taking two of your buddies, you can take six, so there's a lot of advantages. Plus, it's got modern electronics, modern materials in the heatshield, I mean just technologically speaking, it's a giant leap beyond Soyuz.

[Propulsive landings, do you know where they intend on landing initially, or is it gonna ... I know Elon said the first ones are gonna parachute in the water, like V1 did?] Our very first V2 is gonna come down on land.

[Do you know where?] They have the capability as a backup to come down in the water, in an emergency, but yeah we have a couple places picked out where... I don't want to get ahead of Elon, let him tell you where.

[What do you do here, what is your title here, what are you in charge of?] I'm the programme lead for this vehicle, for the crew Dragon, the crew vehicle, so I'm the programme lead for that and I'm also our capture manager, so I'm in charge of our proposal team that's working with NASA for the next phase of commercial crew.

[inaudible, something about roles?] Yes, we have.

[I'm curious, the next phase on CCtCap, you think there should be one, or should they retain competition?] Frankly, it's in NASA's interest for there to be more than one. [Absolutely.] You always want to have a plan B. [In the nation's best interests.] Yeah.

Now, just gotta convince Congress to pay for it, that's all. [The House, especially.] Especially, yeah.

cheers, Martin

Offline Jcc

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #62 on: 06/02/2014 10:45 AM »
One question that wasn't asked but I wish had been - will Dragon v2 require a particular type of space suit, or will it be compatible with whatever suit NASA chooses to use? What about Bigalow? Will the preliminary designs we saw of SpaceX suits be ready for flight?

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #63 on: 06/02/2014 11:05 AM »
26:49
If its in the crew configuration it can take 7 passengers, if you are really [illegible, something that sounds like crowd..surfing] and about a ton of pressurized cargo and 2-3 tons of unpressurized cargo.

It wasn't explicitly asked for clarification, but does anyone have any idea on whether this was an estimate of capacity when flying re-usably or as fully expendable?  I tend to think the latter, but am not sure.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline Prober

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #64 on: 06/02/2014 11:21 AM »
The most stunning revelation from this interview for me was how far 3 D printing has advanced from its beginnings in 1984.

We are talking about going from printing plastic toys to high strength space engines.  At this point there is even talk of printing human organs. This technology at this rate will be the big changer in future of human space endeavors.

we have the start of an excellent data base on this site.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33141.msg1202919#new

shameless plug :D
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Offline ohlongjohnson

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #65 on: 06/02/2014 11:26 AM »

Great video and excellent questions. I truly enjoyed. Now that commercial space is advancing quickly maybe the mainstream press should invest a little into a reporter that could ask some intelligent questions. Elon seemed to gravitate toward you as he became aware that you were much more intelligent than the average journalist. As the press criticizes the education system for lacking in developing STEM skills they should take some time to look in the mirror to recognize that they are also very weak in this area.

I remember the press conference of CRS 1 (I think), where SpacePete from NSF asked Mike Suffredini  (I am paraphrasing here) "Where exactly on the P1 truss will the [external paylod] be stored before it will be used in a later spacewalk".  Suffredini answered something like "You know, that's a really good question, I have to look that one up..."
I laughed really hard at how specific this question was. All the other journalists were asking the "normal" (aka "boring") questions and then this über-intelligent, ISS-Hugger question :) You guys really know your stuff! NSF is just the coolest place of all :)




Online Chris Bergin


Great video and excellent questions. I truly enjoyed. Now that commercial space is advancing quickly maybe the mainstream press should invest a little into a reporter that could ask some intelligent questions. Elon seemed to gravitate toward you as he became aware that you were much more intelligent than the average journalist. As the press criticizes the education system for lacking in developing STEM skills they should take some time to look in the mirror to recognize that they are also very weak in this area.

I remember the press conference of CRS 1 (I think), where SpacePete from NSF asked Mike Suffredini  (I am paraphrasing here) "Where exactly on the P1 truss will the [external paylod] be stored before it will be used in a later spacewalk".  Suffredini answered something like "You know, that's a really good question, I have to look that one up..."
I laughed really hard at how specific this question was. All the other journalists were asking the "normal" (aka "boring") questions and then this über-intelligent, ISS-Hugger question :) You guys really know your stuff! NSF is just the coolest place of all :)


I think that was Chris G representing us, as I remember that too. He said "Outstanding question - will have to look it up" at the start and then "really outstanding question" at the end of his answer. To which I started running around the room like a little girl who's been told she's getting a pony for her birthday.

That was a good day! ;D

Offline ohlongjohnson

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #67 on: 06/02/2014 12:08 PM »
I think that was Chris G representing us, as I remember that too.

The funny thing was: I didn't hear, how the guy introduced himself at first, I just heard the question. I thought "Wow, what an awesome question, I wonder if it was from someone related to NSF". Then I listened to it again and i heard "FirstName LastName, Nasaspaceflight.com" :) I thought it was Peter LastName, but my memory really sucks sometimes...

To which I started running around the room like a little girl who's been told she's getting a pony for her birthday.

That was a good day! ;D

:D

Offline mikelepage

I think we've got most of the key points, but keep them coming if your ears prick up at anything else - as article one from all of this will be tomorrow all being well.

Was going to use the PICA-X v3 notes in the EFT-1 Orion Heat Shield article I've just put on, but I think it's best to keep separation, otherwise we're going to end up mentioning SpaceX in every bloody article! ;D

(Have to be honest, while I was writing the Orion story, I was kinda thinking...."sooner I get this on, sooner I can start building the first SpaceX article from the Q&A video". Hope that doesn't make me a bad person ;))

Honestly I was trying to remember the stats for the Dragon heat shield as I was reading the Orion shield article - the mental comparison is hard not to make.  I mean, the long and the short of is that the (privately funded) craft expected to fly in 2 years has a Mars-return-rated heat shield, where as the (congress funded) craft expected to fly in 5(?) years does not, correct?

Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?

Online MP99

I think we've got most of the key points, but keep them coming if your ears prick up at anything else - as article one from all of this will be tomorrow all being well.

Was going to use the PICA-X v3 notes in the EFT-1 Orion Heat Shield article I've just put on, but I think it's best to keep separation, otherwise we're going to end up mentioning SpaceX in every bloody article! ;D

(Have to be honest, while I was writing the Orion story, I was kinda thinking...."sooner I get this on, sooner I can start building the first SpaceX article from the Q&A video". Hope that doesn't make me a bad person ;))

Honestly I was trying to remember the stats for the Dragon heat shield as I was reading the Orion shield article - the mental comparison is hard not to make.  I mean, the long and the short of is that the (privately funded) craft expected to fly in 2 years has a Mars-return-rated heat shield, where as the (congress funded) craft expected to fly in 5(?) years does not, correct?

Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?

SpaceX has the benefit that they can fly a craft, monitor how the heatshield performs, tweak & repeat.

Of course, EFT-1 will shortly be running a similar proving test for Orion, and EM-1, etc will build up the database for higher reentry speeds.

cheers, Martin

Offline Lar

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #70 on: 06/02/2014 07:40 PM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?
Average number of jobs per district.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline JBF

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #71 on: 06/02/2014 09:01 PM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?
Average number of jobs per district.

Come on Lar be nice.  Orion has better radiation shielding and should be able to stay up longer.
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Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #72 on: 06/02/2014 09:47 PM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?
Average number of jobs per district.

Come on Lar be nice.  Orion has better radiation shielding and should be able to stay up longer.
That was nice, he didn't mention time or cost :)

Offline RocketGoBoom

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #73 on: 06/02/2014 09:55 PM »
Completely agree Chris.  I have said on numerous occasions that the membership on this site has so much more institutional knowledge and information then some of those who inform decision makers.   

Between Crowd Sourcing on the public side with the video to L2 - this place is a gold mine.


China doesn't even need a spy to get all of the secrets from SpaceX.
All they need is L2 access from this website !!!

Offline 411rocket

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #74 on: 06/02/2014 09:57 PM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?
Average number of jobs per district.

More Politicians, willing to throw money at it.

Offline Joel

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #75 on: 06/02/2014 10:32 PM »
@ ~ 36:00 Musk gives a tidbit on the Mars/MCT rocket, about looking forward to using LCH4 /LOX to do tank pressurization instead of pesky helium (since there's no helium on Mars). He also says that MCT will be fully reusable.
Here is the quote from the QG's transcript:
Quote
Next launch, I think we're just double checking everything on the rocket and we expect to probably launch on June 10th or thereabouts. We had a helium leak. Helium is a pernicous little molecule, I've got to say. [Question about getting past helium.] Well yeah, so here I'll give you a little bit of a tidbit on the Mars vehicle which will be methane powered. Mars vehicle will be autogenously pressurized with methane and oxygen. So instead of helium pressurization - there's no helium on Mars. So, we'll gasify the liquid oxygen and liquid methane to pressurize their respective tanks. Looking forward to that. [Fully reusable?] Yes, absolutely. Fully reusable.
Does anyone know what such a pressurization would look like? Could the heat for gasification come from the two Raptor preburners?

Offline enkarha

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #76 on: 06/02/2014 11:23 PM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?

Yes. More internal volume, a more capable ECLSS allowing for up to 3 weeks crew time vs "several days" for Dragon v2. It has a service module capable of imparting significant deta-v. A navigation and communication system built for BEO. Orion crews can EVA straight from the capsule. Some of these will be easier and some significantly harder to build into Dragon v2.

Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?
Average number of jobs per district.

We can give better replies than "pork pork pork" when genuine questions about spacecraft are asked, even if there is a lot of pork and we are in the SpaceX section.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 11:31 PM by enkarha »
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Offline aero

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #77 on: 06/02/2014 11:27 PM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?

Yes. More internal volume, a more capable ECLSS allowing for up to 3 weeks crew time vs "several days" for Dragon v2. It has a service module capable of imparting significant deta-v. A navigation and communication system built for BEO. Orion crews can EVA. Some of these will be easier and some significantly harder to build into Dragon v2.

I think the question should be: Is there anything that CST-100 has over Dragon v2?

One thing is, it has more buttons and switches: http://www.universetoday.com/111655/boeing-cst-100-space-taxi-maiden-test-flight-to-iss-expected-early-2017-one-on-one-interview-with-chris-ferguson-last-shuttle-commander/
« Last Edit: 06/02/2014 11:30 PM by aero »
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Offline Jim

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #78 on: 06/03/2014 01:21 AM »

Does anyone know what such a pressurization would look like? Could the heat for gasification come from the two Raptor preburners?

See the SSME on how to do it.

Offline Will

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #79 on: 06/03/2014 01:46 AM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?

Yes. More internal volume, a more capable ECLSS allowing for up to 3 weeks crew time vs "several days" for Dragon v2. It has a service module capable of imparting significant deta-v. A navigation and communication system built for BEO. Orion crews can EVA. Some of these will be easier and some significantly harder to build into Dragon v2.

I think the question should be: Is there anything that CST-100 has over Dragon v2?

One thing is, it has more buttons and switches: http://www.universetoday.com/111655/boeing-cst-100-space-taxi-maiden-test-flight-to-iss-expected-early-2017-one-on-one-interview-with-chris-ferguson-last-shuttle-commander/


Abort propellant that's less toxic than hypergolics. The ability to use unused abort propellant in gimbaled thrusters for ISS reboost. More experience with in-space ECLSS. Willingness to use whatever launcher is most promising rather than only the one made by the company that made the spacecraft. 

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #80 on: 06/03/2014 01:57 AM »
One question that wasn't asked but I wish had been - will Dragon v2 require a particular type of space suit, or will it be compatible with whatever suit NASA chooses to use? What about Bigalow? Will the preliminary designs we saw of SpaceX suits be ready for flight?
Generally, space suits work with just certain spacecraft. I suppose you could design a spacecraft to take heritage spacesuits, but it may be less work to just develop new space suits.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online Chris Bergin

So I've written up the first article (Garrett's comments, as there's a commercial crew angle, and I think the next one on CCP will be sooner rather than later, so giving them some separation). Adding images and links, then it'll go on. *

Then I'll find chunks of time and write a REALLY long on based on Elon's quotes. I've got an idea about an article covering progression from Falcon 1, where the fourth flight had to be a success, to where they are now and heading to a potential "1000s" of launches in the future. There's a really nice angle there. A third one will clean up other interesting Dragon V2 quotes from Elon, probably after ORBCOMM.

A fourth one will be on the F9 video repair, because he provided good quotes on that and OMG mentioned the site! ;D

*Ok, that'll be tomorrow morning now, seen as I'm still waiting on a PM response.

Online TrevorMonty

The most stunning revelation from this interview for me was how far 3 D printing has advanced from its beginnings in 1984.

We are talking about going from printing plastic toys to high strength space engines.  At this point there is even talk of printing human organs. This technology at this rate will be the big changer in future of human space endeavors.

we have the start of an excellent data base on this site.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33141.msg1202919#new

shameless plug :D


I think you copied wrong link Prober,  try this.

 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33141.msg1208761.msg#1208761

Offline Aerospace Dilettante

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #83 on: 06/03/2014 05:12 AM »
"How do you feel?"   >:(

Just think what we might have gotten with a 100% helodriver Q&A.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #84 on: 06/03/2014 05:56 AM »
I think the question should be: Is there anything that CST-100 has over Dragon v2?

Abort propellant that's less toxic than hypergolics. The ability to use unused abort propellant in gimbaled thrusters for ISS reboost. More experience with in-space ECLSS. Willingness to use whatever launcher is most promising rather than only the one made by the company that made the spacecraft.

The first two are reasonable points for CST-100.

The third isn't about CST-100, it's about the organization building CST-100, and there's no evidence it will give CST-100 anything Dragon V2 doesn't.  We could make all sorts of statements about Boeing and SpaceX as companies, but the question was about actual design features of CST-100 versus those of Dragon V2.

The final item also doesn't translate to anything concrete for CST-100.  "Willingness" is vague.  What's actually planned is for it to have one launch vehicle, Atlas V.  Falcon 9 has been mentioned as a possibility if plans change, but it would clearly be a lot of work and would require SpaceX to agree to it.  It wouldn't be any technically harder or easier to switch Dragon V2 from F9 to Atlas V than to switch CST-100 from Atlas V to F9.  The only reason nobody has talked about that is that F9 is so much cheaper than Atlas V and doesn't have engines made in Russia, so there's no reason to switch.  In fact, the talk of possibly switching CST-100 from Atlas V to Falcon 9 just highlights the fact that Dragon V2's plan-of-record launch vehicle is pretty compelling.

Offline Comga

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #85 on: 06/03/2014 07:02 AM »
1 Helodriver: Fantastic.  Wonderful work, presence of mind, very thoughtful and well done.

2 This is not the place for back-and forth on Orion or CST-100 (or inevitably DC).  Plenty of places for that.

3 Joel: Besides Jim's reference to the SSME, HMXHMX has provided a good bit of detail on self pressurizing in another thread in this section within the last few days.  (Sorry.  Can't remember which one but search his posts.)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online TrevorMonty

Thanks Heliodriver for great video.

2:50 Seat pricing. <$20m seat for low flight rates and down <$10m for high flight rates.

I'm guessing the <$10m assumes LV reusability.

Offline Jcc

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #87 on: 06/03/2014 10:45 AM »
"Also, probably, in the future we'll create, like, droids on the surface of Mars and the Moon to do things like an automated propellant depot and that kind of thing. We sort of need those features to have a base on Mars."

Interested in going to the Moon? Yes. Propellant depots, yes, on Mars and the Moon.
Now hiring game developers to write flight software, and develop droids.


Offline Lar

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #89 on: 06/03/2014 03:00 PM »
Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?
Average number of jobs per district.

Ok that was a flippant answer, but it happens to actually be serious too. (and I was answering for the Boeing CC entry which is what I figure mikelepage meant,, rather than for Orion, but it does apply to both) 

Like it or not, NASA is a political animal and is driven by politics even when it tries to resist that driver. And being politically well connected, as Boeing is, gives an advantage.

What's nifty though is that folks developed a pretty good list of other advantages (or believed/perceived advantages)... Here's what I gathered at least one person believes ... did I miss any?

For Orion
- BEO capability
   - Better heat shield (this may or may not be valid, hard to tell, but it's been spec'ed to survive higher reentry speeds)
   - Longer duration ECLSS
   - better radiation shielding
   - Navs/Comms built for BEO
- More internal volume
- External service module that gives significant deltaV capability (and which could be enhanced without capsule redesign)
- EVA direct from capsule without needing an external airlock
- More mature development organization behind it ("safe choice")
- More jobs per district

For CST-100
- Less toxic abort prop than hypergolics
- gimbaled thrusters that can be used for ISS reboost (more easily than DV2?)
- More conventional (buttons and switches) control panel
- launcher agnostic
- More in-space ECLSS experience
- More mature development organization behind it ("safe choice")
- More jobs per district

But as someone else said, this probably isn't the place for this, I just wanted to capture what had been written in one place.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline zd4

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #90 on: 06/03/2014 03:59 PM »
~7:47
100s of flights per year in about 12 - 15 years. I wish someone would ask him where does he see those flights going to. I saw in another talk (2011 talk at AIAA) that he said he doesn't expect a great increase in the number of satellites, and I wouldn't expect the AF of NASA to suddenly need 100s of flights, so he clearly is thinking of new markets for flights going forward. Also, it would be great to hear how he got to the 12 - 15 year estimate.

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #91 on: 06/03/2014 05:12 PM »
Great work Helodriver! Lots of great information there! Thanks for sharing this with us!

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #92 on: 06/03/2014 05:25 PM »
~7:47
100s of flights per year in about 12 - 15 years. I wish someone would ask him where does he see those flights going to. I saw in another talk (2011 talk at AIAA) that he said he doesn't expect a great increase in the number of satellites, and I wouldn't expect the AF of NASA to suddenly need 100s of flights, so he clearly is thinking of new markets for flights going forward. Also, it would be great to hear how he got to the 12 - 15 year estimate.

He's pretty clear on that point. The destinations are...

1.)Mars
2.)Mars
3.)Moon
4.)Mars

Offline zd4

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #93 on: 06/03/2014 08:13 PM »
~7:47
100s of flights per year in about 12 - 15 years. I wish someone would ask him where does he see those flights going to. I saw in another talk (2011 talk at AIAA) that he said he doesn't expect a great increase in the number of satellites, and I wouldn't expect the AF of NASA to suddenly need 100s of flights, so he clearly is thinking of new markets for flights going forward. Also, it would be great to hear how he got to the 12 - 15 year estimate.

He's pretty clear on that point. The destinations are...

1.)Mars
2.)Mars
3.)Moon
4.)Mars

100s of flights a year to the moon and Mars by the 2030s? I am quite sure that isn't what Elon meant.

Offline Lar

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #94 on: 06/03/2014 09:35 PM »
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
   - attributed to such luminaries as Niels Bohr and Yogi Berra!

the 2030s are 20 years from now. A lot can change in 20 years. I would not rule out significant lunar traffic by 2030 along with some Mars traffic as well.

So I would not be so sure that isn't what Elon meant.
« Last Edit: 06/03/2014 09:36 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #95 on: 06/03/2014 09:42 PM »
~7:47
100s of flights per year in about 12 - 15 years. I wish someone would ask him where does he see those flights going to. I saw in another talk (2011 talk at AIAA) that he said he doesn't expect a great increase in the number of satellites, and I wouldn't expect the AF of NASA to suddenly need 100s of flights, so he clearly is thinking of new markets for flights going forward. Also, it would be great to hear how he got to the 12 - 15 year estimate.

At a "guess" I'm suspecting that the majority would be to and from orbit, not any particular "destination" as it were. While he might not expect a great increase in the number of "dedicated" satellite launches hes got to "see" an increased requirement for payload to LEO including space stations, cargo and people to get to the point that something like the MCT is "justified" in operation. Its a simple matter of the scales (of economy and operations) needed to support the activities he sees.

I expect he "sees" only a very small percentage of these flights being for the government, the bulk of it has to be "commercial" in some sense, and one thing people tend to forget is that with higher access and lowered costs (both the "basis" of this type of operations) there is going to be major changes in the way we operate in space compared to today.

As to the timeframe I'm willing to bet it's based on economics and demand as criteria. The idea is that if price goes down as access goes up then demand will likewise increase. At some point (depending on who's math you use and what assumptions you base that math on "it" varies between 10 to 20 years or so) demand will begin to outstrip capability to the point where it becomes economic for increased competition to start lowering the overall entry price as well as prices in general. You get a turning point where increase operations spark price-wars and decreased and streamlining of operations in order to be more competative.

The kicker in the mix is that unlike any other transportation system we've ever dealt with on Earth, space travel doesn't have any "pre-existing" transportation market/system to tap into with the promise of increased "efficiency" over the "old" system in order to fund itself. There are no pre-existing destinations that will be faster or more economic to "get-to," no pre-existing market of goods and materials that can be transported at "reduced" cost, nothing. The ONLY current customer is really NASA for cargo and personnel, and the ONLY current market is commercial satellite launch. Everything and anything beyond those currently is going to require some sort of "bootstrapping" program to PROVIDE the basis for commercial space flight as envisioned by Musk. Its a "do-or-die" situation in that the only way to get there from here is to TRY it and see if it works.

Elon Musk has provided a "ship" but it has no destination or market which to tap, especially if the US Government "declines" to accept his offer of services.

Pretty much right now the 'ball' is very much in the court of anyone and everyone who has claimed that the thing that "commmercial space operations" every needed was a "ride" to and from orbit. The "ride" has arrived and it is fully dependent on SOMEONE stepping up and taking the NEXT leap of faith in order to suceed.

Randy
From The Amazing Catstronaut on the Black Arrow LV:
British physics, old chap. It's undignified to belch flames and effluvia all over the pad, what. A true gentlemen's orbital conveyance lifts itself into the air unostentatiously, with the minimum of spectacle and a modicum of grace. Not like our American cousins' launch vehicles, eh?

Offline GregA

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #96 on: 06/03/2014 10:23 PM »
~7:47
100s of flights per year in about 12 - 15 years. I wish someone would ask him where does he see those flights going to. I saw in another talk (2011 talk at AIAA) that he said he doesn't expect a great increase in the number of satellites, and I wouldn't expect the AF of NASA to suddenly need 100s of flights, so he clearly is thinking of new markets for flights going forward. Also, it would be great to hear how he got to the 12 - 15 year estimate.

Corresponds with Shotwell's comments a few months back about scouting for many launch sites in about 12 years, to get lots of people moving. I heard that as required for Mars, but does anyone remember if that was explicit?

Quote
At a "guess" I'm suspecting that the majority would be to and from orbit, not any particular "destination" as it were. While he might not expect a great increase in the number of "dedicated" satellite launches hes got to "see" an increased requirement for payload to LEO including space stations, cargo and people to get to the point that something like the MCT is "justified" in operation. Its a simple matter of the scales (of economy and operations) needed to support the activities he sees.
<snip>
The kicker in the mix is that unlike any other transportation system we've ever dealt with on Earth, space travel doesn't have any "pre-existing" transportation market/system to tap into with the promise of increased "efficiency" over the "old" system in order to fund itself. There are no pre-existing destinations that will be faster or more economic to "get-to," no pre-existing market of goods and materials that can be transported at "reduced" cost, nothing. The ONLY current customer is really NASA for cargo and personnel, and the ONLY current market is commercial satellite launch. Everything and anything beyond those currently is going to require some sort of "bootstrapping" program to PROVIDE the basis for commercial space flight as envisioned by Musk. Its a "do-or-die" situation in that the only way to get there from here is to TRY it and see if it works.
Your 2 comments fall together quite neatly. But I don't think he means LEO launches. (edit:… but he was saying 100s of Dragon V2 launches?)

On a related note, you say "space stationS". The old ideas of space stations had an industrial base (Mars/Moon/Asteroids) as part of their history, but the recent interest has approached them as a first step.
ie: Mars comes first, then space stations built with Mars materials.

Of course it was based on the premise that launch from Mars was far cheaper than launch from Earth, but perhaps that assumption will need to be revisited in the near future.
« Last Edit: 06/03/2014 10:24 PM by GregA »

Offline Mongo62

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #97 on: 06/03/2014 10:28 PM »
Pretty much right now the 'ball' is very much in the court of anyone and everyone who has claimed that the thing that "commmercial space operations" every needed was a "ride" to and from orbit. The "ride" has arrived and it is fully dependent on SOMEONE stepping up and taking the NEXT leap of faith in order to suceed.

One obvious market would be various Bigelow Aerospace type commercial space habitats and their associated service and personnel delivery missions. Robert Bigelow certainly has ambitious plans in that regard, and I could see other organizations deciding to enter the market once they see his (I hope) success.

Another would be Planetary Resources type payloads, which could very well explode in numbers if the price to LEO drops sufficiently. And then there would be those space industries that utilize asteroidal resources, although those would be further in the future. But the first entirely new market, in my opinion, is likely to be Bigelow-type stations and their supply and maintenance.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #98 on: 06/04/2014 12:12 AM »
~7:47
100s of flights per year in about 12 - 15 years. I wish someone would ask him where does he see those flights going to. I saw in another talk (2011 talk at AIAA) that he said he doesn't expect a great increase in the number of satellites, and I wouldn't expect the AF of NASA to suddenly need 100s of flights, so he clearly is thinking of new markets for flights going forward. Also, it would be great to hear how he got to the 12 - 15 year estimate.

He's pretty clear on that point. The destinations are...

1.)Mars
2.)Mars
3.)Moon
4.)Mars

100s of flights a year to the moon and Mars by the 2030s? I am quite sure that isn't what Elon meant.

Yeah, a BFR fleet with 24 hour turn around doing hundreds of launches per year yielding a mars ticket price of $500,000. It is exactly what he meant. Never said it was going to happen or even remotely likely but he has made enough public comments to know his stance. He would be seriously bummed if rockets aren't flying like airlines by the time he is 60.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2014 01:29 AM by ncb1397 »

Offline RocketGoBoom

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #99 on: 06/04/2014 01:13 AM »

Yeah, a BFR fleet with 24 hour turn around doing hundreds of launches per year yielding a mars ticket price of $500,000. It is exactly what he meant. Never said it was going to happen or even remotely likely but he has made enough public comments to know his stance. He would be seriously bummed if rockets aren't flying like airlines by the time his is 60.

Elon likely has lots of grand dreams that will never come true and he will be bummed. Greenhouse delivered to Mars with an ICBM.... But if only 1/10 of his wild ass plans come to fruition, then the next 20 years will be fun to be apart of.

Offline WindyCity

It's interesting to compare the videos of the interiors of the Dragon V2 and the Orion. See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33728.0. I was struck by how robust and sturdy the Orion hardware looked compared to the Dragon's. Is it possible that the hatch, the retractable instrument panel, the seats, etc. are conceptual mock-ups and not flight-capable designs?

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #101 on: 06/04/2014 05:14 AM »
It's interesting to compare the videos of the interiors of the Dragon V2 and the Orion. See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33728.0. I was struck by how robust and sturdy the Orion hardware looked compared to the Dragon's. Is it possible that the hatch, the retractable instrument panel, the seats, etc. are conceptual mock-ups and not flight-capable designs?

It's possible.  But keep in mind that the Orion controls you're seeing in this video are in a mock-up of the capsule, while the Dragon controls are in a unit that is intended to be flown to orbit.  I don't see any reason to believe the Orion controls are more likely to be what really flies than the Dragon controls.

The only reason people seem reluctant to believe the Dragon controls are real is that they don't fit people's preconceived notions of what a spacecraft panel should look like.

Offline llanitedave

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #102 on: 06/04/2014 06:09 AM »
It's interesting to compare the videos of the interiors of the Dragon V2 and the Orion. See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33728.0. I was struck by how robust and sturdy the Orion hardware looked compared to the Dragon's. Is it possible that the hatch, the retractable instrument panel, the seats, etc. are conceptual mock-ups and not flight-capable designs?

It's possible.  But keep in mind that the Orion controls you're seeing in this video are in a mock-up of the capsule, while the Dragon controls are in a unit that is intended to be flown to orbit.  I don't see any reason to believe the Orion controls are more likely to be what really flies than the Dragon controls.

The only reason people seem reluctant to believe the Dragon controls are real is that they don't fit people's preconceived notions of what a spacecraft panel should look like.

Lee Morin in that video refers to the Orion as a "medium-fidelity mockup".
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline mikelepage

Is there anything that Orion has over Dragon v2?
Average number of jobs per district.

Ok that was a flippant answer, but it happens to actually be serious too. (and I was answering for the Boeing CC entry which is what I figure mikelepage meant,, rather than for Orion, but it does apply to both) 

...

What's nifty though is that folks developed a pretty good list of other advantages (or believed/perceived advantages)... Here's what I gathered at least one person believes ... did I miss any?

...

But as someone else said, this probably isn't the place for this, I just wanted to capture what had been written in one place.

Thanks for the summary Lar.  I won't prolong this off-topic conversation much longer, but better radiation protection, longer duration ECLSS, EVA capability, more internal space and a service module with significant delta V capability were exactly what I was asking for (they're not insignificant factors). The pork aspect I assumed was implied ;)

Yours is the first post I've heard that suggested Orion had a higher spec'd heat shield (on paper if not in reality) though.  It will be interesting to see how the reality bears it out. 

With regard to destinations, I've spoken about my thoughts in my "Settling the Incliptic" series of youtube videos, but basically my take is that getting to orbit cheaply really is the limiting factor currently and that 100s and then 1000s of flights per year will come relatively quickly after that as the assembly line ramps up and the %reusability of each rocket increases.  If people are now willing to spend $100k for a 3 month cruise around the Mediterranean, I can't imagine there not being a huge market inside of 12-15 years for $1 million/1 month trips to a properly spec'd space hotel if safety was relatively assured.  Bigelow is going to be richer than ever if he plays his cards right. 

I do think spin gee is going to factor quite strongly into that market though - and for reasons completely aside from the health aspects - us space nuts may not care, but I think for most people the novelty of going to the toilet and trying to bathe in microgravity will wear off pretty quickly.  I would bet the first really popular space hotels will be Bigelow type inflatables, but with a number of compact bedroom/ensuite modules attached to a rotating hub by cables that can be individually reeled in or deployed as necessary (and yes, you always counterbalance some modules going in by others going out, and you use any number of civil engineering techniques to damp out any resonances, be they systematic or - ahem - passenger induced).  You sleep, bathe and do your business, in private, at 1 x g.  You eat, work and play in microgravity.  Sounds like the best of all worlds to me.

The way I suspect the sub-orbital travel market will get tapped once flights get regular enough is not so much analogous to Concorde plane flight as it is to travel by cruise ship: Launch from California, spend a week in orbit, then put down in London.  Sub-orbital flight is nearly orbital, after all, and if you're going to pay that much you might as well spend a few days to enjoy the view.  The speed aspect may only be used by those like the military who can afford the premium.   Suffice to say, 1000s of flights/year in 15-20 years seems low-ball to me.   

Online MP99

If people are now willing to spend $100k for a 3 month cruise around the Mediterranean, I can't imagine there not being a huge market inside of 12-15 years for $1 million/1 month trips to a properly spec'd space hotel if safety was relatively assured.  Bigelow is going to be richer than ever if he plays his cards right.

The inherent costs of those Med cruises are relatively low.

I'd think most of the cost comes in the people providing service, and the volume / mass of consumables.

ISTM that replicating that level of service in space will be very expensive.

Cheers, Martin

Offline ohlongjohnson

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #105 on: 06/04/2014 08:53 AM »
Thanks Heliodriver for great video.

2:50 Seat pricing. <$20m seat for low flight rates and down <$10m for high flight rates.

I'm guessing the <$10m assumes LV reusability.

Perhaps this has been covered before, but i stumbled over something Elon said in the video:
I don't have the exact quote, but didn't he say "20m assuming 4 flights per year" ?

A dragon mission to ISS for 7 crewmembers costs 140m. The falcon 9 (commercial) price is around 60m, that leaves 80m for dragon +integration +overhead. That leaves 40-60m per dragon per mission.

In my opinion there are two possible interpretations of the "assuming 4 flights per year"-part:

1) reuse-related: 4 flights of the same dragon vehicle (assumes production cost of ~200m per dragon)
2) production related: 4 vehicles produced per year (assumes production cost of ~50m per dragon)

The prices are simplifications... I just wanted to illustrate my train of thought...

Which one is it in your opinion?

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #106 on: 06/04/2014 09:00 AM »
Thanks Heliodriver for great video.

2:50 Seat pricing. <$20m seat for low flight rates and down <$10m for high flight rates.

I'm guessing the <$10m assumes LV reusability.

Perhaps this has been covered before, but i stumbled over something Elon said in the video:
I don't have the exact quote, but didn't he say "20m assuming 4 flights per year" ?

A dragon mission to ISS for 7 crewmembers costs 140m. The falcon 9 (commercial) price is around 60m, that leaves 80m for dragon +integration +overhead. That leaves 40-60m per dragon per mission.

In my opinion there are two possible interpretations of the "assuming 4 flights per year"-part:

1) reuse-related: 4 flights of the same dragon vehicle (assumes production cost of ~200m per dragon)
2) production related: 4 vehicles produced per year (assumes production cost of ~50m per dragon)

The prices are simplifications... I just wanted to illustrate my train of thought...

Which one is it in your opinion?

The price SpaceX charges NASA might have more to do with how much they think they can get out of NASA than the marginal cost to produce additional vehicles.  And why not?  As long as they're charging less than the competition, it's good for both NASA and SpaceX.

Offline ohlongjohnson

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #107 on: 06/04/2014 09:44 AM »

The price SpaceX charges NASA might have more to do with how much they think they can get out of NASA than the marginal cost to produce additional vehicles.  And why not?  As long as they're charging less than the competition, it's good for both NASA and SpaceX.

Of course there is profit in there, too! My question is: Do you think someone at SpaceX said:

1) "We can offer a price of 20m assuming no reuse of dragon, but the production line has to spit out 4 dragons per year for this price to work"
or
2) "We can offer a price of 20m assuming reusing dragon 4 times"

?

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #108 on: 06/04/2014 11:02 AM »

The price SpaceX charges NASA might have more to do with how much they think they can get out of NASA than the marginal cost to produce additional vehicles.  And why not?  As long as they're charging less than the competition, it's good for both NASA and SpaceX.

Of course there is profit in there, too! My question is: Do you think someone at SpaceX said:

1) "We can offer a price of 20m assuming no reuse of dragon, but the production line has to spit out 4 dragons per year for this price to work"
or
2) "We can offer a price of 20m assuming reusing dragon 4 times"

?

Let me try to be more clear.

SpaceX is highly vertically integrated, and they are in a business with very low volume.  The vast majority of their costs are likely fixed.  That means their gross margins are very high.

So they don't think in terms of "We can offer a price" based on their incremental costs, because those are very low.  They can make a gross profit with or without reuse.  Even without any reuse, the prices they charge NASA will be far higher than their marginal costs.

Offline Prober

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #109 on: 06/04/2014 11:47 AM »
Thanks Heliodriver for great video.

2:50 Seat pricing. <$20m seat for low flight rates and down <$10m for high flight rates.

I'm guessing the <$10m assumes LV reusability.

Perhaps this has been covered before, but i stumbled over something Elon said in the video:
I don't have the exact quote, but didn't he say "20m assuming 4 flights per year" ?

A dragon mission to ISS for 7 crewmembers costs 140m. The falcon 9 (commercial) price is around 60m, that leaves 80m for dragon +integration +overhead. That leaves 40-60m per dragon per mission.

In my opinion there are two possible interpretations of the "assuming 4 flights per year"-part:

1) reuse-related: 4 flights of the same dragon vehicle (assumes production cost of ~200m per dragon)
2) production related: 4 vehicles produced per year (assumes production cost of ~50m per dragon)

The prices are simplifications... I just wanted to illustrate my train of thought...

Which one is it in your opinion?

one media (don't recall article) has the pricing you list but only on the basis of NASA accepting 12 flights per year. Otherwise it would be more per seat.
google and maybe you will find it.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #110 on: 06/04/2014 12:07 PM »
Elon corrected himself and said the $20m per seat figure was for 2 flights per year.
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Offline starsilk

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #111 on: 06/04/2014 03:55 PM »
Elon corrected himself and said the $20m per seat figure was for 2 flights per year.

he didn't clarify how many seats used per flight though. that seems a very low price if NASA only uses four seats, presumably that means '$20m per seat with all seven occupied'... $140m/flight.

Offline lele

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #112 on: 06/04/2014 04:07 PM »
Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?
What would NASA do with these additional seats?

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #113 on: 06/04/2014 04:21 PM »
Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?
What would NASA do with these additional seats?
Bring all Astronauts home in one vehicle in case something happens on the ISS, maybe?

Offline rpapo

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #114 on: 06/04/2014 04:26 PM »
Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?
What would NASA do with these additional seats?
Bring all Astronauts home in one vehicle in case something happens on the ISS, maybe?
Are we forgetting our past?  Remember how things worked with the Shuttle.  I could easily imagine them sending up seven people at a time, 3-4 of them to stay on the ISS, and bringing back an equal number.  The return trip, of course, would use the Dragon that's been sitting up there as lifeboat for 4-6 months.
An Apollo fanboy . . . fifty years ago.

Offline InfraNut2

Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?

No. NASA needed just 4 and 4+ is what it specified.

Online MP99

Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?
What would NASA do with these additional seats?
Bring all Astronauts home in one vehicle in case something happens on the ISS, maybe?
Are we forgetting our past?  Remember how things worked with the Shuttle.  I could easily imagine them sending up seven people at a time, 3-4 of them to stay on the ISS, and bringing back an equal number.  The return trip, of course, would use the Dragon that's been sitting up there as lifeboat for 4-6 months.

IIRC they relied on Shuttle ECLSS, EG for sleeping.

cheers, Martin

Offline rpapo

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #117 on: 06/05/2014 10:31 AM »
IIRC they relied on Shuttle ECLSS, EG for sleeping.
Which reminds me...  IIRC, there are two docking adapters currently up there on the ISS, one of them on Harmony (the customary Shuttle docking location) and another attached to Unity (adjacent the Cupola).  Once we get into the mode where one Dragon (or DC, or CST-100) is attached as lifeboat for 4-6 months at a time, with shorter periods where there are two spacecraft docked at the same time, then they will need to use both of those docking adapters.  The question is: do we know if they intend to move PMA-3 to a new location, like perhaps the upper port of Harmony?  It seems to me that the current location on Unity is a less than optimal location because of physical obstructions to clean docking and undocking.

Though perhaps we are also straying off topic here...   :-\
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Offline InfraNut2

The question is: do we know if they intend to move PMA-3 to a new location, like perhaps the upper port of Harmony?  It seems to me that the current location on Unity is a less than optimal location because of physical obstructions to clean docking and undocking.

Yes: harmony zenith, and unity nadir will be freed up to be a better backup berthing port.

This has long been the plan and it has been extensively described and discussed here before. For more info: Search and ye shall find... :)

edit: See for example this article from the news part of this site.
« Last Edit: 06/05/2014 11:30 AM by InfraNut2 »

Offline Tony Whitehead

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #119 on: 06/06/2014 05:58 AM »
Enjoyed this interview very much.  I live in Waco, not far from the McGregor test site and eagerly anticipate an aggressive Dragonfly program.  Thank you for all the good information, Elon really perked up to your questions.

Offline Torbjorn Larsson, OM

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #120 on: 06/06/2014 01:26 PM »
Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?

No. NASA needed just 4 and 4+ is what it specified.

I'm trying to see if someone has asked SpaceX why the design choice, but came up blank. It is a major one. So it would be interesting to know what sets the limit, assuming they are maximizing the seats to cheapen travel for some customer cases as seems likely then. (And I think the competitors do something similar.)

It isn't safety, because the egress path(s) are at max capacity with 1 or 2 seats.

It isn't primarily mass, if I understood the reveal correct, they can take more mass as cargo. Also, it is a whole launch system, so they decide the up mass.

It may be seating, if the windows are essential for space tourism, because they single row the seats seemingly to have window view access. The lower floor fits only 3 seats that way.* [ http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/spacex-dragon-v2-elon-musks-seven-seater-manned-spacecraft-pictures-1450545 ]

It may be the life support system.

Next press meeting, maybe someone can ask if not already done and I missed it.

*If that is the case, I would criticize the companies (Bigelow?) that drove that design vs camera screens & more seats. But if so, SpaceX accepted the design driver.
« Last Edit: 06/06/2014 01:39 PM by Torbjorn Larsson, OM »

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #121 on: 06/06/2014 07:10 PM »
Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?
What would NASA do with these additional seats?
Bring all Astronauts home in one vehicle in case something happens on the ISS, maybe?
That seems like the obvious advantage, but it seems likely they wouldn't have those extra three seats in there at the cost of cargo.

Offline Joffan

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #122 on: 06/06/2014 07:36 PM »
Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?
What would NASA do with these additional seats?
Bring all Astronauts home in one vehicle in case something happens on the ISS, maybe?
That seems like the obvious advantage, but it seems likely they wouldn't have those extra three seats in there at the cost of cargo.
On the SpaceX vehicle, at least, the extra seats could easily be taken up once only to stow on the ISS and thereafter the space used for (light) cargo.
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Online Zed_Noir

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #123 on: 06/07/2014 05:22 PM »
Since DC and CST also have up to 7 seats, was it a demand of NASA?
What would NASA do with these additional seats?
Bring all Astronauts home in one vehicle in case something happens on the ISS, maybe?
That seems like the obvious advantage, but it seems likely they wouldn't have those extra three seats in there at the cost of cargo.
On the SpaceX vehicle, at least, the extra seats could easily be taken up once only to stow on the ISS and thereafter the space used for (light) cargo.

Re-installing the seats might not be practical for quick use once the Dragon is docked to the ISS..

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #124 on: 06/08/2014 01:04 AM »
I'm surprised nobody has brought up what seems to me the most obvious reason these commercial crew vehicles are designed to seat seven: because the Space Shuttle seated seven, and they were designed to replace the crew-carrying capability of the Shuttle.

Offline Mariusuiram

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #125 on: 06/08/2014 01:37 AM »
I'm surprised nobody has brought up what seems to me the most obvious reason these commercial crew vehicles are designed to seat seven: because the Space Shuttle seated seven, and they were designed to replace the crew-carrying capability of the Shuttle.

This seems realistic.

I would also imagine the 7 seat focus, even if NASA only needs 4, is PR/Marketing. Making sure that any new projects (like Bigelow) who are doing pencil math for some commercial space venture can get the cost per person for transport low enough.

In the speculative threads about tourism (cis-lunar or to a habitat) there is usually an assumption of a single pilot. My guess, just looking at airlines, and issues of redundancy, is that you will definitely need 2 trained crew, not 1. Not just redundancy incase the pilot is incapacitated, but I imagine there may be procedures that require 2 sets of eyes and you would want to avoid training the tourists to handle anything.

With 2 dedicated crew, a 7 seater still only brings up 5 people.

Offline AncientU

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #126 on: 06/08/2014 12:06 PM »
I'm surprised nobody has brought up what seems to me the most obvious reason these commercial crew vehicles are designed to seat seven: because the Space Shuttle seated seven, and they were designed to replace the crew-carrying capability of the Shuttle.

This seems realistic.

I would also imagine the 7 seat focus, even if NASA only needs 4, is PR/Marketing. Making sure that any new projects (like Bigelow) who are doing pencil math for some commercial space venture can get the cost per person for transport low enough.

In the speculative threads about tourism (cis-lunar or to a habitat) there is usually an assumption of a single pilot. My guess, just looking at airlines, and issues of redundancy, is that you will definitely need 2 trained crew, not 1. Not just redundancy incase the pilot is incapacitated, but I imagine there may be procedures that require 2 sets of eyes and you would want to avoid training the tourists to handle anything.

With 2 dedicated crew, a 7 seater still only brings up 5 people.

Maybe that's all that would fit in the available space?
Nah, too obvious.
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Offline mlindner

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #127 on: 06/08/2014 11:40 PM »
I'm surprised nobody has brought up what seems to me the most obvious reason these commercial crew vehicles are designed to seat seven: because the Space Shuttle seated seven, and they were designed to replace the crew-carrying capability of the Shuttle.

This seems realistic.

I would also imagine the 7 seat focus, even if NASA only needs 4, is PR/Marketing. Making sure that any new projects (like Bigelow) who are doing pencil math for some commercial space venture can get the cost per person for transport low enough.

In the speculative threads about tourism (cis-lunar or to a habitat) there is usually an assumption of a single pilot. My guess, just looking at airlines, and issues of redundancy, is that you will definitely need 2 trained crew, not 1. Not just redundancy incase the pilot is incapacitated, but I imagine there may be procedures that require 2 sets of eyes and you would want to avoid training the tourists to handle anything.

With 2 dedicated crew, a 7 seater still only brings up 5 people.

Volume of spacecraft / Volume of standard human tissues = # of people that can fit in spacecraft (assuming perfect flesh/volume packing)

Probably pretty cheap that way.
« Last Edit: 06/08/2014 11:41 PM by mlindner »
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Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #128 on: 06/08/2014 11:43 PM »

Volume of spacecraft / Volume of standard human tissues = # of people that can fit in spacecraft (assuming perfect flesh/volume packing)

Probably pretty cheap that way.

By that metric, the ISS can be occupied* by 12,610 people. Better get launching!


*assuming every cubic meter of pressurized volume is occupied, probably brought down to only several thousand when you take into account equipment
« Last Edit: 06/08/2014 11:45 PM by NovaSilisko »

Offline darkenfast

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #129 on: 06/09/2014 03:10 AM »
Assuming that Dragon V2 can carry the weight that Elon says it can, then four people will leave capacity for a nice chunk of cargo with three seats removed.  Size-wise, it seems to be the equivalent of a custom passenger van with seven "captain's chair" style seats and headroom.

Offline InfraNut2

I'm surprised nobody has brought up what seems to me the most obvious reason these commercial crew vehicles are designed to seat seven: because the Space Shuttle seated seven, and they were designed to replace the crew-carrying capability of the Shuttle.

This seems realistic.

I would also imagine the 7 seat focus, even if NASA only needs 4, is PR/Marketing. Making sure that any new projects (like Bigelow) who are doing pencil math for some commercial space venture can get the cost per person for transport low enough.

In the speculative threads about tourism (cis-lunar or to a habitat) there is usually an assumption of a single pilot. My guess, just looking at airlines, and issues of redundancy, is that you will definitely need 2 trained crew, not 1. Not just redundancy incase the pilot is incapacitated, but I imagine there may be procedures that require 2 sets of eyes and you would want to avoid training the tourists to handle anything.

With 2 dedicated crew, a 7 seater still only brings up 5 people.

First: NASA needed 4 seats for ISS and therefore specified 4+ for commercial crew. It was the CC contestants themselves that more or less independently decided that 7 was a more optimal number, presumably for market/economic reasons and given launcher limitations. But, thats not the main thing I wanted to say:

My guess about loss of revenue to accomodate pilots is a bit different. Here is why:

There are 2 pilots for airlines because even with autopilots, the planes cannot yet reliably fly themselves from takeoff to landing and in all relevant atmospheric/weather conditions. Therefore, there is not always a backup unless there is a second pilot that can take over.

Dragon V2 (and already V1) is designed to fly itself reliably and automatically with nominally only very minimal help from ground control. Additionally Ground control has deep insight and extensive control options in most off-nominal situations. This will be equivalent to having a primary pilot from a safety perspective, as soon as the system has been proved by ground testing, athmospheric+space test flights and a few early operational flights.

Therefore only one pilot is needed for adequate redundancy once the system is sufficiently tested. The pilot and vehicle automatic systems with ground control can back each other up. This is good enough because the risk of both an incapacitated pilot (or severe pilot interface failure) and severe automation-related failures (that is addressable by pilot intervention but not by mission control help or automatic recovery) occurring at the same time, will be a very tiny part of overall mission risks (unless the design is severely flawed).

When it comes to economics: When there are national space agency astronauts or for-hire astronauts or similar professionals involved, those would happily learn to pilot the spaceship, while their employers will pay for their trips. Excess seats on flights for NASA will likely be replaced with either cargo or spaceflight participants, but are expected to be paid for either way. For commercial space stations, they will probably have to rotate at least one astronaut/professional operating the station on each flight which again would give no lost revenue. Only for free-flier flights or very frequent short-stay flights to space hotels/stations will a not-paid-for pilot be needed. (BTW: It is also possible some of the spaceflight participants would agree to pilot training and certification, just for the bragging rights and adventure, since the emergency "pilot" training will be much shorter and less demanding than Soyuz training, maybe as little as the equivalent of a month of full-time training).

So to sum up the economics: IMHO: Except for the first few flights, just about all LEO flights will likely have at most 1 non-paying person on board and often none. So there will be relatively small revenue loss from non-paying flight participants.  ...Unless government forces excess human redundancy for non-rational reasons, of course...

(BTW: fully automatic spaceships without on-board human backup could also happen some time in the future, but that is probably only after the Dragon V2 and other contemporary systems have been replaced with a next generation of systems at least once).

 
« Last Edit: 06/11/2014 03:21 PM by InfraNut2 »

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Full Video of Elon Musk Q&A Session Post Dragon V2 Reveal
« Reply #131 on: 06/11/2014 07:54 PM »
At a "guess" I'm suspecting that the majority would be to and from orbit, not any particular "destination" as it were. While he might not expect a great increase in the number of "dedicated" satellite launches hes got to "see" an increased requirement for payload to LEO including space stations, cargo and people to get to the point that something like the MCT is "justified" in operation. Its a simple matter of the scales (of economy and operations) needed to support the activities he sees.
<snip>
The kicker in the mix is that unlike any other transportation system we've ever dealt with on Earth, space travel doesn't have any "pre-existing" transportation market/system to tap into with the promise of increased "efficiency" over the "old" system in order to fund itself. There are no pre-existing destinations that will be faster or more economic to "get-to," no pre-existing market of goods and materials that can be transported at "reduced" cost, nothing. The ONLY current customer is really NASA for cargo and personnel, and the ONLY current market is commercial satellite launch. Everything and anything beyond those currently is going to require some sort of "bootstrapping" program to PROVIDE the basis for commercial space flight as envisioned by Musk. Its a "do-or-die" situation in that the only way to get there from here is to TRY it and see if it works.
Your 2 comments fall together quite neatly. But I don't think he means LEO launches. (edit:… but he was saying 100s of Dragon V2 launches?)

That's what I got, and that would be directed to LEO...

Quote
On a related note, you say "space stationS". The old ideas of space stations had an industrial base (Mars/Moon/Asteroids) as part of their history, but the recent interest has approached them as a first step.
ie: Mars comes first, then space stations built with Mars materials.

Actually the "Old" idea is that LEO and Near-Earth space stations came FIRST before we even went to the Moon! The space stations (and reusable passenger/cargo rockets to build and service them) were the first step in an intergrated plan where we would build up infrastructure and "capability" in depth before we proceeded to the "next" step in the plan. Space Stations constructed using marterials and parts shipped up from Earth were proposed all the way back in the very first books on space flight. The use of off-Earth materials didn't show up until the mid-70s with the "Space Colony" suggestions. Currently we're back to putting Earth made "space stations" and/or "advanced space bases" in places like L1 or L2 to allow more efficent departures and arrivals for deep space missions and to get experiance with the same in a nearer to "interplanetary" environment.

Quote
Of course it was based on the premise that launch from Mars was far cheaper than launch from Earth, but perhaps that assumption will need to be revisited in the near future.

Moon actually, or asteroids. Mars launch for materials isn't really that much cheaper than getting materials from the asteroids, (and actually the deeper gravity well makes it somewhat worse) while getting materials for Cis-Lunar construction sourced from the Moon makes the most sense once you have the needed infrastructure.

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