Author Topic: Estimating the Reliability of a Soyuz Spacecraft Mission  (Read 2978 times)

Offline rdale

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http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20100014848_2010016172.pdf

Once the US Space Shuttle retires in 2010, the Russian Soyuz Launcher and Soyuz Spacecraft will comprise the only means for crew transportation to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The U.S. Government and NASA have contracted for crew transportation services to the ISS with Russia. The resulting implications for the US space program including issues such as astronaut safety must be carefully considered. Are the astronauts and cosmonauts safer on the Soyuz than the Space Shuttle system Is the Soyuz launch system more robust than the Space Shuttle Is it safer to continue to fly the 30 year old Shuttle fleet for crew transportation and cargo resupply than the Soyuz Should we extend the life of the Shuttle Program How does the development of the Orion/Ares crew transportation system affect these decisions The Soyuz launcher has been in operation for over 40 years. There have been only two loss of life incidents and two loss of mission incidents. Given that the most recent incident took place in 1983, how do we determine current reliability of the system Do failures of unmanned Soyuz rockets impact the reliability of the currently operational man-rated launcher Does the Soyuz exhibit characteristics that demonstrate reliability growth and how would that be reflected in future estimates of success NASA s next manned rocket and spacecraft development project is currently underway. Though the projects ultimate goal is to return to the Moon and then to Mars, the launch vehicle and spacecraft s first mission will be for crew transportation to and from the ISS. The reliability targets are currently several times higher than the Shuttle and possibly even the Soyuz. Can these targets be compared to the reliability of the Soyuz to determine whether they are realistic and achievable To help answer these questions this paper will explore how to estimate the reliability of the Soyuz Launcher/Spacecraft system, compare it to the Space Shuttle, and its potential impacts for the future of manned spaceflight. Specifically it will look at estimating the Loss of Mission (LOM) probability using historical data, reliability growth, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques

Offline Danderman

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"There has never been a liquid upper stage mounted on top of a solid first stage."

- page 12.

???

Offline edkyle99

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"There has never been a liquid upper stage mounted on top of a solid first stage."

- page 12.

???

Certainly not for a crewed launcher, but Athena and Pegasus have topped solid lower stages with a liquid upper stage.  Several solid ICBMs use or used liquid post-boost stages.  India's PSLV and GSLV use giant solid core stages topped by liquid stages.  (In PSLV's case, it goes solid-liquid-solid-liquid from bottom to top.)  Etc.

IMO

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 04/30/2010 11:28 pm by edkyle99 »

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